MITT ROMNEY S RACE FOR THE NOMINATION February 8-11, 2007

Transcription

1 CBS NEWS POLL For Release: Tuesday, February 13, :30 pm ET MITT ROMNEY S RACE FOR THE NOMINATION February 8-11, 2007 Republican Mitt Romney, the former Governor of Massachusetts, has announced his candidacy for president. But he still remains unknown to most Americans, including eight in 10 Republicans, according to a CBS News Poll conducted before he made his announcement. Romney may also face an obstacle because of his Mormon religion. A majority of Americans says they would vote for a qualified Mormon from either party for President, but fewer have favorable views of the Mormon religion than of many other religions. 85% of Americans are undecided or haven t heard enough about former Governor Romney to offer an opinion of him, and among those who can, opinion is divided. Those likely to vote in a Republican primary or caucus are inclined to have favorable views of Romney: 15% have a favorable opinion of him, while 9% view him unfavorably. Conservatives hold a positive view of Romney by 2 to 1, but white evangelicals (53% of whom are Republican) are more split in their opinions: 5% have a favorable impression of him, but 8% have an unfavorable one. OPINION OF MITT ROMNEY Rep. Primary White All Voters Reps Dems Ind Cons. Evang. Favorable 6% 15% 13% 2% 5% 13% 5% Not favorable Undecided Haven t heard enough Mitt Romney is not the first Mormon to seek the presidency. His dad, George Romney, ran as a Republican in 1968, and Utah Senator Orrin Hatch also had a short-lived run in In this poll, Americans were asked whether they would vote for a Mormon candidate for president - without the mention of Mitt Romney s name. 63% of voters would vote for a qualified Republican candidate who was Mormon, and 66% say they would support a qualified Democrat of the same faith. Still, about a quarter say they would NOT vote for a Mormon candidate for president. VOTE FOR A QUALIFIED MORMON CANDIDATE IF HE/SHE WERE (Among registered voters) A REPUBLICAN? A DEMOCRAT? Rep. Primary Dem. Primary All Voters All Voters Yes 63% 67% Yes 66% 72% No No 24 17

2 When the two questions are combined, seven in 10 American voters overall say they could vote for a qualified Mormon. This includes 5% who would only vote for a Mormon who is a Democrat, and 8% who would only vote for a Republican who is Mormon. There are some differences among religious groups. Six in 10 Protestant voters say they would support a Mormon candidate from either party for president, compared to seven in 10 Catholic voters who say that. Among white evangelical voters, 59% say they would vote for a qualified Republican candidate who is Mormon, while fewer - 50% - say they would support a qualified Democratic candidate of the Mormon faith. The majorities who say they would vote for a Mormon for president are smaller than those who said they would vote for a woman or a black candidate in a CBS News Poll conducted last month. In that poll, over eight in 10 voters said they would vote a qualified black candidate of either party. As for a qualified woman candidate, 77% said they would vote for her if she were a Republican, while 82% would back her if she were a Democrat. WOULD YOU VOTE FOR A QUALIFIED FOR PRESIDENT? (Among registered voters) Mormon candidate if he/she were A Republican? A Democrat? Now Now Yes 63% 66% No Black candidate if he/she were A Republican? A Democrat? 1/2007 1/2007 Yes 85% 87% No 11 9 Woman if she were A Republican? A Democrat? 1/2007 1/2007 Yes 77% 82 No When John F. Kennedy ran for president in 1960 there were concerns about his being a Catholic. But in a May 1960 Gallup Poll, 71% of Americans said they would vote for a generally well-qualified man for President if he happened to be a Catholic. THE MORMON RELIGION AND OTHER FAITHS When compared with some other religions practiced in America, positive views of the Mormon religion rank below those for Protestantism, Catholicism, Judaism, and Christian fundamentalist faiths. Only Islam, of all the religions asked about, ranks lower. 25% of Americans say they have a favorable impression of the Mormon religion, while three in 10 view the religion unfavorably. Another 39%

