Does Turkey Turn East?

Transcription

1 Essay December 2009 Does Turkey Turn East? Dietrich Jung The essay discusses recent changes in Turkey s foreign policy behavior. It is based on a review of Graham Fuller s book The New Turkish Republic, which was published by the International History Review in March The author argues that the signs of independent foreign policy making by Ankara should not be understood as a turn to the East. Rather, Turkey s new role in international politics is dependent on the country s institutional integration in the West.

2 Dietrich Jung: Does Turkey Turn East? 2 For many observers contemporary Turkish politics has remained a puzzle. Since November 2002, the only secular and democratic republic in the Muslim world has been governed by a party which has its roots in Turkey s Islamist political movement. Once in power, however, the Justice and Development Party (JDP) became an ardent promoter of democratic reform and EU integration. The JDP accepts the separation of state and religion while criticizing the rigid state control over religion that has characterized the Kemalist politics of the old republic. More recently, however, the reform enthusiasm of the JDP s first years in power has considerably slowed down, if not even reached a stand-still. At the moment, Turkey-EU relations are not at its best. In addition, the strains in the relationship with Israel raised questions about Turkey s future foreign policy orientation. At the World Economic Forum in Davos in January 2009, for instance, Prime Minister Erdogan stormed off the panel after a dispute with Israeli President Shimon Perez. Following the Gaza War of early 2009, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has continued to criticize Israel for its military campaign against the Hamas-controlled Gaza strip. While the JDP initially advocated both an independent Turkish foreign policy and Turkey s firm integration into Western institutions such as NATO and the EU, now some observers have suspicions that the incumbent Turkish government is on its way to turn East. In his book The New Turkish Republic. Turkey as a Pivotal State in the Muslim World Graham Fuller, a former vice chairman of the National Intelligence Council at the CIA and adjunct professor at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver, analyses the recent changes in Turkish foreign policy. He argues that the JDP s deviation from Kemalist foreign policy traditions and the party s search for more independence from the West in shaping the country s foreign policies will ultimately serve the interests of Turkey, the Middle East, and the West. Fuller observes the forging of renewed interrelationships between Turkey and the Middle East, making Turkey again a part of Middle Eastern and Muslim politics. The author presents his argument in three major steps. After an historical overview from late Ottoman times to the contemporary reemergence of Turkish Islam in the first part of the book, the second part deals with Turkey s relationships with the outside world. Putting its focus on the Middle East and Muslim countries, this main body of the book also looks at Turkish foreign policy toward Europe, Russia and the United States. The concluding part then presents three future foreign-policy scenarios for Turkey Washington-centric policies, European-centric policies, or Ankara-centric policies and tries to pro-

3 Dietrich Jung: Does Turkey Turn East? 3 vide some foreign-policy advice for the US administration, the latter based on the conclusion that Turkey as the old, predictable, and loyal American ally is a thing of the past. Graham Fuller s argument is not new. In scattered journal articles several scholars have pointed to Turkey s growing political influence on the Middle East and the Islamic world at large in the context of both the JDP s rise to power and the increased process of Turkey s EU integration. What is new, however, is that Fuller develops this argument within the framework of a comprehensive overview of Turkish contemporary foreign relations. Contrary to the view taken in so many books on Turkish foreign policy, Fuller clearly shifts the focus from Turkey s Western relations to those with countries in the Middle East and Asia, addressing in the course of the book almost all Middle Eastern states individually. In this way, Fuller not only offers a good description of Turkey s current foreign relations, but he also supports his general thesis of Ankara s growing impact on Middle Eastern politics. The indirect negotiations between Israel and Syria in 2008, mediated by Turkey, as well as the political strains between Ankara and Tel Aviv after the Gaza War of 2009, are good examples for the validity of Fuller s argument. Since the establishment of the Turkish Republic in 1923, Ankara has never had such a pronounced and rather independent foreign policy toward the Middle East. In a more critical vein, however, Fullers discussion of the role of Turkish-EU relations nevertheless seems to be underdeveloped. Here, the strength of the book, its focus on Turkey s non-western relations, turns into its weakness at the same time. Under the heading Turkey and Europe, Fuller does not actually look at Turkish EU policies. Instead, he dedicates this only five-page-long section to the political role of Turkish immigrants in the EU. Yet the rise of the JDP and the concomitant political socialization of Turkey s Islamist wing within the country s secular context, as well as the country s new Middle Eastern orientation, are hardly to be comprehended without taking the EU accession process into account. Indeed, it was not before the EU s decision to grant Turkey the official candidacy status at Helsinki in 1999 that Middle Eastern rulers themselves turned their eyes toward Ankara. Ironically, the closer Turkey comes to the EU, the more important a role Ankara might play in the Middle East. This underestimation of the impact of Turkey s EU accession process also characterizes Fuller s analysis on the reemergence of Islam in Turkey s public sphere. While Fuller dedicates ten pages to the Gülen Movement, he remains almost completely silent on the constant pressure by the EU to raise the level of religious freedom and pluralism. Of course does the Gülen Movement play an important role, but in explaining the increas-

