KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS PREFACE

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1 KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS PREFACE This December issue of the Monthly Statistical Bulletin contains updates on the monetary aggregates for the month of November, and other available macroeconomic data. We thank all those who have contributed to the information contained in this Bulletin. Item 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1(p) GDP Growth and Prices (percent change) GDP at Constant(2) Price (a), (b) Consumer Prices (c) Wholesale Prices (India) (d) Government Budget (in millions of Nu.) (e) Total Revenue & Grants Of which: Foreign Grants Total Expenditure and Net Lending Current Balance Overall Balance Money and Credit (percent change, end of period) Board Money, M Credit to Private Sector Interest Rates (end of period) One Year Deposits Lending Rate days RMA Bills/ Treasury Bills Balance of Payments (in millions of Nu.) Trade Balance With India Current Account Balance (In percent of GDP) With India (In percent of GDP) Foreign Aid (Concessional Loans net) Of which: India Errors and Omissions Overall Balance (In percent of GDP) External Indicators (end of period) Gross Official Reserves (in Millions of USD) (In months of merchandise imports) External Debt (percent of GDP) Debt-Service Ratio (f) Memorandum Items: Reserve Money, MO (in millions of Nu.) Of which Banks' Deposits Money Multiplier (M2/MO) Income Velocity (GDP/M2) a) On a calendar year basis, e.g., the entry under 26/7 is for b) Source: National Accounts Statistics (27). NSB - c) Data till 22/3 are based on the old halr-yearly average CPI of the NSB (1979 base year). This was replaced by a new quarterly CPI with a revised basket and Q3 of 23 as the base. Rates of change (year-to-year) for the quarterly CPI are therefore not available prior to Q3, 24. The CPI reflected in this table is for the last quarter of the fiscal year. - d) Source: Reserve Bank of India. Wholesale Price Index of all commodities,24-5 base; reference period same as for Bhutan CPI. - e) Data for 29/1 are revised estimates. - f) Debt service payments in percent of exports of goods and services. 1 2

2 COMMENTARIES MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS *) Developments in monetary aggregates are compared on a month to month basis. The annual growth of broad money (M2) slowed down to 26.7 percent as of November from 29.8 percent as of October. This is mainly due to slower growth in net foreign assets (NFA). 1. Component side: The growth rate of M1 increased from 29.3 percent to 34.6 percent in the review month. Of M1, both currency in circulation and demand deposits increased from 1.5 to 14.5 percent and 35.3 to 4.9 percent, respectively. Annual Growth of M1, M2 & Quasi Money M2 M1 QM Aug ' Sep Oct Nov Aug '1 Sep Oct Nov -1 Meanwhile, the growth in time deposits slowed down from 32.5 percent to 2.1 percent, while the foreign currency deposits increased from negative annual growth of 1 percent to 1.7 percent during the review month. As a result the growth in quasi money slowed down from 3.3 percent to 19.5 percent. Lower growth in time deposits is the main contributing factor for the slowdown in the growth of quasi money. 2.Counterpart side: The growth in NFA, a major counterpart of money supply, slowed down to 4.2 percent from 15 percent, mainly due to slower growth in convertible foreign currency. In absolute terms, NFA totalled Nu.41.9 billion in November, of which, convertible foreign currency assets increased to Nu.39.2 billion from Nu billion, while Indian Rupee assets improved to 2.7 billion from 1 billion. *) For monetary analysis, balance sheet data are classified within the framework of the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual 2, IMF. Please note that the data featured here is not directly comparable to those produced by the Financial Regulation and Supervision Department of the RMA. Percent Money Growth (annual change) M2 M1 QM. On the other hand, the growth in domestic credit (DC) increased to 66.5 percent from 52.5 percent during the review month. Meanwhile, the credit to the private sector decreased from 44.8 percent to 42.4 percent. Meanwhile, growth in other items net (OIN) continued to increase from 5.6 percent in October to 1.3 percent during the review month. Performance of Commercial Banks The total assets of the commercial banks increased to Nu.59 billion as of November from Nu.44.5 billion for the same period last year, recording an annual growth rate of 32.6 percent. As indicated in the adjacent table, commercial banks total reserves held in RMA totalled Nu.26.3 billion in November, accounting for 44.5 percent of the commercial banks total assets. Of the total reserves, 34 percent were absorbed through CRR, 59.9 percent were held in the form of other deposits, while 2.3 percent and 3.8 percent were held in the form of cash and Annual Growth in M2 & its Counterparts M2 NFA DC OIN Aug ' (2.9) Sep (.2) Oct Nov Commercial Banks' Reserves with the RMA Millions of Nu. Item Aug Sep Oct Nov Total Cash CRR RMA Bills/Govt.Tbills Other deposits % of total Cash CRR RMA Bills/Govt.Tbills Other deposits Treasury Bills, respectively. In addition to these reserves (excluding cash in hand), the commercial banks held Nu.2.7 billion worth of foreign assets (both in Indian Rupees and convertible foreign currency) during November. *) The issue of RMA Bills was discontinued w.e.f. December 14, 29 and has been replaced by Government Treasury Bills (Govt.T.Bills) thereafter. percent Growth in M2 & its Counterparts (annual change) Aug '1 Sep Oct Nov NFA DC OIN M2 3 4

