Spatial aspects of influence of Climate Change to Sustainable development process. Ukrainian territory

Transcription

1 INTERNATIONAL FORUM " INTERACTION OF POST SECONDARY INSTITUTIONS, GOVERNMENT AND THE PRIVATE SECTOR FOR SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT" Spatial aspects of influence of Climate Change to Sustainable development process. Ukrainian territory Anatoliy Shmurak, SEIA, APEPS TEF, WDC Kiev, Natalia Pleskanko, student, APEPS TEF

2 State Environmental Investment Agency of Ukraine

3 MAIN TYPES OF SPATIAL OBJECTS FOR PROBLEMS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Society Tolerance to nature Stable coexistence Equitable distribution Environment Rational Nature Management Economics 3

4 MAIN TYPES OF SPATIAL OBJECTS FOR PROBLEMS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 12) the residential areas, resort areas, recreation areas, tourism areas Tolerance to nature 2) primary water bodies (Water shedy) water basins, watersheds, named water bodies, coastal line Environment 7) areas classified vegetation and forests 8) potentially dangerous places, places pollution, flooding, mudflows, avalanches, etc. Society 1) administrative and territorial units and associations boundary 10) places densely populated by people of different ethnic and religious groups 13) Area of diseases Stable coexistence 3) areas classified land use, water use, resource management Rational Nature Management 5) cities, villages, human settlements, districts Equitable distribution 4) Infrastructure elements (roads in cities, roads, railroads, power lines, pipelines) 9) place of processing waste 6) Sources of pollution (emission Economics sources, source discharges, noise sources, the radiation source) 4

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9 Territorial localization movement trajectories and frequency of cyclones one cyclone over 5 years. and less one cyclone over 4 years The frequency of cyclones: one cyclone over 3 years one cyclone over 2 years one cyclone for the year two cyclones for the year more than 2 cyclones for the year

10 град.пн.широти град.пн.широти Average trajectories of cyclones, crossing in Ukraine а) in the northern part b) in the southern part град.сх.довг рр рр град.сх.довг.

11 Comparision vs ΔT +4.4 ºC ΔP -44mm (-8%) Kiev

12 Comparing vs ΔT +3.6 ºC ΔP -50mm (-9%) Simferopol

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14 Climate forest model by prof. Vorobyov ( y.)

15 Climate forest model by prof. Vorobyov (2050 y.)

16 Climate forest model by prof. Vorobyov(2070 y.)

17 Results remote analysis - land use

18 Results remote analysis - land use (used a special mask and approximation of colors to the standard mapping)

19 x: y: высота :98 мин Т мах Т Осадки мм Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Bioclimatic variables Meaning Average temperature [1] 8.2 average range of temperatures [2] 8.1 Isothermally (2/7) (100 *) [3] 24.4 Temper seasonality (STD * 100) [4] Max temperature of the warmest month [5] 25.2 Min temperature of the coldest month [6] -7.8 Annual temperature variations (5-6) [7] 33.0 Average temperature of the wet season [8] 19.3 The average temperature of the dry season [9] -2.6 The average temperature of the warmest season [10] 19.3 The average temperature of the coldest of the season [11] -3.6 Annual precipitation [12] 623 Precipitation of the wettest month [13] 84 Precipitation of the dry months [14] 36 Seasonal rainfall (CV) [15] 28.2 Precipitation of the wet season [16] 221 Precipitation of the dry season [17] 121 Precipitation of the warmest season, [18] 221 Precipitation of the coldest of the season [19] 134 Climatic characteristics of the center of Kiev One square kilometer * = 59 measurements

20 2197 колонок*985 строчек Orographic map (height) Matrix, each cell = square kilometer 2197 * 985 rows of columns = 2 mln164 thousand 045 cells 69 layers = values

21 Вид Duration of the season maturation South American flower Solanum tuberosum L. Solanum tuberosum L. Permissible temperature Allowable rainfall (moisture) GMin 90 KTmp -1 Rmin 250 GMax 160 Tmin 7 ROPm n GUsed 125 TOPmn 15 ROPm x TOPmx 25 Rmax 2000 Tmax 30

22 Solanum tuberosum L

23 Solanum tuberosum L. 2020

24 Solanum tuberosum L. 2080

25 UKRAINE: MAJOR CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE 0 С 5 С WATER More cases of flooding due to frequent rains (especially in winter) Fewer rainy summer, which could lead to water shortages A significant increase in severe drought FOOD Rising temperatures in winter and fewer frost days reduce yield losses of crops The potential for greater food production (if managed well) More cases of flooding will cause loss of crops; need intensive irrigation in summer ENERGY The need for heating in winter decreases the need for cooling in summer increases The efficiency of electricity production and distribution decreases The industry needs to adapt to climate change and invest in infrastructure HEALTH OTHER The higher number of deaths from heat stroke, fewer deaths from freezing Increasing contamination on the surface and ozone levels; state of health in cities significantly worse Changes in the distribution of diseases; such as Lyme disease Tourism development, but some places, such as the Black Sea region, are less visited Its beaches are at risk of flooding, erosion, and attack by salt water as sea level rises Important for the world ecosystem, such as forests, are affected by climate change

26 Questions?