Emrah Yenier and Gail M. Atkinson Manuscript in preparation for BSSA, Oct Introduc=on
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1 Regionally- Adjustable Generic GMPE based on Equivalent Point- Source Simula=ons: Applica=on to Central and Eastern North America Emrah Yenier and Gail M. Atkinson Manuscript in preparation for BSSA, Oct Introduc=on Alternative methods for derivation of GMPEs in data-poor regions: o Simulation-based o Hybrid empirical o Referenced empirical A simulation-based generic GMPE that can be adjusted for use in any region by modifying a few key model parameters. 1
2 Method Regionally-adjustable generic GMPE: 1. Equivalent point-source simulations 2. Decoupled effects of source and attenuation parameters 3. Parameterize as a function of magnitude, distance, saturation term, stress parameter, geometrical spreading rate and anelastic attenuation coefficient. o o adjustable for source and attenuation attributes in any region effective and transparent control on transferable factors 4. Empirical calibration factor that accounts for effects missing/different in simulations o closes remaining gap between simulated and observed motions Func=onal Form BSSA14 lny = F E + F Z + F γ + F S + C PGA, PGV PSA (T 10s) simulation-based empirical F E : source effect F Z : geometrical spreading F γ : anelastic attenuation F S : site effects C : calibration factor 2
3 Func=onal Form: Source Effect (F E ) F E = F M + F Δσ magnitude effects if there were no saturation effects, for Δσ = 100 bar. (saturation effects are modeled by F Z ) stress adjustment needed when Δσ 100 bars allows calculation of Δσ from PSA data in the target region rate of ground-motion scaling with Δσ; e Δσ = fcn(m,t) Func=onal Form: Geometrical Spreading (F Z ) F Z = ln(z) + (b 3 + b 4 M )ln(r/r ref ) geometrical attenuation of Fourier amplitudes change in apparent attenuation due to response transfer function -1.3 logh = M 50 km
4 Func=onal Form Anelas=c AKenua=on: determined from ground motions in the target region F γ = γd rup Site Effects (BSSA14): defined relative to NEHRP B/C (V S30 = 760 m/s) F S = F lin + F nl Calibra=on Factor: δ = ln(y obs /Y pre ) determined from analysis of residuals Determina=on of Model Coefficients F M, F Δσ and F Z are determined based on equivalent point-source simulations. Parameter Source spectrum Yenier and Atkinson (2014b) DCF source model of Boore et al. (2014) logε = min[0, M] from California motions Geometrical spreading (Z) R -1.3 for R 50 km R -0.5 for R > 50 km Close-distance saturation logh = M Anelastic attenuation not considered (determined empirically) Crustal amplification NEHRP B/C factors of Atkinson and Boore (2006) Kappa κ 0 = s Ground-motion duration (0.5/f a + 0.5/f b ) + Path(Boore and Thompson, 2014) Inconsistencies between simulations and empirical data will be resolved by C. 4
5 Determina=on of Model Coefficients: F M & F Z Time-domain equivalent point-source stochastic simulations (SET 1): M3 M8 1 km D rup 400 km Δσ = 100 bar (fixed) Magnitude effects & Saturation effects unsaturated magnitude effects saturation effects imposed in the simulations at D rup = 1 km Determina=on of Model Coefficients: F M & F Z Time-domain equivalent point-source stochastic simulations (SET 1): M3 M8 1 km D rup 400 km Δσ = 100 bar (fixed) play back magnitude effects difference between the decay rates of Fourier and response spectra constrain to the model presumed in the simulations 5
6 M8 M6 M4 6
7 Determina=on of Model Coefficients: F Δσ Time-domain equivalent point-source stochastic simulations (SET 2): M3 M8 D rup = 1 km (fixed) 10 bar Δσ 1000 bar e Δσ = fcn(m,t) 7
8 Adjustment of the Generic GMPE Z lny = F E + F Z + F γ + F S + C Δσ γ Magnitude (F M ) Saturation (h) Site (F S, BSSA14) Transferable between regions Adjustment of the Generic GMPE for CENA Earthquakes of M 3.0 Natural & induced events Distances < 600 km No Gulf Coast data PGA, PGV and 5%-damped PSA 8
9 Adjustment of the Generic GMPE for CENA Earthquakes of M 3.0 Natural & induced events Distances < 600 km No Gulf Coast data PGA, PGV and 5%-damped PSA Adjustment of the Generic GMPE for CENA Earthquakes of M 3.0 Natural & induced events Distances < 600 km No Gulf Coast data PGA, PGV and 5%-damped PSA Ground motions corrected to NEHRP B/C site condition (V S30 = 760 m/s) using the F S function adopted from BSSA14. 9
10 Regional AKenua=on Geometrical spreading of Fourier amplitudes in CENA (Atkinson and Boore, 2014): Z = # R 1.3 R 50 km (R/50) 0.5 R > 50 km No modification is required for Z Regional anelastic attenuation is determined from observed ground motions: lny B/C,ij F M,i F Z,ij = E i + γ CENA D rup,ij average adjustment required to match observed amplitudes from event i difference between the reference and true Δσ effects missing/different simulations Regional Stress Parameter Δσ is usually determined from matching of spectral amplitudes at short periods o o non-unique due to the trade-off between source and attenuation limited ability to calibrate the response spectral amplitudes at long periods. Δσ is obtained by matching the observed spectral shape to ensure a model calibration that is consistent over a wide period range. o breaks the trade-off between source and attenuation o transfers the overall amplitude difference to the calibration factor C lny B/C,ij F M,i F Z,ij = E i + γ CENA D rup,ij F Δσ,i 10
11 Regional Stress Parameter ln σ CENA = min[0, 0.29(d 10)] + min [0, 0.229(M 5)] Regional Stress Parameter ln σ CENA = min[0, 0.29(d 10)] + min [0, 0.229(M 5)] 11
12 Calibra=on Factor Z CENA lny = F E + F Z + F γ + F S + C Δσ CENA γ CENA Event Residuals (δ i ) mostly δ i < 0 randomly distributed no distinct attributes for natural and induced events no magnitude dependence 12
13 Event- based Calibra=on Factor Average of event residuals over all M -0.5 < C e < 0 at T < 3 s C e > 0 with an increasing trend at T > 3 s limited ability to generate the long-period coherent motions Sta=on Residuals (δ i - corrected) NEHRP B and C sites attain values near zero NEHRP A sites are underpredicted by ~15% NEHRP D sites are overpredicted by ~20% 13
14 Individual Residuals (event- & sta=on- corrected) δ' ij 0 for D rup > 150 km distance-dependent trends at D rup < 150 km difference between the presumed path duration model in simulations and the true path duration in the region. C p = $ b 3 ln(r 150 ) R 150 km 0 R > 150 km 14
15 The CENA-adjusted GMPE is in good agreement with the empirical data. It provides seismologicallyinformed predictions of average motions for M > 6. Median predictions of ground motions in CENA for average H-component PGA, PGV and 5%-damped PSA (up to T = 10 s): M3 M8 D rup 600 km NEHRP B/C (V S30 = 760 m/s) Regional stress model (depth- and magnitude-dependent) 15
16 Thank you. 16
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