Northwest Minnesota Labor Market Trends

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1 Northwest Minnesota Labor Market Trends Pathways 2 Postsecondary Summit October 9, 2014 Chet Bodin Regional Labor Market Information Analyst Minnesota Dept. of Employment & Economic Development Labor Market Information Office

2 Labor Market Information Office Supports state workforce and economic development systems - Advises policy makers on current and future economic trends Helps employers make informed business decisions, and Assists individuals in making strong career choices DEED s Regional Analysts are the state's experts on the latest labor market intelligence, economic conditions, and workforce trends We ve got you covered!

3 Labor Market Information Office Industry Employment Statistics & Trends Occupations in Demand (OID) Regional Wage & Salary Information Employment Outlook Projections Unemployment Rates Graduate Employment Outcomes Unemployment Insurance Claims Career Exploration Information Hiring Difficulties in Minnesota Job Vacancy Survey data Skills Gap Surveys Affirmative Action Statistics Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data DEED s Regional Data Tool U.S. Census data Job Skills Transfer Assessment Tool (JobSTAT) Economic Trends & Employment Review

4 Population Change Northwest Minnesota is home to 745,342 people 14.0% of state s population (5,420,380 people) Population grew 26,535 people (+3.7%) from % of population is 65 years & over

5 Population Trends: Rural NW MN

6 Population Population Trends: Rural NW MN 70,000 60,000 Cohort Population Expected Actual 63,316 64,087 50,000 40,000 47,545 46,979 42,978 45,995 30,000 20,000 29,735 23,280 10, to to to to 54

7 Employment Change Employment is growing Minnesota gained another 6,100 jobs in August Minnesota has 56,311 more jobs compared to last August Minnesota has regained the 159,000 jobs lost during the Great Recession, plus 43,900 more! Northeast Minnesota grew 2.1% from 2010 to 2013 Other (mainly) positive signs: Hiring activity has surpassed pre-recession levels Average work-weeks are near record highs Relatively low unemployment rates across the state Labor force participation rates are recovering Educational attainment rates are rising

8 Unemployment Rates Northwest Minnesota s unemployment rate fell to 3.8% in August of 2014 Down from 4.4% in July 2014 Down from 6.2% in August 2011 Local Unemployment Statistics for August 2014 Area Labor Force Employed Workers UE Workers UE Rate Northwest (EDR 1) 49,905 48,078 1, % Headwaters (EDR 2) 40,922 38,779 2, % West Central (EDR 4) 130, ,420 3,919 3% North Central (EDR 5) 84,360 80,596 3, % Northwest Region 305, ,873 11, % State of Minnesota 3,001,186 2,887, , % Source: DEED Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program

9 Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rates 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% Minnesota 6.0% 5.0% Northwest Minnesota 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%

10 Unemployment: County Comparisons

11 Industry Trends Northeast Minnesota is home to 16,872 business establishments providing 213,620 jobs Northwest Region Job Change Public Administration Other Services Leisure and Hospitality Education and Health Services Professional and Business Services Financial Activities Trade, Transportation and Utilities Manufacturing Construction Natural Resources and Mining Total, All Industries -1.8% -1.3% -0.6% -1.9% 0.1% 3.6% 2.8% 2.9% 10.5% 17.1% 23.6% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

12 Northwest Minnesota Industry Employment Statistics, Number of Number of Percent of Avg. Weekly NAICS Industry Title Trends Firms Jobs Jobs Wages Job Change Total, All Industries 16, , % $ % Accommodation and Food Services 1,514 19, % $ % Administrative and Waste Mgmt Services 655 5, % $ % Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 705 4, % $ % Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 363 4, % $ % Construction 2,104 10, % $ % Educational Services , % $ % Finance and Insurance 895 5, % $ % Health Care and Social Assistance 1,465 36, % $ % Information 253 2, % $763 n/a Mgmt of Companies and Enterprises % $1, % Manufacturing , % $ % Mining % $ % Other Services 1,432 6, % $ % Professional, Scientific, and Tech Services 840 4, % $ % Public Administration , % $ % Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 424 1, % $ % Retail Trade 2,414 27, % $ % Transportation and Warehousing 892 6, % $ % Utilities 67 1, % $1, % Wholesale Trade , % $ % Source: DEED QCEW program

