Terms of Reference Impact evaluation of the Targeting the Ultra Poor (TUP) Project in Bamyan and Badakhshan provinces of Afghanistan

Transcription

1 Terms of Reference Impact evaluation of the Targeting the Ultra Poor (TUP) Project in Bamyan and Badakhshan provinces of Afghanistan 1.0 Background Despite the progress in improving macroeconomic stability, poverty remains the biggest problem for Afghanistan. Some latest surveys showed that almost every other Afghan is living under the poverty line. Moreover, an estimated 45% of the population is unable to purchase sufficient food to guarantee the world standard minimum food intake of 2,100 cal/day. An additional 20% of the population is concentrated close to the poverty line is at risk of falling into poverty. A decade of relentless political violence through years of civil war before 2001, the predominantly rural economy was severely weakened. Livelihoods were devastated by the decimation of livestock and agriculture production. In addition to the high incidence of consumption disparity, there is a significant difference in poverty levels among provinces, and between rural and urban communities as 36% and 21% respectively. Most of the rural women of Afghanistan are faced with vulnerable living conditions in terms of income, security, social protection, availability and access to food due to absence of a male head of household killed during war and loss of assets. This vulnerable group has a very low resilience and is very much prone to use resilience-damaging coping strategies for survival of their family members. Moreover, the vast majority of women do not participate in paid work, making them highly dependent on their husbands or families or any kind of unusual jobs. The literacy rate among women is also very low when compared to that of men. Poverty levels in Afghanistan vary by season. This further compounds the understanding of poverty in Afghanistan. The food security monitoring survey suggests that households tend to have the richest consumption in summer following the harvest with restricted food consumption during winter. Afghanistan has the lowest level of economic inequality in South Asia as measured by the Gini coefficient inequality does exist between many segments of Afghan society. The country s rural population is approximately 80 percent of the national total. The chief characteristics or rural poverty is high food insecurity and a lack of access to infrastructure and basic public services. Rural Afghans suffer from a high degree of illiteracy and a low level of education. Rural households are highly dependent on agriculture, although non-farm activity has begun to play a bigger role in survival strategy of the rural poor. The poorest of rural households are those who live in remote and mountainous areas, who do not possess land or livestock, and whose head of family is illiterate or without any education. Over the years, Afghanistan has made only modest progress in reducing poverty with around a third of its population living in poverty. Poverty remains a serious concern. The lack of social assets in terms of deficient skills, scant access to basic services education, health, water supply and sanitation and social exclusion is the major constraint to reducing poverty in Afghanistan. A large section of the population still lives in poverty and a significant section of the population are still trapped in extreme poverty. The poorest have lower level of assets, less employment opportunities, and greater vulnerability to economic shocks. They are unlikely to participate in the conventional microfinance programmes since they are too poor or too vulnerable to follow the repayment schedule. There is an urgent need for more effective social safety nets and programs specifically targeted at the poorest. New livelihood security approaches are needed to address the specific constraints of the ultra poor.

2 2.0 Overview of the Targeting the Ultra Poor program Its overarching goal is to reduce the vulnerability and improve the livelihood, income, food security, and nutritional status of poor and vulnerable rural households on a sustainable basis. MISFA is almost 10 years old working supporting Microfinance Institutions, however, four years back, MISFA had an important learning that microfinance is not the ultimate solution for the development of the poor. Besides credit, a lot of other interventions are required for ensuring holistic development of the poor. The TUP project was piloted in three districts of Bamyan province in March 2010 and was completed in June It was implemented by BRAC, with close oversight by the Microfinance Investment Support Facility for Afghanistan (MISFA). Given the successful implementation and the evident impact on the first batch of TUP beneficiaries, MISFA received funding to scale it up to two districts of Badakshan, yet another one among the poorest provinces of Afghanistan. The TUP program is composed of several components such as asset transfer especially livestock asset, periodic stipend, health subsidy, poverty reduction committee (PRC), and scheduled household visit by program personnel for capacity building activities. These components are interlinked to each other to maximize the outcome of the program. For instance, productive assets i.e. livestock are given to each TUP beneficiary who is supposed to take good care of asset. As compensation of time invested for looking after livestock, each TUP is given periodic allowance as opportunity cost of selling labour outside. The TUP has to be physically fit to rear livestock without suffering any disease and sickness. So, each TUP is given health subsidy on presentation of prescription from government hospital. Implementing partner buys medicine for them and delivered immediately. The program organizer (livelihood), program organizer (health), and program organizer (social development) visit each and every TUP to follow-up their livestock asset, deliver health information, and social awareness respectively. On top of these each TUP is provided three days training on livestock rearing along with refresher in every six months. There was also a poverty reduction committee (PRC) in each village. The PRC oversees the TUP members to help them in need. For instance, collecting winter clothes, ensuring schooling for kids, raising fund for helping poorest of the poor. Each TUP receives their choices of livestock, a fixed monthly stipend, and health subsidy for two years. Each TUP also received vaccination and treatment services for their livestock from the implementing partner at free of cost for whole program period. This program was being implemented in Bamyan and Badakhshan provinces of Afghanistan. In total, there were 1,200 beneficiaries who received the TUP services in 5 districts of Bamyan and Badakhshan provinces. To achieve its objectives, the project is designed to achieve the following improvements: a) Improvement in human capital of the TUP beneficiaries through provision of different capacity development initiatives. b) Improvement in financial capital of the TUP beneficiaries through provision of assets and making them capable to use them for regular income and savings. c) Improvement in physical assets holding of the TUP beneficiaries through the increment of their income and purchasing more assets. d) Improvement in social capital of the TUP beneficiaries through creating a forward market linkage for selling their products and also ensuring other amenities bringing in a change in their social status.

