China s Green Revolution: Prioritizing Technologies to Achieve Energy and Environmental Sustainability. McKinsey & Company February 2009

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1 China s Green Revolution: Prioritizing Technologies to Achieve Energy and Environmental Sustainability McKinsey & Company February 2009

2 PROJECT BACKGROUND Objective: Develop a comprehensive, objective, and consistent fact base to inform economically sensible and environmentally sustainable approaches for meeting China s energy and resource growth requirements Not intended to advocate specific policies or approaches. All content and conclusions remain solely the responsibility of McKinsey & Company 1

3 ABOUT THIS REPORT What it does... What it does NOT do... Evaluate the technical potential of 200+ energy efficiency, clean energy and carbon management technologies Evaluate and prioritize abatement measures in 5 sectors buildings, power, transportation, emissionintensive industries, agriculture/ forestry Consider ONLY technology-related costs Incorporate input from several leading authorities Provide a realistic forecast Lay out specific action plans for China Recommend specific abatement targets Consider social costs (e.g., unemployment), taxes, transaction costs, etc. Draw only from McKinsey sources 2

4 Exhibit 5 CHINA IS EXPECTED TO SEE STRONG GDP GROWTH AND CONTINUED URBANIZATION IN THE NEXT TWO DECADES China GDP* EUR Billions, 2005 real China population Billions Urban Rural 6.5% 11, % 8.2% 6, ,803 2, * Exchange rate in 2005 EUR1 = RMB Source: Expert interview; McKinsey analysis 3

5 Exhibit 6 DRIVING UP DEMAND FOR BUILDING FLOOR SPACE, VEHICLES AND BASIC MATERIALS Total floor space Billion sq. m Vehicle fleet Millions 2.9% 6.3% % Commercial Residential % Heavy duty Medium duty Light duty Steel demand Megatons Cement demand Megatons 1,750 1, , Source: China industry year books; McKinsey analysis 4

6 THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT HAS RECOGNIZED THE CHALLENGES AND IS TAKING ACTIONS Recent energy efficiency policies in China Target 20% reduction in energy intensity per unit of GDP in Initiated 1000 Top Enterprise Energy Saving Project to monitor energy efficiency performance of the most energy intensive enterprises Shut-down and consolidated sub-scale, inefficient capacity in energy-intensive industries Implemented energy efficiency standards for automobiles, buildings, and appliances Cut taxes on small cars Invested in grid efficiency and efficient power plants Invested in renewable energy Enacted Renewable Energy Law Enacted Recycling Economy Law to encourage recycling of industrial waste Source: McKinsey analysis 5

7 CURRENT POLICIES AND PLANS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN 5% ANNUAL CARBON EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT IN THE BASELINE SCENARIO... GDP carbon efficiency improvement Percent GDP growth rate Percent China China Others China baseline forecast China Germany United States India Indonesia Source: IEA; expert interview; McKinsey analysis 6

8 ...DRIVING BASELINE EMISSIONS 40% LOWER THAN THE FROZEN TECHNOLOGY SCENARIO, A BIGGER REDUCTION THAN IN NORTH AMERICA Baseline emissions reduction - China Giga tons of CO 2 e Baseline emissions reduction - North America* Giga tons of CO 2 e 2005 Emissions Emissions 7.3 Frozen technology emissions growth 16.1 Frozen technology emissions growth frozen technology emissions frozen technology emissions 10.9 Baseline reduction 8.4 Baseline reduction baseline emissions baseline emissions % -16% * The U.S. and Canada Source: McKinsey analysis 7

9 BEYOND THE BASELINE, WE IDENTIFIED 5 AREAS WHERE CHINA CAN LAUNCH A GREEN REVOLUTION Major technologies in baseline Major technologies in abatement Power Super-and ultra super-critical Wind: onshore Wind: off-shore Solar Transportation Conventional fuel efficiency marginal improvement measures Hybrid and pure electric vehicle Emissions intensive industries Mature efficiency improvement technologies Waste recovery and utilization in industry, agriculture and urban Buildings & appliances Current efficiency building codes Passive design with higher building energy savings Agriculture / forestry Conservatory tillage Grassland restoration and management Source: McKinsey analysis 8

10 1. GREEN POWER IN CHINA: COAL COULD BE REPLACED BY NUCLEAR, HYDRO AND RENEWABLES AS THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF POWER Generation Projection TWh, per cent 100% = 2,500 9,250 8, Coal Hydro 8 Gas Nuclear Wind Solar Others* baseline * Including geothermal, CBM, MSW, LFG and biomass Source: Expert interview; literature research; McKinsey analysis 2030 abatement scenario 9

11 1. US CASE: SIMILAR TREND IN THE US POWER MIX Generation Projection TWh, per cent 100% = 3,865 5,385 4, % = Coal 9 Gas Nuclear All renewables Others* baseline 2030 abatement scenario * Includes oil, geothermal, municipal solid waste, and pumped storage Source: U.S. EIA Annual Energy Outlook (2007), McKinsey analysis 10

12 1. GREEN POWER IN CHINA: GENERATION COST FOR CLEAN TECHNOLOGIES COULD DROP TO COMPARABLE LEVELS OF COAL Generation cost* EUR/KWh abatement scenario Coal Nuclear Wind (strong) Solar PV (strong) Grid parity Grid parity * Generation cost includes amortized capital at 4% risk free discount rate, OPEX and fuel expenses, and excludes tax, subsidy, etc. ** Learning rate is applied to global capacity built-up, as China is likely to be the world exporter for wind and solar equipments Source: China solar association; Huangneng Group; Tsinghua Univ; SERC; McKinsey analysis 11

