Gold Focus 2016 Launch

Transcription

1 Gold Focus 2016 Launch Philip Klapwijk, Chief Consultant Toronto, 31 st March 2016

2 About Metals Focus Truly independent precious metals consultancy Experienced team of precious metals specialists, 20-strong, based in: London, Mumbai, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Shanghai, Istanbul & Madrid Not just desk-based research extensive travel programme, with regular visits to key market participants in major markets

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4 Presentation Outline Review of 2015 Economic backdrop: Largely negative for gold (US monetary policy, US dollar, commodity prices, inflation, stocks) Key Supply Factors Key Demand Factors Main physical gold markets: China and India Market & Price Outlook for 2016 Q&A

5 2015: price weakness continued over much of the year US$/oz ene-11 ene-12 ene-13 ene-14 ene-15 ene-16 Gold Price 50 DMA 100 DMA Source: Bloomberg

6 Probability of a rate hike by FOMC meeting* % ene-15 abr-15 jul-15 oct-15 December Meeting September Meeting *Percentage probability inferred by bond prices Source: Bloomberg

7 US dollar strength (high level) did not help US$/oz ene-13 jul-13 ene-14 jul-14 ene-15 jul-15 Gold Price Dollar Index Dollar Index Source: Bloomberg

8 Western investors continued equities focus weighed on gold US$/oz Index ene-13 jul-13 ene-14 jul-14 ene-15 jul-15 Gold Price S&P Source: Bloomberg

9 Net selling from institutional investors continued in 2015 Tonnes ene-13 jul-13 ene-14 jul-14 ene-15 jul-15 ene-16 ETF Comex Source: Bloomberg

10 Presentation Outline Review of 2015 Economic backdrop: Largely negative for gold (US monetary policy, US dollar, commodity prices, inflation, stocks) Key Supply Factors Key Demand Factors Main physical gold markets: China and India Market & Price Outlook for 2016 Q&A

11 Mine production reaches a record high (3,211 tonnes) Canada 157t, +4% Kazakhstan 64t, +29% Russia 269t, +1% China 460t, 0% Mexico 133t, +18% Ghana 95t, -11% Namibia 6t, +184% Indonesia 113t, +20% Source: Metals Focus

12 Global gold mine production Tonnes US$/oz Mine Production Gold Price Source: Metals Focus, Bloomberg

13 Mine costs continued to fall US$/oz Total Cash Total Production All-In Sustaining * Total Cash Cost plus Depreciation equals Total Production Cost Source: Metals Focus Gold Mine Cost Service

14 Mine costs fall the contribution from currencies US$/oz ene-10 ene-11 ene-12 ene-13 ene-14 ene-15 ene-16 Actual Gold Price (US$/oz) Rebased Gold Price* (US$/oz) The blue line represents a rebased gold price, that has been adjusted for local currency movements from the world s largest 20 gold producing countries. Local currencies have been indexed from January 2010, and weighted by the countries 2015 gold production volumes. Source: Bloomberg, Metals Focus

15 Recycling in 2015 Tonnes Index, 2010= Global Recycling Developing Countries Index Industrialised Countries Index Source: Metals Focus

16 Presentation Outline Review of 2015 Economic backdrop: Largely negative for gold (US monetary policy, US dollar, commodity prices, inflation, stocks) Key Supply Factors Key Demand Factors Main physical gold markets: China and India Market & Price Outlook for 2016 Q&A

17 Gold demand jewellery & physical investment Tonnes US$/oz Jewellery Investment Gold Price 800 Source: Metals Focus, Bloomberg

18 Jewellery consumption, 2014 vs 2015 Tonnes ,481t ,397t China/HK Middle East Russia Western* India Others 2015 *North America & Europe excluding the CIS Source: Metals Focus

19 Physical investment, 2014 vs 2015 Tonnes ,008t 1,021t China/HK Europe North America Middle East India Others 2015 Source: Metals Focus

20 Chinese and Indian gold demand* Tonnes China India *Jewellery, physical investment and industrial demand Source: Metals Focus

