Public Opinion Survey Residents of Ukraine

Transcription

1 Public Opinion Survey Residents of Ukraine April 3-12, 2014 International Republican Institute

2 Detailed Methodology The survey was conducted by the public opinion and market research company Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization on behalf of the International Republican Institute. The field work was carried out by Rating Group Ukraine. Data was collected throughout Ukraine April 3 12, 2014, through face-to-face interviews at respondents home. Due to Russia s occupation of the peninsula, resident s of Crimea were unable to be included in this poll. The sample consisted of 1,200 permanent residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older and eligible to vote. It is representative for the general population by age, gender, education, region and size of the settlement. Multistage probability sampling method was used with the random route and next birthday respondent s selection procedures. Stage one: 25 official administrative regions of Ukraine were defined (24 regions of Ukraine and Kyiv). All regions of Ukraine were surveyed except Crimea. Stage two: selection of the settlements - towns and villages. Towns were grouped into subtypes according to the size: City more than one million residents City 500, ,000 residents City 100, ,000 residents City 50,000-99,000 residents City to 50,000 residents Village Settlements were selected at random. The number of selected settlements in each region was proportional to the share of population living in a particular type of the settlement in each region. Stage three: primary sampling units were described. The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 percent. Response rate was 65 percent. Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. The survey was funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development. 2

3 International Republican Institute Opposition to Russian Military Intervention Strong in all Regions

4 Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army into Ukraine under the pretext of protecting Russianspeaking citizens? Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/refused to answer April % 12% 7 6% March % 9% 72% 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 4

5 Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army into Ukraine under the pretext of protecting Russianspeaking citizens? Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/refused to answer West 5% 92% 2% 2% Center 10% 8 2% South 5% % East % 12% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 5

6 Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army into Ukraine under the pretext of protecting Russianspeaking citizens? By age and gender Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/refused to answer % % % 12% 7 Male 6% 1 7 6% Female 1 7 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 6

7 Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army into Ukraine under the pretext of protecting Russianspeaking citizens? Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/refused to answer Ukrainianspeaking citizens 2% 10% 82% Russian-speaking citizens 9% 10% 16% 52% 1 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 7

8 Is it necessary for the Russian military to come into eastern and/or southern Ukraine to protect the Russian speakers and ethnic Russians? 5% 12% Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/refused to answer 76% 8

9 Is it necessary for the Russian military to come into eastern and/or southern Ukraine to protect the Russian speakers and ethnic Russians? Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/refused to answer West 9 Center 8 2% South 1 7 9% East 10% 2 52% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 9

10 Is it necessary for the Russian military to come into eastern and/or southern Ukraine to protect the Russian speakers and ethnic Russians? Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/refused to answer Ukrainian-speaking citizens 2% 9% 85% Russian-speaking citizens 19% 5 1 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 10

11 How do you evaluate Russia s actions in Crimea? In your opinion, are they aimed at Invasion and occupation of independent Ukraine 5 55% Threat to new Ukrainian political leaders 15% 1 Protection of Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine 9% 1 Response to the new Crimea leaders asking for help Protection of Russian military base in Sevastopol 5% March 2014 April 2014 Other Don't know/refused to answer 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 11

12 International Republican Institute Ukraine Should Remain a United Country

13 In you opinion, should Ukraine? Remain a unitary country Become a federal country Other Remain a unitary country, but without Crimea Be divided into several countries Difficult to answer/no answer April % 1 2% March % 1 10% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 13

14 In you opinion, should Ukraine? Remain a unitary country Become a federal country Other Remain a unitary country, but without Crimea Be divided into several countries Difficult to answer/no answer West 89% 2% Center 7 1 5% South 5 26% 2% 2% 9% East 40% 9% 35% 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 14

15 Do you support the idea of replacing oblast and rayon state administration with executive committees which would be appointed by the oblast and rayon councils? 29% 2 Fully support Rather support Rather don't support Totally don't support 1 25% Don't know/refused to answer 9% 15

16 In your opinion, what should be the status of Crimea? Autonomous republic within Ukraine Should become part of Russia Should become an independent state Other Crimean-Tatar autonomous republic within Ukraine Become an oblast of Ukraine Should become part of Turkey Don't know/refused to answer April % 20% 1 10% 2% March % 1 1 5% 9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 16

17 International Republican Institute Voter Enthusiasm for Election High

18 Are you going to vote in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/refused to answer April % 29% 2% 10% March % 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 18

19 Are you going to vote in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/refused to answer West 7 1 5% Center 5 3 5% 2% South 29% 3 25% 10% East 4 32% 1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 19

20 Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? All respondents; First choice Petro Poroshenko Yuliya Tymoshenko Serhiy Tihipko Mykhaylo Dobkin Oleh Lyashko Petro Symonenko Anatoliy Hrytsenko Olha Bohomolets Oleh Tyahnybok Dmytro Yarosh Nataliya Korolevska Other Against all I would not vote Difficult to answer/don t know 6% 5% % 29% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 20