3 3.0 Objectives of the TUP project impact evaluation The impact evaluation of the TUP project is required by MISFA. It will provide the decisionmakers in the Government of Afghanistan, MISFA and the other relevant stakeholders with sufficient information to: a) Make an overall independent assessment about the past performance of the project, paying particular attention to the impact of the project actions against its objectives; b) Identify key lessons and propose practical recommendations for follow-up actions, which will be used for future MISFA programs to learn lessons and improve practice for future projects. c) Study the relevance of the project output and outcome towards achieving the impact. d) Assess the efficiency and effectiveness of the TUP. e) Provide the recommendation for the way forward for the non-graduated beneficiaries. f) Study the impact of the graduated beneficiaries after linking with the MFIs. The primary concern of all evaluations is the impact of MISFA s work on the rights and welfare of poor and marginalized people in Afghanistan. MISFA will strive to develop evaluation methods that contribute to the empowerment of the intended beneficiaries, enabling them to articulate their aspirations and opinions regarding the efficacy of MISFA s interventions. MISFA requires a consultant to carry out a qualitative study to investigate the following questions: (a) Was the venture accomplished in developing the human capital, financial capital, physical asset holding and social capital of the beneficiaries and led to an overall empowerment of the beneficiaries? (b) If it is an effective approach, how can it be scaled up? If not, what would be a better approach? (c) Was the graduation criteria and process effective? If not, what can be done to improve the procedure? One of the major issues the consultant has to analyze is whether the beneficiaries are, at present, leading a better and improved life style when compared to their situation before the project. And also needs to identify whether after the project has ended and MISFA has handed over the beneficiaries to the local government authorities, how has that affected the growth of the beneficiaries. The consultant also has to critically analyze the impact of linking the beneficiaries with the MFIs for micro-credit facilities. The consultant should review the approach considering areas of success, challenges and recommend future approaches. Both analysis and recommendations should also be cognizant of the TUP context. The consultant is expected to draw conclusions from a variety of different stakeholders including project participants, MISFA personnel, partners, government and donors. In doing so, it is expected from the consultant to provide emphasis on: (a) Challenges encountered while program implementation. (b) Appropriateness of the package of inputs including the level of support. (c) Analyze the process and procedures of the program and evaluate the effectiveness. (d) Management commitment and quality of staff involved in program operations. (e) Beneficiary targeting procedure and problems encountered during targeting. (f) Participation from the community and other local government authorities. (g) Chances of creation of permanent forward linkages for the beneficiaries. (h) Usefulness of linking the beneficiaries with MFIs for micro-credit. (i) Effectiveness of handing over the beneficiaries to the local community leaders. (j) Challenges for scaling up.

4 4.0 Duties and responsibilities of the consultant The responsibilities of the consultant will be as follows: a) Design a research methodology, including key areas of questioning, in agreement with MISFA TUP project staffs. b) Design the selection methodology of sampled beneficiaries, identifying focus groups and key informant interviews and structure/semi-structured questionnaires. c) Desk review of documents relating to the implementation of the TUP project. d) Field based research on the impact of the TUP project, including strengths, challenges and future sustainability. e) Analysis on the impact of the TUP project on the ultra-poor households. Final study to include findings, analysis and recommendations. Consult with relevant MISFA project staff throughout the process. 5.0 Expected output The consultant is supposed to be coming out with a narrative report providing details about the study methodology, whether the objectives of the impact evaluation has been met or not, and a conclusion with some probable recommendations for the future projects. The consultant is expected to present the draft of the final findings through a Power-point presentation with the MISFA management and based on the discussion and evaluation, the final report has to be finalized and shared with MISFA management. 6.0 Timeline This assignment is supposed to be for 30 days, to be completed by September Activities Expected no. of days Review of project documents 03 Meeting with MISFA project staffs and implementing partners 01 Finalization of the research methodology 01 Field work in communities 15 Field work in the offices of MISFA and the implementing 03 partners Debriefing of findings to MISFA 01 Draft report 03 Sharing the draft report for further comments 01 Finalization of the report and presentation to MISFA Experience and qualification of the consultant This work requires a highly-skilled consultant with substantial professional experience in a relevant field with proven research and analytical skills in measuring the social economic impact of community-led development. The consultant should have evidence of carrying out similar studies elsewhere in the world and have a good knowledge of TUP projects. The consultant should be available to take on this assignment as soon as possible. A final presentation of findings and results (first discussed with the project team), will be made at the final project wrap-up meeting, currently scheduled for end of September All work and invoices must be received by 30 th September Reporting and contracting The overall study and all contractual arrangements will be managed by MISFA. The consultant will report to Khalil Rahman Baheer, Director Program, at MISFA (details below). MISFA will facilitate the consultant while in Afghanistan, with all logistical arrangements, including facilitating hotel and transport and translation services.

5 The consultant will be paid a daily rate for work undertaken. Accommodation and daily expenses will be reimbursed separately, on submission of receipts. Khalil Rahman Baheer Director Program MISFA khalil.baheer@msfa.org.af Contact: