Deutsche Bank. China Capabilities Deutsche Bank
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1 Deutsche Bank China Capabilities Deutsche Bank
2 Deutsche Bank in the Netherlands A renowned trading nation deserves a solid international partner Deutsche Bank Page 1
3 21/05/ eLD0998_DB Screenshow.pptx Deutsche Bank Global presence in 74 countries Revenues Employees Tokyo Deutsche Bank Page 2
4 Deutsche Bank NL a local partner in 16 cities Active in the Netherlands since Grew from a trading house to a leading investment bank. With professionals in 16 cities Deutsche Bank offers an extensive national and international network with local convenience. Deutsche Bank service SME, Mid Cap, Large Cap and DGA s in the Netherlands. Deutsche Bank is one of the few banks in Europe who manages the crisis without government support Deutsche Bank Page 3
5 Deutsche Bank Developments in China
6 Deutsche Bank in China DB offices in Shanghai (1890) Deutsche Bank in China (2012/13) What s going on in China Growth is exceptional, gradually slowing World largest economy in next decade No.1 trading nation already in 2012 Further deregulation 7% of China s trade is settled in CNY* Cross-border volume increased from CNY 3.5bn (Jul-Dec 09) to CNY 506.3bn ( 10) RMB will become one of the top 5-most trade currencies in the world, decrease in USD volumes Presence since 1872 ( employees) Locally Incorporated since January 2008 Offering all DB services (except leasing, credit cards) Direct access to all clearing systems Leading Trade Finance Bank in China No.1 in EUR clearing, No.2 for USD 25% RMB flow via Deutsche Bank Deutsche Bank * CNY Cross border RMB payments/ account statements Beijing headquarter Page 5
7 China the largest economy by 2022? Chinese GDP growth ( ) China s global trade volumes (in USD) China cross-border trade settlement volume (RMB bn) Deutsche Bank predicts that China will surpass the United States as the world s largest economy by 2022 Source: Deutsche Bank Research Source: HKMA, Deutsche Bank Deutsche Bank Page 6
8 Stages of the internationalization of RMB ? 2015? 2020? Fully restricted currency RMB cross-border trade settlement pilot program RMB Settlement for capital account transactions Fully convertible currency Reserve currency - Defining feature of China s economy for the last 30 years - Beneficial (30 yr export boom) and disadvantageous (global structural imbalances) - Share of RMB in global currency turnover of 0.1% in Development of the CNH market in Hong Kong - PBOC initiates pilot trade program in July Select companies allowed to settle trade in RMB outside mainland (through HK) Will require 2 key steps: 1) Exchange rate that is closer to fair value 2) Market-set interest rates - DB expects basic convertibility of the RMB by Significant RMB appreciation (i.e. 30%) & 20-40x increase in RMB FX trading - Will challenge the US$ & help unwind a range of global structural imbalances - As an ascendant economic power, the RMB will become a global reserve currency (longer term development) - Timing will depend on how influential the RMB becomes and how quickly it becomes fully convertible Deutsche Bank Page 7
9 Deutsche Bank Solutions & Benefits
10 % of export invoiced in exporter home currency Deutsche Bank ultimately expects 40% of Chinese trade to be priced in RMB, in-line with the volume of Japan s exports denominated in Yen. Sources: Deutsche Bank Research, HKMA Deutsche Bank Page 9
11 Opportunities of the CNH CNH Importance to importing corporates Purchase goods from China in RMB Buying goods in RMB may result in: A broader supplier base (preference for Chinese exporters to invoice in RMB) More favorable and transparent pricing of goods Minimized FX risk by funding purchases with RMB funding Reduced supply chain costs Deutsche Bank Page 10
12 Opportunities of the CNH CNH Importance to exporting corporates Invoice goods and receive payments in RMB, and freely moved between the parent company and the onshore subsidiary via a RMB account. Invoicing goods in RMB may result in: Growth in your onshore client base (prefe-rence for Chinese importers to pay in RMB) Ability to minimize FX exposures related to any RMB costs incurred in the sales process Lower transaction costs associated with foreign FX conversion and regulatory approvals for funding onshore subsidiaries Reduced supply chain costs by recycling RMB received from sales to fund onshore operations Deutsche Bank Page 11
13 Deutsche Bank Questions
14 Disclaimer Copyright 2012 Deutsche Bank Group This document has been prepared by Deutsche Bank Group ( DB ) for information purposes only. Although the information contained herein is based on sources that DB believes reliable, DB does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, with respect to the fairness, correctness, accuracy, reasonableness or completeness of the information and opinion herein. DB is not responsible for any losses or damages incurred by your relying on such information and opinion. The analyses or opinions contained herein may be based on assumptions that if altered can change the analyses or opinion expressed. Nothing contained herein shall constitute any representation or warranty as to future performance of any financial product, credit, currency rate, interest rate or any other market or economic measure. Furthermore, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. DB has no obligations to update, modify or amend this document or to notify a reader in the event that any matter stated herein changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. DB is not acting as your adviser, agent or fiduciary. When you analyze risks and issues on investment, finance, tax, law and/or accounting contained herein, you should take steps to ensure that you understand the transaction and have made an independent assessment of the appropriateness of the transaction and it is strongly recommended to seek advice from your own experts and/or advisors, in light of your own objectives and circumstances. This document shall not be construed as and does not form part of an offer, nor an invitation to offer, nor a solicitation or recommendation to enter into any transaction with DB or any of its affiliates, nor is it an official or unofficial confirmation of terms. This document and any information contained herein are confidential and may not be reproduced or distributed in whole or in part without our prior written consent. Deutsche Bank Page 13
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