3 GROSS INTERNATIONAL RESERVES Furthermore, during Foreign Assets of Commercial Banks (*) the review month, the Millions of Nu. commercial banks Item credit to asset and Aug Sep Oct Nov credit to deposit ratios Total were recorded at 48.6 Rupee percent and 58.3 Convertible currency percent, against 52.9 % of total percent and 61.9 percent, respectively. Of the total deposit Rupee Convertible currency liabilities of the commercial banks *) Foreign assets of commercial banks includes cash in hand & cash with banks (Nu.49.2 billion as of November ), 36.3 percent were held by individuals, 37.9 percent by government corporations and the remaining were held by other sectors of the economy. Performance of Non Bank Financial Institutions (NBFIs) * The total assets of the NBFIs stood at Nu.5.8 billion as of November. The NBFIs overall credit portfolio accounted for 9.6 percent of their total assets. Sectoral Credit by the Financial Institutions Annual growth of gross international reserves as of November decreased from 17.6 percent (USD million as of October ) to 6.5 percent (USD million). Of the total, convertible currency reserves grew by 5.7 percent (y-o-y) to USD million and Indian Rupee reserves increased by 8.9 percent (y-o-y) to. 5.7 billion. As of November, the overall reserves were sufficient to finance 12 months of imports (including service imports). Gross International Reserves End of Period 27/8 28/9 29/1 Sep Oct Nov Total (millions of USD) Rupee (millions of INR) Convertible currency (millions of USD) Months of imports *) Total (including services imports) Total (excluding services imports) Rupee Convertible currency *) Data for 29/1 and subsequent months are based on provisional import figures for 29/1 until such time import figures are available for /11. Note: Total reserves are inclusive of the holdings of the five commercial banks - Please refer to Table 5 for breakdown of data. SALES OF MAJOR POWER PROJECTS The growth (y-o-y) in the total credit of the financial institutions grew by 28.8 percent (Nu.33.5 billion) during November. Of this, 26.3 percent were invested in the building and construction sector, followed by trade and commerce (16.7 percent), manufacturing (15.9 percent), personal loans (15.2 percent), while the remaining credit were invested in other sectors of the economy. *) NBFIs includes RICBL and BIL Total export earnings from the Tala, Chukha and Kurichhu hydropower plants dropped by 53.2 percent to Nu million as of November from the previous month, but grew by 7 percent from the same month in 29. Similarly, with fall in domestic sales for 2 of 4 power plants, total domestic sales totalled Nu.63.5 million, falling by 21.6 percent over November 29 levels Nu. millions Export Earnings from Hydropower Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

