2 INTRODUCTION The Middle East is a highly important and a very complicated region. Strategical chess games are played at different levels parallel matches: 1.) Great power rivalry: challenging the American hegemony (the rise of China and Russia). 2.) Regional power play: defining the emerging regional order (Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia + Egypt). 3.) On the ground level: civil wars (Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen). >>> The presentation will focus on these chess boards with the following questions: What are their basic characteristics? Who are the movers and shakers? What are their motivations and relations?
4 THE MIDDLE EAST ETHNIC AND RELIGIOUS COMPLEXITY Arab and Islamic world common characteristics: language, culture, history + contemporary economical, social, and political challenges. On the other hand it is a complex (diverse) region ethnicities, religions, tribes >>> the importance of the transnational identities. Deep social-cultural (ethnic and religious) cleavages: Arabs vs. Persians, Turks vs. Kurds, Shi ites vs. Sunnis. The different mixes of religion, ethnicity, and language in each country explain their internal instability and external struggles for power. They also describe the limits of any effort to create a stable pattern of Iranian influence, Pan-Arab influence, or any form of regional stability. Furthermore, they clarify why the strategic map of the Middle East has produced so much tension, conflict, and change over time.
5 THE MIDDLE EAST ETHNIC AND RELIGIOUS COMPLEXITY
6 THE MIDDLE EASTERN CHESSBOARD MAIN CHARACTERISTICS Important region, in the focus ( crossroad ) of international relations from ancient time to the modern era (the influence and presence of foreign actors). Relations between the states of the region are dominated by suspicion, conflict, and latent (or sometimes overt) confrontation. Old animosities and distrust since rivalries are central in the political narratives and legitimacy formulas: Saudi Arabia vs. Iran, Egypt vs. Turkey. No regional integration and power hierarchy, constant rivalry between different dynasties and powers (therefore the region is highly militarized). The Middle East has seen regional hegemons come and go: 1952: Egypt s era, : Rise of the Gulf, : Israel s moment, 2003: Iran on the rise, 2011: New face off. >>> There are many players, and they play tough matches
7 THE MIDDLE EAST HISTORY OF REGIONAL CONFLICTS
8 NEW (DIS)ORDER OF THE MIDDLE EAST NEW PATTERNS AND TRENDS New Middle East was proclaimed in various occasions: 1918 / 1945 / 1967 / 1973 / 1979 / 1991 / 2001 / 2011 Why today s Middle East is different? More active regional players more aware local actors, beside the great powers, actually, the states are playing the leading role (more active foreign policy). More complex games too many actors-players, beside the states, there are other important (sub- or supranational) players (e.g. tribes, ethnic and religious groups). More security problems there are plenty of conflicts, also new challenges are arising (e.g. demographic pressures, failed governments, climate changes, etc.). + A new kind of fight: previous fights were country and regime specific, the emerging confrontation is over the nature and future of the region s societies. >>> A larger power struggle has emerged, which is reshaping the strategic landscape of the ( Changing ) Middle East
9 THE MIDDLE EAST COMPLEXITY OF RELATIONSHIPS
10 GUIDE TO THE MIDDLE EAST RELATIONS AND RIFTS
11 GREAT POWER RIVALRIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST USA, RUSSIA, CHINA Historical rivalry (between colonial powers), Cold War rivalry (between superpowers), currently new international rivalry ( challenging the American hegemony ). U.S. is still leading as regional actor, with the constant aim: blocking the rise of any hegemon in the region, plus other strategic motivations (bilateral relations). Russia is coming back in order to counterbalance the West (USA&EU), to obtain economic and diplomatic gains, to manage the internal (Islamic) problem. China is buying up influence via economical-financial relations, multipolar intentions, and tries to manage the internal (Islamic) problem too. Beside weakening (destroying) the Islamic State, their interests differ sharply (+ the local actors are playing them off against each other). Conflict zones, where the great powers collide: Syria, Libya, Egypt, Iraq, (Iran), etc. >>> A new great game in the Middle East
12 GREAT POWER RIVALRIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST USA, RUSSIA, CHINA
13 DIMENSIONS OF POWER IN THE MIDDLE EAST WHO ARE THE MAIN ACTORS? Military power (and reach) is significant, but there are other dimensions of power, which are highly important in the Middle Eastern chess game: Demography the size of the population (80 million countries: Egypt, Iran, Turkey). Geography the strategical location of the countries (Egypt, Iran, Turkey). Economy the success of the economic models (Turkey, Gulf monarchies). Technology the rate of innovation (know how in practical context). Diplomatic relations the importance of the alliances (American umbrella ). Informal relations the use of transnational networks (culture, religion, ethnicity). Soft power the use of other tools, like communication (Qatar s Al-Jazeera). >>> The leading regional powers: Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, (Egypt), (Israel).
