A Unified Modelling System for Estimating the Value of Ecosystem Services

Transcription

1 Ecology Centre University of Kiel Germany Department of Ecosystems and Environmental Informatics A Unified Modelling System for Estimating the Value of Ecosystem Services Ernest Fongwa Albrecht Gnauck Felix Müller 1

2 Introduction Contents Problems of Estimating the Value of Ecosystem Services Parameter for Estimating the Value of Ecosystem Services Petri Net Modelling Framework Simulation and Results Discussion and Conclusion

3 Introduction

4 Provisioning Service Category Type of ES Food Water Fibre Energy Bio-chemicals Examples Crops, livestock, fisheries, aquaculture, wild foods etc. Fresh water, rivers, sea and oceans etc. Timber, cotton, hemp, silk etc. Biomass, photosynthesis, solar-rays, oil plants, hydrothermal, geothermal, tidal wave energy, hydro-carbons, fuel wood etc. Biomedical plants, bio-remediation compounds, herbs, aromatics, chemical substances from plant, animals, insects and bees such as honey from bee wax, snake oil etc.

5 Regulating Services Category Type of ES Air quality regulation Water quality regulation (Surface and ground water) Pests and diseases regulation Examples - Climate regulation:sequestration like CO2, Evapo-transpiration (precipitation) - Filtering dust particles in air - Regulation of air pollutant like NOx, SOx etc. Water purification, water softening etc. Regulation against : parasite, fungi and bacteria invasion of human, plant and animals, air and water born diseases, exposure to poisonous substances etc.

6 Regulating Services Category Type of ES Regulation of soil and erosion Natural hazards regulation Examples Regulate soil depletion through soil buffering, removal of impurities in soil through soil shrinking, control of wind and water erosion etc. Storm and flood control, control of tectonic movement in soil to reduce earthquakes and volcanic explosion etc.

7 Supporting Services Category Type of ES Nutrient cycling and soil formation Crop pollination Support the earth surface Examples Nutrient balancing by microorganisms, soil formation by decomposition of dead plants and animals etc. Pollination by bees, insects and other micro-organisms etc. Life on earth, platform for houses, farming, road etc.

8 Preserving Services Category Type of ES Biodiversity Development and maintenance of genetic resource against uncertainty (extinction) Examples Habitat for plant and animal species, noise reduction etc. Richness/abundance of genetic species, bio-refugia, hybridisation of species etc.

9 Cultural services Category Type of ES Spiritual and religious values Recreational and ecotourism Examples Secret places, inspirations, social relations (indigenous culture), sense of place (cultural identity) etc. Aesthetic values, monuments, sanctuaries, natural parks, natural and cultural tourism, heritage sites etc.

10 Unified System for Ecosystem Services Integrating the relationships between ecological, socioeconomic, political and cultural factors in estimating the value of ES after a particular transition event at a place They are integrated based on environmental rules for studying the behaviours of multi-agents for policy measures Therefore an inventory system is required for estimating the inflow and flow of ES based on the interactions of multi-actors in a unified system

11 Unified System for Ecosystem Service A Petri net modelling framework is used to support the estimation of ES in a unified system It has been used to model flow systems such as in transport, business and financial systems, industrial processes, and freshwater ecology etc. It is a discret event modelling approach using graphical and mathematical tools

12 Problem of Estimating the Value of Ecosystem Services Estimates based on ecological magnitude or transfer benefits from other services, which can be challenging on particular places due to different catchment areas The inflow and outflow values or rates are not clarified making it difficult an understanding of the accounting procedures, which can be also challenging for policies Do not show their relationship with athropogenic factors, which influence estimates (dynamic system with many interactions of multi-agents)

13 Parameter for Estimating the Value of Ecosystem Services ES- Ecosystem services SAU- Service antagonising units TES- Tangible ES NTES- Non Tangible ES ES = TES + NTES VES- Value for ES Adj. - Adjustment from double counting SPU- Service production units SU- Service units ß- Disturbance from VES= Σ (ES ± Adj. ± (SPU-SAU) ± ß) or VES= Σ (ES ± Adj. ± SU± ß)

14 Parameter for Estimating the Value of Ecosystem Services St= Stock of ES Therefore: SS= Supply Δ= Change DD= Demand St= Σ (VES ± (SS-DD)) ΔSt = ΔΣVES ± (SPU-SAU) ± ß Or ΔST = (SS-DD) ± (SPU-SAU) ± ß ΣVES ± (SS-DD) = ΣVES ± ΔΣVES

15 Parameter for Estimating the Value of Ecosystem Services If : For environmental balancing for preserve ES: ΣSt- old stock of ES in a particular region Then: ΣSt ± ΔΣSt- Current stock (Phase Transition) ΔΣSt 0 For environmental improvement for preserving: ΔΣSt > 0 For environmental deficit for preserving ES: ΔΣSt < 0

16 Petri Net Modelling Framework Models based on their local environment, which are limited to local rule depending whether they are place/time/stochastic nets

17 Model Building

18 Verification of Net Properties Properties Net Class Results Asymmetric Liveness Boundedness Conservative Repetativeness Consistent Cannot decide Yes Yes Yes Yes

19 Model Building

20 Verification of Net Properties Properties Net Class Results Free choice Liveness Boundedness Conservative Yes No Partially Repetitiveness Consistent Yes Yes

21 Extended Model

22 Verification of Net Properties Properties Net Class Results Asymmetric Liveness Boundedness Conservative Repetitiveness Consistent No Yes Yes Yes Yes

23 Simulation and Reults

24 Results

25 Results

26 Results

27 Discussion and Conclusion Anthropogenic factors are usually not integrated in estimation procedure for the value of ES But, they play important roles in determining the state of ES over different place and time that need to be taken into consideration The modelling approach show that they can be integrated in estimation methods based on an understanding of their behaviour in the supply and demand of ES

28 Discussion and Conclusion Their behaviours can be use to determine rule-based strategies for resolving concurrencies/conflicts in the demand and supply of ES,which has been envisaged Therefore, Petri net modelling framework can offer a good opportunity in modelling the flow of ES for inventory and decision support systems Since this is the first attempt in this field, there is a need for further research with Petri nets for determining possible application areas for policy measures on ES

29 Thanks for your Attention!