Integrating Trade,Climate Change and Food Security within Global Development Framework

Transcription

1 Integrating Trade,Climate Change and Food Security within Global Development Framework Posh Raj Pandey South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics & Environment (SAWTEE) Presented at Regional Training of Economic Journalist on Trade Climate Change and Food Security Organized by SAWTEE and IPS in collaboration with Oxfam, UNESCAP, and Common Wealth Secretariat 4-5 July 2013, Club Palm bay Hotel, Marawila, Sri Lanka

2 Structure of the presentation Understanding the concept: climate change Climate change risks in south Asia Interface between climate change and trade Interface between climate change and food security Interface between trade and food security Addressing climate change in post-2015 development agenda

3 Defining climate change Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g. using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. It refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. -Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Climate change refers to a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods. - United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

4 Scientific evidence Is earth warming? (1) The warmest eleven years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850) fall during the last 20 years. The linear warming trend over the 50 years from 1956 to 2005 (0.13 C per decade) is nearly twice that for the 100 years from 1906 to Furthermore, for the 30 year period from 1976 to 2007, the rate of temperature change was three times higher than the rate for the past 100 years (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 2007). Observations show that temperature increases are greater at higher northern latitudes, where average Arctic temperatures, for example, have increased at almost twice the average global rate in the past 100 years (Meehl et al., 2007).

5 Circumstantial evidence Is earth warming? (2) Global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 mm per year over 1961 to 2003 and at an average rate of about 3.1 mm per year from 1993 to Annual average Arctic sea ice extent has shrunk by 2.7 % per decade, with larger decreases in summer of 7.4 % per decade. Mountain glaciers and snow cover on average have declined in both hemispheres. The maximum areal extent of seasonally frozen ground has decreased by about 7% in the Northern Hemisphere since 1900, with decreases in spring of up to 15%. The growing season has lengthened across much of the Northern Hemisphere. For example, Japan s sakura (cherry blossoms) now blooms five days earlier on average in Tokyo than it did fifty years ago.

6 Is earth warming? (3) During the period from 1900 to 2005, precipitation increased significantly in eastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia whereas precipitation declined in the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of southern Asia. Mosquitoes, birds and other creatures are being pushed into new territories, driven to higher altitudes and latitudes by increasing warmth.

7 Anthropogenic climate change drivers, impacts and responses

8 Potential impacts of climate change (1)

9 Potential impacts of climate change (2)

10 Climate Change in South Asia (1) Carbon emission and key observed climate trend and variability in South Asia Country CO2 Change in temperature Change in precipitation emission (MT per capita, 2008 Afghanistan NA NA Bangladesh Increasing trend of about 1 degree Celsius in May and 0.5 degree Celsius in November from 1985 to 1998 Bhutan 1.04 India degree Celsius increase per century with increasing trends in annual mean temperature and warming more pronounced during post monsoon and winter Maldives 2.99 Nepal degree Celsius increase per year in Himalayas and 0.04 degree Celsius in Terai region with more in winter Pakistan degree Celsius increase in mean temperature in coastal areas since early 1900s Sri Lanka degree Celsius increase per year between 1961 to 90 over entire country and 2 degree Celsius increase per century in Central high land Cruz et al. 2007, World Development Indicators Decadal rain anomalies above long term average since 1960s Increase in extreme rains in north-west summer monsoon in recent decades and lower number of rainy days along east coast No distinct long-term trends in precipitation records for percent decrease in coastal belt and hyper arid plains nd increase in summer and winter precipitation over the last 40 years in northern Pakistan An increase trend in February and decrease trend in June

11 Climate change in South Asia (2) Country level risks of climate change Country Risks Afghanistan Exposure of agriculture (pasture), ecosystem, and water resources to drought and desertification Flooding from glacial melt and long run vulnerability of depletion of water supplies glacial-fed rivers Water and food insecurity, malnutrition, and possible mitigation and conflict Bangladesh Combined impacts of sea-level rise and glacial melt lead to increased incidence of flooding and land loss Drought in some areas More intense storm surges Lower agriculture output through diminished yields and loss of land Increased incidence of heat-related illness, water-borne diseases poverty, child and infant mortality; lower access to safe water and sanitation and possible migration Loss of biodiversity in coastal ecosystem, Source World bank 2009

12 Climate Change in South Asia (2) Country level risks of climate change Country Risks Bhutan Damage from glacial melt Impact of increased temperature on rangelands and agriculture Potential loss of forest biodiversity due to vegetation and increased incidence of forest fire due to temperature increase India Exposure of agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems to extreme weather events and more variable precipitation Impact of glacial melt on water resources, quantity, biodiversity and low-lying agriculture Impact on urban infrastructure including drainages, water and sanitation Vegetation shift in forests and biodiversity, regime shifts in rangelands, and decreased agricultural yields in tropics and subtropics Increased exposure to sea rise Source: World Bank 2009

