Ways to Develop Comprehensive Transport and Logistics Networks in the NEA

Transcription

1 Seminar on Development of Comprehensive Transport and Logistics Networks in the North-East Asia Sub-region Ways to Develop Comprehensive Transport and Logistics Networks in the NEA 22. Mar KIM Hong Mae Senior Researcher Korea Maritime Institute

2 Contents I Trade condition of NEA II Current Issues and Obstacles for Transport in the NEA III The Way Forward 1

3 Ⅰ Trade condition of NEA 국제물류전담기구설립필요성및추진방안에관한연구용역 2

4 1. Trade Volume of NEA Significant Increase of Trade volume in the NEA(Korea, Japan, China, Russia, 7,211.1 bil. USD in 2011, 20% share of world trade volume Annual growth rate : 13.9%(2004~2011), 18.5%(2004~2008) Trade Volume of NEA 80,000 70,000 60,000 Unit : bil. ROK China Russia 5, , ,000 40,000 30,000 2, ,000 10, Source : KITA, IMF. 3

5 2. Trade Volume of Intra-NEA Steady Increase of Trade volume of intra-nea bil. USD in bil. USD in 2012, CAGR 10.6% Share of intra-nea : (04)12.3% (08) 10.6% (11) 11.1% 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Unit : bil. Trade Volume of Intra-NEA 년 2008 년 2012 년 Source : KITA.NET. 4

6 3. Trade Volume Outlook of Intra-NEA Expected to grow steadily Conservative (under the current status) : 1,468.3 bil. USD (2020), CAGR 8.0% Optimistic (take account into FTA etc.) : 1,172.1 bil. USD(2020), CAGR 13.0% Under the Assumption of Trade Increase at the level of 5 % with strengthened international cooperation and trade partnerships like FTA 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 Conservative Scenario 14,683 Unit : 100 mil. 13,596 12,589 11,656 10,793 9,993 9,253 8,568 7,933 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Optimistic Scenario Unit : 100 mil. 21,089 18,663 16,516 14,616 11,446 12,934 10,130 8,964 7,933 4,000 2,000 5,

7 4. Logistics Market Size of NEA The Market Size of logistics in Asia (including NEA) is expected to reach 2.8 tril. USD in 2020 Expected CAGR(2008~2020) : 8.7%, exceeding its GDP growth rate Expected to take 35% share of global logistics market in 2020 Outlook of Global Logistics Market Size Outlook of Asia Logistics Market Size Unit: tril.usd 8.1 Unit:tril.USD 2.8(35.0%) (29.1%) Global Source : IMF, Datamonitor, KMI Estimation Asia Notes : ( ) is share of global logistics market 6

8 5. Overview of Trade Status in NEA Sustainable increase of Trade volume of NEA 20% of world trade volume(2011), showing a steady annual growth rate of 13.9% CAGR since 2004 Stable Level of Intra- Trade Gravity in the NEA under the estimation of trade increase In 2011, the growth rate was 11.1%, staying at the stable level even after financial crisis Expected Increase of Inter-dependence in the NEA Intra-regional trade volume and inter-dependence of NEA countries will be increased with trade vitalization, labor division as well as complementary relationships among NEA countries. Expected growth in the Logistics Market Asia : 35% of the global market in 2020 NEAs : Expected to take more important roles in the global market Potential to Emerge as a Huge Market by Establishing Logistics Networks 7

9 II Current Issues and Obstacles for Transport in the NEA 국제물류전담기구설립필요성및추진방안에관한연구용역 8

10 1. Current Issues of TCR Difference of rail gauge between China and Kaza. Need to solve issues of transshipment and complicated customs policy In-out imbalance Increase empty containers, Higher transport cost by charging round-trip cost Shortage of wagon and license Shortage of wagon in Kaza. Unstable wagon supply depending on the fluctuating demand in Russia Limitation of the number in issuing international road transportation licenses Inefficiency in Customs Clearnace Unnecessary customs procedures that can hinder fast customs clearance services Frequent customs inspection, illegal practices etc. 9

