Portuguese Market Report

Transcription

1 T H E W O R L D O F P R O P E R T Y Portuguese Market Report 1

2 INDEX 1. Portugal Economic Overview 2. Lisbon Office Market 3. Retail Market Lisbon High Street 4. Retail Market Shopping Centres 5. Logistic Industrial Great Lisbon Market 6. Investment Market 7. Outlook for Contacts & Confidentiality 2

3 1. Portugal Economic Overview 3

4 1.1 MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS GDP Evolution YoY Growth Rate (%) Source: EUROSTAT : Positive evolution of GDP, justified by investment and exportations increase 4

5 1.1 MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS Since 2013, the unemployment rate decreased around 6%. Regarding the year of 2014, the average annual rate stood at 13.9%, lower than the previous year (16.25%). Analyzing the third quarter of 2015, the unemployment rate decreased. About the consumer price general index, it has registered a decrease justified by Food and Beverages classes. Unemployment and Inflation Rate (2010 to Q3 2015) - 5,8% Source: INE 5

6 1.1 MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS The performance of the national economic activity in 2014 reflected a continuation of the recovery process initiated in For 2015, projections for the Portuguese economy continue to point to a gradual recovery in the long-term. These forecasts are from Bank of Portugal, and are based on the expectation of a sustained increase of exports, which contributes to the maintenance of a high current account surplus. Portugal Forecasts 2015 to 2020 Real Growth Rates (%) 2015 f 2016 f 2017 f 2018 f 2019 f 2020 f BP IMF BP IMF BP IMF IMF IMF IMF GDP 1,7 1,6 1,9 1,5 2,0 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,2 Private Consumption 2,2 1,7 1,7 1,6 1,7 1,5 1,3 1,1 1,1 Public Consumption -0,5-0,5 0,2 0,9 0,0 1,1 0,8 0,7 0,5 Investment 6,2 4,2 4,4 2,5 6,0 2,4 2,4 2,4 2,4 Exports 4,8 5,5 6,0 4,8 6,4 4,7 4,5 4,4 4,3 Imports 5,7 4,5 5,5 4,8 6,5 5,0 4,8 4,6 4,5 Inflation (HICP) 0,5 0,6 1,3 1,3 1,3 1,5 1,6 1,7 1,7 Public Debt (% GDP) 127,7 127,1 124,2 124,4 122,0 122,0 120,4 119,4 118,6 Government Deficit -2,7-3,1-2,5-2,7-2,0-2,5-2,4-2,4-2,4 Source: Bank of Portugal (October 2015) / International Monetary Fund (August 2015) 6

7 2. Lisbon Office Market 7

8 LISBON OFFICE MARKET Lisbon office market is divided in 6 big zones, as following: LPI is the Index used to evaluate the Lisbon office market performance. It s a Real Estate Index that monthly shows the sq m traded and the correspondent lease values (m 2 /month). Prime CBD (Zone 1) and CBD (Zone 2) represent the Prime Location in the Lisbon Office Market. 8

9 LISBON OFFICE MARKET Office Zones: ZONE 1 PRIME CBD Area: From Av. da Liberdade to the Praça Duque de Saldanha. Description: The leading zone of Lisbon. Occupiers: The main area for head offices and back offices in the banking and insurance sector plus offices of the largest law firms. ZONE 2 CBD Area: Av. da República, Av. Duque de Loulé and the Amoreiras area. Description: Central and established area of Lisbon. Occupiers: Service companies and state entities. ZONE 3 EMERGING OFFICE ZONE Area: From Campo Grande to the 2nd Circular ring road, the areas of Benfica, Praça de Espanha and Sete Rios. Description: Close to the main roads into and around Lisbon. Occupiers: Head offices and back offices for the banking sector. ZONE 4 SECONDARY OFFICE ZONE Area: From Av. Infante Santo to the Av. 24 de Julho. Description: Riverside and historic area of Lisbon. Occupiers: Small businesses in various sectors. ZONE 5 PARQUE DAS NAÇÕES Area: Parque das Nações. Description: The most recently developed area of Lisbon with excellent transport and other facilities. Occupiers: HQs of multi national companies and state services. ZONE 6 WESTERN CORRIDOR Area: Along the A5 motorway, up to Porto Salvo and Alfragide. Description: A zone on the periphery of Lisbon along the motorway to Cascais. Supply is generally in office parks. Occupiers: HQs of multi national and IT companies. N.B.: All offices located outside the main zones are included in the so-called zone 7, which corresponds geographically to all the areas of Lisbon which are not within zones 1 to 6. 9

