STATEMENT OF ACTUARIAL OPINION. St. Paul Fire and Marine Insurance Company

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1 St. Paul Fire and Marine Insurance Company * * IDENTIFICATION I, Smitesh Davé, am Vice President and Chief Corporate Actuary of The Travelers Companies, Inc. I am a Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society and a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries, meeting its qualification standards for signing Actuarial Reserve Opinions. I was appointed by the Board of Directors on November 13, 2008 to render this opinion. SCOPE I have examined the reserves listed in Exhibit A, as shown in the Annual Statement of the Company as prepared for filing with state regulatory officials, as of December 31, 2013 and reviewed information provided to me as of February 13, The reserves in Exhibit A on which I am expressing an opinion reflect the Loss Reserve Disclosure items (8 thru 13) in Exhibit B. In forming my opinion on the loss and loss adjustment expense reserves, I relied upon data provided by Robert Roland, Senior Vice President of the Company; Gregory Erickson, Vice President of the Company; Stephen Granato, Second Vice President of the Company; Cynthia Kleist, Vice President of the Company; James Wellman, Senior Director of PI Data Management of the Company; and Stephen Weldon, Information Systems Director of the Company. I evaluated the data for reasonableness and consistency. I also reconciled that data to a composite current year Schedule P Part 1, comprising the total intercompany pool to which the Company belongs. In other respects, my examination included such review of the actuarial assumptions and methods used and such tests of calculations as I considered necessary. STATEMENT OF OPINION In my opinion, the amounts displayed in Exhibit A for the sum of items 1 and 2 as well as for the sum of items 3 and 4: A. Meet the requirements of the insurance laws of the State of Connecticut. B. Are consistent with reserves computed in accordance with accepted actuarial standards and principles. C. Make a reasonable provision in the aggregate for all unpaid loss and loss expense obligations of the Company under the terms of its contracts and agreements. RELEVANT COMMENTS The Company is part of the Travelers Reinsurance Pool (the Pool), an intercompany pooling agreement with certain other affiliates of The Travelers Companies, Inc. as disclosed in Note 26 of the Company's financial statements. The Pool s premiums and losses, net of reinsurance transacted with third parties, are allocated to the Company based on its pool participation percentage. In addition, the Company's net premium and losses include certain amounts not subject to the intercompany pooling agreement; these amounts are less than 5% of the Company's respective totals. Analysis of the reserve items identified in Exhibit A has been performed for all pool companies combined. The Pool writes a variety of coverages whose major risk factors materially affect the variability of the Pool members reserves. Major Risk Factors Asbestos The Pool has received and continues to receive a significant number of asbestos claims from the Pool s policyholders (which includes others seeking coverage under a policy). Factors underlying these claim filings include continued intensive advertising by lawyers seeking asbestos claimants and the continued focus by plaintiffs on defendants who were not traditionally primary targets of asbestos litigation. The focus on these defendants is primarily the result of the number of traditional asbestos defendants who have sought bankruptcy protection in previous years. In addition to contributing to the overall number of claims, bankruptcy proceedings may increase the volatility of asbestos-related losses by initially delaying the reporting of claims and later by significantly accelerating and increasing loss payments by insurers, including the Pool. The bankruptcy of many traditional defendants has also caused increased settlement demands against those policyholders who are not in bankruptcy but that remain in the tort system. Currently, in many jurisdictions, those who allege very serious injury and who can present credible medical evidence of their injuries are receiving priority trial settings in the courts, while those who have not shown any credible disease manifestation are having their hearing dates delayed or placed on an inactive docket. Prioritizing claims involving credible evidence of injuries, along with the focus on defendants who were not traditionally primary targets of asbestos litigation, contributes to the loss and loss adjustment expense payment patterns experienced by the Pool. The Pool s asbestos-related loss and loss adjustment expense experience also has been impacted by the unavailability of other insurance sources potentially available to policyholders, whether through exhaustion of policy limits or through the insolvency of other participating insurers. The Pool continues to be involved in coverage litigation concerning a number of policyholders, some of whom have filed for bankruptcy, who in some instances have asserted that all or a portion of their asbestos-related claims are not subject to aggregate limits on coverage. In these instances, policyholders also may assert that each individual bodily injury claim should be treated as a separate occurrence under the policy. It is difficult to predict whether these policyholders will be successful on both issues. To the extent both issues are resolved in a policyholder's favor and other Pool defenses are not successful, the Pool s coverage obligations under the policies at issue would be materially increased and bounded only by the applicable per- 1