14 HARD POWER IN THE MIDDLE EAST THE REGIONAL MILITARY BALANCE
15 REGIONAL MOVERS AND SHAKERS IRAN, SAUDI ARABIA, TURKEY Rivalries are fueled by the historical past (wistfulness for former Persian, Ottoman, Arabic empires), the regional process (vacuum in Syraq), and the internal situation. Iran less revolutionary, more realistic, regional aspirations, actively present, tries to preserve the status quo, to secure it s position in the region. Saudi Arabia less conservative, statist, more active foreign policy, financial, technological, diplomatic, and military support in order to gain positions. Turkey new foreign policy, Middle Eastern orientation, regional aspirations and activism, leading the revolution, with Turkish soft power. (+ Egypt is week, but could be an important player in the future again.) (+ Israel is silent, but powerful player in the region.) >>> More active players, more diverse foreign policies, and wider practices...
16 REGIONAL RIVALRIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST IRAN, SAUDI ARABIA, TURKEY
17 REGIONAL RIVALRIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST IRAN VS. SAUDI ARABIA Serious and old rivals for influence in the Middle East. They have different religions, relations, models, and motivations. Clash of the conservativist-traditionalist and the radical-revolutionary Islam? Or clash of geopolitics? Classic power play: who will guard and lead the Gulf region? (E.g. the name dispute: Persian or Arabian Gulf?) After the Arab Spring new concerns and possibilities. Different visions, positions, and reactions. Both are motivated by security considerations. Battlegrounds: Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Bahrain, Lebanon, Palestine, Afghanistan, etc. (+ rivalry in the OPEC). >>> They are important players at the chess table, however, the regional game is more complex
18 REGIONAL RIVALRIES IRAN VS. SAUDI ARABIA
19 THE NEW FACE OFF TRANSFORMATION OF THE MIDDLE EAST? Two groups of countries and political forces: Islamists (Iran, Qatar, Turkey, Muslim Brotherhood): conviction that political Islam is the sole framework for governing. Traditionalists (Saudi Arabia, Gulf monarchies + Egypt, Jordan, Israel): favoring a more gradual, managed, and cautious evolution of the existing order. The struggle will be determined by many factors: The future of important states (Egypt, Algeria, etc.): position and influence? The management of the internal problems (succession, reform, etc.): stability? The chaos of the Middle East (Jordan, Lebanon, etc.): new battlegrounds? + Other factors: globalization & socioeconomic turbulence! >>> Who can adjust to these social, political, and economic waves?
20 GROUND LEVEL IMPORTANT NON-STATE ACTORS In Syria, Iraq, Libya, and Yemen the foreign patrons are important, but the local and/or transnational non-state actors are significant players too. The rise and creation of the Islamic State; Al-Qaeda franchise in the Middle East (al-nusra); Religious organizations (Hezbollah, Muslim Brotherhood); Religious militias (Badr Brigade, Islamic Army); Important ethnic-religious groups (the Kurds, the Houthis); Rebel-opposition groups (Free Syrian Army); Tribes, tribal networks (Deraa, Hasaka, Raqqa). >>> The uncertain players complicate the game even more
21 GROUND LEVEL IMPORTANT NON-STATE ACTORS
22 CONCLUSION FUTURE PROSPECTS Whether the regional system has been destroyed with the implosion of the Arab world and the proliferation of political vacuums in the Middle East? Yes, the state system has been hollowed out by the civil wars and the inroads made by the Islamic State, which challenges the whole concept of regional order. No, the notion of a regional system itself has not been destroyed, the main regional players are acting within the framework of current order (state borders). New regional order is emerging out of the conflicts, where the important players are Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, (Egypt). They are projecting significant influence into the region, and have the potential to form a more positive system that takes on the regional problems. Rather, the question is, how these four countries will (inter)act in the future
23 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! GERGELY ABLAKA NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF PUBLIC SERVICE FACULTY OF INTERNATIONAL AND EUROPEAN STUDIES SZOLNOK 2015
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