looking up... UCSB Economic Summit April 2015
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1
2 looking up... UCSB Economic Summit April 2015
3 Looking Up Peter Rupert Professor and Chairperson Department of Economics, UCSB Director, UCSB Economic Forecast Project UCSB EFP Economic Summit Granada Theatre April 30, 2015
4 Labor Market Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate South County Foreclosures Pre recession Peak Recession Trough Labor Force Participation North County Foreclosures Housing Market Monthly Job Ads South County Median House Price Real GDP per capita Real Household Income Retail Sales Retail Permits North County Median House Price Output Indicators
5 Labor Market Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate South County Foreclosures Pre recession Peak Recession Trough 2012 Labor Force Participation Monthly Job Ads Real GDP per capita North County Foreclosures South County Median House Price North County Median House Price Housing Market Real Household Income Retail Sales Retail Permits Output Indicators
6 Labor Market Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate South County Foreclosures Pre recession Peak Recession Trough 2012 Latest Data Labor Force Participation Monthly Job Ads Real GDP per capita North County Foreclosures South County Median House Price North County Median House Price Housing Market Real Household Income Retail Sales Retail Permits Output Indicators
7 ...GDP report yesterday means the Fed waiting game continues...
8
9 a global view but we live in a global economy and the rest of the world...
10 a global view but we live in a global economy and the rest of the world...kinda sucks
11 big international concerns Brazil raised rates again...now 13.25% Russia cut theirs...now 12.5% China restructuring local debt (4/28/2015) Japan issuer rating downgraded (4/27/2015: Fitch) Europe: a tale of two Europes
12 Real GDP Percentage Change from 2008 Q1, Seasonally Adjusted United States Euro Area (17 Countries) Japan UK Econsnapshot.com Source: OECD Main Economic Indicators, GDP Constant Prices
13 Real GDP Index, 2010=1, Quarterly, SA US UK Germany France Netherlands Ireland Spain Italy Portugal Greece Econsnapshot.com Source: OECD
14 big international concerns China restructuring local debt (4/28/2015) Japan issuer rating downgraded (4/27/2015: Fitch) Swiss Franc surprise unpegging (1/15/2015) Allosphere presentation
15 back in the USA... household net worth near record highs
16 Household Net Worth (Assets Liabilities) Ratio to GDP Economic Forecast Project Source: Federal Reserve
17 back in the USA... and stocks break records daily!
18 S&P 500 Index Economic Forecast Project Source: BLS
19 ...and growth in labor markets measures of wealth and income are up and positive employment trends
20 Total Nonfarm Payrolls, Seasonally Adjusted Index (Dec 2007 = 100) Santa Barbara County [ 174,533 ] California [ 15,429,826 ] United States [ 138,370,146 ] 2000 Feb 2002 Feb 2004 Feb 2006 Feb 2008 Feb 2010 Feb 2012 Feb 2014 Feb Notes: December 2007 level in brackets. Source: BLS & CA EDD
21 Total Nonfarm Payrolls, Seasonally Adjusted Index (Dec 2007 = 100) Santa Barbara County [ 174,533 ] California [ 15,429,826 ] United States [ 138,370,146 ] 2010 Feb 2011 Feb 2012 Feb 2013 Feb 2014 Feb 2015 Jan Notes: December 2007 level in brackets. Source: BLS & CA EDD
22 Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Percent (%) Santa Barbara, CA [ 4.97% ] California [ 6.35% ] United States [ 5.51% ] 2000 Feb 2002 Feb 2004 Feb 2006 Feb 2008 Feb 2010 Feb 2012 Feb 2014 Feb Note: Most recent rate in brackets. Source: BLS & CA EDD
23 Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Percent (%) Santa Barbara, CA [ 4.97% ] California [ 6.35% ] United States [ 5.51% ] 2010 Feb 2011 Feb 2012 Feb 2013 Feb 2014 Feb 2015 Jan Note: Most recent rate in brackets. Source: BLS & CA EDD
24 the labor market is it really better? what metric should we use...
25 the labor market is it really better? what metric should we use...quits?
26 Separations Percent, SA Quits Layoffs and Discharges econsnapshot.com Source: BLS
27 and the rewards to this work... have not been equally shared
28
29 Mean Hourly Real Wage: Largest Occupation Groups Index (Year 2003 = 100), Santa Barbara County Office and Administrative Support Occupations [ $17.32, 16.4% ] Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations [ $10.16, 11.3% ] Sales and Related Occupations [ $15.99, 9.5% ] Education, Training, and Library Occupations [ $26.64, 6.7% ] Management Occupations [ $51.3, 5.7% ] Transportation and Material Moving Occupations [ $14.48, 5.1% ] Note: Current mean real wage (2009 dollars) and employment share in brackets. Source: CA EDD, OES
30 recession and the labor market: declines were widespread Dec 2007 Jan 2010 Growth Rate (%) Government 19.9 Employment Declines during the Recession, by Industry Santa Barbara County Total Farm Educ. & Health Services Prof. & Bus. Services Goods Producing Leisure & Hospitality Retail Trade Trans., Ware. & Util. Other Services Information Wholesale Trade Financial Activities Percent of Total Employment, Dec 2007
31 recovery and the labor market: gains across all major industries Jan 2010 Mar 2015 Growth Rate (%) Employment Recovery after the Recession, by Industry Santa Barbara County Leisure & Hospitality Educ. & Health Services Prof. & Bus. Services Goods Producing Government Total Farm Retail Trade Information Trans., Ware. & Util. Wholesale Trade Other Services Financial Activities Percent of Total Employment, Mar 2015
32 ...growth in the labor market where will we see new growth?
