Continued softening in regional house price growth

Transcription

1 Q Continued softening in regional house price growth Annual house price growth slowed in 11 out of 13 regions London annual price growth softens from 12.7% to 7.3% Scotland weakest performing region, with prices down 1% compared with Q UK Fact File Average UK House Price 194,258 Annual percentage 4.1% Quarterly * 1.0% Most expensive region London Least expensive region North Strongest annual price N Ireland Weakest annual price Scotland (Note that quarterly % s are revised when seasonal adjustment factors are re-estimated) Please note that these figures are for the three months to June, therefore will show a different UK average price and annual percentage to our monthly house price report. Forthcoming s to methodology Please note that from next month onwards we will be using a revised methodology to calculate the house price index. Further details on these s can be found here. We will continue to publish regional house price data each quarter, but some of the sub-indices will no longer be produced. Text in blue indicates hyperlink Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said: Most regions saw a further slowing in annual house price growth in Q Across the UK as a whole, prices rose by 1.0% over the quarter, after allowing for seasonal effects. Prices were up 4.1% compared with Q Northern Ireland overtook London to become the strongest performing region, with average prices up 8.0% year-on-year. Prices remain around 45% below their 2007 peak however. London was the top performing English region, but saw a further softening in annual price growth to 7.3%, compared with 12.7% in Q1. The Outer Metropolitan area followed closely behind, with annual price growth of 6.8%. The North was the weakest performing English region, with prices essentially und compared with the same period a year ago. Wales saw a 0.8% year-on-year fall in average prices, similar to last quarter. Scotland was weakest performing region with a 1.0% fall in prices. Regions over the last 12 months Region Average Price (Q2 2015) Annual % this quarter Annual % last quarter N Ireland 126, % 5.7% London 429, % 12.7% Outer Met 315, % 12.0% Outer SE 244, % 8.4% East Anglia 198, % 7.8% E Midlands 160, % 5.9% South West 215, % 5.7% W Midlands 165, % 4.7% Yorks & H side 147, % 1.3% North West 146, % 2.0% North 125, % 4.7% Wales 144, % -0.5% Scotland 140, % 1.3% UK 194, % 5.9% 1

2 Scotland Average house price 140,512 Annual percentage -1.0% Quarterly * -1.4% Most expensive area Aberdeen City Least expensive area Southern Scotland Strongest annual price Edinburgh City Weakest annual price Renfrewshire & Inverclyde Scotland was the weakest performing region in Q2 2015, with prices down 1% compared with Q Edinburgh continued to be the best performing area, with prices up 6% on the previous year. Renfrewshire & Inverclyde saw the weakest growth, with prices down 8%. Wales Average house price 144,701 Annual percentage -0.8% Quarterly * 1.0% Most expensive area Cardiff Least expensive area Mid & West Wales Strongest annual price Cardiff Weakest annual price Mid & West Wales Average prices in Wales were down 0.8% year-on-year in Q2, despite a 1.0% rise in the quarter. Cardiff was the best performing area with prices up 3% year-on-year, and also remains the most expensive area in the principality. Click here for Scotland s sub-regional data Click here for Wales sub-regional data 2

3 Northern Ireland Average house price 126,525 Annual percentage 8.0% Quarterly * 3.0% Most expensive area City of Belfast Least expensive area Northern Ireland (West) Strongest annual price Northern Ireland (West) Weakest annual price City of Belfast Northern Ireland was the top performing region in the second quarter, in terms of both quarterly and annual house price growth. However, despite an 8% annual rise, prices are still around 45% below their 2007 peak. Northern Ireland (West), which includes Coleraine and Derry/Londonderry, was the strongest performing area with an 11% increase. London Average house price 429,711 Annual percentage 7.3% Quarterly * 2.3% Most expensive area Westminster Least expensive area Barking and Strongest annual price Weakest annual price Dagenham Barking and Dagenham Tower Hamlets Annual house price growth in London slowed from 12.7% to 7.3%, although the capital continued to outperform the rest of England. At 429,711, average prices are now 39% above their 2007 peak. Amongst London s boroughs, Barking and Dagenham saw the strongest growth, with prices up 19% year-onyear, while Tower Hamlets saw the weakest growth with a 3% fall. Click here for Northern Ireland s sub region data Click here for London borough data 3

4 England Average house price 235,606 Annual percentage 5.3% Quarterly * 1.4% Most expensive region London Least expensive region North Strongest annual price London Weakest annual price North Average house prices in England increased by 1.4% in Q2, and were up 5.3% year-on-year. All English regions, except Yorkshire and Humberside, saw a slowing in their annual rate of price growth. London was the top performing region, with a 7.3% year-on-year increase, closely followed by Outer Metropolitan at 6.8%. Price growth in the South exceeded that in the North for the 25 th consecutive quarter. Prices in Southern England (South West, Outer South East, Outer Metropolitan, London and East Anglia) were up 6.3% year-on-year, whilst in Northern England (West Midlands, East Midlands, Yorkshire & Humberside, North West and North) prices rose by 2.7%. In cash terms, the gap in average prices between the South and the North is at a record high, at nearly 145,000, with average prices in the South nearly twice as high at those in the North. 4

