Uptick in Leasing Investment Takes a Breather. First Quarter 2014
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1 Uptick in Leasing Investment Takes a Breather First Quarter 214
2
3 3 Feature Articles 8 9 Retail Residential a Industrial Hotels Dr Jane Murray
4 4 Economy Dr Jane Murray Country Real GDP Growth (%) 213 Real GDP Growth (%) 214F F 214 Outlook y-o-y (%) China Philippines Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia India Singapore South Korea New Zealand Hong Kong Australia Taiwan Thailand Japan
5 5 Mixed performance for retail sales, manufacturing and exports y-o-y (%) India Vietnam Indonesia Philippines Hong Kong Singapore Australia Thailand Malaysia South Korea F China Japan New Zealand Taiwan Economy and Property Market More moderate regional growth this year Australia Rental growth accelerates. Singapore outperforms
6 6 Property Market y-o-y % 5 5 USD Billion Q14 $23.1 bill 15% y-o-y 1 Jakarta Singapore Bangkok Manila Tokyo Shanghai Hong Kong Mumbai Seoul Sydney Beijing Melbourne Q14 Japan China Australia Singapore Rental Values Capital Values Hong Kong South Korea Other
7 7 Figure 6: Rental Property Clocks, 1Q14 Kuala Lumpur Guangzhou Shanghai Jakarta Singapore Hong Kong Guangzhou Kuala Lumpur, Beijing Property Market Bangkok Manila Tokyo Growth Slowing Rents Rising Bangalore Mumbai Singapore, Taipei, Chennai Auckland Delhi Wellington, Seoul Rents Falling Decline Slowing Adelaide Perth Canberra Brisbane Hanoi, Melbourne Ho Chi Minh City, Osaka Beijing, Hong Kong, Sydney *Regional Manila Jakarta Bangkok Growth Slowing Rents Rising Mumbai Delhi Bangalore Chennai Shanghai SE Queensland*, Sydney*, Melbourne* Rents Falling Decline Slowing Auckland Wellington Bangkok Kuala Lumpur Jakarta, Shanghai Beijing Guangzhou Singapore (Conventional/Multi-user) Hong Kong Beijing Bangkok Singapore (Business Park) Manila Growth Slowing Rents Rising Rents Falling Decline Slowing Shanghai Tokyo Growth Slowing Rents Rising Rents Falling Decline Slowing Brisbane *For Luxurious Residential Properties Hong Kong Singapore * Manila Auckland Wellington Sydney, Melbourne *Business Parks (Singapore) & Conventional (Singapore) Logistics Space (Hong Kong, Shanghai, Beijing, Tokyo Bay Area)
8 8 (%) China India Brazil Russia CEE SEA Mexico Rest of EPAC Technology Other sectors UAE Saudi Arabia Over the next three years, how will your portfolio evolve in each of the following regions?
9 China 9 Warner Brown Manager, Research, Shanghai
10 1 Thailand Manager, Research & Consulting, Thailand What is the impact of the current political situation on the real estate market and how does it compare to previous disruptions? It Depends Quarterly Absorption - Square Metres (NLA) 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, Regional SARS Outbreak (1Q3 2Q3) Event Quarter Gross Rent - THB / Square Metre / Month Regional SARS Outbreak (1Q3 2Q3) Boxing Day Tsunami (4Q4 1Q5) Event Quarter Military Coup (3Q6 4Q6) Multiple Airport Closures (4Q8 1Q9) Ratchaprasong Riots (2Q1 3Q1) Nationwide Floods (4Q11 1Q12) Subsequent Quarter Boxing Day Tsunami (4Q4 1Q5) Military Coup (3Q6 4Q6) Multiple Airport Closures (4Q8 1Q9) Ratchaprasong Riots (2Q1 3Q1) Nationwide Floods (4Q11 1Q12) Subsequent Quarter Bangkok Shutdown (4Q13 1Q14) Bangkok Shutdown (4Q13 1Q14)
11 11 Australia Forecasting Analyst, Research & Consulting, Australia AUD Billion (%) Dec-27 Dec-28 Dec-29 Dec-21 Dec-211 Dec-212 Dec-213 Manufacturing Capital Expenditure Q14 Manufacturing % Share
12 Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Capital Value Percent Take-Up (net) Vacancy Rate 14F 2
13 Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Capital Value 1,5 1,25 1, Percent F Take-Up (net) Vacancy Rate
14 Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Capital Value Take-Up (net) 14F Vacancy Rate Percent
15 Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Capital Value Take-Up (net) Vacancy Rate 14F 3 15 Percent
16 8 4Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Capital Value Take-Up (net) 14F Vacancy Rate Percent
17 Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Capital Value Percent F Take-Up (net) Vacancy Rate
18 Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Capital Value F Take-Up (net) Vacancy Rate Percent