11 2. Current Issues of TSR Difference of rail gauge between China and Russia Need to transshipment Increasing cost Lower cost competitiveness compared to maritime transport routes Need long-term storage due to port congestion, increased terminal storage charges Lack of infrastructure Lack of port facilities port congestion, one train station Delay in developing ports such as Nakhodka port etc. Difficulties of customs Unnecessary requirements for transshipment clearance, complicated procedures and paperwork 10

12 3. Current Issues of TMGR Difference of railway gauge Need to transship, more than 90% cargoes(volume) are moved through railways Shortage of wagon Takes longer time to transship cargoes(maximum 7-8 days) Low efficiency Lack of transshipment infrastructure and outdated manual handling prolong handling operation for transshipment cargoes Using single track rail(mongolia) Prolonged standby causes can delay transport (every 100km) Lack of proper service, Lower competitiveness 11

13 4. Current Issues of NEA Corridors Railway gauge Need transship due to the different railway gauges between China and Russia(including Mongolia, Kaza.) Lack of infrastructures and systems necessary for faster handling of transshipment cargos Shortage of wagon Shortage of wagons of Mongolia and Kaza. Etc. Congestion at transshipment point(??) Russia and China put priorities on strategic commodities and passengers when assigning wagons Low efficiency Backward port infrastructures, customs clearance and transshipment facilities Poor operating system Customs Unnecessary customs procedure, complicated paperwork(repetitive work etc.) Lack of customs information system Cost competitiveness Insufficient commodities to use NEA corridors, increasing cost lack of competitive advantage compare to maritime transport routes 12

14 5. Proposed Solutions for Improvements Improvement of Infrastructure Improve and expand roads connected to the ports Increase loading and unloading capacity through port modernization Construct new ports or remodel existing ports Remove bottleneck of rail transport Expand railway infrastructure, resolve port congestion, modernize transshipment facilities and system Develop new routes Continue to develop sea-land(sea+truck+railway) transportation routes to attain time and cost advantage Improvement of customs procedure Improve unnecessary procedure, standardize documents, construct public information system 13

15 6. Obstacles to Improve Delays in infrastructure improvement and difficulties in funding Need huge amount of funds to improve infrastructures such as roads, railway, ports etc. Absence of concrete funding plans Absence of step-by-step implementation plans Lack of step-by-step plans and solutions to achieve the goal List up agendas for improvement without setting priority Lack of consensus on the need to improve Absence of motivation to improve without benefits to national interest Lack of linkage with regional interests as a result Concentration on improvement of infrastructure Take longer time to improve infrastructures such as railway, roads, ports etc with lack of fund 14

16 III The way forward 국제물류전담기구설립필요성및추진방안에관한연구용역 15

17 1. Analyzing effectiveness Analyze the concrete effect coming from multimodal network establishment Analyze benefits for NEA region and riffle effect on bordering countries Use as the grounds to push ahead central government-led projects Analyze development effects of new routes Analyze effects on the development of new routes from the regional perspective Include volume generating size and benefits for the countries Transform ways of thinking from the benefits for the countries to the whole region Put priorities on benefits for the region and then for the countries The growth of NEA directly relates to countries' benefit 16

18 2. Creating new cargo Focused on development of cargo that is suitable for multimodal transport Need to alternative that is able to expand limited items Institutional agreement to induce LCL cargo Limit to create more FCL cargo, LCL is new alternative to increase multimodal transport volume Possible to induce through the improvement of rail B/L system Expand mutual access of truck To expand of truck is key factor to develop new transport route Push forward preferentially than discussion Establishment information system to minimize empty load ratio in early stage 17

19 3. Improving systems Improvement of related institution by country Focused on better system improvement than infra. improvement Improvement of unreasonable system expand new items and route Expand FTA among neighboring countries Strengthen cost competitiveness of multimodal transport with decreasing tariffs Making easy to integrate system such as customs clearance Foundation of joint logistics company Company that can be able to control wagon, customs, transport, etc. Outsourced multimodal transport from each country s logistics company 18

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