How Will Oil Price Impact the Supply Chain? PESA Forum 2015

Transcription

1 PESA Forum 2015 February 18, 2015 Alexander Robart Director mobile office PacWest Consulting Partners 920 Memorial City Way, Suite 160 Houston, TX 77024

2 Contents 1. About PacWest 2. Commodity Price Outlook 3. US Market Impact 4. US D&C Activity Forecast 5. Market and Financial Impact 6. Implications and Takeaways Client Confidential PacWest 2014 All rights reserved 2

3 PacWest is a boutique strategy consultancy and market intelligence firm specializing in the oilfield PacWest Overview & Capabilities Consulting & Advisory Provide strategy consulting and advisory services primarily to energy clients Strength in the oilfield supply market - Often work with E&Ps or suppliers across range of industries that supply products/services to it Market Intelligence Offer industry-leading, granular analysis of the oilfield Deep knowledge and strength in the pressure pumping / frac market Employ combination of primary intelligence + secondary research Generally work at C-Level or business lead level Unique in market: apply strategy consulting capabilities to turn research into actionable intelligence All key staff come from top-tier strategy firms; consulting and market intelligence capabilities reinforce/inform each other Client Confidential PacWest 2014 All rights reserved 3

4 We deploy a combination of primary intelligence and secondary research and have access to all participants in the oil/gas value chain Methodology On-going conversations with PacWest source network of on-the-ground field experts Conversations/ interviews with all participants in oil/gas value chain Industry-leading experts and technical specialists Suite of market-leading market intelligence products PacWest FracDB: proprietary database of ~100,000 NAM wells frac ed Completions Database: ~1 million+ regulatory filings Primary Intelligence Proprietary Data Secondary Research Market research data sets and reports Company annual reports, SEC filings, press releases Speeches and presentations by company leadership and other industry experts Analyst reports from leading banks State and Federal regulatory filings and data Multi-pronged approach with rich primary intelligence results in insightful and actionable results Client Confidential PacWest 2014 All rights reserved 4

5 Our suite of oilfield market intelligence products supports customer decision-making, including the market-leading fracturing offering Market Intelligence Offerings Product Description Detailed analysis and forecast of global frac services market, including regional breakdown of supply, demand, utilization, pricing, as well as market, technical, and technology trends Monitors and forecasts frac demand, supply, utilization, trends, drivers, and constraints across key Chinese frac markets Stripped-down version of PumpingIQ: regional frac fleet/capacity counts, by pumper, and other key data points from PumpingIQ Play-by-play forecasts of NAM rig counts, well completions, wells frac ed, and frac stages, for 3 years in the future Analysis of US oilfield water management market, including regional supply, demand, pricing, trends for sourcing, logistics, drill/frac, flowback, treatment, disposal service Analysis/forecast of US proppant supply, demand, and pricing, by play and proppant type (sand, resin-coated sand, ceramics); regional pricing indices to be included in future releases In-depth analysis of stimulation chemicals market, including a market overview report and deep-dive reports on 10 key chemical categories (e.g. guar, crosslinker, friction reducer, etc.) Frac database including location, operator, pumper, chemicals, suppliers, and more, for over 100,000 wells in North America Client Confidential PacWest 2014 All rights reserved 5

7 Crude oil forecast to remain below $50 through 2015 with supply growth depressing prices Crude Oil Price Outlook ( ) Oil Price Forecast ($/bbl.) $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 Forecast Forecast: $ Q1 14Q3 15Q1 15Q3 16Q1 16Q3 17Q1 17Q3 Comments D&C activity forecasts downgraded due to a challenging oil price environment D&C activity will fall significantly in 2015, with reductions similar to those seen in 2009 Current forecasts assume the following oil prices: : $43/bbl : $59/bbl : $65-75/bbl. Client Confidential Sources: IHS; PacWest analysis PacWest 2014 All rights reserved 7

8 Natural gas prices expected to remain below $4 through 2017 driven by oversupply in US Natural Gas Price Outlook ( ) Natural Gas Price Forecast ($/MMBtu) $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 Forecast 14Q1 14Q3 15Q1 15Q3 16Q1 16Q3 17Q1 17Q3 Comments After a steady decline in gas prices since early 2014, we forecast moderate price recovery through 2017 LNG projects become less competitive with low crude prices Current forecasts assume the following oil prices: : $3.25 $/MMBtu : $3.50 $/MMBtu : $3.90 $/MMBtu. Client Confidential Sources: IHS; PacWest analysis; PacWest 2014 All rights reserved 8

