Country Profile. Democratic Republic of the Congo

Transcription

1 Country Profile Democratic Republic of the Congo October 2011

2 The Fund for Peace is an independent, nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) non-profit research and educational organization that works to prevent violent conflict and promote sustainable security. We promote sustainable security through research, training and education, engagement of civil society, building bridges across diverse sectors, and developing innovative technologies and tools for policy makers. A leader in the conflict assessment and early warning field, the Fund for Peace focuses on the problems of weak and failing states. Our objective is to create practical tools and approaches for conflict mitigation that are useful to decision-makers. Copyright 2011 The Fund for Peace. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent from The Fund for Peace. The Fund for Peace Conflict Early Warning and Assessment Country Profiles Series Editor J. J. Messner Country Profile Written by Kristen Blandford The Fund for Peace Publication FFP : CCPPR11CD (Version 10U) Circulation: PUBLIC The Fund for Peace 1720 I Street NW 7th Floor Washington, D.C T: F: The Fund for Peace

3 Profile Democratic Republic of the Congo Numbers Pressures Capacity Combined Failed States Index Score Failed States Index Rank Average Indicator Score Year-on-Year Core Average Score Core Rank Capacity Minus Pressures th th -7.3 Maximum 120 of 177 countries Maximum 10 Improvement Maximum 10 of 177 countries Pressures Assessment: Alert Capacity Assessment: Poor High Pressure Low Capacity Outlook The D.R. Congo continues to struggle, with poverty remaining widespread throughout the country and violence and instability continuing in the east. In addition to a lack of capacity, the Congolese security forces lack credibility due to their widespread human rights abuses. There is a need for the government to better hold accountable members of the security forces and to punish those who are committing human rights abuses. Fighting corruption, ending impunity of the security forces and creating a more capable and professional military are also key priorities. The need for increasing the capacity and legitimacy of government security forces has become increasingly urgent. Comparative Statistics Population GDP Per Capita (PPP) Life Expectancy Median Age 65,600,000 US$ years 16.5 years China 1,339,000,000 Qatar US $ 91,379 Japan 82.6 years Japan 44.6 years Seychelles 86,500 D.R. Congo US $ 319 Swaziland 39.6 years Uganda 17.6 years 3 The Fund for Peace

4 Indicators Social, Economic & Political Pressures Social & Economic Indicators Demographic Pressures Refugees and IDPs Group Grievance Human Flight Uneven Development Poverty and Decline rd 2nd 23rd 21st 1st 8th Poor Poor Poor Poor Poor Poor Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Steady Steady Improved Improved Improved Steady 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend Worsened Steady Improved Worsened Steady Worsened Recent Improvements and Declines D.R. Congo experiences severe issues with food and human security due to the ongoing conflicts against rebel forces. The country has an estimated 1.4 million IDPs and Congolese refugees remain displaced in neighboring countries, giving this pressure a regional dimension. A country with vast natural resources, D.R. Congo is slowly recovering from decades of mismanagement. Systemic corruption and continued conflict remain problems for the country s economic growth. However, due to P resi de n t K a bi l a s d em o n s t rat ed commitment to reforms, foreign aid and investment has been growing. The Demographic Pressures score decreased to the levels of FSI 2009, as increases in aid helped offset rising food prices. The Group Grievance score improved 0.3 points as grievances from internal divisions were redirected to concerns over the level of external intervention in the country. The Human Flight score declined significantly, though violence continues to displace populations. D.R. Congo s Refugees and IDPs score remains alarmingly high, adding to resource shortages. The Uneven Development score improved 0.3 points as industries recovered. Inequality remains a major problem, as demonstrated by D.R. Congo s 1st place position for this indicator in the FSI D.R. Congo s Poverty and Decline score remained steady as economic growth recovered from the global economic crisis to return to the levels of The Fund for Peace

5 Democratic Republic of the Congo Political & Military Indicators Legitimacy of the State Public Services Human Rights Security Apparatus Factionalized Elites External Intervention th 10th 7th 5th 23rd 6th Poor Poor Poor Poor Poor Poor Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend Worsened Steady Steady Worsened Steady Improved Recent Improvements and Declines D.R. Congo s Human Rights score improved, reflecting ex-vice President Bemba s trial by the ICC, and the further investigation of numerous war crimes committed in the country. The Security Apparatus score decreased slightly, indicating some progress in Security Sector Reforms carried out by MONUSCO. The External Intervention score improved due to MONUSCO s drawdown and preparations for a 2011 departure. The Legitimacy of the State score increased, indicating ongoing discontent with corrupt government and ongoing insecurity in the country. D.R. Congo s history of dictatorial rule and proximity to regional conflicts has long destabilized the country. The violent presence of rebels in the east continues to undermine the government s legitimacy. D.R. Congo has suffered from gross human rights abuses from both rebel groups and government security forces in this anarchic environment, including mass murders, sexual violence, and looting of already impoverished villages. Poor infrastructure and extreme income inequalities in the country, despite its obvious natural wealth, also serves to foster discontent. MONUSCO s level intervention is decreasing, following a withdrawal of 1,500 troops and government pressure to leave the country before elections, scheduled for November The Fund for Peace

6 Pressures and Capacities Trends and Comparisons Multi-Year Pressures Trend Failed States Index (Pressures) Total Score The large chart represents a magnified portion of the full scale, shown below: Alert Multi-Indicator Comparison Pressures Pressures better than average Pressures worse than average Finland: Best Performer Average of all 177 countries Somalia: Worst Performer Capacities Capacity lower than average Capacity higher than average Average of all 177 countries Somalia: Worst Performer Austria: Best Performer A visual representation of the proportion of the total pressure and capacity scores that are contributed by each individual indicator. Each color within the bar chart corresponds to the colors of the 12 Failed States Index (pressure) indicators and the 7 Core 5+2 (capacity) indicators. Guidelines are also provided to demonstrate the average score for all 177 countries, as well as the extremes of best and worst performers. 6 The Fund for Peace

7 Democratic Republic of the Congo State Institutions and Civil Society: Core 5+2 Indicators Leadership Military Police Judiciary Civil Service Civil Society Media Poor Poor Weak Poor Poor Poor Weak Pressures v. Capacity Plot Comparison Low Capacity High Capacity Switzerland Norway Finland Ireland Japan France Argentina Estonia Mongolia This chart compares pressures with capacities by comparing the Failed States Index score (representing pressures) with an average indicator score for the Core 5+2 (representing capacity). Note that the capacity score is an average, as not all countries have been assessed for all Core 5+2 indicators as yet, due to insufficient data. (Note that the capacity measures are still under development.) Somalia Low Pressure High Pressure 120 Cyprus Libya Paraguay Israel Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Georgia Myanmar C.A.R. Iraq Zimbabwe Haiti Afghanistan Sudan Chad D.R.C. Pressures v. Capacities Flat Comparison A representation of capacities vs. pressures based on the difference between average capacity indicator score and average pressure indicator score. Higher Pressure, Lower Capacity D.R.C Lower Pressure, Higher Capacity 7 The Fund for Peace

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