The 2012 Corn Crop: Implications for Ethanol and the RFS

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "The 2012 Corn Crop: Implications for Ethanol and the RFS"

Transcription

1 The 2012 Corn Crop: Implications for Ethanol and the RFS Geoff Cooper Renewable Fuels Association August 14, 2012

2 Million Bushels Drought has Reduced Crop Size Potential by ~25% 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 U.S. Corn Production, Historical and 2012 Projections 10,531 13,110 14,790 12,970 12,358 10,779 Source: USDA, WASDE

3 The Myths and Spin Coming from RFS Opponents The ethanol industry won t share in demand rationing because of the RFS. The RFS is an inflexible, inelastic demand driver that will suck up 5 b. bu. of corn no matter what. The ethanol industry is insulated from the effects of high corn prices because of the RFS. Waiving the RFS would free up corn and meaningfully reduce feed prices. The RFS is driving up food prices. The RFS is causing higher gas prices.

4 The Facts: A Waiver is Not Necessary Ethanol industry is already responding to high corn prices and reducing corn consumption Production rate has decreased rapidly Ethanol exports are decreasing Blenders are drawing on robust ethanol stocks Significant flexibility is built into the RFS: Allows obligated parties to comply even in the event of ethanol production shortfall Allows corn market to adjust naturally to price signals The flexibilities in the RFS and responsiveness of the market make a waiver unnecessary and ineffective in reducing corn price

5 Ethanol Industry Response to High Corn Prices Since early June, industry has reduced corn consumption approximately 12% Approximately 1.5 billion gallons of capacity idled Roughly 26 ethanol plants idle Many other plants operating well below capacity

6 Iowa Corn Price ($/bushel) Corn Use for Ethanol (thousand bu.) Ethanol industry corn consumption $8.50 $8.00 $7.50 $7.00 $6.50 $6.00 $5.50 $5.81 down 12% from early June WEEKLY CORN CONSUMPTION BY ETHANOL PLANTS & CORN PRICE (IOWA) Corn Price, Iowa (Left Axis) Annualized corn use = 5.02 bbu. Corn Use for Ethanol (Right Axis) Annualized corn use (4-wk.) = 4.40 bbu. $ ,000 96,000 94,000 92,000 90,000 88,000 86,000 84,000 $ ,000 Source: EIA, USDA

7 6/4/2010 7/2/2010 7/30/2010 8/27/2010 9/24/ /22/ /19/ /17/2010 1/14/2011 2/11/2011 3/11/2011 4/8/2011 5/6/2011 6/3/2011 7/1/2011 7/29/2011 8/26/2011 9/23/ /21/ /18/ /16/2011 1/13/2012 2/10/2012 3/9/2012 4/6/2012 5/4/2012 6/1/2012 6/29/2012 7/27/2012 Thousand bpd Ethanol production has fallen to a 2-year low in response to higher corn prices WEEKLY ETHANOL PRODUCTION (000 bpd) 1000 Weekly Ethanol Production Implied RFS Requirements Source: EIA

8 6/4/2010 7/2/2010 7/30/2010 8/27/2010 9/24/ /22/ /19/ /17/2010 1/14/2011 2/11/2011 3/11/2011 4/8/2011 5/6/2011 6/3/2011 7/1/2011 7/29/2011 8/26/2011 9/23/ /21/ /18/ /16/2011 1/13/2012 2/10/2012 3/9/2012 4/6/2012 5/4/2012 6/1/2012 6/29/2012 7/27/2012 Million Barrels Ethanol Stocks Hit Record Levels in March and Remain Slightly Heavy WEEKLY ETHANOL STOCKS vs. 20-DAY SUPPLY Ethanol Stocks 20-Days Supply (Implied) 10.0 Source: EIA

9 MILLION GALLONS Ethanol Exports and Imports Are Adjusting 2012 US ETHANOL IMPORTS-EXPORTS US ETHANOL EXPORTS US ETHANOL IMPORTS 10 NET EXPORTS Jun-12 May-12 Apr-12 Mar-12 Feb-12 Jan-12 Source: Dept. of Commerce

10 Million Bushels Demand Rationing in 2012/13 USDA s latest projections show all end users will share in demand rationing 7, /13 Projected Corn Use (July vs. August estimates) Feed/Residual + Dist. Grains Ethanol Exports Other Food, Seed, Industrial 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Distillers Grains, 1,633 Distillers Grains, 1,500 Feed & Residual, 4,800 July WASDE Feed & Residual, 4,075 August WASDE Distillers Grains, 1,633 Ethanol (Net DG), 3,267 July WASDE Distillers Grains, 1,500 Ethanol (Net DG), 3,000 August WASDE Exports, 1,600 July WASDE Exports, 1,300 August WASDE Other FSI, 1,420 July WASDE Other FSI, 1,350 August WASDE -13% reduction -8% reduction -19% reduction -5% reduction Source: USDA, WASDE

11 Implications for 2012 RFS Compliance Requirements for 2012: 13.2 bg renewable fuel (corn/sorghum ethanol) Will we meet 2012 RFS for renewable fuel given downturn in production? YES, meeting the 2012 RFS won t be an issue Ethanol stocks & excess RINs will ensure compliance without unduly straining ethanol, corn, or RIN markets

12 Meeting the 2012 RFS Actual refiner obligations are percentages of non-exempt fuel Thus, they are somewhat lower than statutory volumes because of lower-than-projected gasoline/diesel use Renewable fuel obligation is ~13.04 bg vs bg Advanced biofuel obligation is ~1.97 bg vs. 2.0 bg If ethanol market gets tight, refiners will draw on stocks first If short on physical gallons, refiners can use excess ( banked ) RINs for compliance Refiners can meet as much as 20% of their obligation using RINs generated in the previous year Bank of excess RINs is ~ billion (equiv. of ~1 bil. bu. corn) If short on physical gallons AND RINs, refiner can carry compliance deficit forward one year