19 19 9 4Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Capital Value Take-Up (net) 14F Vacancy Rate Percent
20 2 8 4Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Capital Value F Take-Up (net) Vacancy Rate Percent
21 Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Capital Value Percent F Take-Up (net) Vacancy Rate
22 Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 3 Rental Value Capital Value Take-Up (net) 14F Vacancy Rate Percent
23 Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 3 Rental Value Capital Value Percent F Take-Up (net) Vacancy Rate
24 Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q Rental Value Capital Value F Take-Up (net) Vacancy Rate Percent
25 25 4Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Take-Up (net) 14F Vacancy Rate Percent
26 14 4 4Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Capital Value , Take-Up (net) 14F Vacancy Rate Percent
27 Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Capital Value 1,5 1, Take-Up (net) 14F Vacancy Rate Percent
28 Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 1 Rental Value Capital Value Take-Up (net) 14F Vacancy Rate Percent
29 Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Capital Value F Take-Up (gross) Vacancy Rate Percent
30 7 4Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Capital Value Take-Up (net) 14F Vacancy Rate Percent
31 Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Capital Value Percent Take Up (net) 14F Vacancy Rate 1
32 Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Capital Value F Take-Up (net) Vacancy Rate Percent
33 33 Hong Kong: Retail 28 Retail sales growth slows in spite of buoyant visitor arrivals 8 4Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 RV (High Street Shop) CV (High Street Shop) RV (Premium Prime Shopping Centres) RV (Overall Prime Shopping Centres) Rental Information (High Street Shops) ^ ^ Rental Information (Premium Prime Shopping Centres) ^ ^ Rental Information (Overall Prime Shopping Centres) ^ ^ F Hong Kong: Retail
34 34 Beijing: Retail 16 Beijing: Retail 8 4Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Capital Value , F Rental Information ^
35 35 Shanghai: Retail Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q Rental Value Capital Value Shanghai: Retail F Rental Information ^
36 36 Chengdu: Retail Chengdu: Retail Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Capital Value Rental Information ^ F
37 37 Tokyo: Retail Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Capital Value y-o-y (%) Q8 4Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 Sales Growth of Large-Scale Retail Stores in Tokyo Rental Information ^ ^
38 38 Singapore: Retail Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Capital Value Singapore: Retail F Rental Information ^
39 39 Bangkok: Retail Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 1, Rental Information ^ Rental Value Capital Value 13 14F
40 Kuala Lumpur: Retail 12 Kuala Lumpur: Retail 9 4Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Capital Value Rental Information ^ F
41 41 Jakarta: Retail 13 Rental Value Capital Value Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q Rental Information ^ F
42 42 Delhi: Retail Delhi: Retail Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Capital Value 4 3 Capital values rise in the Prime Others 2 1 Rental Information ^ F
43 43 Mumbai: Retail 8 4Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Capital Value Mumbai: Retail F Rental Information ^
44 44 Sydney: Retail Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Rents stabilising in most retail formats Sub-regional yields are tightening Sydney: Retail Rental Information ^ F NA
45 45 Melbourne: Retail Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q Rental Information ^ Rental Value F NA Melbourne: Retail
46 46 Hong Kong: Residential Hong Kong: Residential Units Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 1, Rental Value Capital Value F Weak buying demand in the secondary market weighs on home sales Rents retreat further in view of subdued leasing activities Capital values under pressure due to price discounts in new launches Asset Performance Rental Information ^
47 47 Beijing: Residential Rents decline slightly because of weak demand High-end apartment prices continue to increase Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Capital Value Asset Performance Units 15, 12, 9, 6, 3, F Beijing: Residential Rental Information ^
