UPDATE ON SCOPE-NOWCASTING. HLPP reference: 3.3. Executive summary

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1 Prepared by WMO Agenda Item: E Discussed in Plenary UPDATE ON SCOPE-NOWCASTING HLPP reference: 3.3 Executive summary An update on the Sustained Coordinated Processing of Environmental Satellite Data for Nowcasting (SCOPE-Nowcasting) initiative is provided. SCOPE-Nowcasting aims at ensuring continuous and sustained provision of consistent, well-characterized satellite products for nowcasting and severe weather risk reduction. Recent progress includes Refinement of four Pilot Projects Identification of user requirements for basic nowcasting in the South-West Pacific Initialization of a volcanic ash retrieval algorithm intercomparison activity, building on the JMA testbed Further development of near real-time quantitative precipitation estimates through a webgis server First steps in harmonizing satellite-based aerosol optical depth products over Asia Development of two-year work plans within each of the Pilot Projects First meeting of the ad-hoc steering group for SCOPE-Nowcasting (19-22 November 2013) NOAA, EUMETSAT, CMA, JMA, KMA, and ESA all have nominated focal points to SCOPE-Nowcasting. Despite progress in all Pilots, continuing support by CGMS operators is critical for building the technical basis and the institutional commitments required to meet user needs for satellite-based nowcasting products. More on SCOPE-Nowcasting: Proposed Action: CGMS satellite operators to continue supporting the SCOPE-Nowcasting initiative for building the technical basis and committing on the delivery of satellite-based nowcasting products.

2 UPDATE ON SCOPE-NOWCASTING CGMS-42 WMO-WP-11 1 INTRODUCTION An update on the Sustained Coordinated Processing of Environmental Satellite Data for Nowcasting (SCOPE-Nowcasting) initiative is provided. SCOPE-Nowcasting aims at ensuring continuous and sustained provision of consistent, well-characterized satellite products for nowcasting and severe weather risk reduction. Subsequent to CGMS-41, briefings on SCOPE-Nowcasting were given at the 4th Asia-Oceania Meteorological Satellite Users Conference (Melbourne, Australia, 9-11 Oct 2013). A side event of the Conference focussed specifically on detailed nowcasting requirements of users in RA II and RA V. The first meeting of the ad-hoc SCOPE-Nowcasting Working Group was hosted by WMO in Geneva, Switzerland on Nov The meeting: discussed user requirements for nowcasting, such as from the WMO Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Projects (SWFDP), the research community (WWRP), volcanic ash centres and the aviation industry, and sand and dust product users; considered other drivers for nowcasting, such as the new generation of geostationary satellites, and distribution of software for generating nowcasting products; looked into options for facilitating the use of visualisation software by forecasters; held a joint session with the WMO/IUGG Volcanic Ash Scientific Advisory Group (VASAG), which endorsed the SCOPE-Nowcasting plans for Pilot Project 2 (Volcanic Ash); removed an earlier Pilot Project on generating real-time ocean products in the Indian Ocean, for reasons of eligibility (N.B.: the proposed activity by IMD can be carried out using EUMETSAT ocean products, without a need for international coordination through SCOPE- Nowcasting); developed work plans for each of the remaining four Pilot Projects; agreed on steps to formalize the ad-ho steering group. A website to document SCOPE-Nowcasting has been set up: 2 STATUS OF PILOT PROJECTS 2.1 Pilot Project 1 (Basic nowcasting) This PP focuses initially on RA II and RA V. In this Region, key user requirements as (i) low latency, (ii) consistency in product representation and data format, and (iii) low-volume products for users with limited bandwidth. Near-real time satellite imagery has proven critical for monitoring and predicting track and intensity of tropical cyclone Haiyan. JMA, CMA and KMA all look into possibilities to make basic imagery more readily available, and to generate consistent RGB products. It is planned to exploit the similarity of spectral imager channels of imagers on Himawari-8/9, GOES-R, FY-4A, GEO-KOMPSAT-2A for the generation of consistent products. The Australian BOM is investigating whether to host products from other providers, as single point of access for the SW Pacific, as part of their WIS Global Information System Centre (GISC) responsibility. 2 of 5

3 User feedback from Region V (South-West Pacific) To specify user requirements, project leads of the SWFDPs in RA II and RA V were contacted. The South-West Pacific project (SWFDDP in RA V) identified the following key satellite nowcasting products as required in the Region: Rapidly Developing Cumulus Area (RDCA); Cloud Top Pressure & Height; Cloud Top Temperature; Total Precipitable Water; Hurricane Intensity; Rainfall Rate. These products are part of the baseline products expected from GOES-R/Himawari-8/9. Users in RA V within the SWFDP project have had little experience with the standard RGB satellite composite products recommended by WMO, but expressed an interest in testing especially those related to air mass and convection. Further training events, through the VLab and otherwise, on these topics are planned with users in RA V to see their needs for nowcasting products met. The preferred distribution of satellite images and products should be through an external website that is accessed from a link within the intranet environment for the SWFDP project hosted by the New Zealand meteorological service (MetConnect Pacific). In terms of severe weather thresholds, the project identified: Heavy Rain (not associated with a tropical cyclone): 100mm+ in 24 hours Strong Winds (not associated with a tropical cyclone): 30kt+ Large waves (not associated with a TC): 2.5m+ north of 15S and 3.5m+ at/south of 15S Tropical cyclones that are expected to or already formed. Further iterations with the SWFDP user community will serve as guidance for the development of SCOPE-Nowcasting products for the Region. 2.2 Pilot Project 2 (Advanced nowcasting Volcanic ash) This Pilot aims at generating consistent volcanic ash products, in conjunction with the JMA testbed activity started through CGMS. Some actions have been taken to improve alert services to VAACs, such as satellite-based early warning services for volcanic ash and SO2 (as tracer). In addition, based on discussions at the first SCOPE-Nowcasting meeting and encouraged by the WMO/IUGG VASAG, it was decided to initialize a volcanic ash retrieval algorithm intercomparison activity, recognizing that No single satellite sensor is ideally suited for detecting and characterizing all types of volcanic clouds in a timely manner Different retrieval techniques provide different answers, and a multi-sensor approach appears most warranted There are many basic cloud retrieval challenges: multiple cloud layers (results in artifacts) with the same and/or different compositions, uncertainty in microphysical parameters (particle shape, index of refraction, etc ) 3 of 5

