Danube Region energy landscape and transnational cooperation options - introduction -

Transcription

1 Danube Region energy landscape and transnational cooperation options - introduction - Péter Kaderják Director, REKK Danube Transnational Programme Kick-off Event: A Stream of Cooperation September, 2015, Budapest

2 REKK - Regional Centre for Energy Policy Research Energy policy research centre and think-thank based at the Corvinus University of Budapest founded in 2004 Mission: to provide professional analysis, advice and training to promote energy markets that are sustainable both commercially and environmentally Strong cooperation with the EU Danube Region Strategy, PA2: Natural gas market modelling and priority infrastructures assessment Smart grid perspectives RES-E promotion policies in the DR The Energy Union and the DR 2

3 Structure of presentation Key energy indicators of the Danube Region Primary energy, CO2 emission Fuel mix for electricity, incl. RES Energy efficiency Selected regional issues: Supply security Affordability Investment environment Low carbon energy sector Conclusions 3

4 d-maps.com 4 Total primary energy supply Coal Oil Natural gas Nuclear Hydro Renewables SI: 7 TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY Million tonnes of oil equivalent 2013* CZ: 43 AT: 33 SK: 17 HU: 22 UA: 117 MD: 3 RO: km 100 mi Resource diversity and HR: 7 BA: 7 RS: 15 complementarity XK: 2 *IEA Energy Balances of OECD and non-oecd countries (2015), without electricity trade ME: 1 BG: 17 Note: Electricity trade not included

5 d-maps.com 5 Electricity generation fuel mix Coal Oil Natural gas Nuclear Hydro Renewables SI: 16 HR: 13 ELECTRICITY GENERATION TWh, 2013* CZ: 86 AT: 65 BA: 17 SK: 29 HU: 30 RS: 39 UA: 194 MD: 4 RO: km 100 mi Good background for cooperation and market integration XK: 7 BG: 43 *IEA Energy Balances of OECD and non-oecd countries (2015) ME: 4

6 d-maps.com 6 Main energy consuming sectors Energy sector Industry Transport Residential and services Agriculture Other MAIN CONSUMING SECTORS Million tonnes of oil equivalent 2013* CZ: 43 SK: 17 UA: km 100 mi AT: 33 HU: 22 MD: 3 SI: 7 RO: 32 HR: 7 BA: 7 RS: 15 XK: 2 *IEA Energy Balances of OECD and non-oecd countries (2015), without electricity trade ME: 1 BG: 17

7 CO 2 intensity (2011) Scope for significant improvement and knowledge transfer Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators Recent Interreg project on LOCSEE 7

8 8 CO 2 emission per capita (2011) Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators

9 Energy efficiency of national economies (2012) Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 9

10 Major unused potential in energy efficiency Losses in the energy sector Transformation losses Consumption of the energy sector Distribution losses Energy available for end users EU27 Malta Bulgaria Estonia France Greece Czech Republic Slovakia Poland Romania Lithuania Sweden Germany Slovenia Cyprus Hungary United Kingdom Belgium Spain Finland Denmark Italy Netherlands Ireland Portugal Austria Latvia Luxembourg Croatia Turkey Switzerland Norway Heating demand in households in DR / EU member states Supply security Household bill Source: 10

11 NEEAPS National Energy Efficiency Action Plans: EU MSs EU Member States: Target setting pursuant to 2012/27/EU Target for 2020 Target defined in absolute numbers: [Mtoe] as notified from in 2013, in the NEEAP 2014 or in a separate notification to the European Commission in 2015 National pledges ( indicative national targets ) should add up to reach EU 2 energy efficiency target Sum of 28 indicative targets: Mtoe final energy consumption 2020 EU EE target: 1086 Mtoe final energy consumption Policies planned to reach the savings by

12 NEEAPS National Energy Efficiency Action Plans: non-eu states Non-Member States: Target setting pursuant to Energy Service Directive (2006/32/EC): obligation under the Energy Community Treaty Target for 2018 Uniform requirement: 1% per year (9% between 2009 and 2018) Baseline: average of last 5 years before 2010 Policies planned to reach the savings in : 1st NEEAP : 2nd NEEAP 12

13 13 NEEAPS energy savings targets of non- EU states Country 2nd NEEAP submitted Baseline (ktoe) Kosovo Overall energy savings target (9% in ktoe) Moldova 2013 not provided Montenegro Serbia Ukraine Bosnia and Hercegovina Only 1st NEEAP Target year other than 2018 Sources: Assessments of the Energy Efficiency Action Plans of each Contracting Party, Energy Community; for BiH: Trivanovic, 2013

