A Statistical Summary of Activity in Saskatchewan s Oil and Gas Sector

Transcription

1 A Statistical Summary of Activity in Saskatchewan s Oil and Gas Sector Presentation to the SIIT Industry Round Table June 17, 2008 Doug Elliott Sask Trends Monitor th Avenue Regina, Saskatchewan S4N 1H sasktrends@sasktel.net

2 Contents The Oil and Gas Sector Defined Economic Activity Contribution to Gross Domestic Product Value and Volume of Production Capital Investment Exports Labour Market Activity Employment Who is working and in what kinds of jobs Wage rates June

3 Data Sources and Definitions Statistics Canada produces the bulk of the data about the sector s economic activities so we will, by necessity, be using their definitions. In most of the data from Statistics Canada, the oil/gas sector is combined with mining into the mining and oil/gas sector and cannot be separated. Depending on the measure, the oil/gas sector is about a third of the total. Statistics Canada normally includes only what is normally called the upstream part of the sector exploration and development in the figures. The downstream side is variously classified as manufacturing (oil refineries), transportation (pipelines), or retail trade (service stations). June

4 Economic Activity Contribution to GDP Shares of Saskatchewan 2006 Gross Domestic Product (measured in millions of constant 1997 dollars) Health care and social assistance $1,857 6% Educational services $1,604 5% Public administration $1,849 6% Mining/Oil/Gas $3,947 12% Utilities $845 3% Forestry, fishing, hunting $188 1% Accommodation and food services $689 2% Personal and household services $825 3% Business services $993 3% Information, recreation, culture $1,281 4% Retail trade $1,760 6% Construction $1,831 6% Wholesale trade $1,935 Finance and insurance $2,887 9% Owner-occupied dwellings $2,613 8% Manufacturing $2,377 7% Transportation and warehousing Agriculture $2,308 $2,141 7% 7% 6% Total GDP = $31.6 Billion June

5 Economic Activity Value of Production $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0 Value of Crude Oil/Natural Gas Production, Saskatchewan $ millions Crude Oil Natural Gas A doubling of prices in the last five years has had a major impact on the dollar value of crude oil extracted in Saskatchewan. In 2006 the value of production was $8 billion compared with $3 billion in Preliminary estimates suggest that the value of production in 2008 increased by another $1 billion. The value of natural gas production has increased from $0.4 to $1.7 billion over the ten years. June

6 Economic Activity Volume and Value of Production 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 Volume of Crude Oil/Natural Gas Production, Saskatchewan Crude Oil m 3 x 1000 There has been virtually no change, over the past five years, in the volume of crude oil and natural gas extracted. In other words the increase in the value of production in the past few years has been purely price related. 10,000 5,000 Natural Gas m3 x 1,000, June

7 Economic Activity Capital Investment $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 New Capital Investment, Crude Oil/Natural Gas Sector, Saskatchewan (includes support activities for mining) $ millions The capital investment figures show why production hasn t increased in Saskatchewan yet. Although the numbers are very large ($2.5 billion estimated for 2007), there has been very little change in the past ten years. $1,000 $500 $ intended June

8 Economic Activity Exports $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 Value of Crude Oil Exports From Saskatchewan $ millions Measured in Canadian dollars, the value of crude exported to the USA has more than doubled in the past five years. $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $ June

9 Labour Market Information This information is from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) The LFS excludes the population living on Reserve. The LFS measures employment according to the residence of the employee, not the location of the job. So those who commute into Fort McMurray, for example, will be included as Saskatchewan employees.

