Reminder: Homework #1 is due on Tuesday by 5pm.
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1 Reminder: Homework #1 is due on Tuesday by 5pm.
2 Class Survey Please answer this survey question and then pass the sheet to either aisle.
3 Political Science 15 Lecture 4: Experiments
4 Example: Framing Experiment That class survey was actually an experiment. One version of the survey says (A) 200 saved, (B) 1/3 chance that 600 saved. The other version says (A) 400 die, (B) 2/3 chance 600 die. A and B are equivalent in both versions. Does asking the question in different ways lead to different answers? Past work: 78% prefer 200 saved, only 22% prefer 400 die.
5 A Standard Experimental Design Random assignment Treatment Treatment group Control group Treatment outcome Control outcome The difference between the treatment and control outcomes is the treatment effect.
6 Experimental Designs The previous diagram shows a posttest experimental design. The classic experimental design tests subjects on the dependent variable before and after the treatment. Useful for measuring change over time. A multiple-group design creates more than one treatment group. Useful for testing different levels of the treatment.
7 Characteristics of Experiments Treatment and Control Groups: One group is exposed to some treatment, the other is not. Randomization: Subjects are assigned to the treatment and control groups randomly. This helps rule out alternative explanations. Control over the independent variable: The researcher manipulates the treatment (the independent variable) directly.
8 Internal vs. External Validity Internal Validity: The study is properly set up to determine if the independent variable has a causal effect on the dependent variable. External Validity: The results of the study can be generalized to the real world. We will usually face a tradeoff between internal and external validity in our research designs. Experiments are high on internal validity, low on external validity. Randomization and standardization are powerful!
9 Threats to Internal Validity History: Something uncontrolled happens between the treatment and the measurement of the dependent variable. Maturation: The subjects are changing over time. Changes between the treatment and measuring the dependent variable. Testing: The experiment itself might change behavior. Demand characteristics: Subjects learn or try to guess what the experiment is about, and change their behavior.
10 Threats to External Validity Testing interaction effects (the Hawthorne effect ): People change their behavior because they are being observed. Unrepresentative subjects: Is a class of undergraduate students representative of all voters? Spurious measures: The treatment only works in the experimental setting. Treatment is applied in a way we wouldn t see in the real world.
11 Ethics in Experiments The infamous Stanford Prison Experiment. Most universities now have human subjects committees to review experiments. Is deception in experiments permissible? Economists versus psychologists.
12 Types of Social Science Experiments Laboratory Experiments: Takes place in a controlled setting (a lab, classroom, etc.). Good control over the experiment, but less obvious ties to the real world. Field Experiments: Takes place in the real world. More obvious tie to situations we care about, but less experimental control.
13 Experiment Example #1 (Iyengar and Kinder) Laboratory experiments with 1000 people recruited in newspapers. Control group watched regular newscast, treatment group watched altered newscast with extra story on an issue. Treatment group more likely to rate the treatment issue most important in a survey a week later.
14 Experiment Example #2 (Gerber and Green) Field experiment in New Haven, CT. Flyers reminding people to vote delivered to randomly selected homes. Control group received no flyers. Treatment group (people in homes that received flyers) more likely to vote than people in the control group.
15 Experiment Example #3 (New York City) NYC randomly selected 2500 low-income families to receive cash incentives for meeting certain criteria (child s school attendance, medical checkups, looking for job, etc.) Control group of 2500 low-income families will be tracked, but not offered assistance. Testing to see if bonuses for smart decisions help alleviate poverty. This and similar programs (Bolsa Familia) seem to reduce some of the negative effects of poverty.
16 Natural Experiments Observing an experiment run by nature. In a controlled randomized experiment (a true experiment) we have: Treatment and control groups Randomization Control over the treatment In a natural experiment we have: Treatment and control groups As-if randomization No control over the treatment
17 As-if Random Assignment Subjects do not self-select into treatment and control groups. Assignment to treatment and control groups is plausibly uncorrelated with alternative explanations. Lower on internal validity than if we had truly random assignment.
18 Natural Experiment Example #1: (John Snow and Cholera in London) Two water companies serve the same neighborhood. Next door houses can have different water sources ( as-if random assignment). One company draws from a clean source (control), the other from a polluted source (treatment). Rate of cholera deaths 10 times higher in treatment group (treatment effect).
19 Natural Experiment Example #2: (Anti-Communism and reception of West German TV broadcasts in East Germany) Local geography determines if East German neighborhoods can receive West German TV signals ( as-if random assignment). Some neighborhoods are blocked (control), some are not (treatment). People with access to West German TV turn out to be no more anti-communist that those without access (treatment effect).
20 Natural Experiment Example #3: (Voting in the 2003 California Recall Election) Polling places in LA County consolidated from 5,231 to 1,885 ( as-if random assignment ). Polling place the same as 2002 (control), or changed (treatment). Changing the polling place reduces the probability of voting by 12% (treatment effect).
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