10 LISBON OFFICE MARKET STOCK The supply of offices in the city of Lisbon has not registered meaningfully changes over the past years. During 3Q 2015 two office buildings were completed, Castilho 24 in Prime CBD (7.161 sq.m.) and EDP Building in Secondary Zone ( sq.m.). Greater Lisbon Offices - Stock Zone Q % [sq.m.] [sq.m.] [sq.m.] 13/Q Prime CBD ,9% 1,88% 2. CBD ,6% 1,58% 3. Emerging Office Zone ,6% 1,49% 4. Secondary Office Zone ,2% 1,36% 5. "Parque das Nações" ,9% 0,00% 6. Western Corridor ,9% 0,03% 7. Zone ,8% 0,17% TOTAL ,0% 0,9% Source: Aguirre Newman / LPI 10

11 LISBON OFFICE MARKET SUPPLY Until the end of 2016, it is expected to be completed 5 office buildings (new/ refurbished) and 1 building in This will lead to a new supply of approximately sq. m. Pipeline of Office Developments for 2016/2017 Development / Building Zone Area Completion [sq.m.] Date República, Paço do Saldanha Ed. Santander Lagoas Park, Edificio Marquês do Pombal 14 (AXA) Fontes Pereira de Melo TOTAL Source: Aguirre Newman / LPI 11

12 Area [sq. m] NOVEMBER 2015 LISBON OFFICE MARKET NEW OFFICES New office spaces concluded per year has been decreasing since 2010., with exception for Pipeline for reflects an increase, when compared with New Office Area concluded per year (sq. m) (f) 2016 (f) Year Source: Aguirre Newman / LPI 12

13 LISBON OFFICE MARKET DEMAND Total take up in 2014 (126,529 sq. m.), was the highest since Average Take-up of 136,400 sq.m. (1998 to 2014) Office take up in Lisbon (1998 to 2014) Q 2015 Source: Aguirre Newman / LPI 13

14 LISBON OFFICE MARKET DEMAND Take up in 2014 versus 2013, increased in all zones except for Emerging Office Zone (Zone 4), reflecting an overall increase of 63%. Number of transactions in 2014 (239) increased around 28% from Source: Aguirre Newman / LPI Office take up in Lisbon by Zone 2013/2014/Q Q Area Zone Area Area Area 13/3Q Transactions Transactions Transactions [sq.m.] [sq.m.] [sq.m.] Prime CBD % 2. CBD % 3. Emerging Office Zone % 4. Secondary Office Zone % 5. "Parque das Nações" % 6. Western Corridor % 7. Zone % TOTAL % 14

15 LISBON OFFICE MARKET DEMAND Take up in January October 2015 (119,851 sq. m) over 59% more than January to October 2014 (75,556 sq. m). Number of transactions in January to October 2015 (206) increased around 12% from January to October 2014 (184). Office Take up (sq. m) January to October 2014/2015 Source: Aguirre Newman / LPI 15