10 Employment Total Employment in the Mining and Oil/Gas Extraction Sector, 2007 Annual Average Manitoba The oil/gas sector is combined with mining in Statistics Canada s employment data. Atlantic Quebec British Columbia Saskatchewan Ontario Alberta 21,400 Canada total = 254,700 Of the 21,400 Saskatchewan residents who work in the sector, about one third (7,000) are in the mining sector; 3,000 are employed in the oil/gas extraction sector; and the remaining 11,400 work in exploration and support services (either oil/gas or mining). 0 50, , , ,000 June

11 Share of Total Employment Employment in the Mining and Oil/Gas Extraction as a Percentage of Total Employment, 2007 Annual Average Ontario Quebec Manitoba Canada total = 1.5% Employment in the oil/gas sector is a relatively small part (4.3%) of total employment in Saskatchewan. Measured as a share of total employment, the importance is second only to Alberta. British Columbia Atlantic Saskatchewan 4.3% Alberta 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% June

12 Employment Growth by Industry Group Average Employment Growth, 2002 to 2007 Average Forestry, fishing Agriculture Personal and household services Business support services Accommodation and food services Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing Transportation and warehousing Utilities Public administration Retail trade Manufacturing Health care and social assistance Wholesale trade Information, culture and recreation Educational services Professional, scientific and technical services Construction Mining and oil and gas extraction Prov Avg 1.4% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% June

13 Trends over Time 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 Employment in Saskatchewan's Oil/Gas Sector Oil and Gas Extraction Support Activities for Mining and Oil/Gas All of the employment growth in the past ten years has come in the support activities part of the sector. Employment has tripled in the past ten years, growing from less than 4,000 in the mid 1990s to almost 12,000 last year. 4,000 2, June

14 Age and Gender 14,000 12,000 Employment in Mining/Oil/Gas, Saskatchewan, by Age Group Virtually all (91% in 2007) of those in the sector are men. Most of the women working in the sector will be in head office jobs. 10,000 8,000 6,000 4, to & Older Until the last couple of years, the growth in employment has largely been among older and younger workers. 2,000 Under June

15 Completed Education Levels 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 Employment in Mining/Oil/Gas, Saskatchewan, by Level of Completed Formal Education Certificate/ Diploma Grade 12 Only Relatively few employees are at the extremes - less than grade 12 or a university degree. All of the growth in the past ten years has been among those with Grade 12 or a certificate/diploma. 4,000 3,000 2,000 Less than Grade 12 1,000 0 Degree June

16 Type of Jobs 2,500 Employment in Mining/Oil/Gas, Saskatchewan The vast majority of jobs in the sector are full-time permanent positions. 2,000 1,500 Multiple Job Holder Temporary The figure shows that the number of selfemployed individuals is increasing somewhat but still accounts for only 10% of those in the sector. 1,000 Selfemployed 500 Part-time June

17 Tenure 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 Tenure (years with the same employer), Employment in Mining/Oil/Gas, Saskatchewan 10 or more years Less than 3 years New hiring means that an increasing proportion of employees have not been with their current employer for very many years. An aging population, on the other hand, means more employees have longer tenure. 4,000 3 to 9.9 years 2, June

18 Type of Employers 14,000 12,000 10,000 Employer Characteristics, Saskatchewan, Mining and Oil/Gas Sector Employment in smaller (< 100 employees) establishments The growth is more pronounced among smaller employers and those without a union. 8,000 6,000 4,000 union members 2, June

19 Hours of Work 12,000 Actual Hours of Work, Main Job is in Mining/Oil/Gas, Saskatchewan Average hours worked is increasing dramatically. 10,000 8,000 More than 40 hours/ week In 2007, 51% of employees reported working more than 40 hours per week. 6,000 4,000 2,000 under 40 hours/week 40 hours/week June

20 Hourly Wage Rates $28.00 $26.00 $24.00 $22.00 $20.00 $18.00 Average Hourly Wage Rates (in constant $1997), Saskatchewan Mining/Oil/Gas Provincial Average After virtually no growth for several years, wage rates took a big jump in The gap between the provincial average and the mining/oil/gas sector increased from 33% to 40% last year. $16.00 $14.00 $12.00 $ June

21 Summary The key trends in the past five to six years can be summarized as follows. Employment is growing relatively more quickly: among women; among older and younger workers; among Aboriginal people living off Reserve; among lone parents; and among those living in East Central Saskatchewan or in Saskatoon. Employment is growing relatively more quickly: in full-time permanent paid positions; among those who work longer hours; in the private sector (not counting the self-employed); in construction and the resource sector; among those earning $30/hour or more. June

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