4 TOURIST ARRIVALS / REVENUE (*) According to the Tourism Council of Bhutan, during the month of November, convertible currency tourist arrivals declined by 44.6 percent to 3,265 tourists, but which was 25.2 percent greater than arrivals during the same month in 29. In USD millions 12 1 tandem with the development in tourist arrivals, gross revenue earnings fell to USD 4.6 million from USD 8.9 million during the month of October. BTN/USD EXCHANGE RATE Foreign Exchange Earnings from Tourism Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec INTEREST RATES As of November, the deposit rates (3 months to 1 year) of the commercial banks (BOBL, BNBL, T-Bank Ltd, DPNBL and BDFCL) remained within the percent range, while the corporate deposit rates of the commercial banks ranged between percent. However, the lending rates of the commercial banks continue to range between percent. (For details please refer Table 11). The prime lending rates (PLR) of the five major Indian commercial banks during the last week of November remained within the percent range, which was revised from the percent range during the last week of June. Meanwhile, deposit rates with banks in India have remained between percent, which was revised in the first week of October. OTHER MACRO ECONOMIC INDICATORS The exchange rate of the Ngultrum visà-vis the US Dollar 47.5 averaged Nu per US Dollar 46.5 during November 46., depreciating by 1.3 percent over the previous month of October, and appreciating by percent 43. compared to the average exchange rate corresponding to the month of November 29. BTN per USD Exchange Rate BTN vis a vis USD (Monthly Average) Nov'9 Dec Jan '1 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Real GDP growth increased to 6.7 percent in 29, from 4.7 percent during 28. Inflation, as measured by the year-on-year change in the consumer price index, increased to 9.1 percent in the fourth quarter of, from 4.1 percent for the same quarter of 29. As of December, the purchasing power of Ngultrum was recorded at 66 Chhetrum. In Bhutan s balance of payments (BOP), the current account recorded a deficit of Nu.8.8 billion (14.3 percent of GDP) in 29/1, compared to a deficit of Nu million (1.7 percent of GDP) in fiscal year 28/9. Merchandise imports grew by 35.7 percent compared to a 3 percent growth in exports, resulting in an overall trade deficit of Nu.13.9 billion as of 29/1. Deficits in the services and income accounts deteriorated to Nu.1 billion and Nu.2.7 billion, respectively. 7 8

5 DATA Table 1. Monetary Survey- Aggregates and Components With the onset of construction works on the Punatsangchhu-I hydropower project, related-capital transfers and government loan disbursements increased substantially during the year. This was supplemented by an increase in government borrowings from the State Bank of India through Overdraft Facility, resulting an expansion of Bhutan s capital and financial account balance by 38.5 percent from a surplus of Nu.5.1 billion, to Nu.7 billion as of 29/1. Meanwhile, the country s total outstanding external debt as of September stood at USD 827 million. Of this total, USD million were outstanding convertible currency debt and an equivalent of USD million (.21.2 billion) were Indian Rupee debt. Debt servicing as of September, amounted to USD 3.2 million on convertible currency debt and 5.1 billion on Rupee denominated debt. External Debt Indicators Debt Outstanding (in millions) Total (USD) 26/ / / / Sept' Convertible Currency (USD) Indian Rupee 18, , ,4.7 22, ,184.2 Debt/GDP ratio * Total Convertible Currency loan Indian Rupee loan Debt service ratio ** Total Convertible Currency loan Indian Rupee loan * Based on calendar year GDP figures. Example, the 28 GDP figure is used to calculate the ratio for 28/9. ** Debt service payments as a percent of the export of goods and services. The total debt service ratio represents the total debt service payments (i.e. on convertible currency & Rupee loans) as a percentage of the total export earnings (from India & other countries). Convertible currency debt service ratio is the debt servicing on convertible currency loans as a percentage of the export earnings from countries other than India. Similarly, the Indian Rupee debt service ratio is the debt servicing on Indian Rupee loans as a percentage of the export earnings from India. The debt service ratio for the latest period is calculated based on the previous year's export of goods and services. Source: Department of Public Accounts & private sector enterprises. End of Period M2 Total M1 Total Of which:1) Demand deposits Currency in circ.outside banks Total Current account Millions of Ngultrum Savings deposits Quasi-Money 27 27, , , , ,19.7 4, , , , , , , , , , ,81.4 1, Nov 43, , , ,698. 9, , , ,327. 1,389.6 Dec 43, , , , , , ,24. 2, Jan 41, ,63.4 5, ,527. 9,436. 6,91.1 2, , ,121.8 Feb 44, , , ,41. 12, , , , ,29.1 Mar 44, , ,78. 18, , ,99.3 2, , ,235.3 Apr 42, , , ,48.5 1, , , , ,188.2 May 41, ,43.9 4, , , , , , ,445.2 Jun 41, , , , , , , ,939. 1,31.9 Jul 43, , , , ,252. 7, , ,44.4 1,191.7 Aug 45, ,98.1 5, , , , , , ,192.8 Sep 5, , , , ,92.2 8, , , ,385.1 Oct 51, , , , , , , , ,236. Nov 54, ,75.7 5, , , ,61. 27, , ,538.8 Percentage change on the previous year (15.9) (18.8) (7.1) 18.9 (13.) (24.9) Nov (8.8) Dec (8.6) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Total Time deposits Foreign currency deposits 9 1