33 Total Jobs Added Occupations by Highest Employment Growth Santa Barbara County, Projections 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Note: Among all individual occupations with a reported median annual salary. Source: CA Employment Development Department, Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)
34 Total Jobs Added Occupations by Highest Employment Growth Santa Barbara County, Projections 2,000 1,800 $100,000 1,600 Jobs Added 1,400 Median Annual Salary $80,000 1,200 1,000 Total Median Annual Salary $60, $40, $20, $0 Note: Among all individual occupations with a reported median annual salary. Source: CA Employment Development Department, Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)
35 Avg. Annual Job Openings by Education & Training Level Santa Barbara County, Projections High school or less + minimal training 3,939 High school or less + moderate training 1,144 Bachelor's degree + no experience 808 High school or less + extensive training 493 Bachelor's degree + work experience Postsecondary non-degree award Associate's degree Replacement Needs [ 4,445 ] New Jobs [ 3,083 ] Doctoral or professional degree 103 Master's degree 99 High school or less + apprenticeship 72 Source: CA Employment Development Department
36 ...new jobs where are these new workers coming from?
37 Population Growth Components Santa Barbara County 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% -0.4% -0.6% -0.8% Source: CA Department of Finance Natural Rate Increase Net Migration
38 Net Migration Components Santa Barbara County 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% -0.4% -0.6% -0.8% -1.0% -1.2% Source: CA Department of Finance Net Immigration Rate Net Domestic Migration Rate
39 and where will they live? trends in the housing market Zillow S&P Case-Shiller California Association of Realtors (CAR) similar trends
40 Residential Real Estate Prices, Los Angeles MSA Index (100 = Max Value) Zillow Median Sales Price Zillow Home Value Index Median Prices of Existing Detached Homes, CAR S&P/Case Shiller CA Los Angeles Home Price Index 2000 Jan 2002 Feb 2004 Feb 2006 Feb 2008 Feb 2010 Feb 2012 Feb 2014 Feb Source: Zillow, CAR and S&P
41 Residential Real Estate Prices Santa Barbara County, Index (100 = Max Value) Zillow Median Sales Price Zillow Home Value Index Median Prices of Existing Detached Homes, CAR 2000 Jan 2002 Feb 2004 Feb 2006 Feb 2008 Feb 2010 Feb 2012 Feb 2014 Feb Source: Zillow and CAR
42 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) YoY Growth Rate (%) Santa Barbara, CA California United States 2000 Feb 2002 Feb 2004 Feb 2006 Feb 2008 Feb 2010 Feb 2012 Feb 2014 Feb Source: Zillow Research Data
43 Inventories and Homes Price Growth Santa Barbara County For sale Homes (#) For sale Inventories Annual Home Price Growth Rate Growth Rate (%) Source: Zillow Research Data
44 affordable? even with the recent slowdown in growth rates...
45 CAR Housing Affordability Index California Counties, 2014 Q3 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Kings Madera San Bernardino Tulare Merced Fresno Solano Sacramento Placer Riverside CA Sonoma Monterey Ventura LA San Diego San Luis Obispo Napa Santa Clara Orange Alameda Contra Costa Santa Cruz Marin San Francisco San Mateo Santa Barbara
46 and local rents ok, if you can t buy, then rent...
47 Median Rent Price, by City Annual Growth Rate (%) Santa Barbara [ 34.9 % ] Goleta [ 29 % ] Santa Maria [ 8.4 % ] Lompoc [ 5 % ] Guadalupe [ 7.1 % ] 2011 Dec 2012 Jun 2012 Dec 2013 Jun 2013 Dec 2014 Jun 2014 Nov Note: Current value in brackets. Source: Zillow Research Data
48 help on the way? build more stuff!!
49 New Residential Building Permits Index (Year 2001 = 100) United States California Santa Barbara, CA Source: CHF/CIRB and Census Bureau
50 New Residential Building Permits Santa Barbara Sub County Areas Goleta Santa Maria Santa Barbara Santa Barbara Unincorporated Lompoc Source: CHF/CIRB
51 where from here? although most signs are positive
52 Labor Market Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate South County Foreclosures Pre recession Peak Recession Trough 2012 Latest Data Labor Force Participation Monthly Job Ads Real GDP per capita North County Foreclosures South County Median House Price North County Median House Price Housing Market Real Household Income Retail Sales Retail Permits Output Indicators
53 where from here? some risks... ROW does not recover bad GDP report and Fed responses oil prices drought continues
54 where from here? if the drought continues... already stopped washing our cars no lawns
55 where from here? if the drought continues... already stopped washing our cars no lawns now, the official EFP meal!
56 your current breakfast
57 EFP endorsed responsible breakfast
58 eat well...stay healthy thank you...
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