Mid-Michigan September 2015

Transcription

1 Metropolitan Statistical Area Mid-Michigan Jobless Rates Edge Downward Department of Technology, Management, and Budget Bureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives Mid-Michigan September 2015 Each of the four Mid-Michigan Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) recorded a slight decrease in jobless rates in September. For all metropolitan areas in Michigan, jobless rates decreased by an average of 0.4 percentage points, a decline which all Mid-Michigan MSAs were either equal or nearly equal to. These changes echo the 0.5 percentage point decline that occurred in the state as a whole in September. Jobless rates in the Mid-Michigan MSAs have also fallen over the year, down by an average of 1.6 percentage points, just below the Michigan drop of 1.9 percentage points. (Figure 1, Table 1) Figure 1: Metro Area Jobless Rate Changes, August-September Ann Arbor Battle Creek Bay City Detroit-Warren-Dearborn Flint Grand Rapids-Wyoming Jackson Kalamazoo-Portage Lansing-East Lansing Midland Monroe Muskegon Niles-Benton Harbor Saginaw While payroll jobs in many industries have declined over the month, seasonal increases in Government payroll jobs mostly due to the beginning of the new school year helped drive down unemployment and, consequently, jobless rates in all Mid- Michigan MSAs. The number of unemployed persons fell by an average of 375 across all four metro areas in September, led by a decrease of 800 unemployed over the month in the Flint MSA. Over-the-year changes showed some positive signs across the four metro areas. Although labor forces were down on average over the year across the MSAs, gains have been made in employment. The Saginaw MSA led in terms of percentage gains in employment, up 2.1 percent over the year, followed by the Flint metro area, up 1.5 percent. Employment rose by 2.0 percent in Michigan as a whole over the year. Northeast Michigan Counties Begin Seasonal Changes Northeast Michigan s eight counties began their seasonal contraction in September. In seven of the eight counties, labor forces had shrunk over the month, driving dropping jobless rates in six of the eight counties, down by an average of 0.4 percentage points. Alpena County was the only to register a lowered unemployment rate over the month due to increasing employment. Over the year, jobless rates in Northeast Michigan counties fell by an average of 2.0 percentage points. These changes in jobless rates were largely due to increasing employment over the year rather than a shrinking labor force. In the time since 2009, the year the Great Recession ended, both labor force and employment in Northeast Michigan have not yet fully recovered. Although employment has been on an upward trajectory since roughly the second half of 2013, labor forces in Northeast Michigan counties have been slower to recover. As of September, the labor force in the eight counties remains an average of 12.4% below the 2009 annual average. (Appendix 1) Kevin Doyle, Economic Analyst Department of Technology, Management, and Budget Bureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives doylek4@michigan.gov

2 Prosperity Regions Jobless Rates Mirror State Jobless rates in the Northeast, East, and East Central Michigan Prosperity regions also edged downward in September. These changes were mostly due to seasonal factors such as the end of summer work and the return of the school season. More notable changes occurred over the year in the three Prosperity Regions, when jobless rates fell by an average of 1.8 percentage points from last September and employment rose by an average of 1.6 percent. These changes follow closely to the Michigan over-the-year changes in employment and jobless rate. (Appendix 3) Payroll Jobs Reflect Back-to-School Season Payroll jobs increased by greater than one percent in September in all four of Mid-Michigan s metropolitan areas. The Midland MSA led in terms of over-the-month percentage growth, up 1.6 percent, of 600 jobs from August. Flint, meanwhile, gained the greatest number of nonfarm payroll jobs, adding 1,700 jobs, or 1.2 percent over the month. These changes outpaced nonfarm payroll jobs statewide, which edged upwards by 0.2 percent from August to September. Over the year, however, Mid-Michigan metro areas did not perform as well as Michigan as a whole. Total nonfarm payrolls in the state rose by 2.1 percent over the year, a stronger gain than the 0.4 percent growth in the Flint MSA and 0.3 percent decline in the Bay City metro area. (Table 4) Figure 2: Government Jobs, Flint MSA Sep Aug Change ,600 21,200 3, ,800 20,800 3, ,500 19,000 2, ,300 17,400 1, ,100 17,100 2,000 Most of the September gains in payroll jobs in the Flint MSA are attributable to a large increase in Local government employment, and consequently, the beginning of the new school year. Gains in this portion of Government contributed 1,600 of Government s 2,000 total increase over the month. Despite these seasonal gains, the Government sector in the Flint MSA remains near to its 10-year low of 17,100 jobs. Over the year, Health care and social assistance registered some of the metro area s largest gains, up 300 jobs (1.3%). Local government also drove a large portion of the Saginaw metro area gains in payroll jobs over the month. Increases in State government jobs contributed the remainder of Government job gains over the month; Federal government saw no change from August. These changes, similar to Flint s, are attributable to the return of student workers, instructors, and support staff alike to public schools in the area. Over the year, Education and health services gained 600 jobs, or 3.7 percent, in the MSA, but is not yet possible to know which subsector (Education or Health) contributed these gains. Figure 3: Government Jobs, Saginaw MSA Sep Aug Change ,000 11,200 1, ,300 11,300 1, ,300 10,400 1, ,500 9,900 1, ,100 9,600 1,500 Figure 4: Government Jobs, Bay City MSA Sep Aug Change ,900 5, ,000 5, ,700 5, ,800 5, ,600 5, Payroll jobs in the Bay City MSA experienced the same seasonal trends as the other metros in the region. Payroll jobs in Government rose by 600, or 12.0 percent, indicating a return of many jobs to public schools. Gains were also made in Manufacturing this month, where payroll jobs rose by 200, or 5.6 percent from August. Over the year, payroll job gains were recorded in Trade, transportation, and utilities, Professional and business services, and Educational and health services. These gains were offset by losses in other sectors, the largest of which in Manufacturing, down 300 jobs or 7.3 percent. 2