16 LISBON OFFICE MARKET VACANCY Vacancy Rate Evolution 2006 Q The availability rate in Lisbon decreased to 11,27% in S This is equivalent to about sq. m. of vacant space by the end of Q ,00% 12,00% 10,00% 8,00% 6,00% 4,00% 2,00% 0,00% Zone Q 2015 Available Area 13/3Q 15 Availability Availability Availability % % % [% /sq.m.] [sq.m.] [sq.m.] [sq.m.] 1. Prime CBD ,85% ,25% ,99% -7,00% 2. CBD ,52% ,78% ,17% -19,11% 3. Emerging Office Zone ,38% ,33% ,34% -17,33% 4. Secondary Office Zone ,44% ,99% ,94% -19,13% 5. "Parque das Nações" ,39% ,17% ,55% -51,22% 6. Western Corridor ,12% ,61% ,13% -11,41% 7. Zone % ,43% ,20% 24,25% TOTAL ,25% ,14% ,27% -14,20% 11,40% 7,39% 7,05% 9,71% 12,00% 12,43% 11,21% 13,25% 12,14% 11,27% Q3 Source: Aguirre Newman / LPI 16

17 LISBON OFFICE MARKET VACANCY New vacant office space at the end of Q (27,581 sq. m) decreased around 51% when compared with the end of 2014 (56,010 sq. m) Available Office Area (sq. m) New vs. Used ,3% ,1% ,25% Q New Used Source: Aguirre Newman / LPI 17

18 LISBON OFFICE MARKET RENTS In Q prime rents fell generally with regard to the end of 2014, except in Parque das Nações (zone 5). Regarding average rents, Emerging Office Zone and CBD were the zones that registered a decrease. The performance of rents is largely due to the current economic climate which has led tenants to press for a renegotiation of their rents Q /Q Zone Prime Rent Average Rent Prime Rent Average Rent Prime Rent Average Rent Prime Rent Average Rent 1. Prime CBD 21,00 16,10 19,00 14,74 18,50 15,21-2,6% 3,2% 2. CBD 15,00 12,08 15,00 11,78 13,50 10,47-10,0% -11,1% 3. Emerging Office Zone 14,75 11,32 14,00 12,06 11,89 11,78-15,1% -2,3% 4. Secondary Office Zone NA 9,50 NA 8,66 NA NA NA NA 5. "Parque das Nações" 15,00 12,49 14,00 12,14 16,50 14,41 17,9% 18,7% 6. Western Corridor 12,50 9,53 12,00 9,44 11,00 9,62-8,3% 1,9% Source: Aguirre Newman / LPI 18

19 EUROPEAN OFFICE MARKET London Prime Rents ( / sq.m./ year) Oslo 426 Paris Geneva Oslo Dublin Milan Frankfurt Rome Amesterdam Madrid Brussels Berlin Lisbon Barcelona Dublin 507 London Paris 708 Brussels 247 Amsterdam 330 Geneva 547 Frankfurt 432 Milan 452 Copenhagen 174 Berlin 228 Copenhagen 174 Antwerp Source: Aguirre Newman, GVA/ Bilfinger, others Lisbon 222 Madrid 324 Barcelona 196 Rome

20 3. Retail Market - Lisbon High Street 20

21 RETAIL MARKET - LISBON HIGH STREET Prime zones are the most sought after in Lisbon. Avenida da Liberdade and Rua Garrett are at the list top of international and local fashion and luxury brands preferences: Source: Aguirre Newman 21

22 RETAIL MARKET - LISBON HIGH STREET In 2015, International brands represented 36% of Lisbon Retail Market, an increase of 8% since In the last 5 years, around 40 brands stablished in Av. Liberdade Presently, 63% of luxury brands are located in Av. Liberdade 22

23 4. Retail Market Shopping Centers 23

24 GLA (sq.m.) NOVEMBER 2015 RETAIL MARKET - SHOPPING CENTERS Alegro Setúbal Shopping Center, with a GLA of 41,200 sq. m, opened in Q Dolce Vita Braga Shopping Center (42,000 sq. m) and Évora Shopping Center (16,000 sq. m), both currently held by domestic banks, are also under construction and could open in the short term Shopping Center Openings (GLA sq. m) Year Source: Aguirre Newman / APCC 24