10 Market significantly challenged at current oil prices given play breakevens; however, lower OFS prices will improve economics US Basin/Play Economics Breakeven Prices for Oil/Liquids Plays ($/bbl.) Granite Wash Core Eagle Ford East Black Oil Eagle Ford West Black Oil Woodford Ardmore Cana Eagle Ford West Wet Gas Wolfcamp Delaware Basin Wolfcamp Midland Basin Mississippian Core Bone Spring Delaware Eagle Ford East Volatile Oil Bakken Eagle Ford West Volatile Oil Eagle Ford East Wet Gas Woodford Cana Scoop Oil Woodford Cana SCOOP Wet Gas WTI: $ Comments Near-term oil price is expected to fall below break-even pricing for many oil/liquids plays in the US Land market Of the set of plays at left, only the Woodford Cana SCOOP Wet Gas play breaks-even under $45 However, we expect ~20% in savings over the next 1-2 years, as D&C costs fall, due to reductions in pricing across most segments of oilfield services Client Confidential Source: IHS PacWest 2014 All rights reserved 10

11 In response to lower oil prices, operators drastically cutting capital expenditures and increasing focus on production optimization E&P Spend NAM E&P Spending: Capex vs. Opex 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 40% 20% 0% -20% 70% 71% 72% 72% 65% 65% 64% 30% 29% 28% 28% 35% 35% 36% Opex Capex NAM E&P Spending: YoY % Capex vs. Opex Comments Horizontal activity drove large increases in completions-related capex from Low oil prices make drilling uneconomical in many basins/plays so E&Ps shifting focus to production Opex will decrease in 2015, primarily due to major price concessions across production services -40% YoY (Opex) YoY (Capex) Client Confidential Sources: PacWest analysis; industry sources PacWest 2014 All rights reserved 11

12 $ $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 Operators have already announced significant reduction in 2015 capex budgets; decline in aggregate spend as severe as 30% E&P Capex (2014 vs. 2015) Select E&P Capex, by Operator ($ b) -53% -41% -45% -21% -20% -20% -20% -8% -3% Comments Most operators throughout the US are expected to reduce spending in 2015 Capex is expected to recover as activity recovers in Expect capital spending to drop by 30% or more as E&Ps revisit budgets over the course of the year Client Confidential Sources: PacWest analysis; industry sources PacWest 2014 All rights reserved 12

14 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Rig count has declined significantly since peak and in similar trajectory to 2008 drop; we forecast a 42% decrease in HZ rig count through 2015 US Land Rig Activity ( ) Land Rig Count 13Q1 13Q3 14Q1 14Q3 15Q1 15Q3 16Q1 16Q3 Rig Count HZ Rig Count -42% peak-trough Forecast Comments Rig count has fallen by 566 units since peak in October 2014 Skewing effect of high grading (slowing activity in less productive areas) make drop in rig count disproportionate to drop in production Trajectory of decline in oil rig count similar to drop in gas rig count in mid Current oil collapse is ~24% in first 17 weeks, versus 21% for gas over a corresponding period Client Confidential Sources: PacWest analysis; industry sources PacWest 2014 All rights reserved 14

15 Wells ( 000s) Frac Stages ( 000s) How Will Oil Price Impact the Supply Chain? We anticipate a significant pullback in activity; the number of wells frac ed forecast to fall 25% in 2015 US Land D&C Activity ( ) Well Spuds, Wells Frac ed, Frac Stages % peak-trough Forecast Client Confidential Sources: PacWest analysis; RigData PacWest 2014 All rights reserved HZ Wells Frac'ed VT/DR Wells Frac'ed Spuds Frac Stages Comments The decline in oil prices will drive a collapse in D&C activity that started at the end of 2014 and will bottom out in 2015 before recovering in 2016 and 2017 Well spuds are expected to start recovering in late 2015, while wells frac'ed are expected to start recovering in early 2016 Frac stages are expected to fall 17% in 2015 and will recover to roughly 2014 totals in 2017

16 Decline in frac stages will be mitigated by trends toward longer lateral lengths and greater stage density US Land Frac Activity ( ) Frac Stages ( 000s) Forecast 13Q1 13Q3 14Q1 14Q3 15Q1 15Q3 16Q1 16Q3 17Q1 17Q3 Total HZ VT/DR Comments Frac stages forecast to decline in 2015, but by a slower rate than the decrease in wells frac ed due to: - Shortening stage widths in developing and mature plays (e.g. Marcellus, Eagle Ford, Bakken) - Increasing lateral length and stage width optimization Expect total frac stages will be 2.5% lower in the last quarter of 2017 compared to the last quarter of 2014 Client Confidential Sources: PacWest analysis PacWest 2014 All rights reserved 16