3 Table 1: Metropolitan Statistical Areas Change/Month Change/Year Flint MSA (Genesee County) Labor Force 180, , ,400-1, % % Employment 171, , , % 2, % Unemployment 9,000 9,800 12, % -3, % Jobless Rate 5.0% 5.4% 6.7% Saginaw MSA (Saginaw County) Labor Force 88,400 88,700 88, % % Employment 84,400 84,300 82, % 1, % Unemployment 4,100 4,400 5, % -1, % Jobless Rate 4.6% 4.9% 6.3% -1.7 Bay City MSA (Bay County) Labor Force 52,400 52,500 52, % % Employment 50,000 49,900 49, % % Unemployment 2,300 2,600 3, % % Jobless Rate 4.5% 4.9% 5.9% Midland MSA (Midland County) Labor Force 41,200 41,200 41, % % Employment 39,600 39,400 39, % % Unemployment 1,600 1,700 2, % % Jobless Rate 3.9% 4.2% 5.1% -1.2 Michigan Labor Force 4,743,000 4,771,000 4,745,000-28, % -2, % Employment 4,519,000 4,525,000 4,430,000-6, % 89, % Unemployment 224, , ,000-22, % -90, % Jobless Rate 4.7% 5.2% 6.6% By Place of Residence Not Seasonally Adjusted Rates Calculated with Unrounded Data 3

4 Table 2: Labor Market Areas Change/Month Change/Year Huron Labor Force 16,775 16,950 16, % -50 % Employment 16,100 16,200 15, % % Unemployment % % Jobless Rate 4.0% 4.5% 5.1% Lapeer Labor Force 39,525 39,800 39, % % Employment 37,075 37,150 36, % % Unemployment 2,450 2,650 3, % % Jobless Rate 6.2% 6.7% 8.5% Sanilac Labor Force 19,825 20,150 19, % 0 0.0% Employment 18,875 19,050 18, % % Unemployment 925 1,100 1, % % Jobless Rate 4.7% 5.4% 6.5% Shiawassee Labor Force 33,050 33,000 32, % % Employment 31,625 31,425 30, % % Unemployment 1,425 1,575 2, % % Jobless Rate 4.3% 4.8% 6.1% Tuscola Labor Force 25,075 25,000 24, % % Employment 23,825 23,600 23, % % Unemployment 1,250 1,375 1, % % Jobless Rate 5.0% 5.5% 6.8% By Place of Residence Not Seasonally Adjusted Rates Calculated with Unrounded Data 4