2 occurrence limits and the number of asbestos bodily injury claims against the policyholders. Although the Pool has seen a moderation in the overall risk associated with these lawsuits, it remains difficult to predict the ultimate cost of these claims. Many coverage disputes with policyholders are only resolved through settlement agreements. Because many policyholders make exaggerated demands, it is difficult to predict the outcome of settlement negotiations. Settlements involving bankrupt policyholders may include extensive releases which are favorable to the Pool but which could result in settlements for larger amounts than originally anticipated. There also may be instances where a court may not approve a proposed settlement, which may result in additional litigation and potentially less beneficial outcomes for the Pool. As in the past, the Pool will continue to pursue settlement opportunities. In addition to claims against policyholders, proceedings have been launched directly against insurers, including members of the Pool, by individuals challenging insurers conduct with respect to the handling of past asbestos claims and by individuals seeking damages arising from alleged asbestosrelated bodily injuries. It is possible that the filing of other direct actions against insurers, including members of the Pool, could be made in the future. It is difficult to predict the outcome of these proceedings, including whether the plaintiffs will be able to sustain these actions against insurers based on novel legal theories of liability. The Pool believes it has meritorious defenses to these claims and has received favorable rulings in certain jurisdictions. It is difficult to determine the ultimate exposure for asbestos claims and related litigation. As a result, these reserves are subject to revision as new information becomes available and as claims develop. The continuing uncertainties include, without limitation: the risks and lack of predictability inherent in complex litigation; any impact from the bankruptcy protection sought by various asbestos producers and other asbestos defendants; a further increase or decrease in the cost to resolve, and/or the number of, asbestos claims beyond that which is anticipated; the emergence of a greater number of asbestos claims than anticipated as a result of extended life expectancies resulting from medical advances and lifestyle improvements; the role of any umbrella or excess policies issued by members of the Pool; the resolution or adjudication of disputes pertaining to the amount of available coverage for asbestos claims in a manner inconsistent with the Pool s previous assessment of these claims; the number and outcome of direct actions against members of the Pool; future developments pertaining to the Pool s ability to recover reinsurance for asbestos claims and the unavailability of other insurance sources potentially available to policyholders, whether through exhaustion of policy limits or through the insolvency of other participating insurers. In addition, uncertainties arise from the insolvency or bankruptcy of policyholders and other defendants. It is also not possible to predict changes in the legal, regulatory and legislative environment and their impact on the future development of asbestos claims. This environment could be affected by changes in applicable legislation and future court and regulatory decisions and interpretations, including the outcome of legal challenges to legislative and/or judicial reforms establishing medical criteria for the pursuit of asbestos claims. It is also difficult to predict the ultimate outcome of complex coverage disputes until settlement negotiations near completion and significant legal questions are resolved or, failing settlement, until the dispute is adjudicated. This is particularly the case with policyholders in bankruptcy where negotiations often involve a large number of claimants and other parties and require court approval to be effective. Estimation of ultimate liabilities for these claims is unusually difficult due to the uncertainties set forth above. Therefore, any estimation of these liabilities is subject to significantly greater than normal variation and uncertainty. Conventional actuarial techniques are not used to estimate these reserves. Liability Risk Factors Other Than Asbestos Liability risk factors other than asbestos include environmental-related claims, cumulative injury other than asbestos-related claims and construction defect claims. All arise primarily from the sale of general liability or commercial multi-peril policies. Environmental claims typically arise from coverage written many years ago and include exposure to bodily injury and property damage losses. Cumulative injury other than asbestos-related claims often involve an allegation by a claimant that bodily injuries have resulted on account of long-term or continuous exposure to harmful products or substances. Construction defect claims involve allegations of property damage resulting from poor or inappropriate construction. All these claims can have substantial latency periods and may involve spreading of coverage over multiple years. As a consequence, reserves for these claims are subject to substantially greater uncertainty than most property casualty claims. Workers Compensation Tail The Pool is a significant writer of workers compensation insurance. Because of the nature of this coverage, claim payment obligations can extend for decades beyond the accident date. While the indemnity, or wage replacement, portion of these payments is generally reasonably determinable, the medical portion is subject to future medical inflation changes, future utilization changes, future medical technology changes, etc. As such, this very long period from claim occurrence to final disposition for the medical portion of workers compensation produces uncertainty regarding the ultimate settlement amount for these claims. The absence of other risk factors from this listing does not imply that additional factors will not be identified in the future as having a significant influence on the Company s reserves. Risk of Material Adverse Deviation With the possible exception of asbestos, it is unlikely that any one of the risk factors described above could individually produce a material adverse deviation. However, when considering these risk factors in combination, I believe that the risk of material adverse deviation exists. Recognizing that the Company is part of the Travelers Reinsurance Pool, I am using a materiality standard (Exhibit B, line 5) in making this determination that is equal to 10% of the pool surplus multiplied by the Company s Pool Participation percentage (as presented in note 26 of the Company s Annual Statement). My selection of the materiality standard is based on the fact that this opinion is prepared for the regulatory review of the Company. Other measures of materiality might be used for reserves that are being evaluated in a different context. My response to Line 6 in Exhibit B is made in the context of my preceding discussion. I am responding in the affirmative to the question of the presence of significant risks and uncertainties that could result in material adverse deviation. I am not addressing the question of the probability of material adverse deviation. 2

