The 2007 Regional Outlook: The Bubbles Have Burst! Focus on Atlanta and the Southeast
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1 The 2007 Regional Outlook: The Bubbles Have Burst! Focus on Atlanta and the Southeast Presented by: Jim Diffley & Dave Iaia U.S. Regional Services Global Insight Breakfast Seminar April 2007 Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc. Regional Themes Mature Expansion and Return to Sun Belt Ascendancy The Midwest Has Yet To Recover The Home Price Bubble Was Bi-Coastal The Home Building Bubble Was Not Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc. April
2 Current Economic Performance Employment Growth Year-over over-year, February 2007 Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc. April 07 3 Current Economic Performance Employment Growth Quarter-over over-quarter, February 2007 Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc. April
3 Recent Employment Revisions Dec 06 (000 s) Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc. April 07 5 Forecast Employment Growth, Average Annual Rate Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc. April
4 Employment Recoveries Vary Across States: Date of Return to 2001 Peak Employment Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc. April 07 7 Resurgent Metros 8 6 percent change year ago Dallas 2003 Seattle 2006 Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc. April
5 High-Tech and Old-Tech 10 percent change year ago San Jose 2003 Detroit 2006 Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc. April 07 9 The Northeast percent change year ago DC Metro 2003 New York 2006 Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc. April
6 Housing Starts thousands Northeast Midwest West South (right scale) Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc. April Housing Starts percent change Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc. April
7 Construction Employment Growth Quarter-over over-quarter February 2007 Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc. April State-to to-state Migration 2006 Net Domestic Migration California -287,684 Louisiana -241,201 New York -225,766 New Jersey -72,547 Illinois -68,661 Michigan -65,123 Massachusetts -49,528 Ohio -48,153 Maryland -25,610 Connecticut -16,944 Oregon 34,332 Washington 43,089 South Carolina 47,950 Tennessee 50,383 Nevada 53,105 North Carolina 104,133 Georgia 120,953 Arizona 129,987 Florida 165,757 Texas 218,745 Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc. April
8 Population Growth, Average Annual Rate Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc. April The Northeast Leads in Per Capita Income, 2006 (Thousands of dollars) Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc. April
9 Personal Income Growth, Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc. April Personal Income Growth, Average Annual Rate Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc. April
10 Top Job Gainers Southeast (Year-over over-year percent change, February 2007) Myrtle Beach, SC Jacksonville, NC Greenville, NC Wilmington, NC Gainesville, GA Raleigh, NC Charleston, SC Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc. April Job Growth in Major Southeastern Markets Charlotte Orlando Atlanta Tampa Nashville Miami Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc. April
11 Job Growth Atlanta Charl Miami Orlan Tampa Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc. April Lower So Atlantic (FL, GA, SC, NC) Has Been Top Generator (Year-over over-year job change, February 2007) Pacific Mountain Plains Great Lakes West So Cen East So Cen Lower So Atl Upper So Atl Mid Atlantic New England Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc. April
12 Atlanta Will Remain Dominant SE Housing Market (Housing Starts) Atlanta Charl Miami Orlan Tampa Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc. April Georgia s s Recent Job Growth By Sector February Employment by Sector (Percent change, year-over-year) Construction, Nat. Resources & Mining Education & Health Leisure & Hospitality Financial Activities Professional & Business Svcs Government Trade, Transp. & Utilities Other Services Information Manufacturing Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc. April
13 Home Price Index (OFHEO( OFHEO) Percent Change Year Ago US U.S. Florida New Jersey California Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc. April Home Price Growth 2006Q4 (Percent Change, Year-over over-year) Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc. April
14 Metro Area Leaders (quarter/quarter change) Top 5 Andersen, IN 5.5% Kingsport, TN 5.2% Lima, OH 5.1% Savannah, GA 4.5% Hickory, NC 4.4% Bottom 5 Santa Rosa, CA -2.4% Battle Creek, MI -2.6% Yuba, CA -2.7% Fort Walton, FL -2.8% Santa Barbara, CA -3.7% Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc. April Metro Appreciation 2006q4/q3-6.5% to 0.1% 0.1% to 1.6% 1.6% to 3.0% 3.0% to 13.7% Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc. April
15 Repeat Sales Indices Diverging OFHEO Case-Shiller Q4 Jan Boston New York Phoenix San Diego San Francisco Tampa Washington Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc. April Foreclosures Top Percent Increases in Subprime Loan Foreclosures (2006Q4) Subprime Foreclosures* Prime Foreclosures* Subprime ARM Foreclosures** Unemployment Rate (2006) Ohio Michigan 11.3% 9.5% 1.5% 1.0% 4.6% 5.1% 5.5% 6.9% Indiana 9.3% 1.4% 4.6% 5.0% Iowa 8.9% 0.8% 4.0% 3.7% Mississippi 7.3% 1.0% 4.7% 6.8% Wisconsin Kentucky 7.1% 7.0% 0.7% 1.0% 3.5% 3.8% 4.7% 5.7% Minnesota 6.8% 0.5% 3.9% 4.0% Louisiana 6.6% 0.8% 3.0% 4.0% Illinois 6.2% 0.7% 3.3% 4.5% U.S. 4.5% 0.5% 3.0% 4.6% Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc. April
16 Forecast Largest decline: California 16% Other double-digit declines: Arizona Florida Hawaii Massachusetts Nevada New Jersey Virginia States with no negatives: 13 Copyright 2007 Global Insight, Inc. April
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