25 RETAIL MARKET - SHOPPING CENTRES Retail Prime Rents by Segment (2012 Q1 2015) Unit /sq. M Q Lisbon High Street Retail 90,00 90,00 100,00 100,00 Shopping Centres 75,00 75,00 75,00 85,00 Retail Parks 8,00 8,00 8,25 9,00 Source: Aguirre Newman Prime rents have remained stable in high street retail, in the first quarter of 2015, due to a strong demand for prime locations. Shopping Centers and Retail Parks Prime rents increased in prime zones, following the recovery trend of the Portuguese market, namely the economic and the real estate. 25

26 5. Logistic Industrial Great Lisbon Market 26

27 INDUSTRIAL GREAT LISBON MARKET Lisbon industrial market is divided in 7 big zones, as following: 27

28 INDUSTRIAL GREAT LISBON MARKET Industrial Zones: ZONE 1 NORTH OF TAGUS RIVER SACAVÉM ALVERCA: Sacavém, Bobadela, São João da Talha, Santa Iria da Azóia, Póvoa de Santa Iria e Forte da Casa ALVERCA AZAMBUJA: Alverca do Ribatejo, Sobralinho, Alhandra, Vila Franca de Xira, Castanheira do Ribatejo, Carregado, Vila Nova da Rainha, Azambuja LOURES VIALONGA: Prior Velho, Camarate, Portela, Moscavide, Unhos, Apelação, Frielas, Santo António dos Cavaleiros, Loures, Santo Antão do Tojal, Fanhões, Lousa, Bucelas, Arruda dos Vinhos, Odivelas, Famões, Póvoa de Santo Adrião ZONE 2 SOUTH OF TAGUS RIVER MONTIJO ALCOCHETE: Montijo, Porto Alto, Samora Correia, Benavente PALMELA SETÚBAL: Almada, Seixal, Sesimbra, Barreiro, Moita, Palmela, Setúbal ZONE 3 WESTERN CORRIDOR ALFRAGIDE CARNAXIDE: Alfragide, Carnaxide, Amadora SINTRA CASCAIS E OEIRAS 28

29 LOGISTIC INDUSTRIAL GREAT LISBON MARKET In 2015, demand for industrial and distribution warehouse premises continue to be sought by companies that look for larger areas. There is also a trend for demand of used properties instead of new properties. Average warehousing rental prices in 2014 stabilized when compared to Nevertheless, as a result of the decrease in stock supply, prime rents have a tendency to be superior. 29

30 INDUSTRIAL GREAT LISBON MARKET DEMAND Take up in S versus S decreased in all zones, except in Loures Vialonga that registered an increase of 17%. Industrial take up in Great Lisbon by Zone 2014 / S Zone S S S Area Area Area Area Transactions Transactions Transactions S1 14/S1 15 [m²] [m²] [m²] 1. Sacavém - Alverca % 2. Alverca - Azambuja % 3. Loures - Vialonga % 4. Montijo - Alcochete % 5. Palmela - Setúbal Alfragide/ Carnaxide % 7. Sintra - Cascais - Oeiras % TOTAL % Source: Aguirre Newman / LPI 30

31 sq. m NOVEMBER 2015 INDUSTRIAL GREAT LISBON MARKET DEMAND Industrial take up in January to June 2015 (18,970 sq. m) over 64% less than January to June 2014 (52,837 sq. m). Number of transactions in January to June 2015 (9) decreased around 47% from January to June 2014 (17). Industrial Take up (sq. m) January to June 2014/ Q1 Q Source: Aguirre Newman / LPI 31

