The Impact of FAFSA Completion on Florida s College Going Rates

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1 The Impact of FAFSA Completion on Florida s College Going Rates TROY MILLE R FLORIDA COLLEGE ACCES S NE TWORK

2 About the Florida College Access Network Our Mission: To create and strengthen a statewide network that catalyzes and supports communities to improve college and career readiness, access, and completion for all students. Our Vision: At least 60% of working-age Floridians will hold a high-quality post-secondary degree or credential by the year 2025.

3 Florida CAN s Guiding Values College is postsecondary education College readiness is career readiness College is for everyone College is a public good Reaching Goal 2025 will require collective action

4 Where are we now?

5 Where are we now?

6 The push to prepare all students for college and careers We asked the question over the summer, will students have what they need to be ready? New academic standards adopted July 2010, currently being implemented College and career readiness defined How to evaluate progress defined Strategies for reaching goals were put in place

7 Florida Goals for Increasing High School Graduates Who Earn College Credit

8 College and Career Readiness in Florida As the absence or presence of rigorous or national standards says nothing about equity, educational quality, or the provision of adequate educational services, there is no reason to expect CCSS or any other standards initiative to be an effective educational reform by itself. -- National Education Policy Center

9 College and Career Readiness in Florida Research shows a student s preparedness for college and careers is also influences by non-academic factors such as Financial preparedness, ACT/SAT test prep, knowledge of admissions criteria/processes, having a plan, school attendance, self-discipline, having the strategies needed to pursue long-term goals and others

10 $100 Million in Pell Grants Left Behind Our December analysis showed tens of thousands of high school graduates are missing out on opportunities to attend college Several studies published in recent years have shown the impact FAFSA completion has on college attendance Chicago Potholes Study H&R Block Experiment FAFSA Completion Pilot Project Laura Owen Dissertation Studies on Summer Melt and Summer Nudge U.S. Department of Education s FAFSA Completion Bibliography

11 Florida CAN s Recommendations from December FAFSA Brief Verifying names of high school seniors who complete the FAFSA to share with school counselors Establish community and postsecondary partnerships to improve FAFSA completion rates at local schools Set school goals for FAFSA completion Leverage all college and career readiness initiatives by setting a state-wide goal for postsecondary attainment

12

13 Seven reasons why FAFSA is important in Florida 1. College-going rates in Florida have been flat for the past five years 2. Low-income students who are admitted to college are more likely not to attend than their peers 3. Income gaps in the college-going rates of high school graduates are evident in nearly all Florida counties 4. The summer is a uniquely nudge-free time for college-going students 5. There s no G.I. Bill or Higher Education Act on the horizon 6. Students with limited financial means represent an increasing majority in our public schools 7. College affordability has become an area of contentious debate in 2014 gubernatorial rate

14 College Going Rates of Public High School Graduates 70% 65% 60% 55% 57% 58% 58% 58% 60% 59% 59% 58% 58% 50% 45% 40% Source: Florida Department of Education

15 College Going Rates of Public High School Graduates 75% 70% Asian, 69% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% White, 58% Black, 54% Hispanic, 59% Am. Indian, 61% Multiracial, 59% SWD, 43% FRL, 52% ELL, 52% Migrant, 44% Female, 62% Male, 53% Total, 58% % 35% 30%

16 Leon Alachua Seminole Jackson Brevard Madison Dade Martin Broward Bay Wakulla St. Lucie Santa Rosa Palm Beach Indian River Pinellas FLORIDA Hillsborough St. Johns Volusia Escambia Pasco Desoto Manatee Suwannee Duval Orange Lee Hendry Gilchrist Gadsden Taylor Hernando Okaloosa Flagler Columbia Marion Clay Sarasota Polk Citrus Sumter Putnam Walton Lake Osceola Levy Union College-going rates for high school graduates by income % 80% 70% This chart shows the college-going rate gap between low-income high school graduates and their peers by county/district 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% With only a few exceptions, low-income graduates enroll in college at lower rates than their peers at the county/district level 0% Low-income ( ) Non low-income ( )

17 Difference in college-going rates for high school graduates by income by school 30% 20% This chart shows the college-going rate gap between lowincome high school graduates and their peers by school 10% 0% -10% At these schools (31%), low-income graduates attend college at higher rates than their peers -20% -30% At these schools (69%), low-income graduates attend college rates at lower rates than their peers -40%

18 Public school students eligible for free/reduced price lunched 3,000, % 2,500, % 50.00% 2,000, % 1,500, % 1,000, % 500, Low-income Total Membership % FRL 30.00%

19 College Affordability in Florida Over 58% of students enrolled in Florida public schools are eligible for free or reduced-price lunches but only about 30% of the state s financial aid dollars are based on aid During the academic year, our state processed 122,632 state aid applications, 30,000 more than FAFSAs Amount received in student loans by full-time freshmen: $3,161 ($1,520 in ) 1 in 6 Florida borrowers defaults on their loans, 10 th highest in the nation

20 College Affordability in Florida Florida tuition is low compared to other states According to the College Board, tuition and fees in at Florida s public 2- year and 4-year institutions is just $3,140 (14 th lowest state nationally) and $6,336 (8 th lowest) respectively. The average tuition and fees at private nonprofit 4-year colleges in Florida is higher ($28,087), but still lower than many other states (22 nd lowest).