13 Outlook for RFS statutory requirements: Renewable fuel = bg 2013 Gasoline demand = 133 billion gallons (EIA) Thus, 2013 E10 blend wall = 13.3 bg Increased E15 use, but roll-out remains slow High corn prices and reduced ethanol production levels through August 2013 will likely lead to accelerated use of surplus RINs and ethanol stocks for 2013 RFS compliance

14 Million Bushels Between RFS Flexibilities and Ethanol Stocks, there is a 1.3 Billion Bushel Cushion in 2012/13 5,000 Potential Effect of RFS and Ethanol Market Flexibilities on 2012/13 Gross Corn Use for Ethanol & Co-products 4, ,500 4,000 3,500 Latest USDA Estimate (4,500) 929 3,571 3,000 2,500 2,000 Implied Corn Use Required to Meet RFS in 2012/ RVO Adjustment Use of Ethanol Stocks Use of Surplus RINs Potential 2012/13 Corn Use for RFS After Flexibilities

15 The Real Effects of an RFS Waiver Negligible reduction in corn price A waiver would have little impact on corn price because of existing RFS compliance flexibilities and market responses No discernible impact on retail food prices Only minor decrease in ethanol output in short term Demand for ethanol strong in short term irrespective of RFS (e.g., octane, RFG, export) Chilling signal to advanced biofuel investors Slows commercial roll-out of E15 Disincentive to farmers to plant corn in 2013

16 CARD Study: Waiving the RFS would not meaningfully reduce corn prices in 12/13 CARD Study Results* 2012/13 Corn Marketing Year No RFS Waiver Full RFS Waiver % Change Corn, Farm Price ($/bu) $6.06 $ % Ethanol, Plant Price ($/gal.) $2.37 $ % Ethanol Production (bg) % Ethanol RIN Price ($/RIN) $0.16 $ US Ethanol Exports (bg) % Source: Bruce A. Babcock. Preliminary Assessment of the Drought s Impacts on Crop Prices and Biofuel Production. CARD Policy Brief. July 2012 [12-PB 7] July CARD report simulates 2012/13 impacts of RFS waiver on markets Examined 500 scenarios with avg. corn yield ranging from bu/acre Full waiver results in just 4.6% cut in corn price, 4.7% cut in ethanol output The desire by livestock groups to see additional flexibility in ethanol mandates may not result in as large a drop in feed costs as hoped. CARD study the flexibility built into the RFS allowing obligated parties to carry over blending credits (RINs) from previous years significantly lowers the economic impacts of a short crop, because it introduces flexibility into the mandate. CARD study

17 Some Context on Gas Prices Gasoline prices are surging again National average retail price up 11% since July 2 Last week s avg. ($3.72/gal.) highest since mid-may RFS opponents attempting to blame drought for higher gas prices (higher corn prices ethanol prices) Ethanol increased from ~$2/gal. in late June to $2.55/gal. currently But ethanol still $ /gal. cheaper than gasoline! Real culprit is higher crude oil prices and oil refinery outages/problems (e.g., Chevron refinery fire) Impact of bg ethanol blending on gas prices in 2011: $0.84-$1.07/gallon reduction* *Source: lower=lsu, 2012; upper=card, 2012

18 E 2013P Some Context on Food Prices 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1970s = 7.8% 1980s = 4.6% U.S. Food Inflation (Year-over-Year % Change) USDA: Food price inflation is expected to be close to the historical average this year and just slightly above that next year. 1990s = 2.8% 2000s = 2.9% Source: BLS, USDA All Food CPI Ten-Year Average

19 Corn price is a trivial contributor to retail food prices Corn is but one of many agricultural commodities and ethanol is one of many price drivers for corn Source: USDA

20 What About the Rest of the World? Critics often suggest food price impacts of U.S. ethanol policy are disproportionately larger in poorer countries U.S. corn and DDGS exports feed meat animals in developed countries, not humans in developing and Third World countries U.S. ethanol policy has negligible impact on prices for food crops 09/10 impacts* = $0.03/bushel for wheat (0.6%); $0.04/cwt for rice (0.3%) U.S. ethanol industry projected to use 2.90% of global grain supply in 2012/13, the lowest in five years *Source: Babcock, Bruce. June The Impact of US Biofuel Policies on Agricultural Price Levels and Volatility. Conducted for International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (ICTSD)

21 The Corn Market is Global 2011/ /13 Change % Change Million Metric Tons % U.S % China % Brazil % EU % FSU % SE Asia % Argentina % Mexico % S. Africa % Canada % Rest of World % TOTAL % Source: USDA, August WASDE U.S. production is estimated down 12.8% from last year, but global production is only off 2.8%. The 2012 global corn crop is projected to be the second-largest on record, trailing only 2011.

22 Summary Ethanol industry has quickly responded to higher corn prices by reducing production and exports Ethanol producers WILL share in rationing demand Obligated parties have flexibility in meeting RFS requirements Ample ethanol stocks, surplus RINs will enable RFS compliance in 2012 and 2013 Waiving RFS would not meaningfully reduce corn prices or ethanol production in short term Less than 5% reduction in corn price and ethanol output If a waiver did result in significantly reduced production: Gas prices increase; production of DG and SBM falls RFS has no discernible impact on retail food prices

Ethanol Usage Projections & Corn Balance Sheet (mil. bu.)

Ethanol Usage Projections & Corn Balance Sheet (mil. bu.) Ethanol Usage Projections & Corn Balance Sheet (mil. bu.) Updated 12/21/215 Historic Est. Prelim. Proj. 216-17 Year: (production/marketing) 1/ 211-12 212-13 213-14 214-15 215-16 Low Med. 4 High Yield (bu.

