TRANSBOUNDARY AIR POLLUTION: AN APPLICATION OF INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELLING. Helen ApSimon

Transcription

1 TRANSBOUNDARY AIR POLLUTION: AN APPLICATION OF INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELLING Helen ApSimon

2 1. Motivation and development of IAM at the European scale to set national ceilings for pollutant emissions 2. Analysis at the national level with UKIAM 3. Ammonia and reactive nitrogen 4. Where we are now and uncertainties

3 Acidity of rain (ph) ph of rain slide EMEP data (1993) lemon beer clean pure sea battery juice vinegar rain water water

4 Damaged forests; also lakes and fish

5 First taken up by OECD: then UNECE -> Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) 1 st protocol uniform reduction 30% in SO2 More effort needed but expensive. Also some areas of Europe more sensitive than others; and some countries contribute more than others to deposition on those sensitive areas. -> integrated assessment, RAINS, ASAM and CASM

6 Projected emissions Atmospheric transport: EMEP model Select cost - effective reductions Environ.Criteria Critical Loads Abatement options/costs Exceedance/ damage functns. INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELLING RAINS model (IIASA),ASAM model (Imperial ),CASM(SEI)

7 CRITICAL LOADS Maximum longterm annual deposition without causing adverse effects (according to current knowledge) Compiled for ecosystem areas in each country

8 ATMOSPHERIC MODELLING ( EMEP) BLAME MATRICES UK-> NORWAY ,500 tons S , , , , ,800 interannual variation NORWAY-> UK tons of S Source-receptor matrices calculated with original EMEP model (Lagrangian); now much more advanced (Eulerian) model

9 cumulative. cost Emission projections (CORINAIR) Abatement measures and costs Emissions abated COST CURVES Provide an objective focus in assessing and ranking cost-effective abatement options

10 % ecosystems unprotected 30 uniform reduction prioritised strategy from IAMs % 40% 50% 60% MTFR Total cost (billion DM/yr)

11 Eutrophication: excess nitrogen Ammonia as well as NOx (greater uncertainties) most prevalent alkaline gas in atmosphere effects on ecosystems Pictures courtesy Sally Power Heather Beetle

12 Effects of ozone crops, forests, human health NB a secondary pollutant from NOx+VOCs+chem Illustration of damage from Sivitos:tobacco leaf from M Sc project involving biomonitoring in Greece, 2003

13 Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP), UN ECE SOURCES EMISSION EXPOSURE EFFECTS/RECEPTORS Energy Agriculture Industry Traffic Sulphur dioxide Ammonia Nitrogen oxides VOCs Sulphur deposition Nitrogen deposition SO2,SO4 air concns NO2,NO3 air concns Ozone Acidification Eutrophication Human health Materials Yield losses Surface waters Terrestial ecosystems Marine ecosystems Crops Forests PM

14 VOC PM Ozone O3

15 GOTHENBURG PROTOCOL (1999) Emission reductions for Europe (Million tonnes) Estimated improvement Acidification: area >CL from 93Mha(1990) to 15Mha (2010) Eutrophication: area>cl from 163Mha(1990) to 108Mha Ozone: 1)days above 60ppb standard for health halved 2) exceedance CL for vegetation reduced by 44% 10 0 SO2 NOx VOC NH3 UK ceilings (kt) SO2 585 NOx 1167 VOCs 1200 NH3 297

16 Gothenburg protocol -> same approach for EU National Emission Ceilings Directive, NECD. -> under review (CAFE programme) NECs being revised to include fine particulates and primary PM (estimated average life shortening ~ 3 to 9 months in EU25) NB links to climate change -> combined treatment by EC-> associated emissions GHGs and black C in PM etc (deposition in Arctic as well as rad. forcing) RAINS-> GAINS (synergies AQ & GHG control)

17 Other developments at national level: -> NIAM network under UN ECE In UK -> UKIAM model after Gothenburg Aims: to follow in parallel developments and applications of GAINS by IIASA; check scenarios for 2010 and look forward to 2020 a) re feasibility of scenarios from RAINS/GAINS use more detailed info/modelling for UK b) Independent UK scenarios for future abatement linked to UK projections and emissions NB Most countries in NIAM have downscaled GAINS, whereas UKIAM is an independent model with different structure and capabilities e.g. includes urban modelling re AQ directive ceilings

