Intra-MENA trade and investment flows : Trends and conclusions. Mr. Alexander Böhmer, Head of MENA programme, Private Sector Development, OECD

Transcription

1 Intra-MENA trade and investment flows : Trends and conclusions Mr. Alexander Böhmer, Head of MENA programme, Private Sector Development, OECD

2 Section 1 INTRA-MENA TRADE FLOWS FEATURES 2

3 Important and stable increase of intra- MENA trade between Evolution of intra-mena merchandise exports, in million of USD Implementing of GAFTA agreement Economies: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Palestinian Authority, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, UAE, Yemen ( unavailable data for Djibouti) Data Sources: UNCTAD, UNCTADstat 3

4 Main Intra-MENA trade partners Share of intra-mena exports in % GCC North Africa Share of Intra-MENA import in 2009 Levant Yemen and Irak 18% 18% 60% 18% 16% 18% 48% Gulf Cooperation Council: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE. North Africa: Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia. Levant: Jordan, Lebanon, Palestinian Authority, Syria. Others : Irak and Yemen (unavailable data for Djibouti) Data Sources: UNCTAD, UNCTADstat 4

5 Section 2 INTRA-MENA FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS 5

6 Amount of FDI inward in million USD Intra -MENA FDI represents non negligeable share of the total amount of FDI in MENA Region Intra-MENA FDI in percentage of total FDI from the World To MENA 80,0% 70,0% 73,1% 60,0% 50,0% 40,0% 30,0% 20,0% 10,0% 27,7% 21,0% 20,6% 24,3% 0,0% Data sources : The Arab Investment and Export Credit Guarantee Corporation

7 Irregular growth of intra-mena FDI Amount of FDI inward in million USD , , , , , , , , , , , ,00 0, , , Intra-MENA FDI Inflows (FDI Inward) Economies: Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Palestinian Authority, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, UAE, Yemen. Data sources: The Arab Investment and Export Credit Guarantee Corporation

8 Net amout in million Euros Gulf Countries are the first regional investors in Mediterranean region gulf countries MEd total Med11 : Algeria, Morocco, Egypt, Israël, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestinian Authority, Syria, Tunisia, Lybia, Turkey Gulf countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE. Source : ANIMA-MIPO 8

9 But risk classification by OECD ECAs of MENA countries still high The Country Risk Classification Method classifies countries into eight risk categories (0-7), with 0 being the lowest and 7 being the highest risk category Country risk classification for selected MENA countries OECD (2010), Country Risk Classifications of the Participants to the Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits, OECD, Paris., as of 22/10/2010

10 Relative risk classification of MENA compared to other regions 7 Country risk classification for selected regions OECD MENA South Caucasus and Ukraine Central Asia OECD (2010), Country Risk Classifications of the Participants to the Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits, OECD, Paris., as of 22/10/2010

11 Good news: KSA and Egypt within Top 25 11

12 MENA: Towards enhanced regional trade and investment frameworks Goods: further implementation of GAFTA principles, namely on NTBs Services: ongoing liberalisation negotiations with EU and within Arab League Investment protection: strengthened regional investment protection frameworks

13 Regional investment frameworks: the way forward Do participants agree that investment frameworks in the region should be strengthened following the strong increase of intra-regional investment and trade flows? What is the opinion of the participants on the options to strengthen regional investment frameworks? Would participants agree on further analysing the options and their effectiveness? How could countries contribute to the analysis? Would participants agree to present the findings of the analysis to the forthcoming MENA-OECD Steering Group and Ministerial Conference with a view to reach political decision on the way forward? 13

14 Thank you for your attention! Alexander Böhmer Head of Unit MENA-OECD Investment Programme OECD Private Sector Development Division 2 rue André-Pascal, Paris, France Tel: Fax: alexander.boehmer@oecd.org For information about the MENA-OECD Programme and its activities, please refer to:

15 MENA is the second region in the world where Real Estate investors anticipate the better oportunities Strongest Anticipated Real Estate Performance - By Region 2010 Strongest Anticipated Real Estate Performance - MENA Eastern Europe South America Western Europe Africa North America Middle East Asia Pacific 2% 8% Oman Bahrain Kuwait North Africa Levant Qatar UAE Dubai UAE Abu Dhabi Saudi Arabia 2% 4% 4% 9% 26% 6% 44% 7% 7% 7% 9% 23% 26% 16% Sources: Investor Sentiment Survey-Middle East & North Africa October Jones Lang Lassale 15

16 Dubai and Abu Dhabi are the best perceived place for investment 30% Preferred choices for future investment in MENA in % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Dubai Abu Dhabi Egypt Oman Bahrain Jordan Lebanon Qatar Sources : Investing in a Rebond. The 2010 AT Kearney FDI Confidence Index 16