4 Measurement errors and artifacts need to be characterized and mitigated (calibration, noise, stray light, sensor degradation, striping, navigation errors, etc ) Interaction with operational users is required to develop product displays, and to communicate product uncertainty and caveats The intercomparison activity aims at (i) defining the spread in value of volcanic ash parameters of high user importance (mass loading, height, detection) and (ii) defining standardized volcanic cloud geophysical parameters relevant to VAAC and MWO operations, including units and associated quality flags, (iii) developing basic validation standards for these parameters, and (iv) developing a best practice guide for WMO Members. Case studies for this activity are close to being defined, and an organizing committee has been formed, with involvement by NOAA NESDIS, JMA, EUMETSAT, ESA, WMO, and scientific experts. A WMO-sponsored workshop will be held in week of 20 Oct 2014 in Madison WI, USA. It is planned to involve key scientists active in this area, as well as current and envisaged users in workshop, such as VAACs. JMA has been developing volcanic ash products for use in aviation services. Algorithms by JMA, EUMETSAT and NOAA NESDIS have been installed in the testbed, and preliminary intercomparisons have been carried out, for example in retrieving ash top height using the NOAA NESDIS and EUMETSAT algorithms. The intercomparison activity under this Pilot will use the JMA testbed. The volcanic ash inter-comparison effort is expected to benefit significantly from the example set by other intercomparison activities in the meteorological community, such as by the cloud remote sensing community through the CREW workshops. 2.3 Pilot Project 3 (Advanced nowcasting Precipitation / Severe Rainfall Risk Reduction) This Pilot aims at rapid, facilitated access to quantitative satellite-based precipitation estimates globally or for a given predefined region such as SWFDP regions (online through a webgis server hosted by INPE), using NASA and NOAA datasets and the HydroEstimator retrieval algorithm. Several components of the global precipitation product are developed under this pilot project and are planned to be ready by mid-2014: Real-time Precipitation Intensity (1 hour latency - 1 hour accumulation) Nowcasting of precipitation intensity (2 hours in advance with a possibility of 3 hours) using an observation forward tracking algorithm (ForTrACC technique) In the SCOPE-Nowcasting meeting, the need for quantified regional subsets of accumulated precipitation was highlighted. The following technical improvements to the online tool are planned in : Access and dissemination: WebGIS to export png image format with metadata for geolocation To include extra capabilities create bulletins of accumulated precipitation based on pre-defined regions of interest create iterative temporal evolution tool Quality control: Adherence to coding standard 4 of 5

5 Provisions for integration and sustainability: formal memorandum between NOAA and INPE for sustained provision of Hydroestimator. NASA does not have any formal commitment (it is not an operative service), however, with GPM project going on, the provision of this data is ensured Establish a facility for user feedback: through SWFDP projects and helpdesks Retrospective validation activities (not in real time) should be implemented in different regions (including SWFDP areas) to define uncertainty of the different products. Rain gauge data from those regions for a given time frame should be collected during the implementation phase. 2.4 Pilot Project 4 (Real-time Atmospheric Composition products) Activities in this Pilot focus on RA II, with CMA, JMA and KMA being the main providers. Monitoring sand and dust events is of particular importance in Asia, as demonstrated by a recent dust event around 23 April The Pilot was initialized recognizing that users of sand and dust satellite products, such as organizations in the WMO Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System (SDS-WAS), NMSs, environmental agencies and traffic agencies would benefit from harmonization in the following areas: Product content & format: Aerosol optical thickness, effective particle radius, column density, over land and ocean Sharing of validation data and techniques Operational status of products Such harmonization should encompass both current and future systems, given the similarity of imagers on the future Himawari-8 and FY-4A missions. Progress has so far been made in (i) using MODIS imagery to simulate aerosol products from the imager on Himawari-8, and (ii) in the exchange of ground-based validation data between CMA, JMA and KMA. For the latter, significant Asian dust events of recent years were identified, six events in Korean Peninsula and four events in Japan, and initial groundbased AOD data from sun photometry, and present satellite products are being exchanged among CMA, JMA and KMA. CMA gathered data from FY-2 and FY-3 for these cases. JMA provided ground-based AOD data and MTSAT products for the four events in Japan. 3 CONCLUSIONS Despite progress in all Pilots, continuing support by CGMS operators is critical for building the technical basis and the institutional commitments required to meet user needs for satellitebased nowcasting products. 5 of 5