All GPM s Are Not Created Equal The Importance of Gas Chromatography

Transcription

1 All GPM s Are Not Created Equal The Importance of Gas Chromatography Gulf Coast Gas Measurement Society March 18, 2013 Anne B. Keller Midstream Energy Group 2013

2 Gas Analysis Goes Mainstream Why Wall Street Knows What GPM Means Now A Billion Dollar Midstream Question Accurate Measurement Adds Value In Unexpected Ways Technical Update New GPA Standard 2261

3 Successful Shale Drilling Leads to Dry Gas Price Declines by 2012 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Gas prices hit a decade low in 2012 due to gas oversupply Spot Price Henry Hub at $1.82 on April 23, 2012 Low for 18 month strip on NYMEX forward price curve for gas of $3.03 in April 2012 Dry gas drillers seeing much lower cash flows $/Mmbtu mos. 12 mos. 18 mos. NYMEX Futures Gas Price - Henry Hub Breakeven level for gas production Source: NYMEX Henry Hub settlements

4 NGL Values Help Offset Lower Gas Prices Wall Street Learns GPM Producers shift focus to rich gas plays to benefit from NGL sales Analysts begin using Gallons per Mcf in discussing gas quality and NGL yields Source: Magnum Hunter Q Investor Presentation

5 The Billion Dollar Midstream Question Forecasting NGL Recovery Volume Is GPM Enough? Source: ONEOK Investor Presentation

6 The Billion Dollar Midstream Question Gas Quality Drives Investment in Downstream Assets Several processing plant announcements show plans for 5+ GPM gas Transmission lines have a btu/scf limit Ethane content is reportedly high 55-65% Therefore, a lot of ethane extraction & pipeline capacity will be needed regardless of ethane prices, to meet pipeline specs But is this assumption always valid? Is the Marcellus the area with the most stranded ethane?

7 The Need for Good Data All 5 GPM Gas is Not Created Equal This Marcellus stream has 5 GPM But Ethane Can be Sold as Gas if Ethane Prices are Low Gas Composition Before Processing: After Processing - High Ethane Recovery: After Processing - Low Ethane Recovery: GPM: GPM: Recovered as NGL GPM: 3.59 Recovered as NGL Mmbtu: 1237 Mmbtu: 974 Mmbtu: 1024 Mol % CO NGL Barrel Composition: Gallons NGL Barrel Composition: Gallons Nitrogen Ethane 39% 1,862 Ethane 13% 466 Methane Propane 34% 1,752 Propane 48% 1,717 Ethane I-Butane 4% 206 I-Butane 6% 206 Propane N Butane 11% 579 N Butane 16% 579 I-Butane N Gasoline* 12% 623 N Gasoline* 17% 623 N Butane N Gasoline* Total Total NGL 100% 5,022 Total NGL 100% 3,591 *Sum of the C5 and higher carbon content molecules Typically C5, C6, C7, trace other Source composite sample Marcellus area gas, Midstream Energy Group NGL Yields calculator

8 The Need for Good Data All 5 GPM Gas is Not Created Equal This Bakken stream has 15 GPM Ethane Must be Flared to Produce Oil if No Ethane Pipeline Is Available Gas Composition Before Processing: After Processing - High Ethane Recovery: After Processing - Low Ethane Recovery: GPM: GPM: at 80% Ethane Recovery GPM: 8.82 at 20% Ethane Recovery Mmbtu: 1688 Mmbtu: 1047 Meets Pipeline Specifications Mmbtu: Meets NGL Pipeline 1225 Specifications, Mol % NOT Gas pipeline CO NGL Barrel Composition: Gallons NGL Barrel Composition: Gallons Nitrogen Ethane 43% 5,700 Ethane 16% 1,425 Methane Propane 32% 4,212 Propane 46% 4,042 Ethane I-Butane 4% 478 I-Butane 5% 478 Propane N Butane 12% 1,589 N Butane 18% 1,589 I-Butane N Gasoline* 10% 1,285 N Gasoline* 15% 1,285 N Butane N Gasoline* Total Total NGL 100% 13,264 Total NGL 100% 8,819 *Sum of the C5 and higher carbon content molecules Typically C5, C6, C7, trace other Source composite sample Bakken area gas, Midstream Energy Group NGL Yields calculator

9 Data Driven Answer: Look to Bakken for Must Recover Ethane Bakken gas is mostly oil-driven ethane is a true by-product Will Canadian ethylene producers benefit from proximity to this supply? One ethane line to Canada is under construction, but will it be big enough?

10 Gas Processing Plant Economics Measurement Helps Optimizing NGL Product Revenues A product that meets the definition of purity in the commercial world may only need to contain 90% of the actual molecule being sold Ethane can contain some methane (limit based on pressure) Propane can contain some ethane Iso-butane can contain some propane Natural Gasoline can contain some butane Similar to selling nitrogen as natural gas in the gas industry

11 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 $/Mmbtu Estimated Ethane Field Value Gas Processing Plant Economics Why Operators are Leaving More Ethane in Gas Value Gain/Loss Ethane Sale as NGL Vs Sale in Gas $12.00 $10.00 $8.00 $6.00 $4.00 $2.00 $- $(2.00) $(4.00) Rockies Louisiana River Eagle Ford Need to be able to accurately measure outgoing Btu to avoid issues downstream especially when ethane prices are low

12 Benefits of Better Chromatography Gas Plant Measurement Be a better upstream neighbor for both gas and NGL pipelines More likely to be able to manage pipeline Btu and non-methane content within tolerances when NGL (ethane) prices are low Better optimization of NGL values while remaining on-spec in the NGL pipeline system Volatile prices provide more incentives to have inline chromatography for real time control

13 Technical Update Revised Gas Plant Chromatography Standards GPA (Gas Processors Association) Standard 2261: Analysis of Natural Gas and Similar Gaseous Mixtures by Gas Chromatography (Revised 2013) Scheduled for implementation in late 2013/early 2014 currently in the balloting process with Gas Processor s Association general membership Initial standard was adopted in 1964; the new standard is revised to reflect current industry practices Redefines precision statements to reflect a recently obtained round robin precision data set which tests a broader range of samples than in the previous version

14 Sources and Contacts GPA (Gas Processors Association) Standards Technical Section B Website at gpaglobal.org Midstream Energy Group Information Systems Services Energy and Environmental Regulatory Compliance Tracking and Reporting Tools Owner s IT Rep Business Process Analysis and Scoping for RFP/RFQ Preparation Web-based training module development and deployment NGL Yields Calculator tool (online sign up for trial) Project Development Services Energy Assets: Commercial/Technical Feasibility Assessments Economic Analysis for Project Funding Preliminary costing Location of existing equipment Transaction due diligence, contract review