5 Table 3: Labor Market Areas (Continued) Arenac Change/Month Change/Year Labor Force 6,425 6,575 6, % % Employment 6,025 6,125 6, % % Unemployment % % Jobless Rate 6.2% 6.6% 8.0% Clare Labor Force 11,775 11,625 11, % % Employment 11,075 10,850 10, % % Unemployment % % Jobless Rate 6.0% 6.5% 7.8% Gladwin Labor Force 10,000 10,125 10, % % Employment 9,450 9,500 9, % % Unemployment % % Jobless Rate 5.5% 6.1% 7.5% Iosco Labor Force 10,400 10,625 10, % % Employment 9,850 10,000 9, % % Unemployment % % Jobless Rate 5.4% 5.8% 7.4% Ogemaw Labor Force 8,475 8,575 8, % % Employment 8,000 8,025 7, % % Unemployment % % Jobless Rate 5.8% 6.4% 7.5% Roscommon Labor Force 7,975 7,975 8, % % Employment 7,450 7,400 7, % % Unemployment % % Jobless Rate 6.4% 7.0% 8.5% By Place of Residence Not Seasonally Adjusted Rates Calculated with Unrounded Data 5

6 Table 4: Nonfarm Payroll Jobs Change/Month Change/Year Bay City MSA Total Nonfarm 37,400 37,000 37, % -100 % Goods Producing 5,100 4,900 5, % % Mining, Logging and Construction 1,300 1,300 1, % 0 0.0% Manufacturing 3,800 3,600 4, % % Service Providing 32,300 32,100 32, % % Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 8,100 8,200 7, % % Retail Trade 5,200 5,300 5, % 0 0.0% Information % 0 0.0% Financial Activities 1,200 1,300 1, % % Professional and Business Services 3,700 3,700 3, % % Educational and Health Services 6,900 7,000 6, % % Leisure and Hospitality 4,800 4,900 5, % % Other Services 1,500 1,500 1, % % Government 5,600 5,000 5, % % Flint MSA Total Nonfarm 141, , ,500 1, % % Goods Producing 17,000 17,400 17, % % Mining, Logging and Construction 4,600 4,800 4, % 0 0.0% Manufacturing 12,400 12,600 12, % % Service Providing 124, , ,200 2, % % Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 30,600 30,900 30, % % Retail Trade 20,300 20,400 20, % % Information 4,200 4,100 4, % % Financial Activities 6,300 6,400 6, % 0 0.0% Professional and Business Services 14,800 14,400 14, % % Educational and Health Services 28,000 28,100 27, % % Educational Services 4,000 4,100 3, % % Health Care and Social Assistance 24,000 24,000 23, % % Leisure and Hospitality 15,300 15,200 15, % % Other Services 5,700 5,700 5, % % Government 19,100 17,100 19,400 2, % % Saginaw MSA Total Nonfarm 89,300 88,100 88,000 1, % 1, % Goods Producing 15,400 15,400 14, % % Mining, Logging and Construction 3,100 3,100 3, % % Manufacturing 12,300 12,300 11, % % Service Providing 73,900 72,700 73,300 1, % % Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 16,700 17,100 16, % % Retail Trade 12,100 12,400 12, % 0 0.0% Information 1,300 1,300 1, % 0 0.0% Financial Activities 3,700 3,700 3, % 0 0.0% Professional and Business Services 11,400 11,200 11, % 0 0.0% Educational and Health Services 16,700 16,600 16, % % Leisure and Hospitality 9,400 9,600 9, % 0 0.0% Other Services 3,600 3,600 3, % % Government 11,100 9,600 11,300 1, % % Midland MSA Total Nonfarm 38,400 37,800 38, % 0 0.0% Goods Producing 8,800 8,900 8, % 0 0.0% Service Providing 29,600 28,900 29, % 0 0.0% Government 3,200 2,600 3, % 0 0.0% 6

7 Appendix 1: Counties of Northeast Michigan Change/Month Change/Year Sep-15* Aug-15 Sep-14 # % # Alcona Labor Force 3,900 3,975 3, % 0 0.0% Employment 3,675 3,700 3, % % Unemployment % % Jobless Rate 5.9% 6.4% 7.9% Alpena Labor Force 13,750 13,525 13, % % Employment 13,100 12,800 12, % % Unemployment % % Jobless Rate 4.7% 5.2% 6.2% Cheboygan Labor Force 11,050 11,600 10, % % Employment 10,650 11,175 10, % % Unemployment % % Jobless Rate 3.5% 3.8% 4.8% -1.3 Crawford Labor Force 5,375 5,475 5, % % Employment 5,075 5,125 5, % % Unemployment % % Jobless Rate 5.8% 6.1% 7.2% -1.4 Montmorency Labor Force 3,150 3,225 3, % % Employment 2,950 2,975 2, % % Unemployment % % Jobless Rate 6.8% 7.3% 9.9% Oscoda Labor Force 2,900 2,950 2, % % Employment 2,725 2,750 2, % % Unemployment % % Jobless Rate 6.5% 7.0% 9.5% Otsego Labor Force 11,225 11,550 11, % 0 0.0% Employment 10,700 10,975 10, % % Unemployment % % Jobless Rate 4.6% 4.9% 6.2% -1.6 Presque Isle Labor Force 5,325 5,475 5, % % Employment 4,975 5,075 4, % % Unemployment % % Jobless Rate 6.7% 7.3% 8.9% By Place of Residence / Not Seasonally Adjusted / Rates Calculated with Unrounded Data / 7

