Hong Kong Population and Demographic Trend

Transcription

1 Hong Kong Population and Demographic Trend Commissioner for Census and Statistics Frederick W. H. HO Website: June

2 Year 1961 Population Hong Kong Population (reference time-point : mid-year) Annual growth rate 3.4% The elderly (65+) Proportion of the elderly 3.2% Children (0-14) Proportion of children 40.5% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 2

3 Population Pyramid Age Group Male Thousand persons Population size: Female

4 Age Group Population Pyramid Male Thousand persons Population size: Female

5 Age Group Population Pyramid Male Thousand persons Population size: Female

6 Population Projections and the ageing of the population Year Population The elderly (65+) Proportion of the elderly Children (0-14) Proportion of children % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Note : 2003-based projections; released in June

7 7 Age Group Population Pyramid 2020 Population size: Male Female Thousand persons

8 Population Pyramid Age Group Population size: Male Female Thousand persons

9 Dependency Ratio Definition (1) Child Dependency Ratio refers to the number of persons aged under 15 per persons aged between 15 and 64. (2) Elderly Dependency Ratio refers to the number of persons aged 65 and over per persons aged between 15 and 64. (3) Overall Dependency Ratio refers to the number of persons aged under 15 and those aged 65 and over per persons aged between 15 and 64. 9

10 Dependency Ratio Year Child Elderly Overall

11 Birth Statistics [birth rate] Year Births Crude birth rate Year Births Crude birth rate (per population) (per population)

12 Fertility Statistics Year Age-specific Fertility Rates (Number of live births per women of the age group during the year) Total Fertility Rate * * * * * * * * * Less than 0.5.

13 Fertility Statistics Definition: Total fertility rate refers to the average number of children that would be born alive to women during their lifetime if they were to pass through their childbearing ages experiencing the age specific fertility rates prevailing in a given year. The calculation of total fertility rate is illustrated in the example below : Total fertility rate in 2000 = fertility rate [aged 15-19] x 5 + fertility rate [aged 20-24] x 5 + fertility rate [aged 25-29] x 5 + fertility rate [aged 30-34] x 5 + fertility rate [aged 35-39] x 5 + fertility rate [aged 40-44] x 5 + fertility rate [aged 45-49] x 5 = 5 x x x x x x x 5 = Notes (1) : x 5 because the width of each age group is 5 years. (2) : The calculation is based on un-rounded age specific fertility rates.

14 Death Statistics [death rate] 14 Year Deaths Crude death rate (per population) # # Provisional figures

15 Expectation of Life at Birth Definition: Expectation of life at birth refers to the number of years of life that a person born in a given year is expected to live if he/she were subject to the prevalent mortality conditions as reflected by the set of age-sex specific mortality rates for that year. Year Male 67.8 years 72.3 years 75.2 years 78.4 years 78.6 years Female 75.3 years 78.5 years 80.7 years 84.6 years 84.5 years years 84.3 years 2004 # 78.6 years 84.6 years 15 # Provisional figures

16 Expectation of Life at Selected Ages Years Year Male Female # # Provisional figures 16

17 The Hong Kong Resident Population (HKRP) Usual Residents (UR) - Majority of the time residing in Hong Kong Mobile Residents (MR) - Minority of the time (but a considerable amount of time) residing in Hong Kong 17

18 Analysis of Hong Kong Resident Population (HKRP) into Usual Residents (UR) and Mobile Residents (MR) Year HKRP UR MR

19 Migration flows Net movement of Hong Kong Non-permanent Residents other than legal entrants from the mainland of China (net change from visitor status to resident status is included) (a) net flow of foreign domestic helpers; (b) net flow of imported workers; and (c) other net movement. 19 Legal entrants from the mainland of China + + Deaths + Births Usual Residents Hong Kong Resident Population (comprising Usual Residents and Mobile Residents) Mobile Residents + + Persons NOT in the HK Resident Population Persons NOT in the Hong Kong Resident Population

20 Statistics on Arrival of One-way Permit Holders Year Number Daily average Year Number Daily average

21 One-way Permit Holders by Age and Sex, 2004 Age group Male Female Both sexes and over Total

22 2004 Marriage Statistics (1) Marriages registered in Hong Kong Of whom : both bridegrooms and brides are Hong Kong residents (2) Cross-boundary marriages Successful applicants of CAMR Marriages registered in HK # Total Males from HK (Brides from the Mainland) Females from HK (Bridegrooms from the Mainland) # Provisional figures Note : CAMR = Certificate of Absence of Marriage Records 22

23 Divorce Statistics Year Number of divorce decrees

24 Seasonal indices for births, deaths and marriages Month January February March April May June July August September October November December Births Seasonal index Deaths Marriages Based on the results of X11 ARIMA using data from 1978 to