5 Major Towns and Cities Best performing regional towns / cities Rank Town / City Sub Regional Analysis Just as the national data disguises differences in house prices throughout the UK, looking at the regions disguises movements in local house prices. To look at these developments more closely the areas can be divided into sub-regions. Forthcoming s to methodology Please note that the methodology for the calculation of the figures in this section is currently under review. In light of s in data availability, it may be necessary to revise or suspend the data we produce at a sub-regional level. Scotland Aberdeen City 275,525 74% 10% 3% Aberdeenshire & Moray 187,227 62% 7% -4% Dunbartonshire & North Lanarkshire 158,074 14% 1% 5% Dundee & Angus 156,131 29% 5% 2% Edinburgh City 270,698 20% 11% 6% Fife 145,062 15% 0% 6% Glasgow City 171,658 11% 6% 0% Highlands & Islands 155,458 18% -2% -2% Lothian & Falkirk 169,909 19% 7% 3% Perthshire & Stirling 168,414 24% 5% 0% Renfrewshire & Inverclyde 160,973 11% 1% -8% South Lanarkshire 142,327 9% 7% 5% Southern Scotland 139,635 9% 6% 0% Yorkshire & Humberside Annual % Average Price Worst performing regional towns / cities Rank Town / City Annual % Bradford 169,066 3% 0% 3% East Yorkshire 157,752 6% 5% 3% Leeds 206,240 6% 6% 2% North Lincolnshire 141,396 9% 1% 6% North Yorkshire 208,393 7% 4% 3% Sheffield 194,830 15% 5% 7% South Yorkshire 147,720 1% 0% 2% West Yorkshire 162,635 4% -2% 0% York 245,814 23% 7% 4% Average Price 1 Reading 13% 335,097 1 Sunderland -4% 150,552 2 Oxford 12% 414,301 2 Belfast -3% 171,847 3 Coventry 10% 190,253 3 Nottingham -2% 160,446 4 Brighton 10% 406,479 4 Plymouth 0% 186,774 5 Bristol 10% 289,253 5 Glasgow 0% 171,658 5

6 Northern Ireland City of Belfast 171,847 0% 10% -3% Northern Ireland (North East) 131,562 4% 6% 6% Northern Ireland (South East) 152,433 7% 7% 4% Northern Ireland (West) 122,334-2% 12% 11% Wales Cardiff 228,949 16% 3% 3% Mid & West Wales 151,471 0% 4% -2% North Wales 166,431 1% 0% 0% South Wales (East) 167,405 4% 2% 0% South Wales (West) 167,422 14% 5% 0% South West Bath 282,173 24% 3% 3% Bournemouth 280,036 18% 11% 5% Bristol 289,253 44% 11% 10% Cheltenham 275,452 25% 4% 5% Cornwall and Isles of Scilly 214,713 11% 10% 5% Dorset 262,427 18% 6% 3% Gloucestershire 230,056 17% 5% 5% North Devon 207,879 10% 1% 5% Plymouth 186,774 9% 3% 0% Poole 289,198 21% 5% 9% Somerset 216,712 14% 2% 2% South Devon 239,247 15% 5% 4% South Gloucestershire 255,449 28% 7% 6% Swindon 214,162 11% 8% 5% Wiltshire 246,564 20% 7% 6% North West Cheshire 199,066 7% 4% 1% City of Manchester 216,331 8% -1% 3% Greater Manchester 182,450 10% 5% 2% Lancashire 152,562 0% 4% -2% Merseyside 165,645 3% 3% 2% Warrington & Halton 191,048 11% 6% 8% 6

7 West Midlands Birmingham 198,131 7% 5% 6% Coventry 190,253 16% 9% 10% Greater Birmingham 186,644 6% 5% 2% Herefordshire 201,721 8% 10% 8% Shropshire 187,451 8% 5% 3% Staffordshire 174,797 6% 4% 3% Warwickshire 230,269 18% 8% 5% Worcestershire 213,337 8% 3% 0% East Midlands Derby 184,605 8% 6% 4% Derbyshire 183,614 10% 5% 4% Leicestershire 196,533 11% 6% 6% Mid Lincolnshire 162,096 5% 7% 5% Northampton Town 206,482 14% 8% 7% Northamptonshire 202,849 15% 6% 8% Nottingham 160,446-2% 11% -2% Nottinghamshire 178,750 12% 8% 4% South Lincolnshire 171,394 6% 6% 4% Outer Metropolitan Bracknell Forest 339,817 38% 10% 9% Central Kent 294,104 26% 7% 6% East Surrey 402,316 48% 12% 10% Hart & Rushmoor 326,769 41% 12% 9% Hertfordshire 359,109 43% 12% 8% Luton 240,418 27% 6% 10% Medway 240,710 31% 14% 13% North Surrey 412,230 48% 10% 7% Reading 335,097 52% 19% 13% Slough 358,486 46% 19% 21% South Buckinghamshire & Chilterns 379,252 41% 12% 10% South Essex 298,166 31% 14% 9% St Albans 488,284 68% 22% 8% West Kent 306,729 31% 10% 9% West Surrey 396,535 46% 11% 7% West Sussex (North) 326,303 34% 10% 8% Windsor & Maidenhead 417,899 46% 14% 8% Wokingham 361,614 46% 12% 11% 7

