Prospects of Cross Border Trade to Secure Africa s Energies Future (EAPP) Joseph K. Magochi Eastern Africa Power Pool Ethiopia

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1 Prospects of Cross Border Trade to Secure Africa s Energies Future (EAPP) Joseph K. Magochi Eastern Africa Power Pool Ethiopia

2 Contents EAPP Profile Regional Trade Prospects Regional Master Plan ( Generation Mix & Interconnections) Cost Benefit analysis Regional Market Road Map Project Status & Achievements Challenges & Way Forward

3 Profile: African Power Pools EAPP + Libya, BRD, DRC Total Area Approx 8,561,456 Km 2 Population Million Inhabitants (2008) Electrical Consumption 128TWh (2008_NG) Exports/Imports 13.4 TWh WAPP COMELEC Source, EAPP MP 2011, EIA 2008 CAPP SAPP EAPP

4 Profile:Establishment Setup & Location EAPP Setup in in Feb after signing of MOU and Headquartered in Addis Ababa Ethiopia Initial 7 Countries, Tanzania Joined in 2010 and Libya in 2011 In 2006, Adopted by COMESA as a special institution for Electrical Energy in the Region Mission Secure power supply for the EAPP member the lowest possible cost

5 Location & Countries- Sep Potential Members Somalia Eritrea Djibouti Uganda South Sudan Current Members Rwanda (2005) Burundi (2005) DRC(2005) Tanzania(2010) Kenya(2005) Ethiopia(2005) Sudan(2005) Egypt(2005) Libya(2011)

6 COUNTRY Profile: Member Utilities UTILITIES 1 Rwanda Energy, Water and Sanitation Authority/ SINELAC 2 Burundi Régie de Production et de Distribution d Eau et d Electricité/SINELAC ACRONY MS EWSA REGIDESO TYPE OF UTILITIES Public Public 3 Congo (DR) Société Nationale d Electricité/SINELAC SNEL Public 4 Tanzania Tanzania Electric Supply Company Limited TANESCO Public 5 Kenya Kenya Power KPLC Partial 6 Kenya Transmission Company KETRACO Public 7 Kenya Electricity Generation Company KENGEN Partial 8 Ethiopia Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation EEPco Public 9 Sudan Ministry of Electricity & Dams MED Public 10 Egypt Egyptian Electric Holding Company EEHC Public 10 Libya General Electricity Company of Libya GECOL Public

7 General Governance Structure Three institutions constitute EAPP Governance each with Reporting Mechanisms to COM & SCM Permanent Secretariat Regional Market Operations Centre (RMOC) Regional Regulatory Commission (RRC) Based on providing credibility of the electricity market in the perception of - member states, Electricity Supply industries and external players (investors, financial Institutions, trading partners)

8 Profile: Governance Structure

9 Regional Trade Prospects Potential for Good generation mix in the region: Hydro in DRC, Ethiopia, Uganda Tanzania, etc Geothermal in Kenya, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania, etc Gas in Tanzania, Rwanda, and etc. Wind in Kenya, Ethiopia etc: Coal in DRC, Tanzania: Interconnectivity & Mechanisms for Power Trade required.

10 Generation Mix

11 Existing Systems Existing Interconnections DRC, Burundi and Rwanda associated to Ruzizi II (45 MW) Cross-border electrification between Uganda and Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda Kenya Uganda Interconnections Egypt Interconnection to Maghreb and Eastern Europe countries trough Libya and to Eastern Mediterranean trough Jordan Ethiopia-Sudan 220 KV: Ethiopia-Djibouti 283KM of 220 KV Ongoing interconnection projects Ethiopia-Kenya 500 KV HVDC: Ethiopia-Sudan Sudan-Egypt 500 HVDC: Kenya Tanzania 400 KV / NELSAP Kenya-Uganda 220 KV / NELSAP: Uganda Rwanda 220 KV /NELSAP: Rwanda-Burundi 220 KV / NELSAP: Burundi-DRC 220 KV / NELSAP: Rusumo Falls Project 80 MW:

12 Regional Master Plan EAPP Developed a Regional Master Plan (completed 2011) with an aim of analyzing all the data required to coordinate regional development for power trade. This included Generation Potential Transmission Potentials Interconnections Demand forecasting Full Master Plan Available at EAPP Website (

13 Regional Peak Demand Forecast Regional forecast shows most countries have surplus Members have different seasonal demand profiles. Ideal for power trade