17 The majority of plays will see major decreases in HZ frac activity in 2015 due to the decline in oil price US Land Heat Map: Growth in HZ Wells Frac ed (2014 vs. 2015) BAKKEN POWDER RIVER MARCELLUS CALIFORNIA GREEN RIVER UINTA PICEANCE DJ BASIN MISSISSIPPIAN ANADARKO WOODFORD / SCOOP UTICA MIDCON SANDS FAYETTEVILLE PERMIAN BARNETT HAYNESVILLE / BROWN DENSE EAGLE FORD / WOODBINE <-40% -30% to -40% -20% to -30% -10% to -20% -5% to -10% 0% to -5% 0% to +5% +5% to +10% +10% to +20% +20% to +30% +30% to +40% >+40% Notes: Haynesville and Eagle Ford are grouped with Brown Dense and Woodbine, respectively. Client Confidential Sources: PacWest analysis PacWest 2014 All rights reserved 17

18 Multi-well pad penetration has increased efficiencies and contributed to lower break-evens across major US basins/plays US Land Multi-Well Pad Drilling Penetration (HZ wells) 100% 12H2 13H1 13H2 14H1 14H2 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Increasing multi-wellpad penetration tends to negatively impact newbuild equipment demand Client Confidential Sources: PacWest analysis; Rig Data PacWest 2014 All rights reserved 18

20 Frac Horsepower (MM HHP) Capacity Utilization How Will Oil Price Impact the Supply Chain? Rapidly falling frac demand and moderately increasing capacity will result in the lowest utilization since 2008/2009 US Land Frac Market ( ) Frac Supply, Demand, Utilization Q1 14Q3 15Q1 15Q3 16Q1 16Q3 Frac Demand Raw Utilization (available) Forecast Client Confidential Sources: PacWest analysis; industry sources PacWest 2014 All rights reserved % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Available Capacity Eff. Utilization (marketed) Comments Frac demand growth in 2014 and tight market conditions led many pumpers to aggressively ramp up equipment newbuild programs Pumpers have scrambled to adjust capital spending and equipment newbuild programs - Forecasts for 2015 net capacity additions lowered to ~750K HHP, excluding retirements Utilization is expected to bottom at 58% in 15Q4, the lowest point since 2008/2009

21 Collapsing demand will result in lower, but still meaningful, frac capacity additions in 2015 NAM Frac Capacity Gross & Net Frac Capacity Additions ( 000 HHP) 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, , ,270 1, Ex- Retirements Retirements Net Additions HAL/C&J retirements of older BHI/NBR equipment Comments Robust demand growth in 2014 and tight market conditions led many pumpers to aggressively ramp up equipment newbuild programs However, pumpers have scrambled to adjust capital spending and equipment newbuild programs We expect HAL, C&J to retire older equipment acquired in the BHI, NBR transactions in mid- and late-2015, after the transactions close Notes: HAL/FTS replacements are excluded from the figures above, as HAL/FTS manufacture equipment in-house Client Confidential Sources: PacWest analysis; company reports; industry sources PacWest 2014 All rights reserved Incl. Retirements Replacements*

22 Capacity Utilization Price Index We expect frac pricing to fall by 15% in 15Q1 and by 24% by year-end US Land Frac Capacity Utilization and Price Index Capacity Utilization and Price Index 105% 95% 85% 75% 65% Price Index: 11Q3 = % effective utilization Forecast 55% 50 13Q1 13Q3 14Q1 14Q3 15Q1 15Q3 16Q1 16Q3 Raw Utilization (available) Eff. Utilization (marketed) Price Index Notes: Aggregate US pricing is calculated using a capacity weighted average of regional pricing indices Client Confidential Sources: PacWest analysis; company reports; industry sources PacWest 2014 All rights reserved Comments First round of pricing conversations have resulted in ~15% average pricing concession Expect further to total 24% reduction in pricing by year-end 2015 Pumpers are working closely with vendors to reduce cost structure, leading to price cuts for all key frac inputs Many pumpers will likely experience financial distress in the next 3-6 months

23 $60 $40 $20 $0 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Oilfield service companies expected to be impacted first as E&Ps seek price concessions Select OFS Company Financials (2014 vs. 2015) Revenue ($ 000s) -13% E -11% -40% -5% -15% -21% SLB SPN PTEN CJES BAS PES Operating Margin (%) Forecast 14Q1 14Q2 14Q3 14Q4 15Q1 15Q2 Schlumberger Basic Superior Pioneer C&J Patterson-UTI Comments Margins expected to contract significantly for oilfield service providers All large players have announced significant layoffs and base closures; however, not enough to offset large falls in activity and pricing concessions OFS actively working to reduce cost structure; all vendors including equipment will be impacted Notes: Forecast margins based on consensus analyst estimates Client Confidential Sources: CapitalIQ; PacWest analysis; industry sources PacWest 2014 All rights reserved 23

