The 2012 Corn Crop: Implications for Ethanol and the RFS
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1 The 2012 Corn Crop: Implications for Ethanol and the RFS Geoff Cooper Renewable Fuels Association August 14, 2012
2 Million Bushels Drought has Reduced Crop Size Potential by ~25% 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 U.S. Corn Production, Historical and 2012 Projections 10,531 13,110 14,790 12,970 12,358 10,779 Source: USDA, WASDE
3 The Myths and Spin Coming from RFS Opponents The ethanol industry won t share in demand rationing because of the RFS. The RFS is an inflexible, inelastic demand driver that will suck up 5 b. bu. of corn no matter what. The ethanol industry is insulated from the effects of high corn prices because of the RFS. Waiving the RFS would free up corn and meaningfully reduce feed prices. The RFS is driving up food prices. The RFS is causing higher gas prices.
4 The Facts: A Waiver is Not Necessary Ethanol industry is already responding to high corn prices and reducing corn consumption Production rate has decreased rapidly Ethanol exports are decreasing Blenders are drawing on robust ethanol stocks Significant flexibility is built into the RFS: Allows obligated parties to comply even in the event of ethanol production shortfall Allows corn market to adjust naturally to price signals The flexibilities in the RFS and responsiveness of the market make a waiver unnecessary and ineffective in reducing corn price
5 Ethanol Industry Response to High Corn Prices Since early June, industry has reduced corn consumption approximately 12% Approximately 1.5 billion gallons of capacity idled Roughly 26 ethanol plants idle Many other plants operating well below capacity
6 Iowa Corn Price ($/bushel) Corn Use for Ethanol (thousand bu.) Ethanol industry corn consumption $8.50 $8.00 $7.50 $7.00 $6.50 $6.00 $5.50 $5.81 down 12% from early June WEEKLY CORN CONSUMPTION BY ETHANOL PLANTS & CORN PRICE (IOWA) Corn Price, Iowa (Left Axis) Annualized corn use = 5.02 bbu. Corn Use for Ethanol (Right Axis) Annualized corn use (4-wk.) = 4.40 bbu. $ ,000 96,000 94,000 92,000 90,000 88,000 86,000 84,000 $ ,000 Source: EIA, USDA
7 6/4/2010 7/2/2010 7/30/2010 8/27/2010 9/24/ /22/ /19/ /17/2010 1/14/2011 2/11/2011 3/11/2011 4/8/2011 5/6/2011 6/3/2011 7/1/2011 7/29/2011 8/26/2011 9/23/ /21/ /18/ /16/2011 1/13/2012 2/10/2012 3/9/2012 4/6/2012 5/4/2012 6/1/2012 6/29/2012 7/27/2012 Thousand bpd Ethanol production has fallen to a 2-year low in response to higher corn prices WEEKLY ETHANOL PRODUCTION (000 bpd) 1000 Weekly Ethanol Production Implied RFS Requirements Source: EIA
8 6/4/2010 7/2/2010 7/30/2010 8/27/2010 9/24/ /22/ /19/ /17/2010 1/14/2011 2/11/2011 3/11/2011 4/8/2011 5/6/2011 6/3/2011 7/1/2011 7/29/2011 8/26/2011 9/23/ /21/ /18/ /16/2011 1/13/2012 2/10/2012 3/9/2012 4/6/2012 5/4/2012 6/1/2012 6/29/2012 7/27/2012 Million Barrels Ethanol Stocks Hit Record Levels in March and Remain Slightly Heavy WEEKLY ETHANOL STOCKS vs. 20-DAY SUPPLY Ethanol Stocks 20-Days Supply (Implied) 10.0 Source: EIA
9 MILLION GALLONS Ethanol Exports and Imports Are Adjusting 2012 US ETHANOL IMPORTS-EXPORTS US ETHANOL EXPORTS US ETHANOL IMPORTS 10 NET EXPORTS Jun-12 May-12 Apr-12 Mar-12 Feb-12 Jan-12 Source: Dept. of Commerce
10 Million Bushels Demand Rationing in 2012/13 USDA s latest projections show all end users will share in demand rationing 7, /13 Projected Corn Use (July vs. August estimates) Feed/Residual + Dist. Grains Ethanol Exports Other Food, Seed, Industrial 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Distillers Grains, 1,633 Distillers Grains, 1,500 Feed & Residual, 4,800 July WASDE Feed & Residual, 4,075 August WASDE Distillers Grains, 1,633 Ethanol (Net DG), 3,267 July WASDE Distillers Grains, 1,500 Ethanol (Net DG), 3,000 August WASDE Exports, 1,600 July WASDE Exports, 1,300 August WASDE Other FSI, 1,420 July WASDE Other FSI, 1,350 August WASDE -13% reduction -8% reduction -19% reduction -5% reduction Source: USDA, WASDE
11 Implications for 2012 RFS Compliance Requirements for 2012: 13.2 bg renewable fuel (corn/sorghum ethanol) Will we meet 2012 RFS for renewable fuel given downturn in production? YES, meeting the 2012 RFS won t be an issue Ethanol stocks & excess RINs will ensure compliance without unduly straining ethanol, corn, or RIN markets
12 Meeting the 2012 RFS Actual refiner obligations are percentages of non-exempt fuel Thus, they are somewhat lower than statutory volumes because of lower-than-projected gasoline/diesel use Renewable fuel obligation is ~13.04 bg vs bg Advanced biofuel obligation is ~1.97 bg vs. 2.0 bg If ethanol market gets tight, refiners will draw on stocks first If short on physical gallons, refiners can use excess ( banked ) RINs for compliance Refiners can meet as much as 20% of their obligation using RINs generated in the previous year Bank of excess RINs is ~ billion (equiv. of ~1 bil. bu. corn) If short on physical gallons AND RINs, refiner can carry compliance deficit forward one year