More information

Soybean Supply and Demand Forecast

Soybean Supply and Demand Forecast Soybean Supply and Demand Forecast U.S. soybean planted acreage is expected to increase 11.5 million acres over the forecast period. U.S. soybean yields are expected to increase 7 bushels per acre or an

More information

Grain Stocks Estimates: Can Anything Explain the Market Surprises of Recent Years? Scott H. Irwin

Grain Stocks Estimates: Can Anything Explain the Market Surprises of Recent Years? Scott H. Irwin Grain Stocks Estimates: Can Anything Explain the Market Surprises of Recent Years? Scott H. Irwin http://nationalhogfarmer.com/weekly-preview/1004-corn-controversies-hog-market http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/sb10001424052970203752604576641561657796544

More information

FUTURES TRADERS GUIDE TO THE WASDE

FUTURES TRADERS GUIDE TO THE WASDE FUTURES TRADERS GUIDE TO THE WASDE Your Guide To Understanding The USDA World Agriculture Supply & Demand Estimates For Corn, Soybeans And Wheat By Craig & Drew Daniels 1.800.800.3840 What Is The WASDE?

More information

Market Monitor Number 3 November 2012

Market Monitor Number 3 November 2012 Market Monitor Number 3 November 2012 AMIS Crops: World Supply-Demand Balances in 2012/13 World supply and demand situation continues to tighten for wheat and maize but rice and soybeans have eased. In

More information

CONTRIBUTION OF THE ETHANOL INDUSTRY TO THE ECONOMY OF THE UNITED STATES IN 2014

CONTRIBUTION OF THE ETHANOL INDUSTRY TO THE ECONOMY OF THE UNITED STATES IN 2014 CONTRIBUTION OF THE ETHANOL INDUSTRY TO THE ECONOMY OF THE UNITED STATES IN 2014 Prepared for the Renewable Fuels Association by John M. Urbanchuk Managing Partner February 2015 The U.S. ethanol industry

More information

Grains and Oilseeds Outlook

Grains and Oilseeds Outlook United States Department of Agriculture Grains and Oilseeds Outlook Friday, February 20, 2015 www.usda.gov/oce/forum Agricultural Outlook Forum 2015 Released: Friday, February 20, 2015 GRAINS AND OILSEEDS

More information

Grains and Oilseeds Outlook

Grains and Oilseeds Outlook United States Department of Agriculture Grains and Oilseeds Outlook Friday, February 26, 2016 www.usda.gov/oce/forum Agricultural Outlook Forum 2016 Released: Friday, February 26, 2016 GRAINS AND OILSEEDS

More information

AGRICULTURE FOR FOOD AND FOR BIOENEGY: IS IT POSSIBLE?

AGRICULTURE FOR FOOD AND FOR BIOENEGY: IS IT POSSIBLE? GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE BIOENERGY PROJECT AGRICULTURE FOR FOOD AND FOR BIOENEGY: IS IT POSSIBLE? Dr. Rodolfo Quintero-Ramírez March 24 th, 2010 Sao Paulo, Brazil ? FOOD ANIMAL FEED AGRICULTURE BIOENERGY BIOPRODUCTS

More information

Analysis for Strategic Planning Applied to Ethanol and Distillers Grain

Analysis for Strategic Planning Applied to Ethanol and Distillers Grain International Food and Agribusiness Management Review Volume 16, Special Issue 3, 2013 Analysis for Strategic Planning Applied to Ethanol and Distillers Grain Dennis M. Conley Professor and Director, Graduate

More information

Market will worry about demand later Weekly Corn Review for May 11, 2016 By Bryce Knorr

Market will worry about demand later Weekly Corn Review for May 11, 2016 By Bryce Knorr Market will worry about demand later Weekly Corn Review for May 11, 2016 By Bryce Knorr USDA didn t do much to help the corn market in its May 10 reports other than give soybeans a big lift. That could

More information

The$Mortar$is$Nearly$Set$ $

The$Mortar$is$Nearly$Set$ $ The$Mortar$is$Nearly$Set$ $ The$Consequences$of$Exceeding$ the$blendwall$in$2013$and$2014$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Ben$Montalbano$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ July$22,$2013$ Introduction Ethanol, when blended

More information

The Impact of Ethanol Production on Food, Feed and Fuel

The Impact of Ethanol Production on Food, Feed and Fuel Issue Brief: The Impact of Ethanol Production on Food, Feed and Fuel Summer 2007 A Publication of Ethanol Across America For more than three decades, critics have tried to cast ethanol as a food versus

More information

STATEMENT OF HOWARD GRUENSPECHT DEPUTY ADMINISTRATOR ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY BEFORE THE

STATEMENT OF HOWARD GRUENSPECHT DEPUTY ADMINISTRATOR ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY BEFORE THE STATEMENT OF HOWARD GRUENSPECHT DEPUTY ADMINISTRATOR ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND COMMERCE SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND POWER UNITED STATES

More information

RISK FACTORS IN ETHANOL PRODUCTION

RISK FACTORS IN ETHANOL PRODUCTION RISK FACTORS IN ETHANOL PRODUCTION David Coltrain Extension Assistant, Department of Agricultural Economics Kansas Cooperative Development Center Kansas State University Manhattan, KS 66506 785-532-1523

More information

Energy in 2020: Assessing the Economic Effects of Commercialization of Cellulosic Ethanol

Energy in 2020: Assessing the Economic Effects of Commercialization of Cellulosic Ethanol Energy in 2020: Assessing the Economic Effects of Commercialization of Cellulosic Ethanol by Stefan Osborne Office of Competition and Economic Analysis Executive Summary U.S. dependence on imports of crude

More information

Missouri Soybean Economic Impact Report

Missouri Soybean Economic Impact Report Missouri Soybean Economic Report State Analysis March 2014 The following soybean economic impact values were estimated by Value Ag, LLC, as part of a Missouri Soybean Merchandising Council funded project.

More information

FCStone Grain Recap January 6, 2016

FCStone Grain Recap January 6, 2016 CORN: CH16 made new contract lows but were unable to hold below unchanged into the close. Weekly ethanol production marginally higher this week, up 4 thbpd to 996. Ethanol stocks built again reaching 21099

More information

Policy Options for Integrated Energy and Agricultural Markets. Wally Tyner Farzad Taheripour

Policy Options for Integrated Energy and Agricultural Markets. Wally Tyner Farzad Taheripour Policy Options for Integrated Energy and Agricultural Markets Wally Tyner Farzad Taheripour Market Integration In the past, agricultural markets have been well integrated. Markets for different energy

More information

Corn Transportation Profile

Corn Transportation Profile Corn Transportation Profile AMS Transportation and Marketing Programs August 2014 Marina R. Denicoff Marvin E. Prater Pierre Bahizi Executive Summary America s farmers depend on transportation as the critical

More information

Analysis of Whether the Prices of Renewable Fuel Standard RINs Have Affected Retail Gasoline Prices

Analysis of Whether the Prices of Renewable Fuel Standard RINs Have Affected Retail Gasoline Prices Analysis of Whether the Prices of Renewable Fuel Standard RINs Have Affected Retail Gasoline Prices A Whitepaper Prepared for the Renewable Fuels Association Key Findings Changes in prices of renewable

More information

Abstract. In this paper, we attempt to establish a relationship between oil prices and the supply of

Abstract. In this paper, we attempt to establish a relationship between oil prices and the supply of The Effect of Oil Prices on the Domestic Supply of Corn: An Econometric Analysis Daniel Blanchard, Saloni Sharma, Abbas Raza April 2015 Georgia Institute of Technology Abstract In this paper, we attempt

More information

2013 World Grain Outlook

2013 World Grain Outlook 2013 World Grain Outlook Presented by: John Roach February 18, 2013 Disclaimer: Futures/options trading involves substantial risk of loss and trading may not be suitable for all investors. You should fully

More information

Effects of Recent Energy Price Reductions on U.S. Agriculture

Effects of Recent Energy Price Reductions on U.S. Agriculture United States Department of Agriculture BIO-04 June 2015 A Report from the Economic Research Service www.ers.usda.gov Effects of Recent Energy Price Reductions on U.S. Agriculture Kandice K. Marshall,

More information

INTRODUCTION TO THE ETHANOL SUPPLEMENT

INTRODUCTION TO THE ETHANOL SUPPLEMENT INTRODUCTION TO THE Program planning for export market development must take into account the diversity of market development programs, geographic realities, economic conditions, the nature of constraints

More information

Fertilizer is a world market commodity, which means that supply

Fertilizer is a world market commodity, which means that supply Supply & demand, Energy Drive Global fertilizer prices The Fertilizer Institute Nourish, Replenish, Grow Fertilizer is a world market commodity necessary for the production of food, feed, fuel fiber. &

More information

EFFECTS OF AN RFS ON U.S. ENERGY SAVINGS, NATIONAL COSTS OF GASOLINE PRODUCTION, AND THE REGIONAL PATTERN OF ETHANOL USE

EFFECTS OF AN RFS ON U.S. ENERGY SAVINGS, NATIONAL COSTS OF GASOLINE PRODUCTION, AND THE REGIONAL PATTERN OF ETHANOL USE EFFECTS OF AN RFS ON U.S. ENERGY SAVINGS, NATIONAL COSTS OF GASOLINE PRODUCTION, AND THE REGIONAL PATTERN OF ETHANOL USE Prepared for American Petroleum Institute By MathPro Inc. May 23, 25 MathPro Inc.

More information

Biofuels Outlook Market Developments and Policy Challenges Anselm Eisentraut

Biofuels Outlook Market Developments and Policy Challenges Anselm Eisentraut Biofuels Outlook Market Developments and Policy Challenges Anselm Eisentraut OECD/IEA 214 World biofuels produc@on end of rapid expansion? mb/d billion litres/yr 2.5 14 2. 12 1 1.5 8 1. 6.5 4 2. 21 23

More information

First Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. 20 February 2015

First Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. 20 February 2015 First Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call 20 February 2015 Safe Harbor Statement & Disclosures The earnings call and accompanying material include forward-looking comments and information concerning

More information

Commodity Price Outlook & Risks

Commodity Price Outlook & Risks Commodity Outlook & Risks Research Department, Commodities Team January, 2 www.imf.org/commodities commodities@imf.org This monthly report presents a price outlook and risk assessment for selected commodities

More information

Global Biofuels Outlook to 2020. Alternative Aviation Fuel In Asia Singapore February 15-16, 2012

Global Biofuels Outlook to 2020. Alternative Aviation Fuel In Asia Singapore February 15-16, 2012 Global Biofuels Outlook to 2020 Alternative Aviation Fuel In Asia Singapore February 15-16, 2012 Overview 1. Global Product Demand 2. Global Biofuels Mandate 3. Biofuels Penetration in the Global On-road

More information

Wheat Transportation Profile

Wheat Transportation Profile Wheat Transportation Profile Agricultural Marketing Service / Transportation and Marketing Programs November 2014 Marina R. Denicoff Marvin E. Prater Pierre Bahizi Executive Summary America s farmers depend

More information

Research Commodities El Niño returns grains and soft commodities at risk

Research Commodities El Niño returns grains and soft commodities at risk Investment Research General Market Conditions 20 May 2015 Research Commodities El Niño returns grains and soft commodities at risk Meteorologists now agree that El Niño has arrived and project that it

More information

Institute of Ag Professionals

Institute of Ag Professionals Institute of Ag Professionals Proceedings of the 2014 Crop Pest Management Shortcourse & Minnesota Crop Production Retailers Association Trade Show www.extension.umn.edu/agprofessionals Do not reproduce

More information

Demand for Ethanol in the Face of Blend Wall: Is it a Complement or a Substitute for Conventional Transportation Fuel in the United States?

Demand for Ethanol in the Face of Blend Wall: Is it a Complement or a Substitute for Conventional Transportation Fuel in the United States? Demand for Ethanol in the Face of Blend Wall: Is it a Complement or a Substitute for Conventional Transportation Fuel in the United States? Zidong Wang Department of Agricultural Economics Texas A&M University

More information

Ethanol Report April 2007 Written by Matthew Page, Co-Manager of the Alternative Energy Fund

Ethanol Report April 2007 Written by Matthew Page, Co-Manager of the Alternative Energy Fund Ethanol Report April 2007 Written by Matthew Page, Co-Manager of the Alternative Energy Fund Ethanol: Fuel for thought. The sun, rich mid-america farmland, water and a little patience. These simple, wholesome

More information

A Note on Rising Food Prices

A Note on Rising Food Prices Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER 4682 A Note on Rising Food Prices The World Bank Development

More information

Policy Options for Integrated Energy and Agricultural Markets and Global Biofuels Impacts

Policy Options for Integrated Energy and Agricultural Markets and Global Biofuels Impacts Policy Options for Integrated Energy and Agricultural Markets and Global Biofuels Impacts Wally Tyner Collaborators: Dileep Birur, Tom Hertel, Farzad Taheripour Main Topics Energy and agricultural markets

More information

Supply & demand outlook for the canola industry

Supply & demand outlook for the canola industry Supply & demand outlook for the canola industry J.P. Gervais Chief Ag Economist March 2015 @jpgervais Canola Canola is one component of the environment for oil producing crops Growth in demand has supported

More information

Implications of Crop Insurance as Social Policy

Implications of Crop Insurance as Social Policy Implications of Crop Insurance as Social Policy Bruce Babcock Iowa State University Presented at the Minnesota Crop Insurance Conference Sept 10, 2014 Mankato, MN Summary of talk 2014 farm bill irrevocably

More information

Pocket Guide to ETHANOL 2015

Pocket Guide to ETHANOL 2015 Pocket Guide to ETHANOL 2015 x ETHANOL BASICS Ethanol is a biodegradable, high-octane motor fuel derived from the sugars, starches, and cellulosic matter found in plants. It has been used as a fuel or

More information

AFBF Comparison of Senate and House Committee passed Farm Bills May 16, 2013

AFBF Comparison of Senate and House Committee passed Farm Bills May 16, 2013 CURRENT LAW SENATE AG COMMITTEE (S. 954) HOUSE AG COMMITTEE (HR 1947) Reported out of Committee 15 5 Reported out of Committee 36 10 Cost $979.7 billion over the 10 years before sequester reductions of

More information

NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF LIFE AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES OF UKRAINE

NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF LIFE AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES OF UKRAINE NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF LIFE AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES OF UKRAINE Ukrainian agricultural products competitiveness on European market in time of financial challenges Sergey Grygoryev Contents: Part 1. Trade

More information

Managing Feed and Milk Price Risk: Futures Markets and Insurance Alternatives

Managing Feed and Milk Price Risk: Futures Markets and Insurance Alternatives Managing Feed and Milk Price Risk: Futures Markets and Insurance Alternatives Dillon M. Feuz Department of Applied Economics Utah State University 3530 Old Main Hill Logan, UT 84322-3530 435-797-2296 dillon.feuz@usu.edu

More information

USDA Agricultural Projections to 2025

USDA Agricultural Projections to 2025 United States Department of Agriculture Office of the Chief Economist World Agricultural Outlook Board Long-term Projections Report OCE-2016-1 February 2016 USDA Agricultural Projections to 2025 Interagency

More information

2015 U.S. ETHANOL EXPORTS AND IMPORTS STATISTICAL SUMMARY

2015 U.S. ETHANOL EXPORTS AND IMPORTS STATISTICAL SUMMARY 2015 U.S. ETHANOL EXPORTS AND IMPORTS STATISTICAL SUMMARY Copyright 2016 Renewable Fuels Association. All Rights Reserved Million Gallons Million Gallons 2015 U.S. ETHANOL EXPORTS U.S. Ethanol Exports,

More information

OILSEEDS AND OILSEED PRODUCTS

OILSEEDS AND OILSEED PRODUCTS 3. COMMODITY SNAPSHOTS OILSEEDS AND OILSEED PRODUCTS Market situation Global oilseeds production in the 214 marketing year (see glossary for a definition of marketing year) reached record levels for the

More information

Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. 21 August 2015

Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. 21 August 2015 Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call 21 August 2015 Safe Harbor Statement & Disclosures The earnings call and accompanying material include forward-looking comments and information concerning the

More information

The Impact of Ethanol Production on Food, Feed and Fuel

The Impact of Ethanol Production on Food, Feed and Fuel Issue Brief: The Impact of Ethanol Production on Food, Feed and Fuel Summer 2008 A Publication of Ethanol Across America For more than three decades, critics have tried to cast ethanol as a food versus

More information

PETROLEUM WATCH September 16, 2011 Fossil Fuels Office Fuels and Transportation Division California Energy Commission

PETROLEUM WATCH September 16, 2011 Fossil Fuels Office Fuels and Transportation Division California Energy Commission PETROLEUM WATCH September 16, 2011 Fossil Fuels Office Fuels and Transportation Division California Energy Commission Summary As of September 14, retail regular-grade gasoline prices in California increased

More information

By Anne Wasko Gateway Livestock, Market Analyst

By Anne Wasko Gateway Livestock, Market Analyst @AnneDunford By Anne Wasko Gateway Livestock, Market Analyst June 2014 J/98 J/99 J/00 J/01 J/02 J/03 J/04 J/05 J/06 J/07 J/08 J/09 J/10 J/11 J/12 J/13 J/14 US $/cwt $160 US Fed Steer Price $140 $120 $100

More information

Coffee prices fall but Brazilian production estimated lower

Coffee prices fall but Brazilian production estimated lower Coffee prices fall but production estimated lower Coffee prices continued their decline as speculation over the current 2015/16 crop suggests that the market has no immediate supply concerns. Indeed, one

More information

Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. 13 August 2014

Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. 13 August 2014 Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call 13 August 2014 Safe Harbor Statement & Disclosures The earnings call and accompanying material include forward-looking comments and information concerning the

More information

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012 OECD/FAO 2012. Chapter 3. Biofuels

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012 OECD/FAO 2012. Chapter 3. Biofuels OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012 OECD/FAO 2012 Chapter 3 Biofuels 87 Biofuels were added to the Outlook in 2008 as an emerging sector that would increasingly affect agricultural markets. This has certainly

More information

World Fuel Ethanol. Analysis and Outlook. Prepared for METI. Dr. Christoph Berg, F.O. Licht

World Fuel Ethanol. Analysis and Outlook. Prepared for METI. Dr. Christoph Berg, F.O. Licht Analysis and Outlook Prepared for METI By Dr. Christoph Berg, F.O. Licht 1 Some basic concepts By production route: Fermentation vs. Synthetic By composition: Anhydrous vs. Hydrous By end-use: Beverage,

More information

2014 BP Madrid forum on energy & sustainability BP 2014

2014 BP Madrid forum on energy & sustainability BP 2014 14 BP Madrid forum on energy & sustainability BP 14 Contents Global energy trends Liquid fuels Refining implications European focus Energy Outlook 35 BP 14 Primary energy consumption growth slows and the

More information

Oil & Gas Market Outlook. 6 th Norwegian Finance Day Marianne Kah, Chief Economist March 2, 2016

Oil & Gas Market Outlook. 6 th Norwegian Finance Day Marianne Kah, Chief Economist March 2, 2016 Oil & Gas Market Outlook 6 th Norwegian Finance Day Marianne Kah, Chief Economist March 2, 2016 Challenging Market Environment Concerns that global economic growth will slow and reduce global oil and natural

More information

US Imported Beef Market A Weekly Update

US Imported Beef Market A Weekly Update US Imported Beef Market A Weekly Update Prepared Exclusively for Meat & Livestock Australia - Sydney Volume XVI, Issue 24 June 29, 2016 Prepared by: Steiner Consulting Group SteinerConsulting.com 800-526-4612

More information

2012 Japan Broiler Market Situation Update and 2013 Outlook

2012 Japan Broiler Market Situation Update and 2013 Outlook THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: GAIN Report

More information

Dairy Market R E P O R T

Dairy Market R E P O R T Volume 17 No. 6 Dairy Market R E P O R T August 2014 DMI NMPF Overview In July, milk and dairy product prices generally halted their decline from the record levels of a few months ago, and CME dairy futures

More information

Market-Driven Inventory System (MDIS)

Market-Driven Inventory System (MDIS) Market-Driven Over the last dozen years, low-price and high-price extremes revealed shortcomings of the U.S. agricultural commodity program. Under the current program when supply exceeds demand, crop prices

More information

Innovative Technology Solutions for Sustainability ABENGOA. Industrial Production Market Outlook. Analyst & Investor Day. Javier Salgado Javier Molina

Innovative Technology Solutions for Sustainability ABENGOA. Industrial Production Market Outlook. Analyst & Investor Day. Javier Salgado Javier Molina Innovative Technology Solutions for Sustainability ABENGOA Industrial Production Market Outlook Javier Salgado Javier Molina Analyst & Investor Day May 2012 Agenda 1 Bioenergy Market Outlook & Growth Strategy

More information

The Journal of Science Policy & Governance

The Journal of Science Policy & Governance The Journal of Science Policy & Governance POLICY MEMO: INCREASING SUSTAINABLE BIOMASS THROUGH PRODUCTION TAX CREDITS BY Ashley Paulsworth ashley0paulsworth@gmail.com Executive Summary As various tax credits

More information

ETBE - back in fashion? Trends and opportunities in the ETBE & Ethanol markets

ETBE - back in fashion? Trends and opportunities in the ETBE & Ethanol markets ETBE - back in fashion? Trends and opportunities in the ETBE & Ethanol markets Presentation to World Biofuels Markets, Amsterdam Geraldine Gilmartin 16 th March, 21 Outline ETBE: Global markets overview

More information

GLOBAL BIOFUELS OUTLOOK 2010-2020 MAELLE SOARES PINTO DIRECTOR BIOFUELS EUROPE & AFRICA WORLD BIOFUELS MARKETS, ROTTERDAM MARCH 23, 2011

GLOBAL BIOFUELS OUTLOOK 2010-2020 MAELLE SOARES PINTO DIRECTOR BIOFUELS EUROPE & AFRICA WORLD BIOFUELS MARKETS, ROTTERDAM MARCH 23, 2011 GLOBAL BIOFUELS OUTLOOK 2010-2020 MAELLE SOARES PINTO DIRECTOR BIOFUELS EUROPE & AFRICA WORLD BIOFUELS MARKETS, ROTTERDAM MARCH 23, 2011 Presentation Overview Global Outlook Biofuels Mandates in 2010 Total

More information

Energy Efficiency s Role in Getting America Out of Its Energy Straightjacket

Energy Efficiency s Role in Getting America Out of Its Energy Straightjacket Energy Efficiency s Role in Getting America Out of Its Energy Straightjacket R. Neal Elliott, Ph.D., P.E. Industrial Program Director ACEEE Jan-06 Industrial Energy Prices 17.00 15.00 13.00 11.00 9.00

More information

298,320 3,041 107,825. Missouri Economic Research Brief FARM AND AGRIBUSINESS. Employment. Number of Agribusinesses.

298,320 3,041 107,825. Missouri Economic Research Brief FARM AND AGRIBUSINESS. Employment. Number of Agribusinesses. Missouri Economic Research Brief FARM AND AGRIBUSINESS Missouri s Farm and Agribusiness Missouri s farm and agribusiness sectors include crops, livestock, industries supporting farm production and farm-related

More information

Short-Term Energy Outlook Market Prices and Uncertainty Report

Short-Term Energy Outlook Market Prices and Uncertainty Report July 2014 Short-Term Energy Outlook Market Prices and Uncertainty Report Crude Oil Prices: After an upward move in mid-june, crude oil prices retreated close to previous levels. The North Sea Brent front

More information

ANALYSIS OF POTENTIAL CAUSES

ANALYSIS OF POTENTIAL CAUSES ANALYSIS OF POTENTIAL CAUSES OF CONSUMER FOOD PRICE INFLATION Prepared for: THE RENEWABLE FUELS FOUNDATION Prepared by: November 2007 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Executive Summary...4 A. Introduction...4 B. Key

More information

Biofuels: Demand. Ethanol and Biodiesel

Biofuels: Demand. Ethanol and Biodiesel Biofuels: Demand for Ethanol and Biodiesel Example: India Compiled by Dr Shoumen Palit Austin Datta School of Engineering Massachusetts Institute of Technology Dr Shoumen Palit Austin Datta, MIT shoumen@mit.edu

More information

Presentation by Dr James Fry, Chairman, LMC International, Oxford, UK to the Canola Council of Canada Vancouver, B.C., March 2013 www.lmc.co.

Presentation by Dr James Fry, Chairman, LMC International, Oxford, UK to the Canola Council of Canada Vancouver, B.C., March 2013 www.lmc.co. Key global trends in agriculture and in oils in particular Presentation by Dr James Fry, Chairman, LMC International, Oxford, UK to the Canola Council of Canada Vancouver, B.C., March 2013 www.lmc.co.uk

More information

Strawberry Industry Overview and Outlook. Feng Wu Research Associate Gulf Coast Research and Education Center University of Florida fengwu@ufl.

Strawberry Industry Overview and Outlook. Feng Wu Research Associate Gulf Coast Research and Education Center University of Florida fengwu@ufl. Strawberry Industry Overview and Outlook Feng Wu Research Associate Gulf Coast Research and Education Center University of Florida fengwu@ufl.edu Zhengfei Guan Assistant Professor Gulf Coast Research and

More information

Steel Industry Executive Summary: July 2016

Steel Industry Executive Summary: July 2016 Steel Industry Executive Summary: July 2016 Highlights From April to May 2016, U.S. imports of steel mill products increased 15.8% to 2.6 million metric tons from 2.2 million metric tons In May 2016, the

More information

Coffee year 2014/15 ends with prices at 20-month low

Coffee year 2014/15 ends with prices at 20-month low Coffee year 2014/15 ends with prices at 20-month low The coffee market slumped further in September, following a slight rally in August, with the weakness of the real and peso again proving the most influential

More information

CBOT AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS

CBOT AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS CBOT AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS Business Development 141 W. Jackson Boulevard Chicago, IL 60604-2994 312-341-7955 fax: 312-341-3027 New York Office One Exchange Plaza 55 Broadway, Suite 2602 New York, NY 10006

More information

3.3 Real Returns Above Variable Costs

3.3 Real Returns Above Variable Costs 3.3 Real Returns Above Variable Costs Several factors can impact the returns above variable costs for crop producers. Over a long period of time, sustained increases in the growth rate for purchased inputs

More information

Economic Effects of the Sugar Program Since the 2008 Farm Bill & Policy Implications for the 2013 Farm Bill

Economic Effects of the Sugar Program Since the 2008 Farm Bill & Policy Implications for the 2013 Farm Bill Economic Effects of the Sugar Program Since the 2008 Farm Bill & Policy Implications for the 2013 Farm Bill June 3, 2013 Overview Changes to the sugar program in the 2008 farm bill made a bad program even

More information

David Sparling Chair Agri-food Innovation dsparling@ivey.ca. Nicoleta Uzea Post-doctoral Fellow nuzea@ivey.ca

David Sparling Chair Agri-food Innovation dsparling@ivey.ca. Nicoleta Uzea Post-doctoral Fellow nuzea@ivey.ca David Sparling Chair Agri-food Innovation dsparling@ivey.ca Nicoleta Uzea Post-doctoral Fellow nuzea@ivey.ca The Issue Canadian agriculture is at a pivotal juncture. The global agriculture and food system

More information

Key global markets and suppliers impacting U.S. grain exports BRICs

Key global markets and suppliers impacting U.S. grain exports BRICs Key global markets and suppliers impacting U.S. grain exports BRICs Levin Flake Senior Agricultural Economist, Global Policy Analysis Division, OGA/FAS/USDA TEGMA Annual Meeting January 23 rd, 2015 U.S.

More information

U.S. Energy Outlook. Oil and Gas Strategies Summit May 21, 2014 New York, NY. By Adam Sieminski, EIA Administrator

U.S. Energy Outlook. Oil and Gas Strategies Summit May 21, 2014 New York, NY. By Adam Sieminski, EIA Administrator U.S. Energy Outlook May 21, 214 New York, NY By Adam Sieminski, EIA Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase

More information

Room XXVI Palais des Nations Geneva, Switzerland. Oil Market Outlook. Eissa B. Alzerma Oil Price Analyst Petroleum Studies Department, OPEC

Room XXVI Palais des Nations Geneva, Switzerland. Oil Market Outlook. Eissa B. Alzerma Oil Price Analyst Petroleum Studies Department, OPEC UNCTAD Multi-Year Expert Meeting on Commodities and Development 2013 Recent developments and new challenges in commodity markets, and policy options for commodity-based inclusive growth and sustainable

More information

Food, Feed & Fuel - Farmland Investing Explained. Enquirica Research

Food, Feed & Fuel - Farmland Investing Explained. Enquirica Research Food, Feed & Fuel - Farmland Investing Explained Enquirica Research Investing in Canadian Farmland Canadian farmland continues to receive favorable attention from alternative investors. We believe it stems

More information

Impact of fuel prices on machinery costs. Impact of fuel prices on farm-level costs. But, how well can prices be predicted?

Impact of fuel prices on machinery costs. Impact of fuel prices on farm-level costs. But, how well can prices be predicted? Managing High Input Costs in an Ever Changing Farm and World Economy Kevin C. Dhuyvetter -- kcd@ksu.edu -- 785-532-3527 Terry L. Kastens -- tkastens@ksu.edu -- 785-626-9 Department of Agricultural Economics

More information

Effects of Southern Hemisphere Production on Stocks, Trade and Prices

Effects of Southern Hemisphere Production on Stocks, Trade and Prices Effects of Southern Hemisphere Production on Stocks, Trade and Prices J O S E P H W. G L A U B E R U S D E P A R T M E N T O F A G R I C U L T U R E M A R I O J. M I R A N D A T H E O H I O S T A T E U

More information

Authors: Simone Pfuderer, Grant Davies, Ian Mitchell

Authors: Simone Pfuderer, Grant Davies, Ian Mitchell Annex 5 The role of demand for biofuel in the agricultural commodity price spikes of 2007/08 Annex 5 The role of demand for biofuel in the agricultural commodity price spikes of 2007/08 Authors: Simone

More information

A Conversational Guide to Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) in the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard

A Conversational Guide to Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) in the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard www.theicct.org BRIEFING MAY 2014 A Conversational Guide to Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) in the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard The U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) promotes the use of biofuels

More information

IEA-IEF-OPEC Outlook Comparison

IEA-IEF-OPEC Outlook Comparison IEA-IEF-OPEC Outlook Comparison Richard Newell, Director, Duke University Energy Initiative Gendell Professor of Energy and Environmental Economics, Nicholas School of the Environment Sixth IEA-IEF-OPEC

More information

FCStone Grain Recap October 1, 2015

FCStone Grain Recap October 1, 2015 CORN: A choppy but firm market today. Today starts the march of the private crop estimates led off with FCStone s number this afternoon. Export sales reported today showed net bookings of 748.2 tmt as

More information

HIGH-LEVEL SYMPOSIUM Excess Capacity and Structural Adjustment in the Steel Sector

HIGH-LEVEL SYMPOSIUM Excess Capacity and Structural Adjustment in the Steel Sector HIGH-LEVEL SYMPOSIUM Excess Capacity and Structural Adjustment in the Steel Sector 18 April 216, Brussels, Belgium BACKGROUND NOTE NO. 1 LATEST GLOBAL STEEL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS This background document

More information

The Changing Relationship Between the Price of Crude Oil and the Price At the Pump

The Changing Relationship Between the Price of Crude Oil and the Price At the Pump In 2007, what goes up, does not necessarily come down... May 3, 2007 The Changing Relationship Between the Price of Crude Oil and the Price At the Pump Prepared by: Tim Hamilton Petroleum Industry Consultant

More information

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/

X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 1/ X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 10.1 Overview of World Economy Latest indicators are increasingly suggesting that the significant contraction in economic activity has come to an end, notably

More information

3 rd Brazil - China Capital Markets Forum

3 rd Brazil - China Capital Markets Forum 3 rd Brazil - China Capital Markets Forum Ilan Goldfajn Chief Economist, Itaú Unibanco Partner, Itaú BBA August 30 th, 2012 In Brief World: consolidating a scenario of low growth. Slow recovery in the

More information

Short-Term Energy Outlook Market Prices and Uncertainty Report

Short-Term Energy Outlook Market Prices and Uncertainty Report February 2016 Short-Term Energy Outlook Market Prices and Uncertainty Report Crude Oil Prices: The North Sea Brent front month futures price settled at $34.46/b on February 4 $2.76 per barrel (b) below

More information

Oil markets, oil prices, and the financial crisis. Havana, October 30, 2009 Joel R. Couse, VP Market Analysis for Trading & Shipping

Oil markets, oil prices, and the financial crisis. Havana, October 30, 2009 Joel R. Couse, VP Market Analysis for Trading & Shipping Oil markets, oil prices, and the financial crisis Havana, October 3, 29 Joel R. Couse, VP Market Analysis for Trading & Shipping Oil is the World s biggest physical commodity market: over 15% of world

More information

The Fuel and Vehicle Trends Report January 31, 2014

The Fuel and Vehicle Trends Report January 31, 2014 ISSN 1948-2388 The Fuel and Vehicle Trends Report This report is a summary of the latest fuel prices and other oil industry key statistics. In addition, this report provides the latest trends in vehicle

More information

- 1 - The Canadian flax industry has a strong visual grading system designed to ensure uniform quality.

- 1 - The Canadian flax industry has a strong visual grading system designed to ensure uniform quality. - 1 - OVERVIEW OF THE FLAXSEED SECTOR IN MANITOBA Manitoba has been growing flax since the late 18s but it was not until World War II that it emerged as an alternative cash crop to wheat and other cereals.

More information

HEDGING IN THEORY AND PRACTICE

HEDGING IN THEORY AND PRACTICE HEDGING IN THEORY AND PRACTICE Ann Berg Senior Commodity Markets Development Expert USAID/FINREP-ІІ Kyiv, 2013 July 11 Maize contract (CME) 320 310 307.58 $ 11 April 308.07 $ 13 June 300 291.44 $ 1 March

More information

BIOFUELS. Market situation. Projection highlights

BIOFUELS. Market situation. Projection highlights 3. COMMODITY SNAPSHOTS BIOFUELS Market situation Cereals, oilseeds and vegetable oil prices in 2014 continued their decrease in nominal terms. This, coupled with the strong decline in crude oil prices

More information

Canadian Agricultural Outlook

Canadian Agricultural Outlook 2015 Canadian Agricultural Outlook Information contained in this report is current as of February 11, 2015. Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, represented by the Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food,

More information

A Comparative Marketing Analysis of Major Agricultural Products in the United States and Argentina

A Comparative Marketing Analysis of Major Agricultural Products in the United States and Argentina A Comparative Marketing Analysis of Major Agricultural Products in the United States and Argentina Argentina Report 2 Sergio H. Lence MATRIC Research Paper 00-MRP 2 June 2000 A Comparative Marketing Analysis

More information