18 UK Integrated Assessment Model ( UKIAM) UK SOURCES Projected UK emissions: AEA (NAEI) +DECC, DfT etc Mitigation measures and costs ENTEC NARSES SHIPPING AEA/ENTEC ATMOSPHERIC MODELLING: FRAME(CEH) PPM(Imperial) BRUTAL (Imperial) Imported: EMEP + ASAM tool Global: Met Office ENVIRONMENTAL CRITERIA: Ecosystems: CEH Human health & Urban air quality GHG emissions Integrated analysis of either specified scenarios, or optimised selection of measures converging to achieve environmental criteria at least cost

19 Forecast future deposition: acidification units keq/ha baseline scenario 2020 (UEP32+BAUIII)

20 Projected exceedance of critical loads in 2020 (UEP32) NB very different picture from GAINS; spatial resolution and atmospheric modellling e.g. orographic enhancement not reflected in EMEP model

21 PRIMARY PM CONCENTRATIONS (PPM model) Small contributions imported and from shipping PM 2.5 in 2010 Sources (kt) UEP32 scenario Power 3.0 Domestic 9.9 Industry 24.6 Roads 20.1 Off-road 7.4 Agri/nat. 6.7 Total UK 71.7

22 UK POPULATION EXPOSURE; popn. weighted mean concentrations Source Apportionment Scenario UEP32 PM10 (2010) PM10 (2020) NO2 (2020)

23 Urban modelling; the BRUTAL sub-model of UKIAM 2010 NOx 150 µg/m Builds up road transport emissions road by road across UK network; traffic flow and mix + speed dependent EFs (NAEI) Superimposes on 1x 1 km gridded concentrations other sources and minor roads -> lengths of road that may be at risk of exceeding limit values PM10, NO2 NOx 68 µg/m3 Recently revised treatment of primary NO2

24 Model comparison with measurements.

25 Some transport scenarios; co-benefits AQ and GHGs

26 Ammonia NH3 Originates mainly from agriculture Contributes to acidification, eutrophication through N deposition Also important in secondary PM-> can limit NH4NO3 and hence nitrate aerosol

27 UK emissions NH3 (in 2020) Dairy 75 kt Poultry 52 Beef 51 Sheep etc 36 Pigs 30 Fertiliser 33 Other 22 TOTAL 300 Abatement measures feeding, housing, storage (covers), low emission land spreading, fertiliser substitution for urea. Some regulation already for pigs and poultry on larger farms under IPPC

28 A lot of NH3 is short-range and redeposited close to the source, unlike NOx. Protection of ecosystem areas is sensitive to spatial patterns of NH3 emissions and their control.

29 Measures more variable in efficiency and restricted in applicability Need to consider possible side effects on N2O emissions and nitrate leaching But can be low cost, especially if savings in fertiliser N taken into account

30 UKIAM applied to wide range of scenarios: Different DECC energy scenarios/ power station studies Different transport scenarios e.g. electric cars, effect of increasing primary NO2, future Euro V/VI emissions NOx from HGVs Agricultural scenarios with and without abatement measures, effect of different dietary trends Changes in emissions outside the UK e.g. Shipping Focus now on combined scenarios + abatement options

31 Other sources not included in national ceilings: shipping; sources outside European map area (HTAP) MARPOL agreement will result in >20% reduction in S deposition over the UK in NOx from shipping also very important Figures courtesy of CEH using the FRAME model

32 Current situation (1) Development of proposed ceilings for 2020 prolonged Links to CC and energy projections +agricultural -> dual scenarios National projections, and PRIMES +CAPRI modelled European scenarios NB restricted to technical measures but behavioural change (including energy efficiency and dietary trends relevant too)

33 SO2 Germany Italy Nlands Poland Spain UK NO x Germany Italy Nlands Poland Spain UK PRIMES BL PRIMES MFR NAT BL NAT MFR PRIMES BL PRIMES MFR NAT BL NAT MFR Future emissions SO2 and NOx Similar emissions both national & PRIMES many countries. BUT further reductions (baseline MTFR) smaller in comparison to totals In some cases small or no overlap between range of emissions between scenarios.

34 Current situation (2) Extension of EC, but UNECE covers Russia and eastern states Revision of data and review of uncertainties in progress Discussions on target setting New GAINS scenarios March 2011, further development By end of 2010

35 Future activities energy/agriculture Problem boundaries; space,time, external factors Projected emissions AQ & GHGs Abatement options & costs Costs and benefits of different abatement scenarios Atmospheric transport/ deposition Environment: criteria protn/ targets Proposed EMISSION CEILINGS robust????