24 A collapsing frac price will cause financial distress for many small pumpers, leading to market consolidation Financial Distress and Market Consolidation At-Risk Assessment Metric Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Total At Risk Companies At Risk HHP 0 608, ,000 1,273,000 At Risk HHP (% of NAM) 0% 3% 3% 6% Number of Active NAM Frac Services Providers Forecast 11Q3 12Q1 12Q3 13Q1 13Q3 14Q1 14Q3 15Q1 15Q3 16Q1 16Q3 Comments Many Tier-2/3 pumpers at risk of financial distress, as pricing and utilization deteriorate We have identified 12 pumpers with high risk of financial distress; represents 1.3 MM HHP or 6% of capacity PE firms and other financial sponsors raised significant funds to invest in OFS and E&P opportunities Expect consolidation to decrease number of active companies to the low-40s by late 2016 Client Confidential Sources: PacWest analysis; company reports; industry sources PacWest 2014 All rights reserved 24

25 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% Wall Street expects equipment manufacturer margins to remain relatively flat through first half of 2015 Select Equipment Company Financials (2014 vs. 2015) Revenue ($ 000s) 5% 0% -19% -14% E +9% -2% -2% -20% NOV CAM FMC WEIR ALSN FET Operating Margin (%) Forecast 14Q1 14Q2 14Q3 14Q4 15Q1 15Q2 NOV Cameron FMC Weir Allison Forum Comments Revenue widely expected to decline Wall Street expects margins roughly flat 2015 H1, but we view this as optimistic Pricing concessions filtering down the D&C value chain and do not expect equipment to immune Equipment manufacturers actively rationalizing cost structure, but may not be enough to offset Client Confidential Sources: CapitalIQ; PacWest analysis PacWest 2014 All rights reserved 25

27 Newbuild orders will be hit hard by market downturn; aftermarket becomes increasingly critical as OFS resumes new normal Newbuild vs. Aftermarket Opportunities Newbuild Aftermarket Drilling equipment orders have been hit particularly hard; companies have reporting order cancellations up to 50% Frac equipment has seen some order cancellations, but for the most part orders have been pushed back to late 2015 and early /17 frac equipment order outlook not positive Overcapacity across virtually every OFS equipment category Activity declining sharply, but will continue at ~75% of recent levels; market is in process of correcting to a new normal level of activity Aftermarket orders down sharply as market tries to gauge severity; as OFS gets comfortable with new normal will resume purchases a steady aftermarket demand will emerge Client Confidential Sources: PacWest analysis; industry sources PacWest 2014 All rights reserved 27

28 Equipment manufacturers must adapt to new market environment through downturn Implications and Takeaways OFS Commentary Oil prices falling significantly due to an oversupplied market Activity falling as a result; majority of plays seeing significant decreases in D&C activity Falling OFS demand and pricing will lead to financial distress over next 6-12 months; likely to see many OFS bankruptcies over next two years Equipment Takeaways Do not expect service market balance until 2017 expect weak newbuild orders until then Given limited newbuild demand, aftermarket is now the key equipment market driver Aftermarket/service footprint needs to adjust to new geographic distribution of demand Know your customers financial position; structure payment terms accordingly and be flexible with core customers Expect to see equipment bankruptcies as well; presents opportunities to add manufacturing capacity and/or aftermarket footprint cheaply Client Confidential PacWest 2014 All rights reserved 28

29 PacWest Consulting Partners is a boutique strategy consultancy and market intelligence firm that specializes in the energy, industrial, and resources sectors. Much of its work is focused around the oilfield and the many industries that supply critical products and services to it. With the explosion of unconventional resources in North America and increasingly internationally, the energy landscape is changing quickly. PacWest is at the forefront of the changes in the US and in global energy markets resulting from the development of unconventional oil/gas resources. We work with companies to better understand the market and develop and implement new strategies to position themselves for growth. PacWest Consulting Partners 920 Memorial City Way, Suite 160 Houston, Texas USA Contact: Nilesh Dayal Vice President Office: Mobile: nilesh.dayal@ihs.com Alexander Robart Director Office: Mobile: alex.robart@ihs.com Christopher Robart Director Office: Mobile: chris.robart@ihs.com Visit us at: Client Confidential PacWest 2014 All rights reserved 29 50