21 Mainland China official bullion imports Tonnes Imports to China via Hong Kong Imports directly into Mainland China (N.B. Imports from Hong Kong are net of China exports to the SAR as recorded in Hong Kong import data) Source: Various; Metals Focus

22 Chinese demand over Tonnes Jewellery Physical Investment Industrial Demand Source: Metals Focus

23 Shares of gold jewellery segments in China 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% K Plain 24K 4-9s 18K Source: Metals Focus

24 India official bullion imports Tonnes Switzerland UAE South Africa Australia Others Source: Indian Ministry of Commerce

25 Indian demand over Tonnes Jewellery Physical Investment Industrial Demand Source: Metals Focus

26 Central bank purchases remained strong Tonnes Gross Purchases Gross Sales Net Purchases Source: Metals Focus

27 Market remained in balance in 2015 Tonnes US$/oz Supply Demand Gold Price 800 Source: Metals Focus, Bloomberg

28 Presentation Outline Review of 2015 Economic backdrop: Largely negative for gold (US monetary policy, US dollar, commodity prices, inflation, stocks) Key Supply Factors Key Demand Factors Main physical gold markets: China and India Market & Price Outlook for 2016 Q&A

29 Global supply forecast for 2016 Tonnes ,348t -9 4,325t Mine Production Recycling Hedging 2016F Source: Metals Focus

30 Costs curve helps explain why production is holding up US$/oz Gold Price ($1,160/oz) US$/oz Total Cash All-In Sustaining Cumulative Gold Production (%) Source: Metals Focus Gold Mine Cost Service

31 Global demand forecast for 2016 Tonnes ,359t -35 4,269t Jewellery Industrial Investment Official Sector 2016F Source: Metals Focus. Jewellery basis fabrication series.

32 Gold market should remain broadly balanced in 2016 Tonnes F Supply Demand Source: Metals Focus

33 Changing expectations for path of US interest rates* 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0,0 ene-16 mar-16 abr-16 jun-16 jul-16 sep-16 nov-16 dic-16 17/12/ /03/2016 *inferred by bond prices Source: Bloomberg

34 USD/EUR USD/EUR exchange rate over last two years 1,45 1,40 1,35 1,30 1,25 1,20 1,15 1,10 1,05 1,00 4/1/14 7/1/14 10/1/14 1/1/15 4/1/15 7/1/15 10/1/15 1/1/16 Source: European Central Bank

35 US PCE Core Inflation (year-on-year %) US PCE Core Inflation Rate 2,0 1,9 1,8 1,7 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1,0 ene-15 mar-15 may-15 jul-15 sep-15 nov-15 ene-16 Source: FRB St Louis

36 Turnaround in institutional investors activity in 2016 Tonnes jul-14 oct-14 ene-15 abr-15 jul-15 oct-15 ene-16 ETF Comex Source: Bloomberg

37 Gold 25-Delta Risks Reversal* Difference in Implied Volatility (%) *The difference in implied volatility between 25-delta call and put options. This illustrates whether investor interest in the option market is skewed to the call side (if positive) or put side (if negative), as well as the extent of the skew. Source: Bloomberg 1 Month 1 Year

38 Metals Focus quarterly gold price forecast US$/oz ene-15 jul-15 ene-16 jul-16 Spot/Average Source: Metals Focus, Bloomberg

39 Metals Focus quarterly gold price forecast US$/oz ene-15 jul-15 ene-16 jul-16 Spot/Average High Low Source: Metals Focus, Bloomberg

40 For information about our products and services please contact: Tel: Bloomberg chat: IB MFOCUS Disclaimer & Copyright Although every effort has been made to undertake this work with care and diligence, Metals Focus Ltd cannot guarantee the accuracy of any forecasts or assumptions. Nothing contained in this presentation constitutes an offer to buy or sell securities or commodities and nor does it constitute advice in relation to the buying or selling of investments. It is published only for informational purposes. Metals Focus Ltd does not accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this presentation.