13 Northwest Occupations in Demand 189 occupations in relatively high demand 26 are healthcare practitioners 32 are production occupations Less than high school 12.7% 14.8% 8.5% 15.9% 43.4% High school diploma or equivalent Some College, no degree Associate's Degree or Certificate Bachelor's Degree 1.1% Advanced Degree

14 Northwest MN Occupations in Demand Some College and High School or Equivalent Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers Office Clerks, General Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance Medical Assistants Pharmacy Technicians Post-Secondary Award and Associate's Degree Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technicians First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Radiologic Technologists Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics Bachelor's Degree Medical and Health Services Managers Human Resources Specialists Financial Managers Network and Computer Systems Administrators Training and Development Specialists Computer Systems Analysts

15 Forecasting future job trends Minnesota s economy will grow by 7%, or 204,999 new jobs, between 2012 and MN gained 358,732 jobs between MN gained 549,000 jobs between MN lost 43,706 jobs between %, or 36,235 new jobs within the Northwest region. Over 673,000 new workers will be needed to take jobs left vacant through retirements and replacements. 59,430 replacement workers will be need in the NW region

16 Industry projections, Education and Health Services Professional and Business Services Construction Trade, Transportation and Utilities Leisure and Hospitality Financial Activities Other Services Natural Resources and Mining Public Administration Manufacturing Information -1,044-4,077-4,126 38,035 23,685 16,294 14,561 12,784 4,998 1,155 98,944-20, ,000 40,000 60,000 80, ,000120,000

17 Occupational projections, Office and Administrative Support Sales and Related Food Preparation and Serving Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Personal Care and Service Management Production Transportation and Material Moving Business and Financial Operations Education, Training, and Library Healthcare Support Construction and Extraction Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Building and Grounds Cleaning Computer and Mathematical Community and Social Service Protective Service Architecture and Engineering Arts, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Life, Physical, and Social Science Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Legal Occupations New Hires Replacement Hires -20, ,000 40,000 60,000 80, , ,000

18 Skills Gaps? Or Hiring Difficulties? Hiring difficulties caused by a mismatch between job requirements and the training, skills, and experience of applicants (skills mismatches) Hiring difficulties caused by problems that are unrelated to candidates qualifications, such as unattractive work hours, wages, geographic location, and others (demand-side factors)

19 Difficult to fill stems from Supply-side factors: Hiring difficulties caused by a mismatch between job requirements and the training, skills, and experience of applicants. Demand-side factors: Hiring difficulties caused by problems that are unrelated to candidates qualifications, such as unattractive work hours, inadequate compensation, geographic location of position, and ineffective recruiting.

20 Share of vacancies reported as difficult to fill by occupation group

21 Factors perceived by employers as contributing to hiring difficulties

22 Factors contributing to hiring difficulties, by education level

23 Graduate Employment Outcomes Prospective students, to set realistic expectations for employment and wages following graduation Parents and career counselors, to help prospective students plan their education Education program planners interested in aligning program offerings to market demand Policy makers interested in evaluating the state s returns on investments in higher education

24 Graduate Employment Outcomes Choice of major (with a focus on career paths and labor market trends) is the main driver of economic success after graduation. Why? There are more opportunities in MN for people with degrees that are technical (focused on analytical/quantitative skills) or geared towards growing sectors (HC & Social Assistance, Education) This is true at every award level!

25 Major Matters

26 Graduate Employment Outcomes Findings show that two-thirds of graduates were employed in Minnesota a year after graduation Overall, only 42% of 2011 completers who were employed managed to find a full-time job and keep it for the whole year Healthcare & Social Assistance was the dominant employer, employing one fourth (24%) of new graduates with jobs

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