4 Dietrich Jung: Does Turkey Turn East? 4 ing visibility of Islam in Turkey, Fuller s emphasis on the movement at the expense of the EU reform process can hardly been justified. It is first and foremost the EU reforms that enable religious actors in Turkey to gain more space in the public realm. In this sense, the democratization of Turkish law and institutions has been accompanied by an Islamization of its society. The New Turkish Republic is a timely and necessary contribution to the current Turkey debate. The book is an excellent primer on contemporary Turkish foreign policy with a clear stress on the country s Middle Eastern relationships. The author shows in-depth knowledge of the country based not only on the scholarly works of others but also on various personal experiences in Turkey. Yet the real value of a book depends not only on its content but also on its audience. Which kind of audience does Fuller address? The book is hardly directed toward Turkey experts or scholars in International Relations who are looking for theoretically sophisticated arguments about Turkish foreign politics. The New Turkish Republic is a well-written and well-structured compilation of facts and not a theoretical machine. It provides a good overview for generally interested readers as well as for foreign-policy-makers and journalists. It is readable in pieces and therewith useable as a kind of reference book; a reference book, however, whose life-span is subject to the volatile nature of Turkish politics. Does this nature of Turkish politics now indicate that the JDP government turns toward the East? Can we observe a move toward Fuller s scenario of an Ankara-centric foreign policy? In my opinion, this move is not very likely. With the appointment of Ahmet Davutoglu to the foreign ministry, Prime Minister Erdogan certainly underlined the JDP s new emphasis on good neighborhood and multi-lateral foreign policy approaches. Right from the beginning, the previous professor of International Relations at Marmara and Beykent universities has been the brain behind Erdogan s foreign policy approach. Both, however, Erdogan and Davutoglu know that Turkey s influence in international politics is predicated on the country s Western integration. In the international competition with other middle powers, it is Turkey s NATO- membership and its candidacy for the EU that gives Ankara a comparative advantage vis-á-vis its competitors. In terms of technology and training, Turkey s military power is utterly dependent on NATOmembership. The countries vibrant economy benefits not only from Turkey s integration into the European market, but also from the continuing support by the IMF, in itself conditioned by the role that Ankara plays in Western political and economic institutions. In short, the international and regional political weight of Turkey largely is a result of its Western integration. The more the country moves to the East the less will its international status be. As paradoxi-

5 Dietrich Jung: Does Turkey Turn East? 5 cal as it may sound, Ankara s relative independence as a foreign policy actor depends on Turkey s alliance with the West. References: Fuller, Graham E. (2008): The New Turkish Republic. Turkey as a Pivotal State in the Muslim World, Washington: United States Institute of Peace Press. Jung, Dietrich (2009): Review of The New Turkish Republic in: International History Review, 31 (1):