14 Regional Demand Forecast (MW) Existing FUTURE TOTAL DEMAND SURPLUS COUNTRY MW MW MW MW MW Burundi Djibouti East DRC 74 1,117 1, ,012 Egypt 25,879 46,570 72,449 69,909 2,540 Ethiopia 2,179 13,617 15,796 8,464 7,332 Kenya 2,051 6,288 8,339 7, Rwanda Sudan 3,951 11,310 15,261 11,054 4,207 Tanzania 1,205 4,881 6,086 3,770 2,316 Uganda 822 2,531 3,353 1,898 1,455 TOTAL 36,436 87, , ,136 19,633

15 Regional Demand Forecast (GWh) 1,400,000 Burundi Djibouti DRC East Egypt Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda Sudan Tanzania Uganda 1,200,000 1,000,000 Generation (GWh) 800, , , ,

16 Regional Master Plan: Scenarios & Benefits Master Plan analyzed four scenarios Sensitivity analysis applied to NGP-RIP and RGP-RIP Sensitivity 1: Only one DC line between Sudan & Egypt Sensitivity 2: Interconnection cost becomes double. Interconnection projects feasible under both scenarios.

17 Regional Plan Benefit Cost Analysis One purpose of regional plans: Improve benefits and reduce costs in the regional system Regional generation and interconnection plan expected to yield highest Net Benefits. Gross Benefits = Savings in Generation costs (Investments and O&M)

18 Regional Plan Benefit Cost Analysis

19 Critical Regional Generation Projects Eastern DRC Ruzizi III, 145, H (2024) Ruzizi IV, 287,H (2027) Ethiopia Mandaya, 2000,H (2031) Gibe III,1870,H (2013) Gibe IV,H,1468 (2016) Karodobi,H,1600 (2036) Rwanda Kivu I, M,100 (2013) Kivu II,M,200 (2033) Tanzania Stieglers Gorge(I,I,II),1200 H,20/23/26) Uganda Karuma,H,700 (2016) Ayago,H,550(2023) Murchison Falls,H,750(2032)

20 Critical Regional Interconnection Projects Ethiopia-Kenya (2000MW, 500KV-DC,2016) Kenya- Tanzania (1520MW, 400KV, 2015) Ethiopia-Sudan (1600x2 MW, 500KV-2016) Sudan -Egypt (2000MW, 600KV-DC,2016] Rusumo Falls Interconnections

21 EAPP Interconnections Regional coordination RPSMP&GCS 13 SCM - 21

22 EAPP Target transmission system 2038

23 Regional Market Road Map Preliminary Stage Stage # Stage #2 2016/7 Stage # Market Current. Country to country Mostly between neighbouring countries Between any pair of countries Fully trading environment Market Participants Single buyer in each country Single buyers IPPs & eventually Multipsellers- buyers (in unbundled countries) Single buyers & eventaully Multipsellers- buyers Multip sellers-buyers & eventually Single buyers Transactions Previous arrangements Prev. arrangements Bilateral Market [BTA] Balancing Mech. Prev. arrangements Bilateral Market [BTA] Spot Market Balancing Mech. Liquid Market Regional Regulator RR With few functions RR evolves to fully established one, by the end of Stage #1 RR fully established RR fully established Regional Planning By the countries taking into account future regional developments Regional Indicative Planning Countries encouraged to take into account in their MPs the regional planning Same as Stage #1 Regional Indicative Planning Private Investors & utilities more interested in identified projects

24 What EAPP is doing.. EAPP is currently implementing four projects in the preliminary stage namely; Technical assistance and capacity building to contribute the improvement of the integration of electricity market of the Eastern Africa countries, funded by the European Commission (ending March 2012) Master plan and Grid code study, funded by AfDB (completed) Technical assistance for operationalization of RMOC and RRC, funded by MFA- Norway and Powering progress project by USAID East Africa ( trading structures)

25 On-Going Components Harmonization of Transmission Standards (Grid Code) Installation and operationalization of the Communications Infrastructure/Database systems Development of Trading Instruments & Setup of RMOC and RCC Trainings & Study Tours Facilitation for Completion of Interconnectors within the region Mobilizing resources for Power Projects in the Region

26 Challenges so far Some Issues & Challenges Delay in the physical infrastructure development needs to be overcome- Capital Mobilization is a key Issue Countries that have not joined are needed for their inputs and cooperation to have agreed position and approach Harmonization of transmission standards is required to expand trade

27 Challenges so far Some Issues & Challenges Cooperation from development partners, and participation of private and public utilities required to realize master plan. Progressing capacity Building until commencement of power market Support for implementation of the master plan

28 Way Forward What is Required? Complete implementation of the Master Plan Filling the Gaps on ability to trade in Each Countries Interconnections & Dispatch Centers Full Establishment of the Regional Market Operations Centre Coordination Systems & Infrastructure setup Full Establishment of an Independent Regulatory board (IRB)

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