14 14 Major variations in RES-E penetration Share of RES-E in total electricity generation (2012)

15 15 the rest still being old large hydro Composition of RES-E by energy source (2012)

16 16 Renewable electricity targets and achievement (% of gross final electricity consumption) Source: NREAPs, REKK survey

17 RES-E support schemes Major challenge to re-design support schemes and improve costefficiency Source: REKK survey 17

18 18 Unit support for renewable electricity (2012, EUR/MWh) Source: REKK survey

19 Expenditure for renewable electricity support as percentage of end-use prices (2012) Source: REKK survey, IEA, Eurostat 19

20 Current state of affairs smart grid policy How would you characterise the current development phase regarding smart grid investments in your country? CZ RO SI CR BA MD AT HU ME Leading role Advanced role Average role At the beginning Not started yet In which field do you expect the biggest SG investment need? CZ RO SI CR BA MD AT HU ME distribution network (excluding SMs) SMs transmission network 20

21 21 Drivers of smart grid deployment What are the key benefits/services you associate with smart grid development in your country? beneficiary CZ RO SI CR BA MD AT HU ME Active customers consumer Integration of all network users Enables markets Power quality based market segmentation DSO Optimizes asset management Self healing network Commercial loss reduction Benefits are country-specific DSO related issues seems to be equally important as the target related ones

22 22 Extremes in electricity service quality SAIDI value for unplanned interruptions Note: 2010/2011/2012 data depending on the country Source: CEER and national sources

23 Structure of presentation Key energy indicators of the Danube Region Primary energy, CO2 emission Fuel mix for electricity, incl. RES Energy efficiency Selected regional issues: Supply security Affordability Investment environment Low carbon energy sector Conclusions 23

24 Supply security a gas crisis could hit the DR most! Reference 2015 prices ( /MWh) Price increase due to a January crisis (%) -weighted average -weighted average 21,0 26,5 21,1 JP 27,0 30,6 JP 22,9 22,6 26,3 23,3 21,4 20,0 24,3 50,0 +1% +1% AD AU BN ED GQ ID MY NG OM PE QA TT US YE 21,1 23,3 24,1 19,3 17,7 24,1 24,2 17,7 21,5 19,4 20,5 23,2 21,2 22,3 DZ 21,3 24,2 21,6 20,5 21,7 Legend Fro To Colo ,7 20,9 21,3 21,9 23,0 25,5 22,8 50,0 22,6 25,7 27,0 27,7 27,9 27,5 23,3 23,9 20,6 26,2 27,7 50,0 AD AU BN ED GQ ID MY NG OM PE QA TT US YE +6 DZ Legend Fro To Colo % -5% -1% -1% 1% 1% % 37% % REKK modelling,

25 Affordability market integration will bring significant energy cost savings Estimated impact of implementing natural gas PCI projects on gas wholesale prices in the Danube Region Market Reference Short-term Mid-term Price change due to short-term PCI projects ( /MWh) Price change due to mid-term PCI projects ( /MWh) Price change due to short-term PCI projects (%) Price change due to mid-term PCI projects (%) AT % -1. BA % -15.1% BG % -20.5% CZ % -1. DE % -1.1% HR % -15. HU % -7.9% MV % -6.5% RO % 15.8% SB % -18.7% SI % -1.1% SK % -1. UA % -1.7% DR average % -6.5% Whole Europe % -6.8% REKK modelling,

26 Investment environment how to ensure priority infrastructures are built? 26 Natural gas Electricity lines Generation

27 27 Low carbon energy sector Heating: 4 of primary energy use in inefficient buildings Electricity: with or without new coal Can RES-E and RES-H be affordable alternatives?

28 Structure of presentation Key energy indicators of the Danube Region Primary energy, CO2 emission Fuel mix for electricity, incl. RES Energy efficiency Selected regional issues: Supply security Affordability Investment environment Low carbon energy sector Conclusions 28

29 Major areas for relevant interregional project proposals Regulatory capacity building in energy Promoting interconnectivity and new investments in electricity and gas Affordable options for energy efficiency and renewable energy utilization with an eye on energy poverty How to make energy infrastructures smarter in the DR? and many more! 29

30 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!