MOROCCAN AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY FACT PACK

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1 MOROCCAN AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY FACT PACK BUSINESS SWEDEN, SEPTEMBER 2016

2 With its strategic geographical location and competitive labour market Morocco s vehicle production capacity has grown to become the largest in the region. Even though the Moroccan economy is set to slow down in 2016, the vehicle sales is still expected to increase with 8 %, making Morocco the fastest growing domestic market for vehicles across North Africa,. The slowdown of the economy could potentially hamper the growth of the demand, but higher wages and lower interest rates can be enough to keep the growth up in the short-term, as can the low percentage of the population owning a passenger car in the long-term. MALAK SEKKAT Associate , malak.sekkat@business-sweden.se

3 MOROCCAN AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY We are in a perfect location at the gates of Europe, - Jean-François Gal, director of Renault factory in northern Morocco OVERVIEW The base for Morocco s development towards a modern society, with increased openness, democracy and a more modern state of law, began in 2011 when a new constitution was adopted. This has had effect, and in 2014 Morocco became the third-largest recipient of foreign investment in Africa. The country has maintained a stable macro-economic environment has had an average of 4.4% of GDP growth over the past 15 years. The government has, since the new constitution was adopted, continued to show their strong will to make Morocco attractive for foreign investors. In the 2016 Budget Law initiatives efforts were made to solidify the tax base, rein in expenditures and implement a pension reform in order to strengthen the economical sustainability. This in combination with availability of skilled workers at low wage rates and a developed infrastructure has contributed to creating a macroeconomic framework more sustainable than most in the region. The Moroccan economy is however not yet diversified enough and as a consequence of their dependency on rain-fed agriculture Morocco experienced a sharp deceleration, with a GDP growth expected to be below 2%, during 2016, due to severe drought. Although the economy in general is slowing down the growth of the vehicle sector is continuing with retained strength. The number of produced units is forecasted to reach 0.31 million in 2016, which would mean an annual growth of 16 %. If the market is to meet the expectation, Morocco will be the best performing vehicle market in North Africa in FACT PACK BUSINESS SWEDEN 3

4 MACRO-ECONOMIC ASPECTS DIMENSIONS PERFORMANCE EXPLANATION Fiscal Budget Fiscal Budget Inflation Inflation Exchange Exchange Rate Rates Debt Taxes Trade Balance FDI High fiscal deficit, although since 2013 efforts have been made to decrease it As a result of restraint in investment expenditures and improvement of tax collection the fiscal deficit decreased from 7.2 % of GDP in 2012 to 4.3 % of GDP in Goal to decrease the deficit below 3% by 2017 Has been quite stable around 2 % in the last 6 years 1.45% on average between 2008 to 2015 As a step towards greater flexibility the central bank reduced the euro s weighting in the currency basket in April, to 60 percent from 80 percent, while raising the US dollar s weighting to 40 percent from 20 percent According to the Central Bank Morocco is aiming to introduce a flexible exchange rate system in the early part of 2017 The external debt stock (% of GNI) has decreased steadily from 1985 up until 2008 when the trend turned. The external debt stock was 41.1% in Crisis in Euro zone, Arab spring and adverse weather has forced Morocco to borrow to cover its deficit Tax revenues has increased from 23.6% of GDP in 2000 to 28.5% of GDP in 2014 Main taxes are income (maximum rate 38%), corporate (30%) and VAT (20%) The trade balance was -12.3% of GDP in 2014 The current account deficit narrowed to - 6 % in 2014 Should continue to decline in the medium term as a consequence of amplified domestic production and lower energy imports. The current account deficit was partly financed by the resilient capital account surplus, including substantial FDI flows In 2014, Morocco became the third-largest recipient of foreign investment in Africa In 2015, Morocco attracted 3.6 billion EUR in FDI 4 BUSINESS SWEDEN FACT PACK

5 MARKET INITATIVES The main auto manufacturer in Morocco, Renault, is starting to get more competition as other vehicle brands are starting to look to take advantage of Morocco s strategic geographical position and competitive labour situation. For instance, in 2015, PSA Peugeot Citroën announced that they would move into Morocco with an investment of 560 million EUR for the construction of a factory to produce small and subcompact cars for Africa and the Middle East. The initial production will be 90,000 units per year, a figure that could increase to 200,000 as demand rises. Renault on the other hand has been manufacturing cars in Morocco since 1966 and today employs nearly workers. Renault currently has two factories, located in Casablanca and Tangiers, which were estimated to produce 288,053 vehicles in 2015, making a 26.0% y-o-y increase. In April 2016, Renault reinforced its strong commitment to auto production in Morocco by striking a deal of 918 million EUR worth with the government and local spare parts businesses in order to increase their spare parts localisation. In order to strengthen its supply chain within Morocco Renault is aiming to surge the local spare parts sourcing from current 32% to 65% by Morocco is increasingly positioning itself as a gateway to the fast growing African continent as well as to the Arabic market, particularly among investors from the US and Europe. Renaults and Citroën s commitment in Morocco is likely to contribute to this, paving the way for other car companies that are looking to increase their emerging market exposure. Morocco is operating like a highway to the emerging markets of French speaking Africa and the Arab world, the success of the automotive industry is also likely to attract foreign investors in other sectors, in particular aeronautics and renewable energy. The increased vehicle production planned by both Renault and Citroën will also boost the supplier segment. For instance, PSA Peugeot Citroën is aiming for 60% locally sourced components to start with. A figure hoped to rise to 80% as the supplier base grows with the vehicle production segment. Although Renault's presence and investment has contributed to the establishment of over 30 auto component suppliers to Morocco, building a sustainable value chain with in the country is difficult to achieve. Renault has for instance announced that they would consider investing in an engine plant in the country, but before they could move forward a stronger supply chain need to be present in Morocco. FACT PACK BUSINESS SWEDEN 5

6 DEFINING THE BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY The economic growth is expected to rebound in 2017, reaching above 3 %, making way for mediumterm prospects. Moreover, foreign investments are expected to continue to increase and as the construction sector is taking off demand for heavy commercial vehicles and related construction equipment is anticipated to increase. Passenger cars have been the out-performer with a growth of sales of 22 % in the first quarter of 2016, despite the fact that the slow moving tourism should have had an impact on the car rental and collective transport vehicles sales. Though passenger cars have continued to retain a strong growth, sales of light commercial vehicles has decreased with 21% during the same period. Private consumption vehicle demand is expected to grow by 3.5 % in 2016, driven by the decrease in car financing rates, with nearly all local dealers reportedly offering rates as low as 0.0%. Other important growth factors are the higher availability of cheaper models from domestic production, elimination of import taxes on European models, the return of KIA to the Moroccan market in 2015 and economic prosperity in general. Over the period the passenger vehicle sales is forecasted by BMI to grow by 46.5% whereas the light commercial vehicles will show a modest growth, forecasted to 1.9%. As the growth of the vehicle production among the 30 largest vehicle producers, including Morocco, is expected to 5 % until 2020, Morocco is predicted to experience a production growth of nearly 18 %. Morocco is increasingly used by car manufacturers as it offers a strategic location for export to both Europe and emerging markets in Africa and the Arab world. The share of the autos industry in total Moroccan exports to increase from 1.5 % in 2010 to 12 % in 2015, and is prospected to continue to grow. 6 BUSINESS SWEDEN FACT PACK

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