Evaluation Report: An African Green Revolution: Finding Ways to Boost Productivity

Transcription

1 Evaluation Report: An African Green Revolution: Finding Ways to Boost Productivity TF Country Project Period Grant Amount An African Green Revolution: Finding Ways to Boost Productivity Sub-Saharan TTL Name Don Larson Africa 7/1/2007 Approving William J. 6/30/10 Manager Martin $ 350, Disbursement $ 329, A. Objectives The study aimed to investigate why Sub-Saharan African agriculture has lower productivity at farm level than farms in other regions. A second aim was to suggest policies and interventions that might further agricultural growth. The question why advances in technology that spurred the Green Revolution in Asia have not brought about similar productivity increases in Africa is well studied, but remains a key question. Increasing productivity at farm level gap in Africa should be a key component in efforts to reduce poverty. The project aimed to give special attention to distinguishing effects of absolute agro-climate factors from effects of socioeconomic factors such as markets and household characteristics. This is of course a crucial distinction and one that has not always been made in previous research, in some degree due lack of appropriate data. Explanations for the dismal performance of African agriculture are plentiful. They point to global factors (unfair trade regulation and practices, and declining prices) as well as homegrown weaknesses ranging from ecology (poor and degraded soils, insufficient water supply) to technology (slow diffusion of knowledge), institutions (poor public policies and institutions such as excessive taxation, and insufficient investment in institutional arrangements and infrastructure), and cultural factors (land tenure and gendered division of labor). This variation in explanations to a large extent reflects the multiplicity of conditions under which African agriculture is being carried out given differences in factor endowments, climate, institutions, type of crops cultivated etc. It may on the other hand also reflect knowledge gaps with regard to the actual conditions and constraints facing African agriculture and an inability, due to the lack of data, to identify potential and ongoing processes of structural 1

2 transformation. There has been a tendency to treat sub-saharan Africa as a rather homogenous region and thereby to disregard the great disparity within the continent between and within countries in terms of factor endowments and institutions. While our understanding of the dynamic role of smallholder agriculture in Asia leans on a wealth of empirical data including a significant number of longitudinal studies on farm level, the reverse seems to hold for Sub- Saharan Africa in general. Knowledge about technology choices at farm level is limited mostly because of data limitations. This project is a very important step towards unraveling many of these lacunas in existing knowledge. B. Design and Implementation The project seems to have largely followed the research program as it was laid out in the proposal. There appears to have been no major difficulties with regard to implementation. The challenges mentioned in the completion report refer to problems of timely delivery and logistics. There have been few if any major deviations from the original research plan. It is however a bit unexpected that the difficulty of speaking broadly about African agriculture is listed and one of the surprises encountered during the course of the research. Given that in the proposal a stated aim is to identify how the natural endowments, institutions and household constraints prevent African households from taking up more productive practices a considerable degree of diversity ought to have been expected. It cannot be seen as a major finding of the project that African agriculture is best viewed as a mosaic of different settings Rather the major contribution of the project is the largely successful attempt to, in spite of this mosaic, explore areas when generalizations about the appropriateness of green revolution technology are valid. Judging from the actual output in terms of background papers and book chapters it is obvious that it here the main contribution project can be found. And undoubtedly this is a significant contribution which potentially have bearing on future technology choices and policy design.. The project has drawn heavily on standardized household surveys and also on the available spatial databases on soils, weather and hydrology assembled to study the effects of clime change. The latter is a new and valuable data base which allows for analytical distinctions that have previously been difficult to make. The project has in all probability made use of the most appropriate data available. True, access to encompassing and reliable data remains a 2