8 Appendix 2: Michigan Works! Areas Genesee/Shiawassee Michigan Works! Change/Month Change/Year Labor Force 213, , ,300-1, % % Employment 203, , , % 3, % Unemployment 10,400 11,400 14,200-1, % -3, % Jobless Rate 4.9% 5.3% 6.6% Great Lakes Bay Michigan Works! Labor Force 182, , , % % Employment 174, , , % 2, % Unemployment 8,000 8,700 10, % -2, % Jobless Rate 4.4% 4.8% 5.9% ThumbWorks! Labor Force 101, , , % -300 % Employment 95,900 96,000 94, % 1, % Unemployment 5,300 5,900 7, % -1, % Jobless Rate 5.3% 5.8% 7.1% Michigan Works! Northeast Consortium Labor Force 56,700 57,700 56,500-1, % % Employment 53,800 54,600 52, % 1, % Unemployment 2,800 3,100 3, % -1, % Jobless Rate 5.0% 5.4% 6.8% Michigan Works! Region 7B Labor Force 55,100 55,500 55, % % Employment 51,800 51,900 51, % % Unemployment 3,200 3,500 4, % -1, % Jobless Rate 5.8% 6.4% 7.8% By Place of Residence Not Seasonally Adjusted Rates Calculated with Unrounded Data 8

9 Appendix 3: Prosperity Regions Change/Month Change/Year 3 - Northeast Prosperity Region Labor Force 83,500 84,900 83,600-1, % % Employment 79,100 80,000 77, % 1, % Unemployment 4,400 4,900 5, % -1, % Jobless Rate 5.3% 5.7% 7.1% East Central Michigan Prosperity Region Labor Force 263, , , % -700 % Employment 251, , , % 3, % Unemployment 11,900 12,900 15,800-1, % -3, % Jobless Rate 4.5% 4.9% 6.0% East Michigan Prosperity Region Labor Force 387, , ,500-2, % -1, % Employment 367, , , % 6, % Unemployment 20,200 22,100 28,000-1, % -7, % Jobless Rate 5.2% 5.7% 7.2% By Place of Residence Not Seasonally Adjusted Rates Calculated with Unrounded Data 9

10 Appendix 4: Michigan Counties Ranked by Jobless Rate, September Mackinac County Alpena County Ottawa County Benzie County Clinton County Manistee County Kent County Missaukee County Allegan County Menominee County Washtenaw County Marquette County Barry County Muskegon County Cheboygan County Luce County Grand Traverse County Mecosta County Eaton County Osceola County Kalamazoo County Tuscola County Leelanau County Genesee County Ionia County Oceana County St. Joseph County Keweenaw County Ingham County Wexford County Monroe County Delta County Isabella County Antrim County Midland County Iron County Huron County Iosco County Charlevoix County Macomb County Cass County Gladwin County Lenawee County Chippewa County Branch County Kalkaska County Calhoun County Crawford County Newaygo County Ogemaw County Dickinson County Alcona County Mason County Alger County Shiawassee County Clare County Berrien County Gogebic County Livingston County Arenac County Montcalm County Lapeer County Gratiot County St. Clair County Hillsdale County Baraga County Jackson County Roscommon County Emmet County Lake County Houghton County Oscoda County Bay County Ontonagon County Oakland County Presque Isle County Otsego County Wayne County Van Buren County Montmorency County Saginaw County Schoolcraft County Sanilac County

11 For additional information or other labor market analysis, please contact Kevin Doyle, Economic Analyst with the Michigan Department of Technology, Management, & Budget, Bureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives at or Please visit our website at 11