IISD-GWSP Conference on the Water-Energy- Food Security Nexus

Transcription

1 IISD-GWSP Conference on the Water-Energy- Food Security Nexus May 1-4, 2012, Winnipeg Basin Case Study: Danube River Basin IWHW-BOKU

2 Structure of presentation What are the magnitudes of anthropogenic and environmental changes in the basin? What drives water management and transboundary cooperation in the Danube basin? Which linkages can be identified?

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4 Some figures about the basin Countries: Moldova, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Republic of Yugoslavia, Montenegro, Bosnia- Hercegowina, Croatia, Slovenia, Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Austria, Germany Switzerland, Italy, Poland, Macedonia, Albania Figures: Length: 2857 km Area: km 2 Population: Mio.

5 Magnitudes of anthropogenic and environmental changes in the basin? Political changes Severe economic changes Climate change

6 The last 20 years Collapse of Yugoslavia in a civil war ten thousands were killed, hundred thousands were expatriated New states have been established Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia- Hercegowina, Makedonia, Montenegro Politically unsettled problems (Kosovo, Transnistria) Political transition: CZ,SLW,HU,SLV,BLG,ROM are EU members CRO will become 2013 a member state MA, SE are accession states

7 Economic Status and Development Large gradient in GDP/capita from upstream to downstream Economic growth rate in some downstream countries is larger than upstream (RO, BLG, UK,.) The economy is very volatile GDP ( /capita/year) Germany Austria Czech Republic Slovakia Slovenia Hungary Croatia Serbia 950 Bulgaria Romania Ukraine Moldova 350

8 Water and environment Agriculture is still a quite important economic factor

9 Water and environment Agriculture is still a quite important economic factor Agriculturalal water demands are still quite high

10 Environmental Problems and Pressures Water pollution in tributary basins (also in drinking water) Nutrient load and euthrophication Sensitive ecological areas are endangered The Black Sea is endangered (it accumulates all the pollutants) Morphological changes of the rivers

11 Nutrient loads (N and P)

12 Aquatic Pollution:

13 Human Intervention Numerous reservoirs for irrigation supply changes in the runoff pattern Water abstraction instream water requirements are essential Channelisation of rivers degradation of river morphology Environmental degradation losses in wetlands and flood plains

14 Pressures on wetlands

15 Impacts of climate change RCM data RCM models from ENSEMBLES 25x25km resolution Selection criteria good performance in PRUDENCE different driving GCM cover full project area RCM resolution 25x25 km Aladin (ARPEGE), by MeteoFrance PROMES (driving HADCM3Q), spanish RegCM (driving ECHAM5 r3) by ICTP 3 proposed RCMs 2nd SAB Budapest

16 Regional Climate Model (RegCM3): Changes until relative to Changes in mean annual precipitation Changes in mean annual temperature (Nachtnebel et al., from CCWater-S project, 2012)

17 Impacts of climate change T mean will increase C until 2050 and C until 2100 T increase is stronger in the South T increase is stronger in summer P: unclear picture P seems to decrease in the South, especially in spring and in summer Weak statements for extremes

18 What drives transboundary cooperation? Large gradient in economic development Major political changes in Central and Eastern Europe (after 1991) Transformation of legislation and administration in former Eastern countries Water pollution and environmental degradation International river (navigation)

19 Mode of cooperation From bilateral agreements to basin wide agreements Establishment of ICPDR From a single objective approach to an integrated approach

20 Summary and Conclusions There is a clear upstrem downstream gradient The direct human impacts on the water cycle are strong (in both quantity and quality) The climate change signla exhibits lareg uncertainties with respect to rainfall Only the increase in temperature will have severe impacts on the water system, especially in downstream countries.

21 Summary and Conclusions: Danube is the most international river in the world Political and economic transition in several countries has substantial impacts on environment Political transition stimulated basin wide cooperation From bilateral to a multi-lateral and integrated approach Some major transboundary problems exist - Euthrophication - Some major pollution sources - Impacts on the Delta and Black Sea - The Gabcikovo hydropower case

22 Thank you for your attention