Migration trends in Norfolk January 2015

Transcription

1 Migration trends in Norfolk January 2015 This report gives a brief summary of the latest statistics on migration in Norfolk. It distinguishes internal migration within the UK and international migration for the period 2003/04 to 2012/13, also giving a brief summary of the age structures of those people. Census data from 2011 analyses country of birth and passports held by year of arrival in Norfolk. Administrative data on National Insurance Number registrations and GP registrations illustrate changes over time and provide information on non-uk nationalities. Further details can be found on the Norfolk Insight website Headline analysis From 2003/04 to 2012/13 Norfolk gained around 66,000 people from net migration - 61% from migration within the UK and 39% from international migration. For 2012/13, the highest level of net gains from internal UK migration to Norfolk was among 60 to 64 year olds. For 2012/13, the highest level of net gains from long-term international migration to Norfolk was among 20 to 24 year olds. NINo registrations for Norfolk during 2004 to 2012 peaked in 2007 and declined thereafter, until 2013 when there was a rise. There have been around 61,000 NINo registrations for Norfolk during the period 2004 to The steep rise in NINo registrations for Norfolk in 2013 are most apparent in Norwich, Breckland and Great Yarmouth. Norwich continues to have much higher levels of new migrant GP registrations than other areas of the county. Introduction Population and migration statistics are produced to meet a diverse range of requirements relating to resource allocation, policy making, local service provision, commerce and research. They provide snapshots of population change over time, which is influenced by wider social, cultural and natural environments. This complexity is increased by the range of potential data sources from which population counts may be derived. This report brings together different migration related data on long-term international and internal migration flows used to calculate population turnover rates, short-term international migration inflows, non-uk born population, migrant National Insurance Number (NINo) allocations and migrant GP registrations. Generally, the latest data available is for The report also covers 2011 Census data on demographic features of international migrants. Page 1 of 10

2 Internal migration (within UK) Since internal moves are not recorded formally, information obtained from the NHS Central Register (NHSCR) and GP Patient Registers is used as a proxy for England and Wales estimates. These data are considered to be a good proxy for internal migration as, when moving, most patients will eventually register with a new GP. Complete information on all moves at former Health Authority Level from the NHSCR are combined with more geographically detailed data from the patient registers to produce the migration estimates by local authority. Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) administrative data is used within the production of internal migration estimates, primarily to improve the quality of estimating internal migration moves made by students. Figure 1 shows internal net migration (within the UK) for Norfolk s districts between 2003/04 and 2012/13, with each column representing a single year s net migration the lighter coloured columns represent more recent years. This shows that there is no consistent pattern across Norfolk, during this ten year period. In recent years, South Norfolk has seen the most gains in internal net migration, with Norwich having the most net loses. Figure 1: Norfolk internal net migration, by district, 2003/04 to 2012/13 Mid-2013 population estimates show that there were around 3,100 net gains during the year from internal UK migration in Norfolk over the year, this represents a population increase due to internal migration of 0.36%. There were net losses in the 20-24, and 75+ age groups, and net gains in all the other age groups. Over the year, the highest level of net gains was in the age group. Page 2 of 10

3 International migration Annual long-term international migration inflow measures persons arriving or returning from abroad to take up residence in a country for a period of at least 12 months. The figures for Norfolk have fluctuated over the past decade. Norfolk had an inflow of an estimated 4,000 long-term international migrants in , with a generally increasing trend over the next few years peaking at 6,300 in Since then, there has been a generally flattening trend (Figure 2). This is generally consistent with the pattern of NINo registrations (Figure 5), so it seems that longterm international migrants are coming to Norfolk for work. In terms of districts, Norwich continues to have much higher levels of long-term international migration inflows than other areas of the county. Broadland and South Norfolk have the lowest levels. For Norfolk, international long-term migrant inflow has remained above the level of the outflows. Internal migration has fluctuated more widely and is currently around five times the volume of international migration. Figure 2: Norfolk internal and international migration, 2003/04 to 2012/13 Figure 3 shows how net migration has fallen since the peak of 2004/05, with international net migration making a more significant contribution to the total from 2009/10. For the ten year period from 2003/04, Norfolk gained around 66,000 people from net migration, of which 61% has been from internal migration and 39% from international migration. Page 3 of 10

