Kompetenztreffen Elektromobilität NRW Elektromobilität gestalten, lernen, machen mit Mut, Kreativität und Know-How
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1 Kompetenztreffen Elektromobilität NRW Elektromobilität gestalten, lernen, machen mit Mut, Kreativität und Know-How Frank Ramowsky Vice President ITS, e-mobility TÜV Rheinland
2 TÜV Rheinland - wherever you are, we are with you Headquarters: Cologne, Germany 2
3 Our Services More safety and quality for your competitive edge. Testing Inspecting Certifying Qualifying Consulting Products Systems Processes People 3
4 Future Mobility Solutions History of Electric Vehicles Elektromote von Werner Siemens, Berlin Beragmann Paketzustell- Wagen Apollo 17-Mission General Motors EV1 Ford Focus Electric Phase I Phase II Phase III Allrad- Rennwagen von Lohner-Porsche Hansa-Lloyd Elektro- Lastwagen CL5 Golf III - Citystromer Toyota F-Cell Mirai 4
5 Future Mobility Solutions Evolution of Automotive 4.0 Since Henry Ford introduced mass production, the automotive industry developed in an evolutionary way into how we know today With new technology, new players and new consumer needs, we might be on the verge of a revolution! Automotive 4.0 The convergence of connected, shared, automated vehicles will result in a new reality that is more about how people are moved than what moves them Quelle: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 5
6 Future Mobility Solutions A C E S utonomous onnected lectrified hared Kompetenztreffen Elektromobilität NRW
7 Market Drivers for ITS and E-Mobility Situation Three Main Drivers for Future Mobility: Highest Congestion Cities in Asia 2014 Road Fatalities 2013 USA: 32,885 Mexico: 17,301 Europe: 19,595 Brazil: 36,499 India: 130,037 Russia: 26,567 Japan: China: 70,134 Smart Traffic Source: WHO 7
8 Market Drivers for Changing Future Mobility Concepts Three Main Drivers for Future Mobility: Dead People due to Smog 2012 according to WHO Smart Traffic and E-Mobility 8
9 Influential Factors on the Industrial Development Law Competition Resources Customers Demand ITS / e-mobility Markets Technology Environment Infrastructure 9
10 Laws: Demanding Obligatory Targets CO 2 limits for passenger cars in grams per kilometer, based on European driving cycle 2020: 121g CO 2 /km 2025: 91g CO 2 /km 2015: 130g CO 2 /km 2020: 95g CO 2 /km 2015: 160 CO 2 /km 2020: 117 CO 2 /km 2015: 125 CO 2 /km 2020: 105 CO 2 /km Source: ICCT 10
11 European Power-Train Analysis - The Potential CO 2 emissions gco 2 / km ICE gasoline 1 ICE diesel C/D SEGMENT BEV FCEV PHEV Low emissions and high range ICE range for 2050 based on fuel economy improvement and assuming tank size stays constant. Assuming 6% CO2 reduction due to biofuels by 2020; 24% by ICE range for 2050 based on fuel economy improvement and assuming tank size stays constant. Assuming 6% CO2 reduction due to biofuels by 2020; 24% by SOURCE: Study analysis Range km CO Source: EESI
12 Future Power Trains Tailored solutions on the market Long Distance Interurban City Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) Hybrid Plug-In/Range Extender (PHEV) Battery Electric (BEV) Fuel Cell (FCEV) Source: VDA 12
13 Future Power Trains The Power of Choice Conventional/ICE CNG, LPG Hybrid - Micro - Mild - Full - PHEV BEV Fuel Cell (FCEV) Source: Ford Kompetenztreffen Elektromobilität NRW
14 Global Patent Application of Alternative Drives Patent Application of the top 20 OEM in 2006 and ,200 6,000 2,600 2,700 3,800 2,600 2,300 3, Conventional Hybrid Electric Fuel Cell Source: Center of Automotive Management (CAM) 14
15 E-Mobility World Market Ranking based on indicators Source: IZSW. Roland Berger Q
16 New Vehicles Registrations Targets 2020 and beyond Selection of national electric vehicle sales goals for Source: ICCT 16
17 Production Location of Electrified Vehicles Source: IZSW. Roland Berger Q
18 Survey of Global Initiatives to Steer the Markets Americas Europe Asia United States Offers up to $7,500 for qualified vehicles (Chevrolet Volt, Nissan Leaf, Coda sedan, Tesla Roadster). $2.8 billion overall budget allocated. Canada Plans to have 1 in 20 vehicles driven in Ontario to be electrically powered by Quebec offers up to $8,000. Mexico Mexico City signed an agreement with Nissan to deliver recharging infrastructure for EVs in Brazil Plans to develop electric vehicles and build solar-powered charging stations in near future. United Kingdom Offers 5,000 max or 25% of retail. Plans to have more than 1,000 electric vehicles for its fleet and 25,000 charging points by 2015 to support running of a target 100,000 electric vehicles. France Offers 5000 or 20% of retail, valid up to Offers up to 1,000 charging stations. 400 million budget allocated for incentives, technology, and infrastructure. Germany 1.5 billion budget allocated for EV incentives, technology, and infrastructure. One million electric vehicles on the road by China Offers up to USD $8,800 in subsidies. Plans to invest USD $15 billion to help domestic automakers put 20 million fuel-efficient vehicles on China s roads by India Offers $2,200 or 20% of retail for electric vehicles subsidies for electric 2-wheelers, plus other smaller which is majority of the market. Japan Enforces periodic vehicle inspection, testing, and taxation based on engine size to drive adoption. The government is targeting a number of 3 million EVs by Sources: Frost & Sullivan, J.D. Power Associates 18
19 Survey of Global Initiatives to Steer the Markets Revenue in automotive industry 2013* GB Denmark 39 Mrd. 4,6% 1 Mrd. 10,7% South Korea Ireland Germany 139 Mrd. 1,2% 1 Mrd. 14% 342 Mrd. 0,4% USA 482 Mrd. 5,0% Portugal 2 Mrd. 4,1% Italy 37 Mrd. 1,3% Japan 348 Mrd. 0,3% State funding of E-cars in relation to total revenue Spain 45 Mrd. 1,6% France 64 Mrd. 3,9% China 743 Mrd. 0,3% Quelle: Der Tagesspiegel, McKinsey * Including spare parts 19
20 New Vehicles Registrations since 2010 Annual global EV sales Regions where Ev s were sold Source: ICCT 20
21 Market Share of electrical Vehicles Market share of electric passenger cars in 2012 and 2013 compared to total sales Source: ICCT 21
22 Market Effect on Sales Global Government Promotion for the Purchase Price of EV s (Selection) Example: Basic Price in Germany Up: from e-up: from Norway Denmark Sweden France Great Britain Netherlands Austria Germany Price Difference (in Euro) between Volkswagen e-up and Up with a petrol engine after consideration of governmental promotion Source: ICCT 22
23 New Vehicles Registrations peview Zero-emission vehicle deployment goals Source: ICCT 23
24 Future Mobility Solutions Together we design Future Mobility Solutions Let s make the future of mobility electric Our claim: Future Mobility Solutions needs to be as safe, reliable and attractive as conventional mobility 24
25 Thank you for your attention Kompetenztreffen Elektromobilität NRW Elektromobilität gestalten, lernen, machen mit Mut, Kreativität und Know-How Frank Ramowsky Vice President ITS, e-mobility TÜV Rheinland
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