3 Other Comments Anticipated Salvage and Subrogation I have examined the Company's reserves for anticipated salvage and subrogation shown in Schedule P, Part 1, Column 23. This excludes the Company's share of anticipated salvage and subrogation reserves associated with underwriting pools and associations. Note that these pool and association salvage and subrogation reserves are reflected in the net loss and loss adjustment expense reserves; however, the pools and associations do not separately identify them until after the Annual Statement is filed. Discounting As disclosed in Note 32 of the Company s financial statements, the Company discounts its liabilities for certain workers compensation primary claims, certain workers compensation excess claims which are classified as Other Liability in Schedule P, and certain Other Liability claims related to annuity obligations from Structured Settlements. Pools and Associations The Company participates in a number of voluntary and involuntary pooling arrangements, through the Pool, and reviews their reserves on a regular basis. The largest pools are related to involuntary workers compensation and account for approximately 52% of the Company s total net reserves for pools and associations. The pools underlying reserve analyses are also monitored for the largest pools and associations on an on-going basis as available. Some pools report reserves and earned premiums that reflect losses incurred and premiums earned through various dates prior to year-end. The Company s practice is to review the reserves provided by the pools for reasonableness, supplemented with any knowledge of events subsequent to their latest reserve analysis including activity the Company has experienced in the interim. If the Company s review of loss and loss expense reserves indicates that a reserve action is necessary, the Company will book an estimate of such action rather than waiting for its inclusion in the pools lagged results. Extended Loss and Expense Reserve The Company has no extended loss and expense reserve as disclosed in the Schedule P Interrogatories. Retroactive Reinsurance The Company has 12 reinsurance contracts, 1 assumed and 11 ceded, disclosed as retroactive reinsurance in Note 23F of the Company s financial statements. These contracts are not material. Based on discussions with the Company s management and its description of the Company s assumed and ceded reinsurance, I am not aware of any other reinsurance contract that either has been or should have been accounted for as retroactive reinsurance. Financial Reinsurance The Company has 3 reinsurance contracts, 1 assumed and 2 ceded, disclosed as deposits in Note 23G of the Company s financial statements. These contracts are not material. Based on discussions with the Company s management and its description of the Company s assumed and ceded reinsurance, I am not aware of any other reinsurance contract that either has been or should have been accounted for as financial reinsurance. Reinsurance Collectibility The Company, through its participation in the pool, has no material collectibility problems with its reinsurance recoverable balances. My examination supporting this conclusion includes discussions with officers in the Company s reinsurance department and an analysis that evaluates risk of insolvencies and coverage disputes to the Pool s reinsurance recoverable balances. The analysis includes a review of the credit ratings of the Pool s unaffiliated reinsurers. If this analysis indicates that a provision for uncollectible reinsurance is needed, an uncollectible reinsurance reserve, based on this analysis, is established and included in the Pool s reserves net of reinsurance. The vast majority of the Pool s unaffiliated recoverable balances are reported in Schedule F - Part 3 of The Travelers Indemnity Company, the lead company of the Pool. I consider reinsurance recoverable balances with the Company s affiliates to be fully collectible. NAIC IRIS Ratios The Company s reserves do not produce any unusual values for the NAIC IRIS tests for One-Year Reserve Development to Surplus, Two-Year Reserve Development to Surplus, and Estimated Current Reserve Deficiency to Surplus. Unearned Premiums for Long Duration Contracts With a few exceptions, the Company does not write the types of policies that would be subject to the NAIC s accounting rule for policies with coverage periods in excess of 13 months. These exceptions are neither material in relation to my Statement of Actuarial Opinion for the Company s loss and loss adjustment expense reserves nor are they material in relation to the Company s total unearned premium reserves. The Company does write other policies with coverage periods in excess of 13 months; however, these are issued on a limited basis and cancelable. Uncertainty of Loss Reserve Projections In evaluating whether the reserves make a reasonable provision for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses, it is necessary to project future loss and loss expense emergence and payments. Since loss reserves are subject to uncertainty with respect to future events, actual development may vary from the amount carried in the balance sheet. No warranty is expressed or implied that such variance will not occur. 3