13 Climate Change in South Asia (2) Country level risks of climate change Country Risks Maldives Ecosystem damages and loss afforded by coral reefs Inundation of island due to sea-level rise and physical damages from flooding Increased salinity of ground waters resources Possible migration and large scale relocation Nepal Decline in agriculture production in some areas Glacial lake outburst floods and future desiccation of water resources due to rapid glacial melt and impact on dependent ecosystems and agriculture Impact of vegetation shift to forest biodiversity Likely outbreak of malaria and similar diseases Source; World Bank 2009

14 Climate Change in South Asia (2) Country level risks of climate change Country Risks Pakistan Increased intensity and frequency of drought and effects on agriculture (pasture), water resources, and ecosystems (wetlands) Initial flooding and future drying of water resources due to glacial melt and impact on water consumption Damages 0f sea level rise 143 Outbreak of heat related and insect-transmitted diseases, malnutrition, food and water insecurity, migration, and conflict Sri Lanka Reduced drop yields due to temperature increase Sea-level rise; damages to settlements, industries; and livelihoods in coastal areas Saltwater intrusion in agriculture, fresh water, and ground water Ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss in coastal and marine ecosystem Source World Bank 2009

15 Trade and climate change Interface (1)

16 Interface between trade and climate change (2) In summary, four main climate change and trade linkages Climate change physically affecting trade (patterns and volume) Trade affecting climate change directly: international transport contributing to greenhouse gas emissions (scale effect) indirectly: trade-induced growth affecting production and policy priorities (composition effect, technology effect) Climate change policies affecting trade Trade policies as a mechanism to address climate change

17 Interface between trade and climate change (3) Climate change policies affecting trade Carbon tax and emission trading scheme Border carbon management Allocation of emission allowance free of charges National promotion of low carbon technologies and clean energy Technical regulations, standard and labeling scheme Trade policy as mechanism to address climate change Environmental goods and services Intellectual property rights

18 Interface between climate change and food security What is food security? WHO defines three facets of food security: food availability, food access, and food use. Food availability is having available sufficient quantities of food on a consistent basis. Food access is having sufficient resources, both economic and physical, to obtain appropriate foods for a nutritious diet. Food use is the appropriate use based on knowledge of basic nutrition and care, as well as adequate water and sanitation. The FAO adds a fourth facet: the stability of the first three dimensions of food security over time. Climate change impacts all four pillar of food security.

19 Interface between climate change and food security (2)

20 Impact of climate change on agriculture Higher temperatures affect plant, animal and farmers health, enhance pests and reduce water supply increasing the risk of growing aridity and land degradation. Modified precipitation patterns will enhance water scarcity and associated drought stress for crops and alter irrigation water supplies. They also reduce the predictability for farmers planning. The enhanced frequency of weather extremes may significantly influence both crop and livestock production. It may also considerably impact or destroy physical infra-structure for agriculture. Enhanced atmospheric concentrations of CO2 may, for a limited period of time, lead to natural carbon fertilization and thus a stimulus to crop productivity. Sea level rise is likely to influence trade infra-structure for agriculture, may inundate producing areas and alter aquaculture production conditions.

21 Adaptation and Mitigation strategies Adaptation strategy Sustainable natural resource management Water management and enhanced productivity Reducing uncertainty in water availability Water harvesting Investment in irrigation Soil and water conservation Enahncing water productivity Biodiversity conservation Climate risk management Pest and disease management Fisheries and aquaculture Mitigation strategy Soil carbon sequestration Agro-forestry initiatives Improving efficiency of nutrient management Restoration of organic soil and degraded lands

22 Interface between trade and food security Issue of food security vis-à-vis international trade boils down to the question of maximizing domestic production regardless of costs (food self sufficiency or food sovereignty) or maximizing domestic production at competitive cost (food self reliant). Smoothen the impacts of instability in agricultural production. Enhance access through impact on efficiency, level of income, government revenue, employment and wage level Contribute to transitory food security through increased availability of food and stability in food prices. But it also Enhance price instability in food prices Impact on the shape of the global food supply chain and dualization of farming system Increase incentive to specialize in export crops and resulting dependency

23 Post-2015 development agenda Reduce hunger Reduce GHG emission Decrease environment cost of food production Reduce waste Reform financial system Conclude trade negotiations with developmental outcome Increase support to developing and least developed countries (LDCs).

24 Thank you for your kind attention.