Is There a Bigger Future for Smaller Cars in the United States? Rebecca Lindland Director, Americas

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1 Is There a Bigger Future for Smaller Cars in the United States? Rebecca Lindland Director, Americas

2 Overview Rising fuel prices, increasing environmental concerns and the possibility of tougher CAFE standards are causing some analysts to predict a rosy future for smaller cars in the United States And some automakers believe that cars in the emerging A and B segments may be just right for Gen Y consumers Is there a boom ahead for small cars? This presentation will examine the issues that will drive U.S. small car demand over the next five years 2

3 Definitions Non Premium Segments In this presentation, smaller cars are defined as follows: A-Segment: Minicompact cars like the smart 2-passenger and the Fiat 500 B-Segment: Subcompact cars like the Chevrolet Aveo ($9,995) or Toyota Yaris C-Segment: Compact cars like the Ford Focus ($14,075) or Toyota Corolla Small Specialty Segment: Sporty small cars like the Saturn Sky (Opel GT) ($24,975) or Hyundai Tiburon 3

4 Definitions Premium Segments In this presentation, smaller premium cars are defined as follows: Near Premium Segment: Vehicles below premium price point of about $28,000 such as the Volvo S40 ($24,365) and Audi A3 ($25,340) Entry Premium Segment: Vehicles such as the Jaguar X-Type ($35,060) Entry Premium Crossover (CUV) Segment: Small luxury trucks like the BMW X3 ($38,000) 4

5 A-Segment (Minicompact) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 A-Segment Vs. Total US Market A-Segment / L Total Market / R ,500,000 18,000,000 17,500,000 17,000,000 16,500,000 16,000,000 15,500,000 15,000,000 Currently there are no A-segment vehicles sold in the U.S. market This changes in 2008 with the official introduction of smart brand vehicles through Roger Penske s dealer/distribution network The segment is NOT expected to grow significantly 20,500 units are forecast for 2013 The U.S. A-segment will be made up of a single vehicle, the smart Fortwo, an image focused product Relatively modest forecast for 2008 sales of 12,000 units Many U.S. consumers view A-segment vehicles as too small and unsafe 5

6 B-Segment (Subcompact) 900, , , , , , , , ,000 0 B-Segment Vs. Total US Market B-Segment / L Total Market / R ,500,000 18,000,000 17,500,000 17,000,000 16,500,000 16,000,000 15,500,000 15,000,000 B-Car sales are forecast to increase 97.5% to 771,000 units by 2013 B-segment will experience these volume increases, largely due to the influx of new products But, the B-segment accounts for just 2% of the U.S. market today, rising to 4% by 2013 Many of today s B-Cars are as large as C-Cars of 15 years ago B-Cars are often bought by entrylevel buyers seeking the cheapest new car But some B-Cars like Scion xd and Honda Fit are going after Gen Y 6

7 C-Segment (Compact) 2,150,000 2,100,000 2,050,000 2,000,000 C-Segment / L C-Segment Vs. Total US Market Total Market / R 18,500,000 18,000,000 17,500,000 C-Car sales are forecast to increase 8.5% to 2.08 million units by ,950,000 1,900,000 1,850,000 1,800,000 1,750,000 1,700, ,000,000 16,500,000 16,000,000 15,500,000 15,000,000 C-Cars are the smallest vehicles many consumers will accept As such, this is the entry-level vehicle for many consumers Model activity is far less than the frenzy at the subcompact level Many compact buyers are moving to more versatile CUVs and STWs But Gen X and Gen Y females are likely to continue to buy compact cars in large numbers 7

8 Small Specialty Segment 350, , , , , ,000 50,000 0 Small Specialty Vs. Total US Market Small Specialty / L Total Market / R ,500,000 18,000,000 17,500,000 17,000,000 16,500,000 16,000,000 15,500,000 15,000,000 The small specialty segment is forecast to decline 9.9% to 227,000 units by 2013 This is a style driven segment of diverse concepts, heavily impacted by new model introductions The shelf life of products in this segment is short, making this a difficult place to make money The small specialty segment has been contracting since the mid 1990s when the last of the Baby Boomers left the single life stage Single Gen X and Y prefer sedans and trucks over small specialty cars But, empty nesting Baby Boomers love the new roadsters 8