32 INDUSTRIAL GREAT LISBON MARKET RENTS Prime rents have remained stable in industrial market, in the first quarter of Industrial Prime Rents by Zone (2012 Q1 2015) Lisbon Q4 Q4 Q4 Q1 Zone 1 - Eixo Carregado - Azambuja 3,30 3,25 3,25 3,25 Zone 2 - Eixo Póvoa de Santa Iria - Alverca 3,75 3,50 4,00 3,50 Zone 3 - Eixo Loures MARL - Vialonga 4,00 4,00 4,00 3,50 Zone 4 - Corredor Oeste 4,25 4,00 3,50 4,00 Zone 5 - Lisboa (Matinha - Prior Velho) 5,25 5,00 4,75 4,50 Zone 6 - Eixo Montijo - Alcochete 3,50 3,00 3,00 3,00 Zone 7 - Eixo Palmela - Setúbal 3,00 3,00 3,00 3,00 Source: Aguirre Newman / LPI 32

33 6. Investment Market 33

34 INVESTMENT MARKET During 2014, the investment turnover in Portugal without the residential component was around 826 million, 38% above 2013 total investment. The investment turnover is estimated to be 1500 M, until the end of 3Q Total investment in 2005 Q (M ) Q Source: Aguirre Newman 34

35 INVESTMENT MARKET Investment Volume by Sector ( M, %) 2014 Q *Tourism sector: Tivoli Hotels Portfolio ( 242,5M), Vilamoura Resort ( 200M) 35

36 INVESTMENT MARKET Foreign investment is forecast to account for about 94% of the total amount invested until Q3 2015, as against the 4% which came from local investors. Recovery of the trend observed in 2006, as the amount of foreign investment was greater than the amount of local investment. Total investment by origin of the investor Q % 90% 13% 27% 18% 18% 18% 80% 45% 50% 43% 70% 60% 50% 85% 86% 94% 40% 87% 73% 82% 82% 82% 30% 55% 50% 57% 20% 10% 0% 15% 14% 6% Q National Foreign Source: Aguirre Newman 36

37 2. REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT MARKET U.S.A. 38% 313 M 66% Logistics 18% Offices PORTUGAL SPAIN U.K. CHINA FRANCE 17% 138 M 14% 116,6 M 8% 70 M 8% 69,9 M 6% 48,7 M 62% Soil 18% Retail 94% Shopping Centers 6% High Street Retail 100% Retail 82% Offices 14% Soil 59% Retail 20,5% Offices and 20,5% Tourism Investment in 2014: 826 M BELGIUM RUSSIA 6% 46,5 M 1,5% 12 M 100% Offices 92% Tourism BRAZIL 1,5% 11,5 M 52% Offices 31% Others 37

38 2. REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT MARKET U.S.A. THAILAND PORTUGAL LUXEMBURG SPAIN 68% 963,5 M 17% 241 M 6% 89,9 M 6% 78,8 M 1,2% 18 M 64% Retail 21% Tourism 100% Tourism 61% Offices 21% Soil 61% Offices 39% Retail 100% Offices Investment in 3Q 2015: 1500 M 38

39 INVESTMENT MARKET Market Yields by Segment (2012 Q1 2015) Unit % Q Offices (Gross) 7,75 7,25 6,00 6,00 Shopping Centres (Net) 8,00 8,00 6,25 6,50 Retail Parks (Net) 10,00 10,00 9,00 9,00 High Street (Gross) 7,25 6,75 5,75 5,50 Industrial & Logistic (Gross) 10,00 9,75 8,00 7,75 Source: Aguirre Newman Offices: given the current economic situation, yields are expected to decrease in Portugal - namely in prime assets. Industrial: taking into account the improvement in the financial crisis and liquidity in the national and international markets, yields are expected to decrease. Investors are not investing in assets with capitalisation rates below 7.75%. 39

40 6. Outlook

41 OUTLOOK FOR 2015 Vacancy Rate Rents OFFICES Yields Vacancy Rate Rents Yields Vacancy Rate RETAIL Rents Yields INDUSTRIAL 41

42 L I S B O A Praça Marquês de Pombal, 16-7.º Lisboa T F aguirrenewman.com PAULO SILVA paulo.silva@aguirrenewman.pt PAULA SEQUEIRA paula.sequeira@aguirrenewman.pt 42