3 problem for research on African agriculture, but this project has made productive use of the best available sources. The datasets compiled are likely to be a great asset for future research. As for the composition of the research team it appears that there has been a strong focus on partnership with researchers in the US and Japan. The team chosen has clearly been highly experienced and competent for the task at hand. In the project proposal country participation and ownership was declared to become a very strong component. Some parts of the project were said to rely heavily on long-standing research relationships with African researchers. In the completion report this aspect is not emphasised at all, other than the fact that existing household surveys (with local participation) formed the basis of many papers. Judging from the publication list it is clear that there has been a noticeable African involvement in the research team but it is difficult to know in what degree such participation actually enhances country participation and ownership. In the proposal capacity building is stated as an important component. In the completion report this aspect is not considered. There seems to have been few unforeseen problems and difficulties affecting the project outcome other than the time constraint for researchers with heavy university teaching obligations. This cannot have come as a surprise. The project has resulted in 20 working papers, journal articles and book chapters which is an impressive output. The papers employ a broad range of methodologies although many rely on farm surveys and econometric modeling. Also the breadth of areas and topics covered is impressive. The edited volume proposed promises to be of great value for future research as well as for policy interventions. C. Dissemination The project has been presented at workshop and international conferences for broader audiences as well as for specialists. A volume based on papers from the project is planned. Some papers have already been published in World Bank publications or in other specialist journals. It stated that additional papers are under revision for possible publication in academic journals. Most papers are available online which is commendable, I would have preferred if also larger number of the presentations had been available to a larger audience. The edited volume under review promises to become a standard book in the field. It contains a number of path breaking studies of synthesis character and also chapters containing advanced and detailed analysis of specific topics. 3

4 D. Results and Cost-effectiveness A major conclusion is that the possibilities for an African Green Revolution will have to depend on the extent to which the heterogeneity of African agricultural endowments is considered in order to adapt existing production technologies to differing endowment conditions. An important finding is that there seems to be considerable scope for maize, lowland rice, upland NERICA with advanced technologies adaptable to the production environment in many parts of Africa. In this sense there is scope for transferability of green revolution technology from Asia to Africa although further work is needed to develop modern crop varieties that are suitable for African production environments. Another important finding is that in some parts of Africa NERICA can be high-yielding with use of minimal amounts of chemical fertilizer. Perhaps the most important finding is that since maize and rice do not account for high shares of caloric intake productivity gains have to be achieved also in other crops in order to impact on poverty reduction. Perhaps the most important finding, at least in terms of scope for policy intervention, is that major obstacles are to be found in credit and input markets. Investments in transport and communications infrastructure and in education of the farmers can be identified as crucial steps in terms of policy intervention. This is a high value project. In terms of research it comes out as the so far most important spin-off product of the WDR 2008 Agriculture, Poverty and Development. There seems to have been no apparent (at least not recorded) budget constraint. The project is not very expensive and it light of the impressive output in terms research papers (and forthcoming book) it can be said to be very good value for money. 4

5 Questionnaire for Completed Research Projects Research Quality Indicator Form S AA A BA U N/A Superior Above Average Average Below Average Unacceptable Not Applicable I. Proposal How would you rate, on average, the following aspects of the set of proposals you evaluated Topics Importance of the issues addressed Clarity of the project focus and stated objectives Literature review and references Data and analysis Theoretical/conceptual framework Statistical and econometric methods Use of knowledge and resources available Awareness of data sources Appropriateness of data to research Data compilation Data collection (if applicable) Hiring/training of survey personnel Survey design Conduct of survey Data input Data cleaning Data cataloging II. Conduct of research How would you rate the following aspects of the conduct of the research? Project schedule Overall budget and cost effectiveness Overall apparent efficiency and timeliness of research/project Flexibility, efficiency in responding to unforeseen events Collaboration with Local Researchers (if applicable) Collaboration with local researchers/institutions Training of junior researchers from developing S AA A BA U N/A S AA A BA U N/A 5

6 countries Team participation with local research institutions Interaction with government counterparts or appropriate government agencies? III. Project Outcomes How would you rate the following aspects of project outcomes Clarity of conclusions and recommendations Extent to which conclusions are based on sound analytic work Realism of the recommendations in light of social, political, and administrative constraints Extent to which research outputs are well written Appropriateness of exposition to intended audiences Extent to which research increased knowledge and understanding of the issues Extent to which research provided a sound basis for action for subject country(ies) Extent to which research provided a sound basis for future research. Actual or likely impact on government policy. Actual or likely impact on capacity building or institutional change Actual or likely impact on the wider development community Timeliness of dissemination relative to policy debate and problems Dissemination Identified and made presentations at existing conferences (large and specialized) S AA A BA U N/A Identified and made presentations at regional conferences (beyond subject country(ies) only) Broader outreach (media, blogs etc) Capacity building (training workshops, manuals, instructional briefs, etc.) Appropriateness of dissemination vehicles for target audiences of the research Overall research dissemination Overall value of the research 6