March 7th, 2014 Bergen, Norway

Transcription

1 March 7th, 2014 Bergen, Norway The imbalance cost of operating wind farms in the UK, and the impact on asset owner s return on investment. Science meets Industry offshore wind, 9 th September Presented by, Geir-Arne Mo, CEO, Aquiloz

2 Page 2 Customers Asset Owners Portfolio Managers of wind parks Nordic Iberia

3 Page 3 Price definitions for the UK power market. DAM price = day ahead price Spot price (reference price) = intraday price. Imbalance prices = actual imbalance prices Main price - imbalance price when you are contributing to the total market imbalance. Reverse price - imbalance price when you are not contributing to the total market imbalance.

4 Page UK day ahead and intraday prices in 2013 Spot Price DAM Price MWh Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Jul 13 Aug 13 Sep 13 Oct 13 Nov 13 Dec 13

5 Page 5 Day ahead, intraday and imbalance prices from 2012 July 2014 APX Market Price Data * * DAM Price DAM Price DAM Price Ref Price Ref Price Ref Price Mean Max Min Stdev * To August 2014

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7 Corporate presentation Page 7 Imbalance market prices in UK Sell Buy DAM Sell price mean : MWh Buy price mean : MWh DAM price mean : MWh 250 MWh Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Jul 13 Aug 13 Sep 13 Oct 13 Nov 13 Dec 13

8 Page 8 Imbalance prices in UK, depending on contributing or not, to the total imbalance market Main Price Reverse Price Per MWh SSP SBP SSP SBP Mean Max Min Stdev Main Price Reverse Price Per MWh SSP SBP SSP SBP Mean Max Min Stdev * Main Price Reverse Price Per MWh SSP SBP SSP SBP Mean Max Min Stdev

9 Page 9 The difference between imbalance- and day ahead prices when buying in ,00 250,00 Main buy ref buy 200,00 150,00 100,00 50,00 0,00 50,00 100,00 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Jul 13 Aug 13 Sep 13 Oct 13 Nov 13 Dec 13

10 Page 10 The difference between imbalance- and day ahead prices when selling in ,00 Main sell Ref sell 250,00 200,00 150,00 100,00 50,00 0,00 50,00 100,00 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Jul 13 Aug 13 Sep 13 Oct 13 Nov 13 Dec 13

11 Page 11 Day ahead, intraday and imbalance prices from 2012 July 2014 DAM price minus Main buy Main sell minus DAM price per MWh * * Mean Max Min Stdev * To August 2014

12 Page 12 Cost of Imbalance in UK. Market conditions * Long 61.7% 61.5% 67.3% Short 38.3% 38.5% 32.7% Imbalance prices in * Part of imbalance * 50 % % % % % * To August 2014

13 Page 13 Benchmarking results summary Trading period Intraday (1-6 hours ahead) Day ahead (12, 18, 24, 48 hours ahead) % Improvement Land based Offshore % % % % Forecasting benefits: In the day-ahead and intraday market Aquiloz System can improve the forecasting performance with 15 35%. Decision making benefits: Traders are expected to achieve an additional 10% on the basis of more timely and better information. Benchmark: Aquiloz performance against customer s in-house systems. In-house systems reported to outperform the best external service providers by 5-10 %. Confidential

14 Page 14 Assumptions and Industry Benchmarks. Assumptions & inputs Installed capacity 1000 MW Production capacity factor 42% Average production 420,00 MW Day-ahead auction price 2013 (DAM Price) 49,68 per MWh Yearly income (DAM price only) Average imbalance price 2013 (contributing 70% of the time) 10,61 per MWh Forecast performance (MAPE) normalized against average production Industry benchmark day-ahead (12-36 hours ahead) 27,38% Aquiloz day-ahead (12-36 hours ahead) 21,90% Industry benchmark intraday (1-3 hours ahead) 19,05% Aquiloz intraday (1-3 hours ahead) 15,24% Forecast performance (MAPE) normalized against installed capacity Industry benchmark day-ahead (12-36 hours ahead) 11,50 % Aquiloz day-ahead (12-36 hours ahead) 9,20 % Industry benchmark intraday (1-3 hours ahead) 8,00 % Aquiloz intraday (1-3 hours ahead) 6,40 %

15 Page 15 Value propositions Day ahead average imbalance volume & cost Industry benchmark imbalance volume 115,00 MW Aquiloz imbalance volume 92,00 MW Industry benchmark imbalance costs Aquiloz imbalance costs Intraday average imbalance volume & cost Industry benchmark imbalance volume 80,00 MW Aquiloz imbalance volume 64,00 MW Industry benchmark imbalance costs Aquiloz imbalance costs Average Imbalance cost reduction Day-ahead Intraday

16 Page 16 Summary The average imbalance cost for UK was MWh in 2013 The wind power industry in average get 2.9 MWh less paid for the actual power they produce due to imbalance cost. The imbalance cost is 5.85 % of the average day ahead price. 20 % improvements in day ahead power predictions compared to industry benchmark will give a daily saving of 5,85 per MW installed capacity. The imbalance cost has decreased so far for 2014, why? 1. More active intraday trading, more cost is taken when rebalancing the portfolio in the intraday market. 2. Better power prediction forecasting.