DEPOSIT ADMINISTRATION FUND ANNUAL REPORT 2015
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1 DEPOSIT ADMINISTRATION FUND ANNUAL REPORT 2015 generali-worldwide.com
2 INDEX 1 Global Economic back-drop & Macro Situation UK Financial Markets The GBP Deposit Administration Fund Performance comparison chart Asset distribution by sector Asset distribution by credit rating... 6 DEPOSIT ADMINISTRATION FUND ANNUAL REPORT 2015 Page 2 of 7
3 1 Global Economic back-drop & Macro Situation 2015 was the year of growth and monetary policy divergence. The recovery in the advanced economies (AEs) progressed further while China and emerging markets (EMs) experienced a slowdown in growth. On the monetary side the Fed eventually tightened, raising its policy rate at the December meeting, whilst the ECB and many other major central banks continued to ease their stance further. The US economy grew by around 2.5%, thanks to a solid expansion in personal spending and real disposable income, with the latter benefitting from; a stronger labour market, plunging energy prices and the overall good state of households balance sheet. On the corporate side, the subdued growth in capital expenditure seen in 2015 was almost totally due to the oil sector, with profitability problems in exporting firms providing an additional drag. The appreciation of the US dollar was the main cause behind the contraction in manufacturing activity, the wider effects of which, however, has not yet spilled over to the rest of the economy. Euro area growth (1.5% in 2015) was boosted by falling oil prices (positive impact on real incomes) and a weaker euro stimulating export. Last year marked a turnaround in peripheral economies, with Italian real GDP turning to growth along with improving labour market dynamics. The reduction in financial fragmentation and a more benign fiscal stance were key drivers in this contest. Greece was a notable exception. After the victory of the left-wing SYRIZA party in January, it avoided an exit from the euro area only thanks to a last-minute third bailout package in the summer. Renewed political uncertainty also weighed on Portugal and Spain, but to a much lower degree. The different stage in the economic cycle led monetary policies to diverge. In December, the Fed began the long-awaited tightening with a 25 bps rate hike while the ECB embarked on outright QE at the start of the year and then later extended its duration until March It also lowered the deposit rate even deeper into negative territory (-0.3%). Emerging Markets, on the contrary, faced a growth slowdown, but conditions varied widely across countries. Brazil is mired in recession and it is likely to face a prolonged period of economic and political instability. However, the risk of a hard landing of the Chinese economy, which attracted a lot of attention during the summer, appears to be much lower now, also thanks to a significant easing of the monetary (cuts in policy rates and reserve requirements) and currency (depreciation of the yuan against the US dollar) stance. Other Emerging Markets suffered from the plunge in commodity prices and from currency and financial market turbulence related to higher expected US rates and the stronger dollar. The 2016 outlook for Advanced Economies looks broadly similar to last year s one. US growth will remain higher than the euro area s and the divergence in monetary policy will continue. Emerging Markets will remain under pressure due to weak commodity prices and tighter financial conditions. However, a 1997-style crisis seems unlikely. DEPOSIT ADMINISTRATION FUND ANNUAL REPORT 2015 Page 3 of 7
4 2 UK Financial Markets The UK bond market started 2015 with 5 year Gilt yields at 1.16% and 10 year Gilt yields at 1.76%. They ended the year slightly higher at 1.35% and 1.96% respectively. The rise in yields resulted in the 3-7 year UK Government bonds returning 1.18% vs s 6.29%. UK Gilts rallied strongly in January as the ripple effects of the European Central Banks quantitative easting program coupled with falling domestic growth and inflation to drive Gilts yields to their lows of the year. These gains proved short lived as an upbeat quarterly inflation report, released early February, projected inflation above their 2% target at the end of their three year forecast period. The losses were accelerated towards the end of the month when Bank of England officials, including Mark Carney Central Bank Governor, testified to lawmakers that the impact of lower oil and food prices were temporary. With 10 year Gilt yields approaching 2% markets received further guidance from Mark Carney. During his speech in Sheffield he warned of a risk that low inflation will become persistent. Factors mentioned were continued foreign low inflation and the protracted effects of sterling s strength on UK consumer prices. In May the UK Conservative party achieved a surprise election win which served to calm investor sentiment that have been concerned over potential political deadlock. Gilts initially rallied as investors anticipated lower public spending and borrowing. In the summer Gilts drifted lower, in sympathy with US Treasuries, as anticipation of the timing of a US interest rate hike grew. As Global equity markets tumbled in August government bonds were initially well bid. As signs of stabilisation began to emerge the premium began to erode and yields trended higher in the fourth quarter was a volatile year for equities with the UK FTSE 100 reaching an all-time high, closing above With commodity producers struggling for most of 2015, however, the index, with its high allocation to materials, struggled to hold on to the gains and the index closed under 6250 at the end of the year. Sterling s performance was once again impacted by US dollar strength with holders of the American currency outperforming holders of the pound by 5.8%. Against the Euro however the pound out performed with owners of the Euro experiencing losses for the year of 5.1%. DEPOSIT ADMINISTRATION FUND ANNUAL REPORT 2015 Page 4 of 7
5 3 The GBP Deposit Administration Fund As detailed in the following chart, the declared rate for 2015 on the Sterling Deposit Administration fund was 1.5%. This reflects another good performance by the fund as other shorter duration assets have lower yields as can be seen below. The bonds backing the fund remain extremely high quality with over 40% of the fund backed by AAA rated securities. The modified duration of the assets backing the Deposit Administration Fund is currently at 3.1 years, from 3.0 at the start of the year, giving some protection from potential increases in bond yields. We continue to actively manage the assets within the fund to provide the best outcome possible in PERFORMANCE COMPARISON CHART year Gilt Yield Cash Yield Deposit Administration Fund Yield DEPOSIT ADMINISTRATION FUND ANNUAL REPORT 2015 Page 5 of 7
6 3.2 ASSET DISTRIBUTION BY SECTOR Government Financial Covered Energy Transport Consumer, Cyclical Cash Industrial Consumer, Non-cyclical 3.3 ASSET DISTRIBUTION BY CREDIT RATING AAA AA A DEPOSIT ADMINISTRATION FUND ANNUAL REPORT 2015 Page 6 of 7
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