4 Figure 3: Norfolk net migration, 2003/04 to 2012/13 Mid-2013 population estimates show that there were around 2,700 net gains during the year from international migration in Norfolk over the year, this represents a population increase due to international migration of 0.32%. There were net gains in all age groups, with highest numbers in the age group. Short-term international migrants Annual short-term migration inflows measure people who move to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least three months but less than a year (twelve months) except in cases where the movement to that country is for purposes of recreation, holiday, visits to friends and relatives, business, medical treatment or religious pilgrimage. The International Passenger Survey (IPS) is the primary source of short-term international migration data. The IPS is a continuous voluntary survey conducted by the ONS at all principal air and sea routes and the channel tunnel. It is a sample survey and the resultant figures are grossed up by weighting factors dependant on route and time of year, and are estimates. Annual short-term international migration inflow to Norfolk has fluctuated over the past five years (latest data available) (Figure 4), with overall numbers for the period of around 5,700. In terms of districts, Norwich continues to have much higher levels of short-term international migration inflows than other areas of the county (accounting for almost half), with Broadland and South Norfolk having the lowest levels. Page 4 of 10

5 Figure 4: Norfolk short-term international immigrants, 2007/08 to 2011/12 National Insurance Number (NINo) registrations A NINo is generally required by any overseas national (aged 16 to 64) looking to work or claim benefits or tax credits in the UK, including the self-employed and students working part time. The statistics provide a measure of immigration (inflow) but do not reflect emigration (outflow), or the overall migrant population (stock). All adult overseas nationals allocated a NINo are included regardless of their length of stay in the UK. Undocumented workers are not recorded in NINo data, so there will be under-recording. There have been fluctuations in numbers of NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals entering Norfolk annually during 2004 to 2013 (Figure 5). In total, there have been around 61,000 NINo registrations for Norfolk during the period 2004 to There was a steep rise during 2004 when the UK opened its borders and labour markets to the EU8 countries, and another in 2007 when the EU2 countries joined the EU 1. Immigration restrictions for EU2 nationals were lifted in There has been further variation in the annual level of NINo registration from 2007 to 2012, accounted for in part by the changing economic conditions in the UK. The steep increase in NINo registrations in 2013 (around 6,500 registrations) could be accounted for by the improved economic conditions in the UK compared with other EU countries. Norfolk has followed a similar trend over the period 2004 to 2013 in registrations when compared with our geographical neighbours, with similar peaks and troughs, although the level differs Norfolk s level of annual registrations is much higher than Suffolk, much lower than Cambridgeshire and more similar to Lincolnshire. 1 For a definition of the Member and Accession countries and other related classifications see Page 5 of 10

6 Figure 5: Numbers of NINo registrations to adult overseas national entering Norfolk, 2004 to 2013 Figure 6 shows the district breakdown of registrations - the lighter coloured columns represent more recent years. Norwich, King s Lynn & West Norfolk and Breckland stand out as areas with consistently higher levels of registrations. Norwich is a centre for many skilled and unskilled industry sectors, and the rural areas have demands in sectors such as agriculture and related food processing and packaging, attracting higher levels of migrant workers. The steep increases in NINo registrations seen at county level in 2013 are most apparent in Norwich, Breckland and Great Yarmouth. Figure 6: numbers of NINo registrations to adult overseas national entering Norfolk districts, 2004 to 2013 Page 6 of 10