48 48 Shanghai: Residential Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Capital Value 6, Sales decline in 1Q14 with home buyers in a wait-and-see mode Serviced apartment rents decline by.6% q-o-q due to softening demand Primary sales prices of high-end apartments unchanged as sales softens Shanghai: Residential Unit 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, F Asset Performance Rental Information ^
49 49 Singapore: Residential Debt framework policy continues to impact sales activity Rents decline due to lower housing allowances and potential strong supply Capital values for the Prime market remain soft Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 RV (Prime) RV (Luxury) CV (Prime) CV (Luxury) 4, Asset Performance Units 3, 2, 1, F Singapore: Residential Rental Information ^
50 5 Bangkok: Residential Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Capital Value Less supply coincides with a decline in overall demand Rents increase slightly due to decreasing vacancy Capital values increase by.8% q-o-q Bangkok: Residential Units 4, 4, 3, 2, 1, F Asset Performance Rental Information ^
51 51 Kuala Lumpur: Residential The Ritz-Carlton Residences and Setia Sky Residence Tower Divina launch Rents rise at a slower pace than capital values due to weak leasing demand Capital values edge up with the introduction of newer, quality condominiums Asset Performance 8 4Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Capital Value Units , 3, 2, 1, F Kuala Lumpur: Residential Rental Information ^
52 52 Jakarta: Residential Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Capital Value Weak demand due to sluggish business activity Vacancy rates rise, triggering a cut in rents Capital values remain stable, while yields slightly compress Jakarta: Residential Units F Asset Performance Rental Information ^
53 53 Manila: Residential A large volume of new supply pushes vacancy upwards Sustained leasing demand keeps rental growth stable Healthy investment demand buoys capital values while yields compress Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Capital Value Asset Performance Units 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, F Manila: Residential Rental Information ^
54 54 Hong Kong: Industrial Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Capital Value remains intact despite a slowdown in the growth of key demand drivers Rapid uptake of newly vacated warehouse space supports further rental growth Investors showing a greater reluctance to chase down yields Hong Kong: Industrial Rental Information ^ F Asset Performance
55 55 Beijing: Industrial Overall vacancy increases to 3.6% as space is handed back No en bloc transactions; market yield stable at 7.5% Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Capital Value Asset Performance Rental Information ^ F Beijing: Industrial
56 56 Shanghai: Industrial Shanghai: Industrial Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q Rental Information ^ Rental Value F Capital Value Non-bonded vacancy stable as demand remains subdued Asset Performance
57 57 Tokyo: Industrial Limited availability in Tokyo Bay supports demand for new supply in inland areas Rents maintain on a modest growth trend for the 11th consecutive quarter GLP J-REIT acquires GLP Tatsumi IIa for an NOI yield of 4.9% TEUs (Million) Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q Rental Value Asset Performance 12-month Outlook.8 4Q8 4Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 TEUs shipped per quarter Rental Information ^ Tokyo: Industrial NA
58 58 Singapore: Industrial Singapore: Industrial 4 4Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Capital Value F 5 Rental Information ^ Take-Up (net) Vacancy Rate Percent Government initiatives are supporting Business Park demand Rents increase marginally on the back of resilient demand Capital values rise amid sustained investment interest Asset Performance
59 59 Sydney: Industrial Gross take-up reaches 14,1 sqm; most activity in sub-1, sqm spaces Average net face rents are mostly unchanged across all precincts Transaction volumes of AUD million across 11 deals in 1Q14 Asset Performance 12 Month Outlook Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 Rental Value Capital Value Rental Information ^ F Take-Up (gross) Sydney: Industrial