3 haven t heard enough about the religion to say. Other religions are viewed more favorably: Protestantism (61%), Catholicism (51%), Judaism (48%), and Christian fundamentalist religions (35%). Although half the public view the Catholic religion positively, 30% have an unfavorable impression of the religion the same number who view the Mormon religion unfavorably. WHAT IS YOUR IMPRESSION OF? Haven t heard Favorable Unfavorable enough Protestantism/other Christians 61% 13 23% The Catholic religion 51% The Jewish religion 48% Christian fundamentalist religion s 35% The Mormon religion 25% Islam 15% Protestants are more likely than Catholics to hold unfavorable opinions of the Mormon religion. In addition, 45% of white evangelicals view Mormonism unfavorably. It should be noted that Americans are not very familiar with the Mormon religion and its practices. When asked directly how much they know about the Mormon religion, 57% say they know little or nothing about it. This number is higher than nearly all the other religions asked about in this poll except for Islam -- 60% say they know little or nothing about that religion and its practices. The public is most familiar with the practices of Christian religions such as Catholicism and Protestantism. HOW MUCH DO YOU KNOW ABOUT? A Great Not much/ Deal Some Nothing The Catholic religion 36% Protestantism/other Christians 25% Christian fundamentalists religions 20% The Jewish religion 12% The Mormon religion 10% Islam 6% This poll was conducted among a random sample of 1,142 adults nationwide, interviewed by telephone February 8-11, The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher.

4 CBS NEWS POLL Mitt Romney s Race for the Nomination February 8-11, 2007 q20 How much would you say you know about Christian fundamentalist religions and their practices -- a ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** **** Party ID **** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % A great deal Some Not very much Nothing at all Don't know q21 How much would you say you know about the Mormon religion and its practices -- a A great deal Some Not very much Nothing at all Don t know q22 How much would you say you know about the Catholic religion and its practices -- a ** HALF SAMPLE W ** A great deal Some Not very much Nothing at all q23 How much would you say you know about other Christian religions, such as Protestantism and its practices -- a ** HALF SAMPLE Y ** A great deal Some Not very much Nothing at all Don t know q24 How much would you say you know about the Jewish religion and its practices -- a ** HALF SAMPLE X ** A great deal Some Not very much Nothing at all Don't know

5 q25 How much would you say you know about the religion of Islam and its practices -- a ** HALF SAMPLE Z ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % A great deal Some Not very much Nothing at all Don't know q29 If the Republican Party nominated a Mormon for President, would you vote for that person if he or she were qualified for the job? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** Yes No DK/NA q30 If the Democratic Party nominated a Mormon for President, would you vote for that person if he or she were qualified for the job? Yes No DK/NA q33 Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Mitt Romney yet to have an opinion? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** Jan07a % Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused q74 What is your impression of Christian fundamentalist religions? As of today, is it very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, very unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about that to say? Apr06a Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable Haven't heard enough Don't know/no answer

6 q75 What is your impression of the Mormon religion? As of today, is it very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, very unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about that to say? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** **** Party ID **** Total Rep Dem Ind Apr06a % % % % % Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable Haven't heard enough Don't know/no answer q76 What is your impression of the Catholic religion? As of today, is it very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, very unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about that to say? ** HALF SAMPLE W ** Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable Haven't heard enough Don't know/no answer q77 What is your impression of other Christian religions, such as Protestantism? As of today, is it very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, very unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about that to say? ** HALF SAMPLE X ** Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable Haven't heard enough Don't know/no answer q78 What is your impression of the Jewish religion? As of today, is it very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, very unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about that to say? ** HALF SAMPLE Y ** Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable Haven't heard enough Don't know/no answer

7 q79 What is your impression of the religion called Islam? As of today, is it very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, very unfavorable, or haven't you heard enough about that to say? ** HALF SAMPLE Z ** **** Party ID **** Total Rep Dem Ind Apr06a % % % % % Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable Haven't heard enough Don't know/no answer UNWEIGHTED Total Respondents 1142 WEIGHTED Total Republicans Total Democrats Total Independents Total Registered Voters Half Sample W Half Sample X Half Sample Y Half Sample Z