8 London London Boroughs Barking and Dagenham 272,935 48% 22% 19% Barnet 459,013 71% 12% 9% Bexley 305,756 51% 11% 8% Brent 554, % 8% 17% Bromley 372,827 64% 13% 7% Camden 834, % 11% -1% Croydon 341,309 63% 19% 17% Ealing 507,975 77% 15% 10% Enfield 381,596 59% 20% 11% Greenwich 426,001 86% 17% 14% Hackney 627, % 10% 6% Hammersmith and Fulham 797, % 11% 5% Haringey 526,565 89% 6% 3% Harrow 402,475 61% 14% 10% Havering 288,142 41% 13% 10% Hillingdon 363,188 47% 13% 8% Hounslow 392,244 56% 5% -1% Islington 716, % 7% 3% Kingston upon Thames 471,135 78% 19% 9% Lambeth 574, % 12% 4% Lewisham 442,676 96% 15% 9% Merton 481,507 82% 3% 5% Newham 374,702 79% 20% 16% Redbridge 357,847 53% 16% 11% Richmond upon Thames 565,748 88% 13% 2% Southwark 579, % 10% 6% Sutton 362,035 61% 18% 18% Tower Hamlets 542,401 89% 6% -3% Waltham Forest 417,501 90% 17% 14% Wandsworth 648, % 10% 3% Westminster 956, % 9% 0% Note: City of London and Kensington & Chelsea excluded due to low sample size East Anglia Cambridgeshire 268,411 33% 14% 12% Norfolk 208,774 17% 7% 7% Peterborough 185,487 13% 0% 7% Suffolk 225,430 24% 10% 7% 8

9 Outer South East Basingstoke & Deane 294,661 35% 11% 8% Bedford 226,941 17% 11% 7% Brighton & Hove 406,479 61% 13% 10% Central Bedfordshire 274,312 31% 12% 12% East Kent 236,818 24% 10% 7% East Sussex 263,388 23% 4% 6% Isle of Wight 205,603 12% -1% 1% Mid Hampshire 314,292 31% 7% 4% Milton Keynes & Aylesbury 290,730 35% 10% 11% New Forest 306,684 33% 7% 8% North Essex 250,838 21% 9% 5% Oxfordshire 339,571 42% 10% 10% Portsmouth Area 226,810 22% 9% 6% Southampton Area 256,142 23% 4% 3% West Berkshire 329,550 42% 11% 9% West Sussex (South) 295,143 28% 10% 8% North County Durham 157,374 13% 9% 7% Cumbria 172,339 14% 2% 0% Northumberland 175,973 6% 10% 7% Teesside 158,838 4% 4% 1% Tyne and Wear 173,670 3% 5% 3% 9

10 Notes 1. Indices and average prices for the UK and the regions are produced using Nationwide's updated mix adjusted House Price Methodology which was introduced with effect from the first quarter of All s are nominal and do not allow for inflation. The methodology can be found on our website: 2. dices are seasonally adjusted using the US Bureau of the Census X12 method. Quarterly series are seasonally adjusted using data since The seasonal adjustment is recalculated quarterly and may lead to revisions. 3. The price s in the sub regional, local authority and major towns and cities tables are based on the price per unit area of the properties in the sample rather than the mix-adjusted methodology used for the 13 regions. The average price per square foot in each of the sub-regions is grossed up by the average square footage in a particular region to arrive at an average house price. Unlike Nationwide s main index, this methodology does not take into account the different mix of properties transacted and is therefore a simplification. 4. Sub-regional figures are therefore not directly comparable with regional prices. Samples are substantially smaller than at a regional level and figures should not be relied upon for any critical application. Due to greater volatility, sub-regional prices are smoothed over two quarters. Photographs of our economist are available at: Legal Information The Nationwide House Price Indices are prepared from information that we believe is collated with care, but no representation is made as to their accuracy or completeness. We reserve the right to vary our methodology and to edit or discontinue the indices at any time, for regulatory or other reasons. Persons seeking to place reliance on the Indices for any purpose whatsoever do so at their own risk and should be aware that various factors, including external factors beyond Nationwide Building Society s control might necessitate material s to the Indices. The Nationwide House Price Indices may not be used for commercial purposes including as a reference for: 1) determining the interest payable, or other sums due, under loan agreements or other contracts relating to investments 2) determining the price at which investments may be bought or sold or the value of investments or 3) measuring the performance of investments. Nationwide Building Society is the owner of the trade mark Nationwide and all copyright and other rights in the Nationwide House Price Indices. The application of the IOSCO Principles on financial benchmarks to the NHPI is more fully set out in our statement regarding IOSCO Principles. Nationwide considers that its arrangements for administration of the NHPI comply with the IOSCO Principles in a proportionate manner having regard to the nature of the index. 10