60 6 Melbourne: Industrial Q9 4Q1 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q Rental Value Occupier activity is subdued, with just 7,4 sqm of take-up Rents remain stable across all precincts Sales volumes are buoyant with AUD million of transactions Melbourne: Industrial 4 2 Rental Information ^ F Take-Up (gross) Asset Performance 12 Month Outlook NA
61 61 Hong Kong: Hotels Visitor arrivals improving across most geographical source markets Total room stock increases by 3.9% y-o-y in 213 Luxury hotel trading performance improves Asset Performance ADR / RevPAR (HKD) ADR Occupancy (%) No. of rooms 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Feb 9 Aug 9 Feb 1 Aug 1 Feb 11 Aug 11 Feb 12 Aug 12 Feb 13 Aug 13 Feb F 15F Additions to RevPAR Occupancy (%) Hong Kong: Hotels
62 62 Beijing: Hotels ADR/RevPAR (RMB) ADR Occupancy (%) No. of rooms 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, ,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Feb 9 Aug 9 Feb 1 Aug 1 Feb 11 Aug 11 Feb 12 Aug 12 Feb 13 Aug 13 Feb Additions to RevPAR F Occupancy (%) International arrivals to Beijing continue to decline Four major hotels open in 1Q14, adding 1,28 rooms to market stock ADR declines while occupancy rises almost 5% y-o-y as at YTD February 214 Asset Performance Beijing: Hotels
63 63 Shanghai: Hotels International arrivals to Shanghai continue to decline The Pullman Shanghai and Marriott Hotel Parkview open in 1Q14 ADR declines while occupancy increases Asset Performance ADR/RevPAR (RMB) No. of rooms 1,4 1,2 1, , 8, 6, 4, 2, Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 ADR Occupancy (%) F 15F Additions to RevPAR Feb Occupancy (%) Shanghai: Hotels
64 64 Tokyo: Hotels ADR/RevPAR (JPY) ADR Occupancy (%) No. of rooms 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Feb 9 Aug 9 Feb 1 Aug 1 Feb 11 Aug 11 Feb 12 Aug 12 Feb 13 Aug 13 Feb F 15F Additions to RevPAR Occupancy (%) Room demand steadily increasing on improving economic fundamentals ADR growth likely to drive RevPAR in the short term Asset Performance Tokyo: Hotels
65 65 Singapore: Hotels International visitor arrivals reach a record high in 213 New hotel supply slowing Stable marketwide hotel trading performance ADR/RevPAR (SGD) , 6, Feb 9 Aug 9 Feb 1 Aug 1 Feb 11 Aug 11 Feb 12 Aug 12 Feb 13 Aug 13 Feb 14 ADR Occupancy (%) RevPAR Occupancy (%) Asset Performance No. of rooms 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Additions to 14F 15F Singapore: Hotels
66 66 Bangkok: Hotels ADR / RevPAR (THB) ADR Occupancy (%) No. of rooms 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Feb 9 Aug 9 Feb 1 Aug 1 Feb 11 Aug 11 Feb 12 Aug 12 Feb 13 Aug 13 Feb F 15F Additions to RevPAR Occupancy (%) International visitor arrivals grow strongly in 213 to 17 million Solid supply pipeline in 214 for the upscale segment Asset Performance Bangkok: Hotels
67 67 Kuala Lumpur: Hotels International visitor arrivals grow marginally in 213 The 157-room Ascott Sentral opens in 1Q14 Trading performance improves on the back of better occupancy levels Asset Performance ADR/RevPAR (MYR) No. of rooms , 1,5 1, Feb 9 Aug 9 Feb 1 Aug 1 Feb 11 Aug 11 Feb 12 Aug 12 Feb 13 Aug 13 Feb 14 5 ADR Occupancy (%) F 15F Additions to RevPAR Occupancy (%) Kuala Lumpur: Hotels
68 68 Jakarta: Hotels ADR/RevPAR (USD) ADR Occupancy (%) No. of rooms Feb 9 Aug 9 Feb 1 Aug 1 Feb 11 Aug 11 Feb 12 Aug 12 Feb 13 Aug 13 Feb 14 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, F Additions to RevPAR F Occupancy (%) International visitor arrivals record stronger annual growth in 213 Expansion of international brands in the economy segment is driving new supply Depreciation of the Indonesian Rupiah leads to a hike in Marketwide ADR Asset Performance Jakarta: Hotels
69 69 Sydney: Hotels Total visitor nights increase 2.8% y-o-y in 3Q13 No new hotel openings during the quarter One boutique hotel transactions in 1Q14 Asset Performance ADR/RevPAR (AUD) No. of rooms Feb 9 Aug 9 Feb 1 Aug 1 Feb 11 Aug 11 Feb 12 Aug 12 Feb 13 Aug 13 Feb 14 ADR Occupancy (%) F 15F Additions to RevPAR Occupancy (%) Sydney: Hotels
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