A European perspective
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1 A European perspective Dr Paul Nieuwenhuis Centre for Automotive Industry Research & ESRC Centre for Business Relationships, Accountability, Sustainability & Society & Cardiff EV Centre of Excellence Cardiff University, Cardiff, Wales, UK Paul Nieuwenhuis
2 Regulatory drivers: US v EU US Local air quality focus Right to access to cheap energy Global climate change responsibility not at the expense of US citizens Environment is responsibility of government and industry EU Global air quality focus Energy rationing Global climate change responsibility Environment is individual responsibility Paul Nieuwenhuis
3 EU Lagging behind in EVs, because: Efficient diesel gives lower overall CO2 emissions for generating mix in most member states Local air quality only a recent priority....despite some interesting experiments... Paul Nieuwenhuis
4 EV experiments & SNM* La Rochelle (F): experiment supported by PSA, involved issuing 50 citizens with EVs and providing charging points through the town Mendrisio (CH):experiment to turn the whole town into an EVprioritised environment...and several others. *= strategic niche management Paul Nieuwenhuis
5 CO2 is the primary policy driver in the EU Paul Nieuwenhuis
6 EU CO2 Regulation History 1994: proposal by then German minister Angela Merkel for 120g/km; Target date set for : target date moved to : Kyoto Protocol 1998: voluntary agreement: 140 g/km by 2008 (CEC-ACEA), 120 g/km target moved to : 2012 target changed to 130 g/km 2007: weight-based targets per manufacturer 2007: penalty system proposed 1/9/2008: EU parliament industry committee votes to postpone deadline to /9/2008: EU parliament environment committee votes for increasing penalties and speeding up phase-in 2009: April, EU Regulation 443/ : introduction of 443/2009 culminating in 130g/km average for all new cars sold in EU by : 95 g/km suggested by EU Commission Paul Nieuwenhuis
7 Industry s response Make, Model CO 2 (g/km) Powertrain/fuel Citroën C3, DS3 1.6hdi 99 Diesel Ford Fiesta 1.6 TDCi econetic 98 Diesel Opel Corsa 1.3 CDTi 95 eco 98 Diesel Peugeot Hdi 90 FAP eco 99 Diesel SEAT Ibiza 1.4 TDI ecomotive 98 Diesel SEAT Leon 1.6 TDI ecomotive 89 Diesel Smart Fortwo 0.8 cdi 89 Diesel But only 1 with electric drive Toyota IQ Petrol Toyota Prius Petrol-electric hybrid VW Polo 1.2 TDI bluemotion 91 Diesel VW Golf 1.6 TDI bluemotion 99 Diesel Volvo C DRIVe start-stop 99 Diesel Paul Nieuwenhuis
8 EV is still not seen as the obvious answer... Paul Nieuwenhuis
9 Loremo LS (Germany) Fuel consumption: 1.5l/100km CO2: 41g/km Weight: 450kg Fuel: Diesel (EV to follow) Power: 20 PS Top speed: 160 km/h Chassis: aluminium Body: PU Paul Nieuwenhuis
10 Gordon Murray Design (UK) T25: small 3-seater urban car Small petrol engine (660cc) Lightweight materials Vehicle weight: 450 kg T27: electric version Paul Nieuwenhuis
11 EV v IC Results from RAC Future Challenge 2010 (UK generating mix) Paul Nieuwenhuis
12 Electrification of the car path dependence? e.g.: powertrain developments magneto BEV Battery & coil Self starter Electronic fuel injection Electronic ignition Engine managem ent Hybrid electric Plug-in hybrid FCV? Paul Nieuwenhuis
13 ENEVATE EU Interreg IVB project trying to capture lessons from the various EV experiments taking place in NW Europe Paul Nieuwenhuis
14 The case of Norway Europe s largest private EV market is an artificial, incentive-driven market...(co2 is the main driver) Paul Nieuwenhuis
15 The question at Grønnbill Norge: How to reduce incentives without losing the EV market? Paul Nieuwenhuis
16 Oslo Oslo has around 12 years experience of private electric vehicle use EV Incentives in Oslo: Free entry to city Free parking Free charging No sales tax No road tax Paul Nieuwenhuis
17 Norway s EV cluster Move About zero hassle, zero emissions EV based fleet management and car sharing schemes in Norway, Sweden, Denmark. Th!nk EV maker (production moved to Finland). El-Bil Norge maker of the Kewett Buddy EV. Norsk Hydro energy, aluminium, automotive components Kongsberg automotive supply cluster Etc. Paul Nieuwenhuis
18 End user views The Move About survey Paul Nieuwenhuis
19 Move About survey results 1: 12. The car fulfills my needs for transport for work purposes 16. The car is suitable for winter use 2 % 10 % 1: Strongly disagree (0 %) 2: Disagree 25 % 5 % 17 % 1: Strongly disagree (0 %) 2: Disagree 7 % 3: Somewhat disagree 3: Somewhat disagree 50 % 30 % 4: Somewhat agree 5: Agree 32 % 21 % 4: Somewhat agree 5: Agree 6: Stongly agree 6: Stongly agree N/A: 12,7 % N/A: 23,6 % Paul Nieuwenhuis
20 Move About survey results 2: 18. When using the car I am concerned that I will run out of electricity 22. I feel proud when using the el-car as it reflects my personal environmental values 15 % 5 % 10 % 1 % 37 % 1: Strongly disagree 2: Disagree 3: Somewhat disagree 4: Somewhat agree 44 % 3 % 3 % 18 % 1: Strongly disagree (0 %) 2: Disagree 3: Somewhat disagree 4: Somewhat agree 32 % 5: Agree 6: Stongly agree 32 % 5: Agree 6: Stongly agree N/A: 16,4 % N/A: 7,3 % Paul Nieuwenhuis
21 The barriers to EVs are not, on the whole, technological......they are social, economic, psychological... Paul Nieuwenhuis
22 Risk perceptions differ along the value chain Key player Suppliers Car makers Main risks Is the market going to be big enough for me to invest? Will they still need what I make? Why make high risk EVs if IC still sells well? If I go first will I gain an advantage? Energy suppliers How big is this market really going to be is it worth me investing? End users Dealers, garages Government Why pay more? Will it get me home? What about residual values? Will I have to pay for a new battery? Can we make money on EVs? Can we do service and repair on them? Will my mechanics get a shock? Will this create jobs here or abroad? Paul Nieuwenhuis
23 Conclusions Most Europeans do not yet see EV as the logical solution. CO2 reduction is the primary regulatory driver in Europe; Europe s generating mix does not always deliver with EV. The Norwegian EV experiment deserves more attention; weaning EV users off subsidies is key challenge. PHEV will prove popular because of its ability to have your cake and eat it and reduce CO2. Paul Nieuwenhuis
24 Forecast powertrain mix: EU new vehicle registrations * IC will become much more efficient FCEV BEV PI hybrid hybrid IC *This assumes CO2 reduction regulation being tightened over time. CAIR/BRASS 2009
25 THE END Thank you for your attention Paul Nieuwenhuis
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