4 My evaluation of the Company s reserves and the conclusions of this opinion include consideration of the uncertainty related to these factors. DOCUMENTATION An actuarial report and any underlying actuarial workpapers supporting the findings expressed in this Statement of Actuarial Opinion will be retained for a period of seven years in the administrative offices of the Company and will be available for regulatory examination. Smitesh Davé, Vice President and Chief Corporate Actuary The Travelers Companies, Inc. One Tower Square Hartford, CT (860) February 21,

5 St. Paul Fire and Marine Insurance Company Exhibit A: SCOPE Loss Reserves: 1. Reserve for Unpaid Losses (Liabilities, Surplus, and Other Funds page, Col 1, Line 1) 2. Reserve for Unpaid Loss Adjustment Expenses (Liabilities, Surplus, and Other Funds page, Col 1, Line 3) 3. Reserve for Unpaid Losses Direct and Assumed (Should equal Schedule P, Part 1, Summary, Totals from Cols. 13 and 15, Line 12 * 1000) 4. Reserve for Unpaid Loss Adjustment Expenses Direct and Assumed (Should equal Schedule P, Part 1, Summary, Totals from Cols. 17, 19, and 21, Line 12 * 1000) 5. The Page 3 write-in item reserve, Retroactive Reinsurance Reserve Assumed 6. Other Loss Reserve items on which the Appointed Actuary is expressing an Opinion Amount $ 7,648,975,444 $ 1,721,718,149 $ 9,093,296,000 $ 1,834,230,000 $ 557,724 Premium Reserves: 7. Reserve for Direct and Assumed Unearned Premiums for Long Duration Contracts 8. Reserve for Net Unearned Premiums for Long Duration Contracts 9. Other Premium Reserve items on which the Appointed Actuary is expressing an Opinion Not Significant Not Significant 5

6 St. Paul Fire and Marine Insurance Company Exhibit B: DISCLOSURES 1. Name of the Appointed Actuary 2. The Appointed Actuary s Relationship to the Company Enter E or C based upon the following: E if an Employee of the Company or Group C if a Consultant 3. The Appointed Actuary has the following designation Enter F, A, M, or O based upon the following: F if a Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society (FCAS) A if an Associate of the Casualty Actuarial Society (ACAS) M if not a member of the Casualty Actuarial Society, but a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries. (MAAA) approved by the Casualty Practice Council, as documented with the attached approval letter. O for Other 4. Type of Opinion, as identified in the OPINION paragraph Enter R, I, E, Q or N based upon the following; R if Reasonable I if Inadequate or Deficient Provision E if Excessive or Redundant Provision Q if Qualified. Use Q when part of the OPINION is Qualified. N if No Opinion 5. Materiality Standard expressed in US dollars (Used to Answer Question #6) 6. Are there significant risks that could result in Material Adverse Deviation? 7. Statutory Surplus (Liabilities, Col 1, Line 37) 8. Anticipated net salvage and subrogation included as a reduction to loss reserves as reported in Schedule P (should be equal to Part 1 Summary, Col 23, Line 12 * 1000) 9. Discount included as a reduction to loss reserves and loss expense reserves as reported in Schedule P 9.1 Nontabular Discount [Notes, Line 32B23, (Amounts 1, 2, 3, &4)], Electronic Filing Cols 1, 2, 3, &4 9.2 Tabular Discount [Notes, Line 32A23 (Amounts 1 & 2)], Electronic Filing Cols 1 & The net reserves for losses and expenses for the Company s share of voluntary and involuntary underwriting pools and associations unpaid losses and expenses that are included in reserves shown on the Liabilities, Surplus and Other Funds page, Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses lines. 11. The net reserves for losses and loss adjustment expenses that the Company carries for the following liabilities included on the Liabilities, Surplus and Other Funds page, Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses lines. * 11.1 Asbestos, as disclosed in the Notes to Financial Statements (Notes, Line 33A03D, ending net asbestos reserves for current year) Electronic Filing Col Environmental, as disclosed in the Notes to Financial Statements (Notes, Line 33D03D, ending net environmental reserves for current year) Electronic Filing Col The total claims made extended loss and expense reserve (Greater than or equal to Schedule P Interrogatories) 12.1 Amount reported as loss reserves 12.2 Amount reported as unearned premium reserves 13. Other items on which the Appointed Actuary is providing Relevant Comment Davé, Smitesh E F R $ 505,847,454 Yes [x] No [ ] Not Applicable [ ] $ 5,914,697,284 $ 257,217,000 $ 243,073,452 $ 307,184,271 $ 579,995,000 $ 81,573,000 * The reserves disclosed in item 11 above exclude amounts relating to contracts specifically written to cover asbestos and environmental exposures. Contracts specifically written to cover these exposures include Environmental Impairment Liability (post 1986), Asbestos Abatement, Pollution Legal Liability, Contractor s Pollution Liability, Consultant s Environmental Liability, and Pollution and Remediation Legal Liability. 6

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