9 Near Premium Luxury Segment 140, , ,000 Near Luxury Segment Vs. Total US Market Near Luxury / L Total Market / R 18,500,000 18,000,000 17,500,000 Near premium luxury cars are C-sized cars with premium brands (BMW 1-Series, Audi A3 and A1, Volvo S40 and C30) 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ,000,000 16,500,000 16,000,000 15,500,000 15,000,000 Between 2007 and 2013, sales of near luxury cars are forecast to increase 76% but volume is very low less than 125,000 units and less than 0.70% of the market In the past, near luxury cars have done poorly in the U.S. market, e.g. BMW 318ti, Mercedes C-Class Sport Coupe But the influx of Gen Y buyers into the market is causing renewed interest in near premium cars And OEMs are responding with attractive new entries 9

10 Entry Premium Luxury Segment 640, , , , , , , ,000 Entry Premium Luxury Segment Vs. Total US Market Entry Premium Total Market / R 18,500,000 18,000,000 17,500,000 17,000,000 16,500,000 16,000,000 15,500,000 15,000,000 Entry Premium cars are D-sized cars with premium brands (BMW 3-Series, Audi A4) The relationship between Near and Entry premium is similar to the subcompact and compact segments with a lot of model activity spurring demand in the smaller segment Entry premium vehicles are much more accepted in the U.S. and volume shows currently, this segment is nearly 9 times the size of near premium and even by 2013, it is 5 times as large Volume is very stable except in 2012, when many redesigned models hit the market and volume spikes up 10% 10

11 Entry Premium CUV Segment 300, , ,000 Entry Premium CUV-Segment Vs. Total US Market Entry Premium CUV / L Total Market / R 18,500,000 18,000,000 17,500,000 Entry premium CUVs got off to a slow start in the U.S. but are forecast to grow rapidly (BMW X3, Acura MDX) 150, ,000 50, ,000,000 16,500,000 16,000,000 15,500,000 15,000,000 Between 2007 and 2013, sales of entry premium CUVs are expected to increase 286% but volume is still only 250,000 units, less than 2% share but twice as much as near premium cars Entry premium CUVs will prove popular with Gen Y buyers, but a substantial number will be purchased by Gen X buyers as well Accordingly, many new entries are forecast to supplement the three models currently on sale 11

12 Size Increase in the Small Car Segments Honda Civic 1978 OAL 381.0cm, WB 220.0cm 1988 OAL 414.5cm, WB 245.1cm 1998 OAL 444.8cm, WB 262.1cm 2008 OAL 448.8cm, WB 270.0cm Honda Accord 1978 OAL 413.5cm, WB 238.0cm 1988 OAL 456.4cm, WB 260.1cm 1998 OAL 479.6cm, WB 271.5cm 2008 OAL 493.0cm, WB 279.9cm Smaller segment car sizes have inched up steadily over the past 30 years and especially in the last 10 years Today s Toyota Yaris 4-door B-Car is about the size of a ten-year old Civic C-Car! OAL 430.0cm, WB 255.0cm OAL Overall Length WB Wheel Base 12

13 U.S. Disposable Income Small Car Curse or Blessing? Disposable Personal Income Because of the high level of disposable income in the U.S. market, the fuel economy benefits of small cars is outweighed by the consumer s desire for capability, function, image, and safety 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Units: billion US$ US JPN UK CAN RUS But, U.S. disposable income may also provide an opportunity for an image focused 3rd, 4th, or even 5th vehicle from the small car segments The average U.S. household has more than two vehicles Vehicles per Capita (000s) Number of Registered Vehicles per Capita Chart showing Number of vehicles Per household USA Japan EU 13

14 U.S. Covers Large Geographic Area Impacts Buying Decisions Related to Perceived Safety The U.S. market covers an extremely large geographical area and is widely spread into suburbs around major cities This sprawl requires lengthy commutes at relatively high speed Public transportation is poorly supported as most Americans value their independence Even in the most densely populated cities, the existing wealth translates into premium vehicles, not basic inexpensive transportation (traditional small cars) Wealthy cities and states are the largest markets for Audi, BMW, Lexus, Mercedes-Benz Thus in the U.S. market, population density does not necessarily dictate the size of the vehicle GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc. 14 Annual Vehicle-Miles Traveled (miles) 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Market Drivers Geography Annual Vehicle-Miles Traveled by Region USA Japan EU

15 Size Related Safety Is a Real Consideration Market Drivers Safety Small cars must share U.S. roads with very large SUVs, pickups, and commercial vehicles (Hummer has outsold MINI by 24% since 2002) Despite abundant reports that highlight the safety of smaller cars, many U.S. consumers still equate size to safety When considering a vehicle acquisition, many consumers envision the result of a crash between vehicles Therefore, safety has a high priority when U.S. consumers consider the size of their potential vehicles 15

16 History Has Shown That Even If Passed New CAFE Legislation Is Unlikely to Force Consumers Into Dramatically Smaller Vehicles When introduced in 1975, U.S. CAFE standards were designed to force consumers to purchase more fuel efficient (and smaller) vehicles OEMs were placed in the awkward position of balancing the Government-mandated regulations with consumer preferences The U.S. consumer largely rejected CAFE and continued to purchase vehicles that met their individual needs Thus light trucks exploded and now dominate the U.S. market Legislation is unlikely to force consumers into smaller cars (unlike in European countries) Thousands Consumers Preferences Car Companies CAR VS TRUCK Market Drivers Regulations OEM U.S. Market CAR vs. LCV Government Mandate CAR LCV 16

17 Generation Y May Present a Small Car Opportunity If Their Parents Don t Stop Them First Fundamentally, Gen Y has a need to feel special and make big statements Baby Boomer parents, who are obsessed with safety, retain significant influence in their lives Parents will discount safety of smaller vehicles Gen Y will not compromise on technology or style: Even small cars must make big style statements Technology content is a must Higher base level of environmental awareness than older generations, however: Greenness achieved through technology (hybrid) is embraced Greenness achieved through small size is embarrassing GM s recent Trax, Beat, and Groove concepts had a strong positive reaction among Gen Y 17

18 Small Car Sales Forecast (Composite) Between 2007 and 2013, small car sales are forecast to increase by about half a million units to 3.1 million units 3,200,000 2,800,000 2,400,000 2,000,000 1,600,000 1,200, , ,000 18,500,000 18,000,000 17,500,000 17,000,000 16,500,000 16,000,000 15,500, ,000, A-CLASS (MICROCAR) B-CLASS (SUBCOMPACT) C-CLASS (COMPACT) SMALL SPECIALTY TOTAL INDUSTRY VOLUME 18

19 Premium Small Cars and CUV Sales Forecast (Composite) From 2007 through 2013, the most growth is in Entry Premium CUVs, although Near Premium cars double in volume 1,100,000 1,000, , , , , , , , , , ,500,000 18,000,000 17,500,000 17,000,000 16,500,000 16,000,000 15,500,000 15,000,000 NEAR PREMIUM ENTRY PREMIUM CUV ENTRY PREMIUM TOTAL INDUSTRY VOLUME 19

20 Conclusions Over the next six years, small car sales are expected to increase by more than 21% (539,000 units), a significant increase except that CUVs are expected to gain over a million units in that same time frame The bulk of this increase comes from B-Cars (381,000), while C-Cars contribute a more modest 163,000 units A-Cars are not expected to gain a strong foothold in the U.S. market under the current scenario for fuel prices they are simply too small Near premium cars are expected to grow but Entry Premium CUV segment is still twice as large even by 2013 American consumers are not expected to significantly downsize their vehicle choices over the forecast horizon most often they will downsize by only one segment The availability of fuel-efficient CUVs is allowing American consumers to realize significant increases in fuel economy without sacrificing too much utility Even with significant increases in fuel prices (beyond what we are forecasting) we do not expect to see a European-type vehicle mix in the United States 20

21 Thank You Rebecca Lindland Director, Americas

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