Global Industrial Production

Transcription

1 15 1 Global Industrial Production (annualized percent change of 3 month average over previous 3 month average) Emerging markets 5-5 World Industrial countries '1 ' '3 Source: Haver Analytics.

2 5 3 Global Trade (in SDR terms; annualized percent change of 3 month average over previous 3 month average) World Emerging markets 1 Industrial countries '1 ' '3 ' Source: Haver Analytics.

3 6 6 (index) Business Confidence Euro area (right scale) Japan (right scale) 36 United States (left scale) '1 ' '3 ' Sources: Institute for Supply Management; European Commission; and Bank of Japan.

4 16 (index) Consumer Confidence United States (left scale) Japan (left scale) Euro area (right scale) '1 ' '3 ' - Sources: Conference Board; European Commission; and Cabinet Office (Economic Planning Agency).

5 Global GDP (percent change from four quarters earlier) World Industrial countries Emerging markets 1996 '97 '98 '99 '1 ' '3 Source: IMF staff estimates.

6 Change in real 6-month LIBOR, percent Fiscal and Monetary Easing in the Major Advanced Countries: Expected Policy Changes, (percent) Tighter Japan Canada Germany United Kingdom Euro Area United States Easier France Italy Change in structural fiscal balance (percent of potential GDP) Source: IMF staff estimates.

7 5 (percent) Global GDP Growth World US Japan Euro Area Source: IMF staff estimates.

8 Developing Country GDP Growth 9 8 (percent) Developing Countries Central and Eastern Europe Emerging Asia Latin America Source: IMF staff estimates.

9 3 1 United States: Employment (payroll survey; percent change from previous peak) Typical cycle (average) 199s cycle -1 - Current cycle Months from peak Source: Haver Analytics.

10 18 United States: Nonfinancial Corporate Profits and Fixed Investment (percent of nonfinancial corporate GDP) Fixed investment Corporate profits '7 '78 '8 '86 '9 '9 '98 Source: Haver Analytics.

11 Real domestic demand growth Euro Area: Domestic Demand and Inflation (average annual percent change; ; correlation coefficient=.7) France Finland Belgium Austria Germany Inflation rate Source: IMF staff calculations. Spain Italy Greece Netherlands Portugal Ireland

12 Euro Area and United States: Corporate Leverage 9 (ratio of debt to internal funds) 8 7 Euro area 6 United States '96 '97 '98 '99 '1 ' Sources: European Central Bank; U.S. Federal Reserves; and IMF staff estimates.

13 Japan: Real GDP Growth 8 (percent change from a year earlier) 1 6 Fiscal tightening, Asia crisis, and banking crisis Bursting of IT bubble Yen appreciation '9 '9 '96 '98 ' - Source: Haver Analytics.

14 Emerging Asia: Real GDP Growth (percent change from four quarters earlier) China India Asean- NIEs - '1 ' '3 Source: Haver Analytics.

15 3 1-1 Brazil, Argentina, Mexico: Industrial Production Growth (annualized percent change of 3 month average over previous 3 month average) Brazil Mexico - -3 Argentina - '1 ' '3 ' Source: Haver Analytics.

16 European Union Accession Countries: Current Account Balances (percent of GDP) Average, - 3 Slovenia Slovak Rep. Romania Poland Hungary Czech Rep. Bulgaria Baltics Source: IMF staff estimates.

17 Oil Price: Spot and Futures (West Texas Intermediate; U.S. dollars/barrel) Spot Futures Price April 8, Source: Bloomberg Financial Markets, LP.

18 6 Current Account Balances (percent of GDP) Emerging Asia Japan - - Euro Area 1/ United States '8 '88 '9 '96 1/ Prior to 1997, calculated as the sum of the balance of individual euro area countries. Source: IMF staff estimates.

19 GDP Growth during Current Account Reversals 7 6 Upper quartile 5 Median 3 Lower quartile Sources: Haver Analytics; and IMF staff estimates.

20 Real House Prices (percent change; 1997-) United Kingdom Ireland Spain Netherlands Australia France United States Italy Canada Germany Japan Source: National sources

21 Housing Price Busts and GDP Growth 7 6 (GDP percent change from a year earlier, constant prices) 5 3 Upper quartile 1 Median Lower quartile Source: IMF staff estimates. Quarters before and after a housing price bust (Peaking in the level of real housing prices)

22 8 75 Public Debt in Emerging Market and Industrial Economies (percent of GDP) Industrial countries Emerging markets Source: IMF staff estimates.

23 Emerging Market Economies: Overborrowing Ratio 6 (median values) Latin American countries Asian countries Other emerging market economies Source: IMF staff estimates.

24 8, 7, 6, 5,, (basis points) Emerging Market Spreads Argentina (left scale) Brazil (right scale),, 1,6 1, 3,, 1, EMBI+ adjusted Argentina (right scale) 1 3 Source: Bloomberg Financial Markets, LP.