Changes in human behavior for a future mobility: Are they necessary, possible, and feasible?

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1 Changes in human behavior for a future mobility: Are they necessary, possible, and feasible? Dr Peter de Haan, Ernst Basler + Partner, Zollikon, Switzerland Dr Anja Peters, ISI Fraunhofer, Karlsruhe, Germany

2 2 Table of contents 1. The g CO 2 /km target for average new passenger car registrations in Autonomous Technical Potential for annual fuel reductions in new cars 3. To which extent are changes in human behavior, notably new car purchase behavior, necessary? 4. Are they possible? Which levers exist to change car purchase behavior? 5. How weight, fuel consumption and rated power of the average new car will change.

3 3 1. g CO 2 /km target for new cars in 2015

4 4 1. g CO 2 /km target for new cars in g CO 2 /km = 1 t CO 2, over 000 km EU s g CO 2 /km regulation: > / g 5 EUR/t CO 2! Mobility is fundamentally different from other sectors; consumers still pay more for higher fuel consumption; mobility is time- and space-constrained, not cost-constrained

5 5 1. g CO 2 /km target for new cars in g target: assumed for 2023 (otherwise, annual eff. increases above those for )

6 6 2. Autonomous Technical Potential (ATP) Autonomous Technical Potential = observed CO 2 reduction + wasted CO 2 reduction potential due to weight increase and due to higher power-to-mass wasted CO 2 reduction due to weight increase = 0.75*relative weight increase wasted CO 2 reduction due to power-to-mass increase = 0.*relative power-to-mass increase

7 7 2. Autonomous Technical Potential (ATP) g CO2/km empty weight rated power power-to-mass displacement unit g/km kg kw kw/kg ccm Average Average Average Table 1. Annual changes in technical characteristics of average new car registrations in Switzerland averaging period: ATP = * *0. = 2.89%/a

8 8 2. Autonomous Technical Potential (ATP) New car registrations can reduce CO 2 emissions by 2.89%/a, if weight and power-to-mass ratio constant If CO 2 emissions are to be decreased faster reduce weight and/or power-to-mass ratio change in human car purchase behavior

9 9 3. Are changes in car purchase behavior necessary? Switzerland, 2010 to 2015: annual changes of 3.72% in fuel consumption needed this exceeds the ATP of 2.89% 0.83% have to come from behavioral changes 7:2 split (technological:behavioral reduction)

10 10 3. Are changes in car purchase behavior necessary? EU: g target can be reached solely through ATP 95 g for ca. 2023: annual reductions of 3.83% over the full time span from 2015 to annually from behavioral changes 3:1 ratio (technological:behavioral changes) (assuming that Switzerland meets the g target in 2015, the latter also applies to Switzerland)

11 11 4. Levers to change car purchase behavior For effective measures to change behavior psychological factors should be considered Socio-psychological model from Peters et al: - Explains car purchase by private consumers - Survey data from 302 Swiss respondents whose households have bought a new car since 2 - Structural equation model (SEM)-based analyses

12 12 4. Levers to change car purchase behavior attitude + perceived behavioral control = direct predictors Problem awareness, symbolic motives, and response efficacy have indirect influence (=affecting the direct predictors)

13 13 4. Levers to change car purchase behavior Factor Attitude Perceived behaviour control Personal norm Response efficacy Symbolic motives Social norm Examples of measures Information about variety of efficient vehicles Incentives (also non-financial) Point out individual behavioural options Information and guidance Illustrate consequences of own behaviour Illustrate consequences of own behaviour Point out individual behavioural options Promote popular image of efficient vehicles Popular / public role models driving efficient vehicles Popular / public role models driving efficient vehicles Incentives to show public support

14 14 4. Consumers have several options Segment no veh. on market segment exists A A-label veh. avail. luxury A fullsize A A A A A A SUV van A A A small SUV A A large cars A A A A A A A A A compact van A A A A A A compact/medium A A A A A A A A A small car A A A A micro cra A A A < > all makes, all fuels, all gear types list price ( CHF)

15 15 5. Technical characteristics of cars in the future specific empty relative Year ATP CO 2 emission weight power [% p.a.] [g CO 2 /km] [kg] [kw/t] % -4.12% -0.97% 0.66% % % % %

16 30 40 >= >= >=12 0 >= >=2 0 >= Changes in human (car purchase) behavior are they necessary, possible, and feasible? 16 Swiss new registrations, g scenario, CO 2 [g/km] 2 Hubraum [ccm] Treibstoffverbrauch [Liter/ km] 2 Leergewicht [kg] Leistung [kw] 2 Gesamtgewicht [kg] 1 1

17 30 40 >= >= >=12 0 >= >=2 0 >= Changes in human (car purchase) behavior are they necessary, possible, and feasible? 17 Swiss new registrations, g scenario, CO 2 [g/km] 2 Hubraum [ccm] Treibstoffverbrauch [Liter/ km] 2 Leergewicht [kg] Leistung [kw] 2 Gesamtgewicht [kg] 1 1

18 30 40 >= >= >=12 0 >= >=2 0 >= Changes in human (car purchase) behavior are they necessary, possible, and feasible? 18 Swiss new registrations, g scenario, CO 2 [g/km] 2 Hubraum [ccm] Treibstoffverbrauch [Liter/ km] 2 Leergewicht [kg] Leistung [kw] 2 Gesamtgewicht [kg] 1 1

19 30 40 >= >= >=12 0 >= >=2 0 >= Changes in human (car purchase) behavior are they necessary, possible, and feasible? 19 Swiss new registrations, g scenario, CO 2 [g/km] 2 Hubraum [ccm] Treibstoffverbrauch [Liter/ km] 2 Leergewicht [kg] Leistung [kw] 2 Gesamtgewicht [kg] 1 1

20 30 40 >= >= >=12 0 >= >=2 0 >= Changes in human (car purchase) behavior are they necessary, possible, and feasible? 20 Swiss new registrations, g scenario, CO 2 [g/km] 2 Hubraum [ccm] Treibstoffverbrauch [Liter/ km] 2 Leergewicht [kg] Leistung [kw] 2 Gesamtgewicht [kg] 1 1

21 30 40 >= >= >=12 0 >= >=2 0 >= Changes in human (car purchase) behavior are they necessary, possible, and feasible? 21 Swiss new registrations, g scenario, CO 2 [g/km] 2 Hubraum [ccm] Treibstoffverbrauch [Liter/ km] 2 Leergewicht [kg] Leistung [kw] 2 Gesamtgewicht [kg] 1 1

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