Integrated Approaches for Adaptation in Water Resources Management

Transcription

1 Integrated Approaches for Adaptation in Water Resources Management International Conference on Climate Change Adaptation for Land and Water Management Copenhagen, 13 November 2008

2 Presentation outline the challenges the challenges

3 Three core elements Water is the primary medium through which early climate change impacts will be felt by people, ecosystems and economies The core challenge of adaptation: ensuring the ability to harness water s social and productive forces and control water s destructive forces Sound water policies and practices are the key to successful adaptation strategies in the same way that a strategic energy policy is the key to mitigation

4 But also Actions will need to: balance the three Es take place at all levels -- projects, villages, economy wide, global involve both software and hardware

5 Challenges Impacts on hydrology Impacts on demand for water, on water-using sectors, and on the broader economy The temporal dimension: timeframes, sequencing and uncertainty

6 Impacts on hydrology rainfall, runoff and streamflow floods and droughts, more intense and more frequent storms temperature aridity, evaporation, glacier and snow melt, loss of storage sea level changes -- impacts on estuaries, deltas, and groundwater intrusion

7 Impacts on society Changes will affect demand for water Changing availability, timing and certainty of water will play out in all water-using sectors agriculture, hydropower, water supply and sanitation, the environment Changes will also affect the broader dynamics of the economy water scarcity, water related disasters, spatial patterns of development, structural changes in economies Adaptation means managing these dynamics

8 The temporal dimension: timeframes, sequencing and uncertainty Impacts are in the future, uncertainties are great But some responses (infrastructure) are particularly long-lived Sequencing medium-term priorities is therefore complex, but essential and urgent

9 Addressing the challenges Focus on water security as the overall goal Achieving water security through sound water resources development and management Action at different levels

10 Focus on water security A focus on water security provides a framework for developing appropriate response strategies Much of the challenge focuses on managing hydrological variability -- economic impacts of variability today are far-reaching, and climate change will increase such variability The scale of the water security challenge depends on a country s natural hydrology, and its mix of institutions and infrastructure for water management

11 Why IWRM? Achieving water security requires sound water resources management and development Must manage and structure the tradeoffs required in water management Must balance the three Es Must find the balance between hard and soft strategies Must manage demand as well as increase supply IWRM is the process to do all this!

12 Not business as usual But climate change adaptation entails some specific challenges New context. Climate change calls for the re-examination of traditional design and operation assumptions Risk assessment: need to identify and characterize climate risks and impacts Emphasis on information and cooperation: returns to information and cooperation in water management at all scales will increase

13 Different actions at different levels From the ground-up: village/community perspective (how do we protect livelihoods?) Investment projects (what do climate-resilient development investments in water look like?) Economy-wide (implications for spatial development and the structure of economies?) Global (implications for virtual water trade and FDI in water-intensive production?) Water management can be seen as the thread that runs up and down these levels

14 Tough choices Ecosystems, Equity, Economy The hard reality is that trade-offs are inescapable, and climate change will force many trade-offs. Both action, and importantlyinaction, to cope with hydrological variability will entail significant economic, social and environmental costs. These costs must be understood and mindfully structured in the specific context in which they arise.

15 Infrastructure and the art of adaptation Infrastructure investments, and in particular storage, will be essential in many places Some existing infrastructure will no longer be viable and will have to be redesigned Balancing both types of hard investments with soft investments will be the art of adaptation Seasonal Storage Index and Current Storage as a Percentage of SSI Burundi Malawi Nepal Eritrea Vietnam Senegal Ethiopia Bangladesh Guinea Swaziland Mauritania Tanzania India Algeria Seasonal Storage Index (km3) Source: Brown and Lall, 2006 Current Storage (% of SSI) 0% 0% 0% 3% 3% 7% 8% 33% 51% 59% 66% 76% 76% 91%

16 Final 1. Adaptation is about water security Both productive and destructive 2. Water security is about good water management Mix of soft and hard, enhanced information & cooperation 3. Water management is a fundamental adaptation strategy Integrated approaches to water resources management can advance adaptation across the board

17 THANK YOU