Workforce Outlook. Dennis K. Winters Chief Economist Department of Workforce Development

Transcription

1 Workforce Outlook Local Government Institute of Wisconsin October 1, 2015 Madison, WI Dennis K. Winters Chief Economist Department of Workforce Development

2 Pace of US Economic Recovery Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth Over 16-Quarter Recovery Period 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 9.2% 5% 0%

3 Pace of US Jobs Recovery National Jobs Recovery Different than Previous Recoveries

4 Projected Population Change

5 Projected Population Change People Aged 65 & Older

6 Workforce Replacement Needs: Quantity Labor Force Participation Rate US vs. WI

7 Workforce Replacement Needs: Quantity 100% 80% Labor Force Participation Rate by Age Cohort Female Male 60% 40% 20% 0% Age group

8 Workforce Replacement Needs: Quantity Employment Distribution by Age Groups in Wisconsin Thousands

9 Workforce Replacement Needs: Quantity 2012 Nursing Workforce

10 Workforce Replacement Needs: Quantity Participation Rate through 2020

11 Top 10 Job Openings on JobCenterofWisconsin.com 1. Registered Nurses 3, Retail Salesperson 3, Customer Service Representatives 3, Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers 1, Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers 910 openings 6. Office Clerks, General Cashiers Personal Care Aides Waiters and Waitresses Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop Nursery, and Greenhouse 1 Source: snapshot, July, 2015

12 WI Job Openings through Projections Top Occupations Occupation Change ( ) Average Annual Openings Projected Due to Employment SOC Code SOC Title Employment Employment Percent Due to Growth Replacements 2012 (1) rank 2022 (2) Total (3) Total, All Occupations 3,051,328 3,269, , ,632 71,393 95, Retail Salespersons 81,458 84,271 2, ,786 3, Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 56,633 64,120 7, ,162 2, Cashiers 64,523 63, ,790 2, Waiters and Waitresses 46,329 48,402 2, ,229 2, Customer Service Representatives 59,200 66,259 7, ,611 2, Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand 56,227 60,119 3, ,742 2, Registered Nurses 57,993 65,935 7, ,124 1, Office Clerks, General 78,953 80,898 1, ,659 1, Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse 60,946 58,050-2, ,849 1, Personal Care Aides 47,289 59,756 12, , ,585

13 The Changing Economy Significant Changes: Unemployment rate declining Baby Boomers retiring faster Large increases in job openings Employers demand workers with specialized skills Rapidly changing technology

14 Wisconsin Economic Indicators State unemployment rate at lowest point since 2008, consistently below national rate was Wisconsin s strongest year for private sector job creation in a decade, per quarterly census. Year-over-year gains in employment, private sector job gains are significant, per monthly estimates. Employers ready to hire skilled labor. ~82,000 job openings on JobCenterofWisconsin.com.

15 Workforce Replacement Needs: Quality In today's market, finding trained, technical employees is increasingly difficult Without people with technical skills, any manufacturing business is in serious trouble. -- Terry Townsend, President, Vital Plastics in Baldwin, providing testimonial in support of the Wisconsin Fast Forward worker training grant program (Company awarded grant in 2014) *** WMC CEO Economic Survey, June 2015: 70 percent of responding business executives say they are having trouble finding workers, and 52 percent said that it is because of the lack of qualified applicants.

16 DWD Talent Development Strategies Expand demand driven workforce models at the state, regional and local level. High-demand CTE programming & credentialing in K-12 schools and tech colleges. Further align partners, resources & networks to support economic development, business expansion/attraction strategies. Enhance workforce strategies and funding models.

17 Wisconsin Fast Forward $15 million in customized, targeted demand-driven worker training grants around regional industries, sectors & clusters. DWD s Office of Skills Development administers grant program, facilitates collaborative solutions for demand-driven training needs. Employer-driven: Development & delivery meets employer s current or future needs for skilled workers. Rigorous application review and accountability measures. To date, 145 projects awarded over $12.5 million funds to train over 13,700 workers, or about $900 per trainee.

18 Wisconsin Apprenticeship: A National Model 2015 WI Apprenticeship Summit: Future Steps Expand outreach, education and advocacy. Align workforce, economic development systems and resources Engage Employers and Sponsors. Improve the career pathway from K-12 to Apprenticeship. Recruit and retain high-potential applicants and apprentices.

19 Youth & Registered Apprenticeship, Bridging Talent Development Programs

20 Wisconsin Labor Market Information System New JobCenterOfWisconsin.com Phase 1 Launch Highlights Easier access to integrated labor market information to drive employment decisions. New landing page highlights most sought-after labor market data. Modern & mobile-friendly website design. Simplified registration and improved usability. Advanced skills matching to connect talent with job postings quickly and efficiently.

21 Wisconsin Labor Market Information System New JobCenterOfWisconsin.com Phase 1 Launch

22 Questions? Dennis Winters DWD Chief Economist