FDI Inflows in Romania
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- Gervase Lindsey
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1 Preliminary Draft For discussion only FDI Inflows in Romania Mihai Copaciu CEROPE Bucharest, May 10, 2011
2 Aims of the paper 1. Overall FDI trends 1.1. Size and structure of the stock 1.2.FDI&Foreign trade&labour costs 2. Identify the main determinants of FDI inflows 2.1. macro data (EU10) 2.2. impact of institutional variables 3. Determine the main effects of FDI firms on the domestic economy micro data (to be completed) 4. A set of policy recommendations
3 1.Overall FDI trends 1.1. Size and structure of the stock 1.2.FDI & Foreign trade & labor costs
4 1.Overall FDI trends Increasing FDI inflows starting with 2004 (Expectation of) EU membership; International context characterized by abundant liquidity and a relatively low degree of risk aversion; But still faster increase in the current account, the latter financed increasingly through (short term) debt creating inflows. Significant adjustment in FDI inflows after the beginning of the crisis Increased risk aversion; Increased probability of capital outflows => agreement with IFIs; Current account deficit adjusted significantly reflecting the drop in both internal and external demand.
5 1.1.Lowest FDI stock in per capita terms FDI stock per capita (euro) 2009 Romania Lithuania Poland Latvia Bulgaria Slovenia Slovakia Hungary Czech Republic Estonia Source: Eurostat, own calculations
6 1.1.EU10: Structure of the FDI stock to GDP ratio EU10-Structure of the inward FDI stock (% of GDP, 2009) Not allocated Services Constructions and Energy Manufacturing Agriculture and Mining Bulgaria* Czech Republic* Estonia* Hungary* Lithuania Latvia Poland Romania Slovenia Slovakia* Source: Eurostat ; *- latest data available for 2008
7 1.1.Romania: structure of the FDI stock to GDP ratio Romania-Structure of the inward FDI stock (% of GDP, ) Agriculture and Mining Manufacturing Constructions and Energy Services Source: Eurostat
8 Structure of the inward FDI stock in manufacturing (% of GDP, 2009) Manufacturing oriented FDI most of them resource and efficiency seeking Bulgaria:15.1% Czech Rep.:19.1% Estonia:10.0% Latvia: 5.0% Lithuania:10.1% Hungary:16.3% Poland:13.2% Romania:13.8% Slovenia:7.4% Slovakia:20.7% 0 Food products Total textiles and w ood activities Total Total metal and petroleum, mechanical chemical, products rubber, plastic products Source: Eurostat, *- latest data available for 2008 Total office machinery, computers, RTV, comm. eq. Manufacture of medical, precision and optical instr., w atches Total vehicles and other transport equipment Miscellaneous manufacturing
9 1.1. Services oriented FDI mostly market seeking Structure of the inward FDI stock in services (% of GDP, 2009) Bulgaria:62.5% Czech Rep.: 29.6% Estonia:53.9% Latvia:32.1% Lithuania:21.9% Hungary:37.5% Poland:24.2% 10 5 Romania:23.5% Slovenia:20.8% Slovacia:27.8% 0 Trade and repairs Hotels and restaurants Transport and storage Post and telecom Financial intermediation Business activities Real estate Other services Source: Eurostat, *- latest data available for 2008
10 1.2. FDI firms make most of Romania s external trade Romania export and import activity of FDI firms in 2009 Exports (FOB) Imports (CIF) mil. euro % of total sector mil. euro % of total sector Total economy Industry, of which: Manufacturing Trade Other activities Source: NBR, NSI (Foreign Direct Investments in Romania in 2009)
11 1.2. In 2010 Romania had among the EU10 countries the highest exports level relative to the maximum reached in 2008 EU exports/imports as a share of 2008 exports/imports (%) Slovenia Slovakia Romania Poland Hungary Lithuania Exports Imports Latvia Estonia Czech Rep. Bulgaria Source: Eurostat, own calculations
12 1.2. Increasing share of higher added value exports High technology exports* as a share of manufactured exports (%) Euro area European Union Bulgaria Czech Republic Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Poland Romania Slovak Republic Slovenia Source: World Bank, * High-technology exports are products with high R&D intensity, such as in aerospace, computers, pharmaceuticals, scientific instruments, and electrical machinery.
13 1.2. Significant comparative advantage in terms of relative costs Hourly labor costs (euro) EU27 Euro area 16 Bulgaria Czech Rep. Estonia Latvia Lithuania Hungary Poland Romania Slovenia Slovakia Business economy Manuf acturing Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply Construction Services* Source: Eurostat, Labor Force Survey *- Services except public administration, defense, compulsory social security, activities of households as employers and extra-territorial organizations and bodies.
14 1. FDI in Romania main features FDI in manufacturing (stock of 13.8% of GDP in 2009): Resource and efficiency seeking; Mostly vertical nature; FDI firms make most of Romania s foreign trade; Still relatively low, but increasing share of higher value added exports in total external trade. FDI in services (stock of 23.5% of GDP in 2009): Mostly market seeking; Both vertical and horizontal nature. FDI in agriculture and mining very small In terms of labor costs Romania still has a significant comparative advantage relative to the other EU10 countries (except Bulgaria), EU and EA16.