13 Outlook for RFS statutory requirements: Renewable fuel = bg 2013 Gasoline demand = 133 billion gallons (EIA) Thus, 2013 E10 blend wall = 13.3 bg Increased E15 use, but roll-out remains slow High corn prices and reduced ethanol production levels through August 2013 will likely lead to accelerated use of surplus RINs and ethanol stocks for 2013 RFS compliance
14 Million Bushels Between RFS Flexibilities and Ethanol Stocks, there is a 1.3 Billion Bushel Cushion in 2012/13 5,000 Potential Effect of RFS and Ethanol Market Flexibilities on 2012/13 Gross Corn Use for Ethanol & Co-products 4, ,500 4,000 3,500 Latest USDA Estimate (4,500) 929 3,571 3,000 2,500 2,000 Implied Corn Use Required to Meet RFS in 2012/ RVO Adjustment Use of Ethanol Stocks Use of Surplus RINs Potential 2012/13 Corn Use for RFS After Flexibilities
15 The Real Effects of an RFS Waiver Negligible reduction in corn price A waiver would have little impact on corn price because of existing RFS compliance flexibilities and market responses No discernible impact on retail food prices Only minor decrease in ethanol output in short term Demand for ethanol strong in short term irrespective of RFS (e.g., octane, RFG, export) Chilling signal to advanced biofuel investors Slows commercial roll-out of E15 Disincentive to farmers to plant corn in 2013
16 CARD Study: Waiving the RFS would not meaningfully reduce corn prices in 12/13 CARD Study Results* 2012/13 Corn Marketing Year No RFS Waiver Full RFS Waiver % Change Corn, Farm Price ($/bu) $6.06 $ % Ethanol, Plant Price ($/gal.) $2.37 $ % Ethanol Production (bg) % Ethanol RIN Price ($/RIN) $0.16 $ US Ethanol Exports (bg) % Source: Bruce A. Babcock. Preliminary Assessment of the Drought s Impacts on Crop Prices and Biofuel Production. CARD Policy Brief. July 2012 [12-PB 7] July CARD report simulates 2012/13 impacts of RFS waiver on markets Examined 500 scenarios with avg. corn yield ranging from bu/acre Full waiver results in just 4.6% cut in corn price, 4.7% cut in ethanol output The desire by livestock groups to see additional flexibility in ethanol mandates may not result in as large a drop in feed costs as hoped. CARD study the flexibility built into the RFS allowing obligated parties to carry over blending credits (RINs) from previous years significantly lowers the economic impacts of a short crop, because it introduces flexibility into the mandate. CARD study
17 Some Context on Gas Prices Gasoline prices are surging again National average retail price up 11% since July 2 Last week s avg. ($3.72/gal.) highest since mid-may RFS opponents attempting to blame drought for higher gas prices (higher corn prices ethanol prices) Ethanol increased from ~$2/gal. in late June to $2.55/gal. currently But ethanol still $ /gal. cheaper than gasoline! Real culprit is higher crude oil prices and oil refinery outages/problems (e.g., Chevron refinery fire) Impact of bg ethanol blending on gas prices in 2011: $0.84-$1.07/gallon reduction* *Source: lower=lsu, 2012; upper=card, 2012
18 E 2013P Some Context on Food Prices 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1970s = 7.8% 1980s = 4.6% U.S. Food Inflation (Year-over-Year % Change) USDA: Food price inflation is expected to be close to the historical average this year and just slightly above that next year. 1990s = 2.8% 2000s = 2.9% Source: BLS, USDA All Food CPI Ten-Year Average
19 Corn price is a trivial contributor to retail food prices Corn is but one of many agricultural commodities and ethanol is one of many price drivers for corn Source: USDA
20 What About the Rest of the World? Critics often suggest food price impacts of U.S. ethanol policy are disproportionately larger in poorer countries U.S. corn and DDGS exports feed meat animals in developed countries, not humans in developing and Third World countries U.S. ethanol policy has negligible impact on prices for food crops 09/10 impacts* = $0.03/bushel for wheat (0.6%); $0.04/cwt for rice (0.3%) U.S. ethanol industry projected to use 2.90% of global grain supply in 2012/13, the lowest in five years *Source: Babcock, Bruce. June The Impact of US Biofuel Policies on Agricultural Price Levels and Volatility. Conducted for International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (ICTSD)
21 The Corn Market is Global 2011/ /13 Change % Change Million Metric Tons % U.S % China % Brazil % EU % FSU % SE Asia % Argentina % Mexico % S. Africa % Canada % Rest of World % TOTAL % Source: USDA, August WASDE U.S. production is estimated down 12.8% from last year, but global production is only off 2.8%. The 2012 global corn crop is projected to be the second-largest on record, trailing only 2011.
22 Summary Ethanol industry has quickly responded to higher corn prices by reducing production and exports Ethanol producers WILL share in rationing demand Obligated parties have flexibility in meeting RFS requirements Ample ethanol stocks, surplus RINs will enable RFS compliance in 2012 and 2013 Waiving RFS would not meaningfully reduce corn prices or ethanol production in short term Less than 5% reduction in corn price and ethanol output If a waiver did result in significantly reduced production: Gas prices increase; production of DG and SBM falls RFS has no discernible impact on retail food prices
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