21 The affordability gap in Florida Families in Florida want their children to attend college 88% of survey respondents with children under 18 believe their child will go to college but aren t sure if they can afford it 31% of survey respondents agreed that college in Florida is affordable 44% said they have no money saved for child s college education University of Florida, Center for Public Issues Education (2013)

22 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Financial Aid Trends at USF 79% $7,484 97% $2,362 46% 26% Average amount of student loans received by full-time freshmen who borrowed % of full-time freshmen who received any financial aid % of full-time freshmen who received any student loans $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0

23 College affordability in Florida 1 in 6 Florida borrowers defaults on their loans, 10 th highest in the nation

24 Recent Changes to Bright Futures

25 Read our recent policy brief on Bright Futures

26 FAFSA Completion in Florida Where Florida Stands: 55% of Florida s high school graduates in completed a FAFSA National average: 57% Florida ranks 28 th in FAFSA completion TN highest (65%), Oklahoma lowest (44%) 59% of Florida s FAFSA completers were found to be eligible for a Pell Grant National average: 52% Florida s Pell eligibility is 10 th highest in the nation DC highest (74%), ND lowest (35%)

27 Florida FAFSA Finish Line Interactive data tool allows user to search FAFSA completion rates for over 500 public schools using different indicators President Obama and the First Lady s visit to Coral Reef Senior High School in March 2014 (73 FAFSAs Completed during/after visit!)

28 FAFSA Completion Trends

29 FAFSA Completion and College Going Rates in Florida Need for current analysis: Further quantify benefits of FAFSA completion for 12 th graders Current studies are local in nature or program-specific Lack of predictive models for FAFSA completion and college-going rates Lack of school-level data for an entire state

30 FAFSA Completion and College Going Rates in Florida Research Questions: What is relationship between a school s FAFSA completion rates and college going rates in Florida? Can we predict a school s college going rates with their FAFSA completion rate?

31 FAFSA Completion and College Going Rates in Florida Descriptive Statistics N Range Min. Max. Mean Std. Dev. Variance FAFSA Completion Rate College Going Rate

32 FAFSA Completion and College Going Rates in Florida Example of 2 variables with no relation

33 FAFSA Completion and College Going Rates in Florida FAFSA Completion Rate Correlation R =.665 Correlation R =.665 College Going Rate

34 FAFSA Completion and College Going Rates in Florida What is the predictive quality of a school s FAFSA completion rate on it s college going rate? Using a simple regression analysis, a school s FAFSA completion is a statistically significant predictor of it s college going rate 44.2% of the difference in a school s college going rate can be explained by its FAFSA completion rate

35 FAFSA Completion and College Going Rates in Florida Predicted School s College Going Rate = (School s FAFSA Rate*0.7) In other words Holding all other variables constant, for every 1 unit change in FAFSA completion a school s college going rate increases by 70%. Or Increasing a school s FAFSA completion by 10% increases it s college going rate by 7%

36 FAFSA Completion and College Going Rates in Florida Let s test the model Predicted School s College Going Rate = (School s FAFSA Rate*0.7) Predicted School s College Going Rate = (0.45*.7) Predicted School s College Going Rate = 49.2% Predicted School s College Going Rate = (0.55*.7) Predicted School s College Going Rate = 56.2%

37 FAFSA Completion and College Going Rates in Florida The regression formula can tell us which schools perform worse or better than their predicted value Excel formula can calculate difference between actual and predicted college going rate based on its FAFSA completion rate

38 FAFSA Completion and College Going Rates in Florida Next steps What about schools with high FAFSA completion rates but lower than expected college going rates? FAFSA Completion Rate Summer Melt? Predicted College Going Rate Actual College Going Rate Difference School A 41.1% 46.5% 13.7% -32.8% School B 56.5% 57.3% 21.7% -35.5% School C 73.3% 69.0% 33.3% -35.7% School D 78.9% 73.0% 35.1% -37.9% School E 84.3% 76.7% 38.0% -38.7%

39 FAFSA Completion and College Going Rates in Florida Other steps Test ways to further strengthen predictive model by adding more predictive variables and Now that relationship between college going rate and FAFSA completion has been established, can we find meaningful predictors of a school s FAFSA completion rate?

40 Limitations Implications for future research What other research is needed to help increase FAFSA completion efforts around the country? Questions? Discussion

41 Lumina Foundation for Education Helios Education Foundation University of South Florida University of South Florida Our work is possible thanks to the generous contributions of our funding partners

42 Troy Miller Sr. Researcher & Policy Analyst Florida College Access Network Join the Goal 2025 Movement! floridacollegeaccess.org

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