15 2. EU10: main determinants of FDI inflows 2.1. Macro data 2.2. Impact of institutional variables
16 2. EU10 Main determinants of FDI inflows EU10 panel regressions The same methodology as Walsh and Yu (2010) besides total FDI determinants, trying to see if they differ whether the FDI flows into the tradable or non-tradable sectors: Tradable sector FDI: agriculture+minning+manufacturing; Non-tradable sector FDI: constructions+energy+services; Checking the relevance (one by one) of institutional variables; Data sources: Eurostat (FDI and sectoral data), WDI, EBRD and Transparency International (for institutional variables).
17 2.1. Aggregate FDI inflows macroeconomic determinants Variables Total FDI inflows/gdp Openness 0.118*** (0.035) REER * (0.093) Inflation (0.085) FDI stock lagged (0.000) GDP growth 0.175** (0.076) GDP per capita at PPS *** (0.043) Sargan p-value Standard errors in parentheses. A decrease/increase in REER means a depreciation/appreciation in real terms of the domestic currency. * p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01 Higher FDI inflows result from: an increase in the openness degree of the economy lower relative costs (REER depreciation in real terms) higher GDP growth Lower GDP/capita at PPS
18 2.1. Tradable sector oriented FDI macroeconomic determinants FDI inflows/gdp in the Variables tradable sector Openness 0.027** (0.013) REER * (0.040) Inflation (0.065) FDI stock lagged (0.000) GDP growth (0.030) GDP per capita at PPS (0.019) Sargan p-value Standard errors in parentheses. A decrease/increase in REER means a depreciation/appreciation in real terms of the domestic currency. * p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01 Higher FDI inflows in the tradable sector result from: an increase in the openness degree of the economy lower relative costs (REER depreciation in real terms)
19 2.1. Non-tradable sector oriented FDI macroeconomic determinants FDI inflows/gdp in the Variables nontradable sector Openness (0.046) REER (0.132) Inflation (0.271) FDI stock lagged (0.001) GDP growth 0.172* (0.094) GDP per capita at PPS (0.069) Sargan p-value Standard errors in parentheses. A decrease/increase in REER means a depreciation/appreciation in real terms of the domestic currency. * p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01 Higher FDI inflows in the non-tradable sector result from: higher GDP growth (higher growth potential of the domestic market).
20 2.2. EU10:The impact of institutional variables Mixed results regarding the impact of education (primary, secondary and tertiary enrollment) on FDI inflows. Privatization of the state owned system increases FDI inflows, both in the tradable and non-tradable sector. Better governance and enterprise restructuring have also a positive impact on FDI inflows, both in the tradable and non-tradable sectors. Banking reform and interest rate liberalization has a positive impact on FDI in the tradable sector.
21 2.2. EU10:The impact of institutional variables No impact of perceived level of corruption on FDI inflows. An improved competition policy leads to higher FDI inflows especially in the tradable sector. Better roads and railways infrastructure lead to higher FDI in the tradable sector. Improved telecommunications and railways infrastructures positively affect the FDI inflows in the non-tradable sector.
22 4.Romania: policy recommendations
23 4. Increasing role for the institutional factors Foster the openness of the economy and thus strengthen the real convergence process The openness degree of the Romanian economy is still rather low compared to the other EU10 countries. Encourage investments in the more capital intensive sectors (vertical spillovers) Labor costs gap expected to diminish throughout the real converge process, with some of the FDI relocating towards lower labor costs regions (e.g. textiles). Market specific and institutional factors will be more important in an economy s whose competitiveness is increasingly based on more capital intensive goods.
24 4.Privatization Restructuring the still state owned enterprises is a must. Choose between further privatization, preferable in a high transparency way, or assure competitive governance for these firms. The latter can be seen also an intermediate step towards privatization, aiming at improving the performance of state-owned firms.
25 4.Corporate governance and enterprise restructuring Although a governance code exists for the listed companies, Romania ranked at the end of 2010 lowest among EU10 countries for this indicator. The initiative of AmCham to adopt a code of corporate governance code for its members is an example for authorities to extend such a code economy wide. This will enhance long term capital investments, both domestic and foreign.
26 4.Competition policy Among EU10 countries, Romania ranked last at the end of Positive developments especially in terms of legislation. Further steps: Unrestricted entry should go together with an efficient monitoring from the competent authorities. Competition Council - adding human resources with skills in law and quantitative analysis to the already existing one should become a priority.
27 4.Infrastructure The low quality of infrastructure has been continuously mentioned as a drawback for Romania in attracting more FDI. Give full priority to projects aimed at improving the existing infrastructure or developing new one. As a support for these actions, increasing the absorption capacity of EU funds should receive an at least equal attention.
28 4.Corruption For EU10 estimations do not show a significant impact of perceived corruption level on FDI inflows. For Romania it has been also frequently mentioned by foreign investors as an obstacle for higher FDI inflows in Romania. Although progress has been made, increasing further the efficiency and the accountability of the judicial system is a must.
29 4. Time consistency Do not obstruct the business environment by increased volatility induced by political tensions, frequent changes in the legislation, fiscal one included. A time consistent policy, say what you do and do what you say type is the primary condition that should be respected in order not only to facilitate more FDI inflows, but also to ensure a smooth functioning of the economy as a whole.
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