7 Table 1 gives a more detailed picture of totalled NINo registrations for the period 2002 to Around 48,200 of the 64,300 registrations during the period were accounted for by ten nationalities. The largest three were Polish, Lithuanian and Portuguese. Norwich, King s Lynn & West Norfolk and Breckland recorded the largest numbers in total over the period. There are other variations between districts over the period, for example Indians, Hungarians and Chinese went mainly to Norwich; Latvians and Lithuanians mainly to King s Lynn & West Norfolk; Polish mainly to Breckland; and Portuguese mainly to Great Yarmouth. Table 1: NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals entering Norfolk; top ten nationalities, 2002 to 2013 Top ten nationalities Nationality Breckland Broadland Great Yarmouth King's Lynn & West Norfolk North Norfolk Norwich South Norfolk Norfolk Poland 4, ,140 2,360 1,000 2, ,540 Rep of Lithuania 2, ,810 4, , ,860 Portugal 2, , ,910 Rep of Latvia 1, , ,470 India , ,850 Hungary , ,340 Bulgaria ,110 People's Republic of China , ,430 Romania ,390 Slovak Rep ,350 Totals 11,200 1,170 7,860 11,910 4,210 10,240 1,650 48,230 All nationalities 12,790 2,210 9,120 14,070 4,980 18,410 2,730 64,300 Source: Stat-Xplore, Department for Work and Pensions, 2015 Note: Figures may not equal due to rounding Migrant GP registrations GP registrations are the number of new Flag 4 records added in the previous 12 months existing on the Patient Register. Flag 4 records are produced as part of the Patient Register Data Service (PRDS). The numbers of new migrant GP registrations annually in Norfolk for the period 2003/04 to 2012/13 (Figure 7) shows an increasing trend until its peak of around 7,300 in 2006/07. Since then, numbers have rather flattened, with little variation. The number of new migrant GP registrations for 2012/13 is around 7,200. However, it should be noted that GP registration is not compulsory. There may also be a time lag between the migration event and actual registration. The completeness of the data depends on all patients registering with an NHS GP when they move to this country. Furthermore, it is known that registration patterns vary by sex and age group. Therefore, the usefulness of the data as an indicator of migration is limited by some groups being less likely to register with a GP than others. For example, young men (who make up a large proportion of migrants) are less likely to register with a GP than other groups. In terms of districts, Norwich continues to have much higher levels of new migrant GP registrations than other areas of the county, with Broadland, North Norfolk and South Norfolk having the lowest levels. Page 7 of 10

8 Figure 7: New migrant GP registrations for Norfolk, 2003/04 to 2012/13 Source: Office for National Statistics, 2014 Passports held and country of birth by year of arrival Figure 8 looks at 2011 Census information on year of arrival in the UK, for selected countries of birth of Norfolk residents. In general the numbers have fluctuated, except for the very large increase in arrivals from EU accession countries in 2004/06 when the UK opened its borders and labour market to their nationals. Numbers subsequently declined at county level from 5,900 in to 5,300 in and 1,800 in At district level the largest numbers were in Breckland, King s Lynn & West Norfolk and Norwich, in total falling from 4,400 in to 1,400 in There has also been a significant increase in migrants born in the Middle East and Asia, peaking at around 2,200 in Figure 9 on Census information on year of arrival in the UK, for selected countries of passports held by Norfolk residents, paints a similar picture, but the large increase in arrivals from EU accession countries in 2004/06 is even more marked. Of the 61,500 Norfolk residents born outside the UK, some 22,000 held UK passports and a similar number held other EU passports, of which some 13,200 held passports issued by EU accession countries 2. 2 Note that around 206,700 Norfolk residents did not hold a passport, including 3,600 born outside the UK. Page 8 of 10

9 Number of people Figure 8: Norfolk, selected countries of birth by year of arrival in UK Before EU countries in March 2001 EU accession countries Africa Middle East and Asia The Americas and the Caribbean Source: 2011 Census, Table LC2805EW Figure 9: Norfolk, selected passports held by year of arrival in UK 6,000 5,000 Before , , , , EU countries in March 2001 EU accession countries Africa Middle East and Asia The Americas and the Caribbean Source: 2011 Census, Table LC2804EW Page 9 of 10

10 Figure 10 shows from the Census the main countries of birth for those residents born outside the UK and in the rest of the EU. Around 6,100 were born in Poland and almost 4,400 were born in Germany. Around 15,300 were born in Accession countries and 12,100 in Member countries as at Figure 10: Norfolk residents with EU country of birth, individual countries Member countries in 2001 France Germany Italy Portugal Spain Other Accession countries Lithuania Poland Romania Other 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Number born in each country Source: 2011 Census, Table QS203EW, Country of birth (detailed) Further information For further information, refer to Norfolk Insight at If you need this document in large print, audio, Braille, alternative format or in a different language please contact Norfolk County Council on and we will do our best to help. Page 10 of 10