21 Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? Likely voters, n=1,005; First choice Petro Poroshenko 3 Yuliya Tymoshenko 15% Serhiy Tihipko Mykhaylo Dobkin Oleh Lyashko Petro Symonenko 6% 5% 5% Anatoliy Hrytsenko Olha Bohomolets Oleh Tyahnybok Dmytro Yarosh Nataliya Korolevska Other Against all 2% Difficult to answer/don t know 1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 21

22 Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? All respondents, Second choice Petro Poroshenko Yuliya Tymoshenko Anatoliy Hrytsenko Serhiy Tihipko Oleh Lyashko Olha Bohomolets Mykhaylo Dobkin Oleh Tyahnybok Petro Symonenko Dmytro Yarosh Nataliya Korolevska Yuriy Boyko Other Against all I would not vote Difficult to answer/don t know 5% 2% 1 15% 26% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 22

23 If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, for whom would you vote? Petro Poroshenko Yuliya Tymoshenko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/don t know 4 15% 2 12% 1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 23

24 If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, for whom would you vote? Petro Poroshenko Mykhaylo Dobkin Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/don t know 5 12% 1 12% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 24

25 If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, for whom would you vote? Petro Poroshenko Serhiy Tihipko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/don t know 50% % 1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 25

26 If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, for whom would you vote? Yuliya Tymoshenko Serhiy Tihipko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/don t know % 1 1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 26

27 If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, for whom would you vote? Yuliya Tymoshenko Mykhaylo Dobkin Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/don t know 3 12% % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 27

28 In your opinion, will Russia attempt to disrupt or discredit the upcoming presidential election in Ukraine? 1 Definitely yes 12% 1 3 Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/refused to answer 2 28

29 In your opinion, will the next presidential election be? Absolutely free and fair Rather free and fair Rather not free and fair Absolutely not free and fair Don't know/refused to answer April % 16% 1 March % 1 February % 35% 22% 19% September % 1 39% 26% 16% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 29

30 International Republican Institute Confidence in the Government Holds

31 Do you approve or disapprove of the job acting President Oleksandr Turchynov is doing? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know/refused to answer April % 19% 2 1 March % 3 20% 2 1 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 31

32 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine under Prime Minister Yatsenyuk is doing? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know/refused to answer April % 36% 16% 2 March % % 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 32

33 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Parliament of Ukraine is doing? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know/refused to answer April % % 1 March % % 1 February % 1 30% 50% September % 35% 45% 9% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 33

34 How would you evaluate the efforts of the new authorities in Ukraine to secure the territorial integrity of Ukraine? They do everything 1 that can be done 2 They do part of what can be done 29% They do very little of what can be done Total inactivity 2 Difficult to answer/no answer 34

35 What is your opinion about each of these members of the Ukrainian government? Favorable Unfavorable Have not heard the name Don't know/no answer Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk 5 40% 6% Acting President Oleksandr Turchynov 4 4 9% Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Andriy Parubiy Minister of Internal Affairs Arsen Avakov 30% 5 5% 1 Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs Andriy Deshchytsia 26% 2 36% 15% First Deputy Prime Minister Vitaliy Yarema 26% 30% 2 1 Acting Minister of Defense Mykhaylo Koval Minister of Healthcare Oleh Musiy 19% 20% 4 1 Deputy Prime Minister Volodymyr Hroisman 19% 2 45% 15% Minister of Economic Development Pavlo Sheremeta 1 22% 4 16% Minister of Education and Science Serhiy Kvit 16% Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Sych % 1 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 35

36 What is your opinion about each of these Ukrainian politicians and civic activists? Favorable Unfavorable Have not heard the name Don't know/no answer Petro Poroshenko 6 30% 6% Olha Bohomolets 60% 2 6% 1 Anatoliy Hrytsenko 50% 32% 6% 12% Vitaliy Klychko 50% 45% 5% Yuriy Lutsenko 40% 5 Yuliya Tymoshenko 3 59% Lesya Orobets 32% 26% 30% 12% Oleh Tyahnybok 30% 65% 5% Dmytro Yarosh 25% 59% 1 Serhiy Tihipko 19% 7 Mykhaylo Dobkin 15% 75% Petro Symonenko 12% 82% 6% Vasyl Hatsko 9% 16% 66% 9% Hanna Hopko 1 7 Viktor Yanukovych 92% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 36

37 International Republican Institute Majority Want Closer Ties to Europe

38 If Ukraine was able to enter only one international economic union, should it be with? European Union Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan Other Don't know/no answer April % 1 March % 2 6% 1 February % 9% 1 September % 3 5% 16% May % 3 5% 1 August % 42% 6% 20% May % 1 March % 4 1 November % 40% 15% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 38