6 Table 2. Monetary Survey- M2 and its Counterparts (*) M2 Foreign assets (net) Domestic assets (net) Domestic credit Public sector Other public sector (1) Private sector (2) Other items (net)(3) End of period Total Total Total Total Governme nt (net) Millions of Ngultrum 27 27, ,888.3 (218.3) 1, (2,955.) 1, , , ,81.9 (4,697.5) 1, (7,417.9) 1, , Nov 43, , , , (3,85.2) 1, ,13.1 Dec 43, ,75. 4, , (3,239.3) 1, ,975.5 Jan 41, , ,6.2 19, (2,251.6) 1, ,63.5 Feb 44, , , , (2,232.6) 1, ,928.7 Mar 43, , , , (2,612.8) 1, ,66.2 Apr 42, , , , (4,581.2) 1, ,93.5 May 41, , , , (4,193.8) ,357.9 Jun 41, , , , (4,47.2) ,269. Jul 43, ,66.3 8, , (2,668.5) ,178.5 Aug 45, , , , (6,26.8) ,966. Sep 5, ,143. 9, , (2,473.6) ,861.5 Oct 51, , , , (2,666.1) ,418.8 Nov 54, , , , (431.) ,451.7 Percentage change on the previous year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov (*) Discrepancies in the results are due to rounding. 1)Government Corporations. 2)Including Joint Corporations. 3) Taking into consideration RMA Bills and the Reserve Repurchase (plus) and claims on NMFIs (minus). 4 3 Contribution to M2 (Counterparts) Table 3. Deposit Liabilities of the Commercial Banks Item Sep Oct Nov Total Deposits Individuals Govt. Corps Govt Others Demand deposits Individuals Govt. Corps Govt Others Time Deposits Individuals Govt. Corps Govt Others % of total deposits Individuals Govt. Corps Govt Others Demand deposits Individuals Govt. Corps Govt Others Time Deposits Individuals Govt. Corps Govt Others Percent Aug '1 Sep Oct Nov NFA C (rest) C (Pvt) OIN M

7 Table 4. Sectoral Credit by the Financial Institutions Nu. in Millions/End of Period Sub sector Sep Oct Nov Agriculture Service and Tourism Manufacturing Building & Construction Trade & Commerce Transport (Heavy) Transport (Light) Personal Loans Staff Loan EDP Loans Small Business and Artisan Schemes Loan Against Shares Total Nu. in million Major Credit to Private Sector Aug-1 Sep-1 Oct-1 Nov-1 Tourism/Services Mfg. Construction End of Period Item Table 5. Gross International Reserves (*) Millions of Indian Rupees Table 6. Summary of the Consumer Price Index (*) Third Quarter of 23 = 1 Period Weight in Item percent % Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Food Non-food Total Percentage change on the previous year Food Non-food Total PPN Source : National Statistics Bureau. -(*) The new index refers to the average prices during the respective quarters. However, prior to Q3, 23, no quarterly price indices were calculated and, therefore, for Q3 and Q4, 23, and Q1 and Q2, 24, year-on-year rates of change of the CPI cannot be computed. The indices prior to Q3, 23 represent half-yearly averages. The quarterly index and the half-yearly index cannot be directly compared because of a different periodicity and a considerable break in continuity (i.e., the expenditure basket has been completely changed). -1) 23 Household Income and Expenditure Survey. Includes rent. Index Sep Oct Nov 1.Rupee reserves Royal Monetary Authority of Bhutan Bank of Bhutan Limited Bhutan National Bank Limited TBank Limited Druk PNB Limited Millions of US Dollar 2.Convertible currency reserves Royal Monetary Authority of Bhutan (1) Bank of Bhutan Limited Bhutan National Bank Limited TBank Limited Druk PNB Limited Total reserves (1+2) (*) Excludes cash in hand of commercial banks;(1) Includes reserve tranche position in the Fund. **)Reserve figures revised from june 25 till date-imf's Reserve position not included in the RMA's CC figures