13 Exhibit GREEN FLEET IN CHINA:EV TECHNOLOGIES CAN BREAK THE RELIANCE ON IMPORTED OIL Well-to-wheel emission* Kg CO 2 e/100 Km Gasoline consumption Liter/100 Km Additional investment EUR/vehicle Country technology leadership Base vehicle Max ICE improvement bundle Europe, US, Japan Full hybrid ,500 Japan Plug-in hybrid Pure electric vehicle ,600 3,600 China shows potential to be technology leader * Emission is calculated based on 2030 power mix assumed in our baseline, where coal power share is 65 percent ** Pure electric vehicle electricity consumption 9 KWh/100 Km, plant to battery efficiency 85%; Battery-to-wheel efficiency 81%; hybrid car with 66 percent electric share Source: DRIVE; expert interview; McKinsey analysis 12

14 Exhibit GREEN FLEET IN CHINA: OIL SAVINGS DEPENDS ON HOW FAST EVS ROLL OUT Total gasoline consumption in 2030 Megatons, assuming EV penetration in new cars reach 100% in 5 years after starting point PEV penetration in passenger car fleet Percent Starting year of massive EV deployment Source: McKinsey analysis 13

15 图 GREEN BUILDING IN CHINA: INSULATION, HVAC SYSTEM AND LIGHTING OFFER SUBSTANTIAL ENERGY SAVINGS WITH GOOD ECONOMICS Abatement volume Gigatons CO 2 e Average abatement cost EUR/ton CO 2 e, 2030 Efficient building insulation HVAC system improvements Lighting Appliances Water heating Though North America has similar potential to reduce its baseline emissions (i.e. 1/3), its major opportunities are in lighting and appliances Source: McKinsey analysis 14

16 3. GREEN BUILDING IN CHINA: ENERGY EFFICIENT BUILDING INSULATION COULD BE APPLIED TO 2/3 OF FLOOR SPACE BY 2030 Penetration of energy efficient building insulation technologies, abatement scenario Billion square meters, Passive design Compliance of current building codes Economic retrofit Energy efficiency building insulation technologies Inadequate insulation* * Majority will be floor space in rural areas Source: McKinsey analysis 15

17 图 GREEN INDUSTRY IN CHINA: ON TOP OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY, WASTE RECOVERY PRESENTS A SIZEABLE ABATEMENT OPPORTUNITY Potential Giga tons CO 2 e Key technologies By-product and waste recovering 0.84 Coal bed methane utilization Municipal waste management Clinker substitution Agriculture waste utilization Energy efficiency 0.39 Steel CCPP CMC Chemical Process automation Catalyst optimization CCS and others 0.34 CCS Relocating steel production to Australia for NG-based DRI Switching from coalbased ammonia production to NGbased Total ~1.6 Source: McKinsey analysis 16

18 图 GREEN ECO-SYSTEM IN CHINA: RESTORING AND EXPANDING FORESTS AND GRASSLANDS Average abatement cost EUR/ton CO 2 e Potential Gigatons CO 2 e Afforestation & reforestation Forestry Forest management Grassland management & restoration Livestock management Agriculture Methane utilization Cropland management & restoration Fertilizer management Total 0.64 Source: McKinsey analysis 17

19 Exhibit 19 GREEN MINDSET IN CHINA: SMALL CHANGES TO CONSUMER BEHAVIOR + DENSER URBAN PLANNING = ADDITIONAL ABATEMENT Abatement potential Gigatons CO 2 e Lower heating temperature 0.10 Behavior change Efficient usage of private cars Better management of appliances Change from ruminant to nonruminant animals 0.10 Urban planning Drive less 0.20 More high-rise buildings 0.10 Total 0.67 Source: China Building Energy Efficiency Annual Report; NSB; expert interview; McKinsey analysis 18

20 FULL APPLICATION OF THESE TECHNOLOGIES COULD BRING A GREEN REVOLUTION FOR BOTH CHINA AND NORTH AMERICA Abatement potential of China vs. baseline Giga tons CO 2 e Abatement potential of North America vs. baseline Giga tons CO 2 e 2030 baseline scenario emissions baseline scenario emissions 9.2 Technical abatement potential 6.7 Technical abatement potential abatement scenario emissions abatement scenario emissions % -55% Source: McKinsey analysis 19

21 Exhibit 18 THIS GREEN REVOLUTION COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE CHINA S ENERGY SECURITY China crude oil demand and supply* Million tons China coal demand and supply Million tons ~ % drop in oil import demand 4, % ~700 2, ,500-4,000 ~190 ~ baseline 2030 abatement scenario 2030 baseline 2030 abatement scenario * 2030 crude oil demand is based on demand forecast of gasoline, diesel and other oil products Source: EIA; IEA; expert interview; McKinsey analysis 20

22 Exhibit 15 ON AVERAGE EUR BILLION WILL BE NEEDED IN ADDITIONAL ANNUAL INVESTMENT TO COMPREHENSIVELY IMPLEMENT THE TECHNOLOGIES Incremental capital needed to capture the technical potential Real 2005 EUR billions, annual average of each 5-year period Average 150~ Source: McKinsey analysis 21

23 图 16 JUST A FIVE-YEAR DELAY COULD REDUCE ABATEMENT POTENTIAL BY ONE-THIRD Loss of abatement potential due to 5-year delay of technology implementation Gigatons CO 2 e Building Power Forestry & agriculture Transportation % Industry Building Power total abatement Power Building Industry Transportation Others 2030 reduced abatement Loss of abatement due to 5-year implementation delay Source: McKinsey analysis 22

24 IN SUM Current policies will deliver real impact Additional reductions are possible and significant......which will deliver both environmental and energy security benefits However, investments needed are very large And decisions need to be made soon 23

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