39 If Ukraine was able to enter only one international economic union, should it be with? European Union Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan Other Don't know/no answer West 82% 2% 12% Center 69% 10% 9% 12% South 2 32% 19% 2 East % 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 39

40 If a referendum was held today on Ukraine joining the European Union, how would you vote? Would vote for Ukraine to join the European Union Would not vote Would vote against Ukraine joining the European Union Don't know/refused to answer April March % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 40

41 If Ukraine was able to enter only one international economic union, should it be with? Would vote for Ukraine to join the European Union Would not vote Would vote against Ukraine joining the European Union Don't know/refused to answer West 8 10% 2% 5% Center 70% 1 9% South % 15% East 2 59% 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 41

42 If a referendum was held today on Ukraine joining the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, how would you vote? Would vote for Ukraine to join the Customs Union Would not vote Would vote against Ukraine joining the Customs Union Don't know/refused to answer April % 10% March % 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 42

43 If a referendum was held today on Ukraine joining the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, how would you vote? Would vote for Ukraine to join the Customs Union Would not vote Would vote against Ukraine joining the Customs Union Don't know/refused to answer West 82% Center 9% 75% 9% South 3 35% 16% 1 East 5 29% 9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 43

44 International Republican Institute Parliamentary Elections

45 Do you think that early parliamentary elections should be carried out in the near future? Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/refused to answer April % 9% 1 March % 12% 12% 1 February % 1 30% 50% September % 35% 45% 9% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 45

46 If early parliamentary elections were announced today, would you vote? Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/refused to answer April % 32% 1 March % 3 5% 12% February % 10% 6% September % 5% May % 19% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 46

47 If parliamentary elections were held today, which political party would you vote for? Solidarnist (P. Poroshenko) Batkivshchyna (Y. Tymoshenko) Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform (UDAR) (V. Klychko) Party of Regions 9% 16% 15% Svoboda (O. Tyahnybok) Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (O. Lyashko) Communist Party (P. Symonenko) 5% 5% Pravyi Sector (D. Yarosh) Ukraine-Forward! (N. Korolevska) Other I would not vote 1 Don't know/refused to answer 20% 0% 10% 20% 30% 47

48 In your opinion, will the next parliamentary elections be? Absolutely free and fair Rather free and fair Rather not free and fair Absolutely not free and fair Don't know/refused to answer April % 3 22% 16% 15% March % 16% 1 February % 36% 22% 1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 48

49 International Republican Institute Mood of Ukraine

50 Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction or wrong direction? 80% Right direction Wrong direction Don't know, no answer 70% 60% % 69% % 5 52% 4 40% 30% 20% 10% 20% 16% % 1 15% 15% 30% % November 2011 March 2012 May 2012 August 2012 May 2013 September 2013 February 2014 March 2014 April

51 Over the last 12 months, the financial situation of your household has Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know/no answer April % March % 29% 1 February % September % 4 30% 1 2% May % 30% 1 August % 5% May % 45% 30% 1 March % 39% 3 1 2% November % 3 36% 1 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 51

52 In the next 12 months, do you expect the economic situation in Ukraine will Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same Worsen somewhat Worsen a lot Don't know/no answer April % 1 26% 4 March % 26% 35% 1 February % 20% % September % 12% 2 29% 1 1 May % 12% 12% August % % May % 26% 1 1 March % 32% 15% 12% November % 32% 1 1 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 52

53 International Republican Institute Views on Foreign Countries

54 How do you perceive the level of support for Ukraine from the following countries during the Crimea crisis? Supportive Neutral Not supportive Don't know/refused to answer Poland 5 29% 12% European Union 49% 30% 1 United States 45% 3 1 Germany 4 35% 1 Lithuania 42% Canada % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 54

55 International Republican Institute Demographics

56 OCCUPATION EDUCATION LANGUAGE SPOKEN AT HOME AGE GENDER Demographics Male Female years years 50 years and older Ukrainian Russian Other Secondary or lower Vocational Higher Blue collar Farmer White collar Higher or medium executive Retired (not working) Student Housewife Unemployed Other 9% 22% 20% 2 35% 30% 32% 36% 32% 3 45% 4 55% 69% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 56

57 REGIONS SETTLEMENT TYPE SITUATION OF FAMILY RELIGION Demographics Orthodox Greek Catholic Other Atheist Believe in God but don't belong to any religion Bad Average Good No answer City with more than 1 million City with thousand City with thousand City with thousand Up to 50 thousand Rural area West Center South East % 22% 19% 3 30% 29% % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 57

58 Demographics Due to Russia s occupation of the peninsula, resident s of Crimea were unable to be included in this poll. 58

59 International Republican Institute (202)