8 Period Table 7. Operations of Major Power Projects Production (Millions of Units) Export Sales (Nu. Millions) (1) Domestic Sales (Nu. Millions) (2) Total Basochhu ChukhaKurichhu Tala Total Chukha Kurichhu Tala Total Basochhu Chukha Kurichhu Tala Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Percent change on the previous year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Source: DGPC (1) Power tariff for export to India: Nu.2 per unit for Chhukha (revised from Nu.1.5 per unit from Jan. 25); Nu.1.8 per unit for Kurichhu (revised from Nu.1.75 per unit from Jan. 28) & Tala (2) Power tariff for domestic sales: Nu..13 per unit for royalty energy (15% of total to government; revised from Nu..3 per unit from August ) and Nu.1.2 for the rest (industrial use mainly from Kurichhu). Baoschhu sales are to Chhukha at Nu.1.2 per unit. Domestic sales are exclusive of demand charges. Note: Export sales reflected here are net of any payments for the import of power from India in each month. Table 8. Tourist Arrivals and Revenues Number of Tourists and Revenues in Millions of US Dollars Number Revenue Number Revenue Number Revenue Number Revenue Number Revenue Jan Feb , , Mar 1, , , , , Apr 3, , , , , May , , , , Jun Jul , Aug , , , , Sep 2, , , , , Oct 3, , , , , Nov 2, , , , , Dec , , , Total 17, , , , , Source: Tourism Council of Bhutan (*) Convertible currency paying tourists

9 Table 9. Non-Resident Bhutanese Remittances Table 1. Exchange Rate BTN/USD In millions of respective currency Currency of Remittance US Dollar Pound Sterling Euro Other European currencies (valued in BTN) Asian currencies (valued in BTN) TOTAL (valued in BTN) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Source: Bank of Bhutan Ltd, Bhutan National Bank Ltd, and the IMF & respective central bank websites for exchange rates Period Average Year Period Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Calendar year average Fiscal 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 year average Source: International Financial Statistics, IMF Nu. per USD Exchange Rate BTN/USD (Fiscal Year Average) 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/

10 Table 11. Selected Interest Rates in Bhutan Table 12. Selected Interest Rates in India Deposit Rates BOBL* BNBL** TBANK LTD DPNBL BDFCL Savings Deposits Term Deposits (General) 3 months to less than 1 year year to less than 2 years year to less than 3 years 6. 2 years to less than 3 years years to less than 5 years More than 3 years years and above Corporate Deposits 46 days to 1 year days and above months to less than 1 year year to less then 2 years year to less than 3 years years to 3 years above 3 years years to less than 5 years years and above Percent per annum Lending Rates BOB BNB TBANK LTD DPNBL BDFCL Loans by Purpose General Trade Export Finance Manufacturing Industry Service Industries Transport (heavy) Transport (light-commercial) Transport (light-non commercial) Agriculture & Livestock Housing Equity Finance Personal Loan Loan to Government employees Business Sources: * BOBL web site ob.b t ** BNBL web site nb.com.b t Week ended Prime Lending Rate 1) Deposit Rate 2) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Aug Aug Aug Sept Sept Sept Sept Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Nov Nov Nov Nov Source: Weekly Statistical Supplement, RBI. 1) Prime Lending Rate relates to five major Banks 2) Deposits rates of major Banks for term deposits of more than one year maturity. 19 2

11 PREFACE... 1 KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS... 2 COMMENTARIES... 3 MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS... 3 GROSS INTERNATIONAL RESERVES... 6 SALES OF MAJOR POWER PROJECTS... 6 TOURIST ARRIVALS / REVENUE (*)... 7 BTN/USD EXCHANGE RATE... 7 INTEREST RATES... 8 OTHER MACRO ECONOMIC INDICATORS... 8 DATA... 1 TABLE 1. MONETARY SURVEY- AGGREGATES AND COMPONENTS... 1 TABLE 2. MONETARY SURVEY- M2 AND ITS COUNTERPARTS (*) TABLE 3. DEPOSIT LIABILITIES OF THE COMMERCIAL BANKS... TABLE 4. SECTORAL CREDIT BY THE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS TABLE 5. GROSS INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (*) TABLE 6. SUMMARY OF THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (*) TABLE 7. OPERATIONS OF MAJOR POWER PROJECTS TABLE 8. TOURIST ARRIVALS AND REVENUES TABLE 9. NON-RESIDENT BHUTANESE REMITTANCES *)... TABLE 1. EXCHANGE RATE BTN/USD TABLE 11. SELECTED INTEREST RATES IN BHUTAN TABLE 12. SELECTED INTEREST RATES IN INDIA... 2

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