Introduction to electric vehicles. Why and why not EVs? How about other ways of transportation in the future?

Transcription

1 VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND LTD Introduction to electric vehicles. Why and why not EVs? How about other ways of transportation in the future? Tampere University of Technology Industrial Perspectives Nils-Olof Nylund, Research Professor

2 Outline Setting the stage Alternative energies for transport EU policies and guidelines Examples of 2030/2050 targets and scenarios EV numbers Features of electric passenger cars Features of electric buses Summary 14/04/2016 2

3 Consumer level System level Elements determining the environmental impacts of traffic Community structure Traffic volumes and choice of transport mode Energy for transport Vehicles and user behaviour Policy orientation Technology orientation 14/04/2016 3

4 Why use alternative fuels? Oil substitution Use of locally available fuels Stimulating local economy Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions Reduction of harmful local emissions 14/04/ Picture: Stefan Schmerbeck/VW 2014

5 Reducing CO 2 emissions Total emission Transport work (km)* Energy consumption (MJ/km)* * * Carbon intensity (g CO2/MJ) Action Reduce transport work Modal shift & energy efficiency Renewable energy * passenger km/ton km 5

6 Need for liquid fuels Hierarchy of fuels Aviation Marine Heavy-duty road vehicles Rail Light-duty road vehicles & urban services Possibility for electrification increases 6

7 As for technology options: Remember: In reality, one size doesn t fit all! 7

8 Liquid biofuels and methane are the most versatile alternatives! Marc Steen/JRC 2014

9 Fast fueling/charging Diesel refueling 70 l/min ~40 MW Fast charging of E-buses 650 kw (planned) Opbrid/Busbaar V3 14/04/2016 9

10 Electric timber truck (just joking!) 14/04/

11 Renewable energy for transport The options are: Liquid and gaseous biofuels Renewable electricity Renewable hydrogen Electrofuels Power-to-gas Power-to-liquids 14/04/

12 The 2011 EU White Paper on Transport A vision for a competitive and sustainable transport system Growing transport and supporting mobility while reaching a 60% GHG emission reduction target Ten goals grouped in three main groups: Developing and deploying new and sustainable fuels and propulsion systems Optimising the performance of multimodal logistic chains, including by making greater use of more energy-efficient modes Increasing the efficiency of transport and of infrastructure use with information systems and market-based incentives 14/04/

13 2020 climate and energy package & Directive 2009/28/EC RES 10 % renewable energy in transport by /04/

14 No 2030 target for renewable energy in transport! 14

15 Directive 2014/94/EU (October 2014) on the deployment of alternative fuels infrastructure 14/04/

16 World vehicle registrations in million

17 Alternative fuel vehicle registrations within EU EVs BEV + PHEV HEVs Gaseous fuels Change +109 % +23 % -8 % Total share*) Total EU 28 registrations 14.4 million units 14/04/

18 Projections for 2050 Reference scenario 2013 Passenger cars 14/04/

19 ETP 2016 analysis Energy demand in the transportation sector Focus on urban areas 19 January 2015 Transport Contact Group Pierpaolo Cazzola International Energy Agency OECD/IEA 2015

20 Vehicle stock (millions) Vehicle technologies LDVs DS Pierpaolo Cazzola Conservative 6DS: current fuel economy regulations do not translate in onroad improvements, >3 billion LDVs in 2050 Hybrids enter the fleet in 4DS significantly 2DS sees increased electrification and some FCEVs in long term. TDM limits LDVs below 2.5 billion in Local pollution one of policy drivers BEV and PHEV LDVs nearly 10% of LDVs stock by 2030, 40% by Leading markets are in OECD and China Two-wheelers are all urban by assumption 4DS 6DS Lighter shades (top) designate urban activity, darker shades (bottom) non-urban activity Gasoline ICEs Diesel ICE CNG/LPG Hybrids Plug-in electric Electric Fuel cell (urban) (urban) (urban) (urban) (urban) (urban) (urban) OECD/IEA 2015

21 EV progress Development in 100 years: Range: from 100 miles to 160 km Price: from 3 times ICE vehicle to 2-3 times ICE vehicle T-Ford some 700 USD (1914) Detroit Electric some 2500 USD (1914) 14/04/

22 Conditions for EV break-through Sufficient offerings of EVs Satisfactory performance (driving range) corresponding to people s needs Affordable and cost effective EVs Adequate recharging infrastructure Easiness of use and recharging Added value in comparison to ICE vehicles What about the carbon intensity of power generation? 22

23 Different kinds of EVs These two (Reva, Think) didn t turn people on This one (Tesla S) certainly did! 14/04/

24 Example on tax-free vehicle prices Baseline petrol vehicle BEV Price factor /04/

25 My kind of electric vehicle: VW Passat GTE plug-in 14/04/

26 Norway is at the forefront of EV implementation, but Bus drivers annoyed over EVs filling up bus lanes 14/04/

27 The Finnish charging operator VIRTA 14/04/

28 Energy demand of EVs In Finland, 2.5 million EVs (whole passenger car fleet) would correspond to roughly 10 % of total electricity use 14/04/

29 g/km Well-to-wheel CO 2 emissions Passenger car WTW CO 2 emissions C-category vehicle, performance values by the manufacturer, fuel data JEC Well-To-Wheels Analysis /04/

30 Electric vehicle sweet spot: buses 14/04/

31 Why are electric buses attractive? City buses are the ideal case for e-mobility: Fixed route length Fixed schedule High utilisation rate Low energy cost Possibility for profitability No local emissions Quiet High passenger comfort Multimodality potential Trolley, rail, tram But, in the initial phase, challenging for procurement! 14/04/

32 Volvo is going full ahead with electric buses Magnus Broback/ /04/

33 System : ebussystem the Espoo demonstration The transport system How do electric buses fit into the public transport system? - Ministry of Transport - Helsinki Region Transport - City of Espoo - Transdev, Aalto University Public sector Private sector Bus operator Research The vehicle How do electric buses perform? - Transdev, VTT - Bus manufacturers (BYD, Caetano, Ebusco, VDL) - Component manufacturers (Visedo, Tamware, Vacon) - Transport Safety Agency The energy supply How can electric buses be charged and how is the grid affected? - Smart grid, grid services and smart bus depot - Utilities (Fortum), Siemens, charger manufacturers - Rail traffic synergy, cities - VTT, TUT, LUT 14/04/

34 Spin-off: Manufacturer of battery electric buses 14/04/

35 Linkker LinkLight Linkker 12 Low Entry Aluminum chassis and body Curb weight 9.500kg GVW kg Payload 5.500kg Unique lightweight construction

36 12 Linkker buses for Helsinki Region Transport ??

37 Summary Electric vehicles are definitely embedded in the roadmaps for future transport Pace of market penetration is still a question mark Electric propulsion is best suited for light-duty vehicles and for urban services The 2020 energy and climate targets do not pose any insuperable challenges Several alternative vehicle technologies are already on the market The 2030 energy and climate targets, without any renewable energy targets for transport, have caused some confusion Going towards 2050 we need progress in energy efficiency, energy diversity and low-carbon energy carriers, as well as a new way to operate the transport system One single energy carrier cannot meet all needs It is not electric vehicles vs. biofuels It is both electric vehicles and biofuels! When implementing EVs, keep in mind cost effectiveness and the fact that technology is moving rapidly Electric buses are cost effective already today 14/04/

38 TECHNOLOGY FOR BUSINESS